2024 · Week 7 · Oct 12, 2024 · Milan Puskar Stadium
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Win probability · WVU
modelWVU aheadISU aheadconfidence bandkey playWVU scoreISU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:10 · Oliver Straw punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Noel at the ISU 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 13:05: Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 60 yds for a TD (Kyle Konrardy KICK) — ISU win probability +7.0 pts (now 55%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:39: Carson Hansen run for 11 yds for a TD (Kyle Konrardy KICK) — ISU win probability +10.9 pts (now 69%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 2:00: Carson Hansen run for 1 yd to the ISU 36 — ISU win probability +12.7 pts (now 65%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 11:57: Carson Hansen run for 3 yds for a TD (Kyle Konrardy KICK) — ISU win probability +16.9 pts (now 85%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 4:42: Carson Hansen run for 2 yds for a TD (Kyle Konrardy KICK) — ISU win probability +7.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WVU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4ISU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 3:27ISU 4th & 12 at WVU 29, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.7% before the snapGo for it48.3%−0.423% to convertField goalTheir call48.7%58% to makePunt47.0%−1.7average punt
- Q2 14:03WVU 4th & 3 at ISU 18, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 53.9% before the snapGo for it54.0%51% to convertField goalTheir call53.8%−0.379% to makePunt50.4%−3.6average punt
- Q2 10:47WVU 4th & 13 at WVU 45, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 47.8% before the snapGo for it47.1%−0.920% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call48.0%average punt
- Q2 0:32WVU 4th & 4 at ISU 25, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.4% before the snapGo for it37.2%−1.147% to convertField goalTheir call38.3%66% to makePunt32.0%−6.2average punt
- Q3 12:11ISU 4th & 12 at ISU 34, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.5% before the snapGo for it53.9%−3.223% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call57.0%average punt
- Q3 9:10WVU 4th & 7 at WVU 44, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.2% before the snapGo for it42.2%−1.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call43.3%average punt
- Q3 5:21ISU 4th & 8 at WVU 49, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.8% before the snapGo for it60.1%−1.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call61.2%average punt
- Q4 9:23ISU 4th & 2 at WVU 25, up 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call87.0%57% to convertField goal85.7%−1.366% to makePunt79.4%−7.6average punt
- Q4 0:56ISU 4th & 3 at WVU 31, up 12Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.4%52% to convertField goal96.3%−0.154% to makePunt95.5%−0.9average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WVU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2ISU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 7:18WVU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call48.3%97% to makeGo for two48.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:05ISU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call51.1%97% to makeGo for two51.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:39ISU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call61.6%97% to makeGo for two61.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:57ISU Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.4%97% to makeGo for two82.2%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 4:42ISU Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.5%97% to makeGo for two97.3%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 1:10WVU Touchdown, down 12 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick4.8%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call4.5%−0.345% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWVUDrive 1TD15 plays · 75 yds · 7:4243% → 49%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+8
43.2%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Hudson Clement for 8 yds to the WVU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+3
43.2%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Kole Taylor for 3 yds to the ISU 43Similar
Q1 10:13
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+10
45.1%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Hudson Clement for 10 yds to the ISU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 2MISSED FG8 plays · 46 yds · 3:5152% → 49%
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+37
48.2%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 37 yds to the WVU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:18
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+5
47.2%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 5 yds to the WVU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:18
3RD & 6
OPP 23
-6
47.2%
Rocco Becht sacked by Asani Redwood for a loss of 6 yards to the WVU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 3MISSED FG11 plays · 53 yds · 4:2451% → 54%
ISUDrive 4TD3 plays · 80 yds · 0:5847% → 55%
WVUDrive 5PUNT8 plays · 20 yds · 2:1848% → 47%
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
47.7%
Iowa State Penalty, Defensive Holding (Jontez Williams) to the WVU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:05
3RD & 14
OWN 31
+17
46.7%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Traylon Ray for 17 yds to the WVU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:47
4TH & 13
OWN 45
0
47.3%
Oliver Straw punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Noel at the ISU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 6TD18 plays · 91 yds · 8:0853% → 69%
Q2 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
47.0%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylon Jackson for 4 yds to the ISU 23Similar
Q2 10:47
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+4
46.8%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 4 yds to the ISU 27Similar
Q2 10:47
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+18
47.7%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 18 yds to the ISU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:47
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+9
44.2%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 9 yds to the WVU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 7FG14 plays · 50 yds · 2:0736% → 47%
Q2 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
36.4%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Kole Taylor for 6 yds to the WVU 31Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+24
34.9%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Kole Taylor for 24 yds to the ISU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+13
37.1%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Traylon Ray for 13 yds to the ISU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
41.1%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Hudson Clement for 5 yds to the ISU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 8END OF HALF6 plays · 20 yds · 0:2653% → 56%
Q2 0:26
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+15
47.2%
BECHT, Rocco pass deep to the right incomplete intended for NOEL, Jaylin thrown to the WVU43. PENALTY WVU Pass Interference on GARNES, Ayden enforced 15 yards to the ISU45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:04
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+12
46.3%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Carson Brown for 12 yds to the WVU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-9
44.1%
Rocco Becht sacked by Sean Martin and Jaheem Joseph for a loss of 9 yards to the ISU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 9PUNT7 plays · 9 yds · 2:4958% → 56%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
41.7%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 2 yds to the ISU 27Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+7
42.3%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Gabe Burkle for 7 yds to the ISU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:11
4TH & 12
OWN 34
0
44.3%
Tyler Perkins punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Preston Fox at the WVU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 10PUNT6 plays · 20 yds · 3:0143% → 42%
ISUDrive 11PUNT10 plays · 39 yds · 3:4958% → 60%
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+15
41.7%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Benjamin Brahmer for 15 yds to the ISU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:16
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+2
37.2%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylon Jackson for 2 yds to the WVU 49Similar
Q3 5:21
4TH & 8
OPP 49
0
39.8%
Jace J. Gilbert punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Preston Fox at the WVU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 12INT6 plays · 57 yds · 3:2143% → 48%
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+8
42.6%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Kole Taylor for 8 yds to the WVU 22Similar
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
43.0%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Kole Taylor for 14 yds to the WVU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 6
OPP 29
-14
47.7%
Garrett Greene pass intercepted Jamison Patton return for 14 yds to the ISU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 13TD11 plays · 65 yds · 5:0365% → 85%
Q3 2:00
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+12
35.5%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Eli Green for 12 yds to the ISU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+34
31.9%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Eli Green for 34 yds to the WVU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
31.6%
BECHT, Rocco pass up the middle incomplete intended for BRAHMER, Benjamin thrown to the WVU0; QB hurried by JACKSON, TJ. PENALTY WVU Holding on GARNES, Ayden enforced half the distance from the goal, 3 yards from the WVU6 to the WVU3 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 14INT2 plays · 2 yds · 0:3218% → 18%
ISUDrive 15TD12 plays · 33 yds · 6:4388% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 16TD15 plays · 67 yds · 3:252% → 5%
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
2.3%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Hudson Clement for 8 yds to the WVU 41Similar
Q4 4:35
2ND & 15
OWN 45
-10
2.4%
GREENE, Garrett pass to the left complete for 22 yards to RAY, Traylon caught at the ISU40 and advanced to the ISU33 (PATTON, Jamison). PENALTY WVU Holding on MILUM, Wyatt enforced 10 yards from the WVU45 to the WVU35 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 4:35
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+8
2.4%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Hudson Clement for 8 yds to the ISU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 15
OPP 44
+21
1.8%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Rodney Gallagher III for 21 yds to the ISU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+8
2.2%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Justin Robinson for 8 yds to the ISU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
5.4%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Jahiem White for 10 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 17END OF GAME9 plays · 33 yds · 1:0798% → 99%
Q4 0:56
4TH & 3
OPP 31
+27
1.6%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 27 yds to the WVU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:57
Carson Hansen run for 3 yds for a TD (Kyle Konrardy KICK)
-16.9
KEY PLAY · Q3 2:00
Carson Hansen run for 1 yd to the ISU 36
-12.7
TD · Q2 2:39
Carson Hansen run for 11 yds for a TD (Kyle Konrardy KICK)
-10.9