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CIN

Cincinnati 19 at UCF 13

UCF
2024 · Week 7 · Oct 12, 2024 · FBC Mortgage Stadium
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Win probability · UCF
modelUCF aheadCIN aheadconfidence bandkey playUCF scoreCIN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDFGTDFGEnd of GameFG—UCF 57.0%Nathan Hawks 22 yd FG GOODAWAY 3 - HOME 0 · Q1 8:36
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Q1 8:36 · Nathan Hawks 22 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 20Home team on offense−0.8Pregame prior+6.8Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 8:26: Jacurri Brown pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 15 yds for a TD (Grant Reddick KICK) — UCF win probability +17.4 pts (now 63%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 3:06: Nathan Hawks 51 yd FG GOOD — CIN win probability +5.9 pts (now 53%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 6:32: Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Tony Johnson for 4 yds for a TD (Nathan Hawks PAT MISSED) — CIN win probability +14.2 pts (now 87%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 2:59: Grant Reddick 29 yd FG GOOD — UCF win probability +15.5 pts (now 27%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:59: Corey Kiner run for 9 yds to the CIN 34 — CIN win probability +14.1 pts (now 87%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCF made the numbers' call on 6 of 8CIN made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 12:33UCF 4th & 1 at CIN 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    58.0%−0.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    57.6%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:36CIN 4th & 4 at UCF 4, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 42.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.4%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    41.3%−1.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:56UCF 4th & 2 at CIN 39, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    56.8%−0.5
    36% to make
    Punt
    56.9%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:31UCF 4th & 12 at UCF 20, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.8%−0.7
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:52UCF 4th & 4 at CIN 4, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.8%−0.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    34.6%−5.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:29CIN 4th & 1 at UCF 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    59.8%−0.6
    38% to make
    Punt
    58.6%−1.9
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:39CIN 4th & 8 at CIN 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.7%−1.9
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:06CIN 4th & 16 at UCF 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.2%−3.2
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.4%
    49% to make
    Punt
    42.5%−1.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 1:13UCF 4th & 23 at UCF 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.2%−7.0
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.1%
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:51CIN 4th & 7 at UCF 46, up 3
    Close callPunted · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    53.7%−3.7
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    57.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:14UCF 4th & 3 at UCF 8, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.8%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.3%−1.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:25UCF 4th & 2 at CIN 49, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.3%−2.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:59UCF 4th & 6 at CIN 11, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.9%−1.3
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.2%
    87% to make
    Punt
    6.3%−6.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:58CIN 4th & 13 at CIN 37, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.5%−1.4
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1CIN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 14:56CIN Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 8:26UCF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 6:32CIN Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    87.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.7%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCFDrive 1FUMBLE
9 plays · 53 yds · 3:2358% → 58%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
57.6%
EJ Colson run for 8 yds to the UCF 33Similar
Q1 14:48
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
57.7%
RJ Harvey run for 1 yd to the UCF 34Similar
Q1 14:20
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+31
57.7%
RJ Harvey run for 31 yds to the CIN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
57.9%
RJ Harvey run for no gain to the CIN 35Similar
Q1 13:24
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+6
58.0%
Myles Montgomery run for 6 yds to the CIN 29Similar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+3
58.0%
Myles Montgomery run for 3 yds to the CIN 26Similar
Q1 12:33
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+2
58.0%
RJ Harvey run for 2 yds to the CIN 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
58.4%
EJ Colson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:37
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+2
58.4%
Johnny Richardson run for 2 yds to the CIN 22 Johnny Richardson fumbled, recovered by CIN Harris Adams H. Adams return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 2INT
6 plays · 48 yds · 1:4742% → 43%
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
57.8%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Tony Johnson for 2 yds to the CIN 24Similar
Q1 11:07
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+46
57.8%
Corey Kiner run for 46 yds to the UCF 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
57.2%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:21
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-5
57.2%
Cincinnati Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 35Similar
Q1 10:21
2ND & 15
OPP 35
+5
57.4%
Corey Kiner run for 5 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q1 9:44
3RD & 10
OPP 30
-3
57.4%
Brendan Sorsby pass intercepted Brendan Sorsby return for 3 yds to the UCF 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 3FUMBLE
1 play · -6 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-6
57.9%
EJ Colson pass complete to Johnny Richardson for a loss of 6 yards Johnny Richardson fumbled, recovered by CIN Jake Golday J. Golday return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 4FG
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4643% → 43%
Q1 9:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
57.1%
Corey Kiner run for 1 yd to the UCF 4Similar
Q1 8:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
56.8%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
57.1%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
57.0%
Nathan Hawks 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 5DOWNS
8 plays · 36 yds · 2:4057% → 57%
Q1 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
57.1%
EJ Colson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
57.1%
Jacurri Brown run for 14 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+14
57.4%
Jacurri Brown pass complete to Jacoby Jones for 14 yds to the CIN 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-10
58.0%
UCF Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UCF 47Similar
Q1 5:58
1ST & 16
OWN 47
+10
57.0%
RJ Harvey run for 10 yds to the CIN 43Similar
Q1 5:58
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+1
57.8%
RJ Harvey run for 1 yd to the CIN 42Similar
Q1 5:58
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+3
57.6%
Jacurri Brown pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 3 yds to the CIN 39Similar
Q1 5:56
4TH & 2
OPP 39
0
57.2%
Jacurri Brown pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 6TD
14 plays · 61 yds · 5:5644% → 51%
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
56.3%
Corey Kiner run for 2 yds to the CIN 41Similar
Q1 5:22
2ND & 8
OWN 41
-3
56.2%
Brendan Sorsby sacked by Isaiah Nixon for a loss of 3 yards to the CIN 38Similar
Q1 4:49
3RD & 11
OWN 38
+5
56.9%
UCF Penalty, Offsides (Nyjalik Kelly) to the CIN 43Similar
Q1 4:28
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+16
56.2%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Joe Royer for 16 yds to the UCF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
55.5%
Evan Pryor run for 1 yd to the UCF 40Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 9
OPP 40
0
55.4%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:02
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+5
55.6%
UCF Penalty, Offsides (Matthew Alexander) to the UCF 35Similar
Q1 3:02
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+6
55.3%
Brendan Sorsby run for 6 yds to the UCF 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
54.2%
Evan Pryor run for no gain to the UCF 29Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+6
54.2%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Joe Royer for 6 yds to the UCF 23Similar
Q1 0:59
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+15
54.4%
(00:59) SORSBY, Brendan pass deep to the right incomplete intended for MAYES, Jamoi thrown to the UCF0, clock 00:54. PENALTY UCF Pass Interference on JOHNSON, Chasen enforced half the distance from the goal, 15 yards to the UCF8 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 0:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
53.7%
Brendan Sorsby run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 9Similar
Q1 0:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
53.6%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 6 yds to the UCF 3Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
48.9%
Brendan Sorsby run for 3 yds for a TD (Nathan Hawks KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:2149% → 47%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
49.0%
EJ Colson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:46
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+4
48.9%
EJ Colson run for 4 yds to the UCF 26 EJ Colson fumbled, recovered by UCF EJ Colson E. Colson return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q2 14:12
3RD & 6
OWN 26
-6
48.2%
EJ Colson sacked by Jared Bartlett for a loss of 6 yards to the UCF 20Similar
Q2 13:31
4TH & 12
OWN 20
+11
47.0%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 52 yds , Jamoi Mayes returns for 11 yds to the CIN 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 8INT
10 plays · 47 yds · 4:5752% → 57%
Q2 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
47.7%
Barry Jackson Jr. run for 5 yds to the CIN 44Similar
Q2 12:33
2ND & 5
OWN 44
0
47.5%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:20
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+8
47.6%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Tony Johnson for 8 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
46.8%
Corey Kiner run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 12
50
+4
46.3%
Manny Covey run for 4 yds to the UCF 46Similar
Q2 10:15
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+15
45.9%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 15 yds to the UCF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
45.2%
Brendan Sorsby run for 5 yds to the UCF 26Similar
Q2 8:49
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+12
44.5%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Manny Covey for 12 yds to the UCF 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
42.6%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:06
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
42.6%
Brendan Sorsby pass intercepted Ladarius Tennison return for no gain to the UCF 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 9FG
14 plays · 93 yds · 6:0643% → 46%
Q2 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+1
42.9%
RJ Harvey run for 1 yd to the UCF 4Similar
Q2 7:36
2ND & 9
OWN 4
+8
42.6%
Jacurri Brown pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 8 yds to the UCF 12Similar
Q2 6:49
3RD & 1
OWN 12
+6
42.1%
Jacurri Brown run for 6 yds to the UCF 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+29
42.6%
Jacurri Brown pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 29 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
44.4%
Jacurri Brown run for 4 yds to the CIN 49Similar
Q2 5:44
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+1
44.6%
Jacurri Brown run for 1 yd to the CIN 48Similar
Q2 5:05
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+28
44.0%
Jacurri Brown run for 28 yds to the CIN 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
45.0%
Jacurri Brown pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 6 yds to the CIN 14Similar
Q2 3:48
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+2
44.8%
Cincinnati Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jordan Young) to the CIN 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
44.6%
RJ Harvey run for 4 yds to the CIN 4Similar
Q2 2:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
44.0%
RJ Harvey run for no gain to the CIN 4Similar
Q2 1:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
41.7%
Jacurri Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
45.6%
Grant Reddick 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 10MISSED FG
16 plays · 57 yds · 1:4759% → 64%
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
41.0%
Cincinnati Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the CIN 20Similar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+11
41.7%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Joe Royer for 11 yds to the CIN 31Similar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
39.6%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:17
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
40.4%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Tony Johnson for 6 yds to the CIN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
39.4%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Corey Kiner for 9 yds to the CIN 46Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+7
37.6%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Joe Royer for 7 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
37.2%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
37.5%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:38
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+9
38.2%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Joe Royer for 9 yds to the UCF 38Similar
Q2 0:29
4TH & 1
OPP 38
+1
38.1%
Brendan Sorsby run for 1 yd to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+14
36.7%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Tony Johnson for 14 yds to the UCF 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
36.1%
UCF Penalty, Offsides (Malachi Lawrence) to the UCF 18Similar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 5
OPP 18
0
36.0%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+36
35.9%
Nathan Hawks 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 2:2159% → 58%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
41.0%
Corey Kiner run for 3 yds to the CIN 28Similar
Q3 14:24
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-9
40.4%
Corey Kiner run for a loss of 9 yards to the CIN 19Similar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 16
OWN 19
-5
42.0%
Cincinnati Penalty, False Start (Gavin Gerhardt) to the CIN 14Similar
Q3 13:26
3RD & 21
OWN 14
+13
41.9%
Corey Kiner run for 13 yds to the CIN 27Similar
Q3 12:39
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
42.2%
Mason Fletcher punt for 42 yds , Trent Whittemore returns for no gain to the UCF 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 12TD
11 plays · 84 yds · 4:0642% → 63%
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-5
41.5%
UCF Penalty, False Start (Cameron Kinnie) to the UCF 11Similar
Q3 12:32
1ST & 15
OWN 11
0
41.3%
Jacurri Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:26
2ND & 15
OWN 11
+23
41.2%
Jacurri Brown pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 23 yds to the UCF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
41.8%
Jacurri Brown run for 10 yds to the UCF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
43.6%
RJ Harvey run for 8 yds to the CIN 48Similar
Q3 10:39
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+3
44.8%
RJ Harvey run for 3 yds to the CIN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
44.6%
Myles Montgomery run for 1 yd to the CIN 44Similar
Q3 9:37
2ND & 9
OPP 44
0
44.3%
Jacurri Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:27
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+24
42.8%
Jacurri Brown run for 24 yds to the CIN 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
45.8%
RJ Harvey run for 5 yds to the CIN 15Similar
Q3 8:26
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+15
63.2%
Jacurri Brown pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 15 yds for a TD (Grant Reddick KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 13FG
9 plays · 42 yds · 5:2045% → 53%
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
55.0%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Barry Jackson Jr. for 12 yds to the CIN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
53.7%
Corey Kiner run for 4 yds to the CIN 41Similar
Q3 7:26
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
51.6%
Corey Kiner run for no gain to the CIN 41Similar
Q3 6:36
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+21
52.7%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Tony Johnson for 21 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+11
50.7%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Joe Royer for 11 yds to the UCF 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
48.9%
Evan Pryor run for no gain to the UCF 27Similar
Q3 4:44
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-10
48.7%
Brendan Sorsby sacked by Jamaal Johnson for a loss of 10 yards to the UCF 37Similar
Q3 4:14
3RD & 20
OPP 37
+4
53.3%
Brendan Sorsby run for 4 yds to the UCF 33Similar
Q3 3:06
4TH & 16
OPP 33
+51
47.4%
Nathan Hawks 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:5249% → 45%
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
48.5%
Jacurri Brown pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 12 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
49.5%
RJ Harvey run for 1 yd to the UCF 38Similar
Q3 2:14
2ND & 9
OWN 38
-9
49.6%
Jacurri Brown sacked by Jake Golday for a loss of 9 yards to the UCF 29Similar
Q3 1:34
3RD & 18
OWN 29
0
45.6%
Jacurri Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:18
4TH & 18
OWN 29
-5
44.6%
UCF Penalty, False Start (Jacoby Jones) to the UCF 24Similar
Q3 1:13
4TH & 23
OWN 24
0
44.5%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jamoi Mayes at the CIN 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 3:2156% → 56%
Q3 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
43.6%
Corey Kiner run for no gain to the CIN 33Similar
Q3 0:32
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+18
44.1%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Joe Royer for 18 yds to the UCF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
40.5%
Corey Kiner run for no gain to the UCF 49Similar
Q4 14:25
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+9
40.4%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Jamoi Mayes for 9 yds to the UCF 40Similar
Q4 13:40
3RD & 1
OPP 40
-1
39.8%
Brendan Sorsby run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 41Similar
Q4 13:08
4TH & 2
OPP 41
-5
42.6%
Cincinnati Penalty, False Start (Josh Minkins) to the UCF 46Similar
Q4 12:51
4TH & 7
OPP 46
0
43.7%
Mason Fletcher punt for 45 yds, downed at the UCF 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1844% → 39%
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
44.3%
RJ Harvey run for no gain to the UCF 1Similar
Q4 12:09
2ND & 10
OWN 1
0
44.0%
Jacurri Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:51
3RD & 10
OWN 1
+7
42.1%
Jacurri Brown run for 7 yds to the UCF 8Similar
Q4 11:14
4TH & 3
OWN 8
0
39.4%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jamoi Mayes at the CIN 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 17TD
9 plays · 52 yds · 4:3063% → 87%
Q4 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
37.0%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Tony Johnson for 13 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
33.9%
Corey Kiner run for 2 yds to the UCF 37Similar
Q4 9:48
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+14
32.5%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Jamoi Mayes for 14 yds to the UCF 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
30.0%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Joe Royer for 6 yds to the UCF 17Similar
Q4 8:22
2ND & 4
OPP 17
0
29.1%
Evan Pryor run for no gain to the UCF 17Similar
Q4 7:39
3RD & 4
OPP 17
+8
30.6%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Tony Johnson for 8 yds to the UCF 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
27.7%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Jamoi Mayes for 5 yds to the UCF 4Similar
Q4 6:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
26.9%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
12.7%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Tony Johnson for 4 yds for a TD (Nathan Hawks PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 18FG
11 plays · 65 yds · 3:2816% → 27%
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
16.0%
UCF Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the UCF 19Similar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 15
OWN 19
+24
15.7%
RJ Harvey run for 24 yds to the UCF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-7
17.1%
Jacurri Brown sacked by Dontay Corleone for a loss of 7 yards to the UCF 36Similar
Q4 5:33
2ND & 17
OWN 36
+10
14.6%
Jacurri Brown pass complete to RJ Harvey for 10 yds to the UCF 46Similar
Q4 5:02
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+5
15.6%
RJ Harvey run for 5 yds to the CIN 49Similar
Q4 4:25
4TH & 2
OPP 49
+34
15.6%
Jacurri Brown pass complete to Chauncey Magwood for 34 yds to the CIN 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
19.8%
Jacurri Brown run for 2 yds to the CIN 13Similar
Q4 3:32
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+4
18.9%
Jacurri Brown run for 4 yds to the CIN 9Similar
Q4 3:09
3RD & 4
OPP 9
-2
16.6%
Jacurri Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the CIN 11Similar
Q4 2:59
4TH & 6
OPP 11
+29
27.2%
Grant Reddick 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 19PUNT
10 plays · 12 yds · 2:0187% → 94%
Q4 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
13.1%
Corey Kiner run for 9 yds to the CIN 34Similar
Q4 2:14
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+6
9.9%
Corey Kiner run for 6 yds to the CIN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
7.3%
Corey Kiner run for 7 yds to the CIN 47Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 3
OWN 47
-1
6.6%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Jamoi Mayes for a loss of 1 yard to the CIN 46Similar
Q4 1:47
3RD & 4
OWN 46
-4
7.0%
Corey Kiner run for a loss of 4 yards to the CIN 42Similar
Q4 1:02
4TH & 8
OWN 42
-5
6.1%
Cincinnati Penalty, Delay Of Game (Josh Minkins) to the CIN 37Similar
Q4 0:58
4TH & 13
OWN 37
0
6.3%
Mason Fletcher punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Trent Whittemore at the UCF 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 20END OF GAME
9 plays · 46 yds · 0:5213% → 19%
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+21
13.2%
Jacurri Brown pass complete to RJ Harvey for 21 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+22
14.8%
Jacurri Brown pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 22 yds to the CIN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
16.0%
UCF Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CIN 43Similar
Q4 0:26
1ST & 15
OPP 43
0
13.4%
Jacurri Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:19
2ND & 15
OPP 43
+8
13.2%
Jacurri Brown run for 8 yds to the CIN 35Similar
Q4 0:12
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+10
15.9%
Jacurri Brown pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 10 yds to the CIN 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
20.5%
Jacurri Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:03
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-10
19.3%
Jacurri Brown sacked by Jared Bartlett for a loss of 10 yards to the CIN 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-19.3
TD · Q3 8:26
Jacurri Brown pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 15 yds for a TD (Grant Reddick KICK)
+17.4
FG · Q4 2:59
Grant Reddick 29 yd FG GOOD
+15.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com