2024 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2024 · Mountain America Stadium
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Win probability · ASU
modelASU aheadUTAH aheadconfidence bandkey playASU scoreUTAH score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:49 · Cameron Rising pass complete to Money Parks for 4 yds to the ASU 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 2:04: Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 26 yds for a TD (Carston Kieffer PAT MISSED) — ASU win probability +4.6 pts (now 45%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:38: Jeff Sims run for 2 yds for a TD (Ian Hershey KICK) — ASU win probability +5.7 pts (now 55%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:19: Micah Bernard run for 6 yds for a TD (Cole Becker KICK) — UTAH win probability +18.8 pts (now 66%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:32: Cam Skattebo run for 50 yds for a TD (Ian Hershey KICK) — ASU win probability +25.2 pts (now 67%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 2:41: Cam Skattebo run for 47 yds for a TD (Ian Hershey KICK) — ASU win probability +25.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ASU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6UTAH made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
- Q1 9:57UTAH 4th & 9 at ASU 29, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.5% before the snapGo for it61.4%−0.131% to convertField goalTheir call61.4%58% to makePunt61.0%−0.5average punt
- Q1 7:12UTAH 4th & 4 at ASU 22, up 3Close callKicked a field goal · 61.3% before the snapGo for it61.2%47% to convertField goalTheir call61.2%−<0.172% to makePunt60.2%−1.0average punt
- Q1 3:00ASU 4th & 7 at UTAH 35, down 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call39.1%37% to convertField goal38.9%−0.245% to makePunt38.6%−0.5average punt
- Q1 1:05UTAH 4th & 9 at UTAH 26, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 57.9% before the snapGo for it57.8%−0.630% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call58.3%average punt
- Q2 10:00ASU 4th & 1 at UTAH 9, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call45.3%71% to convertField goal44.1%−1.189% to makePunt41.1%−4.2average punt
- Q2 1:48ASU 4th & 3 at ASU 33, up 7Close callPunted · 57.1% before the snapGo for it57.3%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call57.1%−0.2average punt
- Q2 0:23UTAH 4th & 11 at ASU 11, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.1% before the snapGo for it40.6%−1.922% to convertField goalTheir call42.5%87% to makePunt36.1%−6.4average punt
- Q3 14:12ASU 4th & 2 at ASU 33, up 4Close callPunted · 52.4% before the snapGo for it53.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call52.9%−0.1average punt
- Q3 10:26ASU 4th & 5 at ASU 43, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.5% before the snapGo for it57.7%−0.641% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call58.3%average punt
- Q4 10:49UTAH 4th & 8 at ASU 24, down 4Numbers favored field goal by 1.3 ptsWent for it · 37.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call35.6%−1.333% to convertField goal37.0%68% to makePunt25.1%−11.8average punt
- Q4 9:00ASU 4th & 1 at ASU 29, up 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call70.2%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt64.5%−5.7average punt
- Q4 5:42UTAH 4th & 19 at ASU 28, down 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.6% before the snapGo for it24.0%−6.511% to convertField goalTheir call30.5%60% to makePunt18.6%−11.9average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ASU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UTAH made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 2:04ASU Touchdown, tied before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call41.4%97% to makeGo for two41.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:38ASU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call51.6%97% to makeGo for two51.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:19UTAH Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call58.9%97% to makeGo for two58.7%−0.345% to convert
- Q3 1:32ASU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call62.6%97% to makeGo for two62.4%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 2:41ASU Touchdown, up 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.7%97% to makeGo for two90.0%−0.745% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUTAHDrive 1FG13 plays · 46 yds · 4:5961% → 60%
Q1 14:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
38.9%
Micah Bernard run for 6 yds to the UTAH 31 for a 1ST down Arizona State Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the UTAH 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
39.3%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Micah Bernard for 9 yds to the ASU 37Similar
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-2
39.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ASU 32 TEAM fumbled, recovered by UTAH Charlie VincentSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 2INT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5740% → 40%
UTAHDrive 3FG4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3161% → 61%
Q1 7:50
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+2
39.9%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Money Parks for 2 yds to the ASU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 4TD13 plays · 81 yds · 5:0140% → 45%
Q1 6:12
3RD & 5
OWN 24
+27
39.3%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Xavier Guillory for 27 yds to the UTAH 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 11
OPP 39
+9
41.1%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 9 yds to the UTAH 30Similar
Q1 3:21
3RD & 2
OPP 30
-5
41.2%
Sam Leavitt sacked by Johnathan Hall for a loss of 5 yards to the UTAH 35Similar
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
45.0%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 26 yds for a TD (Carston Kieffer PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5658% → 56%
Q1 1:05
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
43.7%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Melquan Stovall at the ASU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 6TD15 plays · 72 yds · 7:1744% → 55%
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+14
43.8%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 14 yds to the ASU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+16
45.9%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Cam Skattebo for 16 yds to the UTAH 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+7
46.8%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to DeCarlos Brooks for 7 yds to the UTAH 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 7INT8 plays · 52 yds · 4:0347% → 48%
Q2 7:02
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+13
54.5%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Micah Bernard for 13 yds to the UTAH 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+15
52.0%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 15 yds to the ASU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-5
51.8%
Cameron Rising pass intercepted Caleb McCullough return for 5 yds to the ASU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 8PUNT7 plays · 19 yds · 2:3256% → 56%
UTAHDrive 9FG15 plays · 60 yds · 1:2042% → 44%
Q2 1:33
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+13
58.6%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Micah Bernard for 13 yds to the UTAH 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+10
57.5%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Mycah Pittman for 10 yds to the ASU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+35
57.3%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Dorian Singer for 35 yds to the ASU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
52.9%
Arizona State Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (7 Yards) to the ASU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-6
52.9%
Cameron Rising sacked by Prince Dorbah for a loss of 6 yards to the ASU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 10END OF HALF2 plays · -5 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:4355% → 53%
Q3 14:12
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+42
53.4%
Kanyon Floyd punt for 32 yds, downed at the UTAH 35 Utah Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the UTAH 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 12INT4 plays · 23 yds · 2:0246% → 46%
Q3 11:58
3RD & 10
OWN 48
0
54.0%
Cameron Rising pass intercepted Keith Abney II return for no gain to the ASU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2457% → 58%
UTAHDrive 14TD14 plays · 79 yds · 6:5642% → 66%
Q3 8:48
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+6
58.7%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 6 yds to the UTAH 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+23
58.1%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 23 yds to the ASU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 12
OPP 44
+17
57.1%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Dorian Singer for 17 yds to the ASU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 15TD6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4741% → 67%
Q3 3:08
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+22
40.0%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 22 yds to the ASU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
44.2%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Cam Skattebo for no gain to the ASU 42Similar
Q3 1:53
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+8
42.2%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 16DOWNS12 plays · 55 yds · 5:3839% → 38%
Q3 0:20
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+13
64.3%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Money Parks for 13 yds to the UTAH 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+16
57.4%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Dorian Singer for 16 yds to the ASU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
3RD & 15
OPP 31
+7
62.4%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Micah Bernard for 7 yds to the ASU 24Similar
Q4 10:49
4TH & 8
OPP 24
+4
61.7%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Money Parks for 4 yds to the ASU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 17DOWNS4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3868% → 67%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 18FG7 plays · 2 yds · 3:0344% → 39%
ASUDrive 19TD6 plays · 75 yds · 2:5162% → 95%
Q4 4:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+21
61.6%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Cam Skattebo for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 20INT7 plays · 7 yds · 0:409% → 8%
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
90.8%
Cameron Rising sacked by Zac Swanson and Jeff Clark for a loss of 7 yards to the UTAH 18Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+19
91.2%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Micah Bernard for 19 yds to the UTAH 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 15
OWN 32
-6
91.9%
Cameron Rising pass intercepted Caleb McCullough return for 6 yds to the UTAH 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 21Uncategorized8 plays · -19 yds · 1:1296% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:41
Cam Skattebo run for 47 yds for a TD (Ian Hershey KICK)
+25.3
TD · Q3 1:32
Cam Skattebo run for 50 yds for a TD (Ian Hershey KICK)
+25.2
TD · Q3 3:19
Micah Bernard run for 6 yds for a TD (Cole Becker KICK)
-18.8