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HOU

Houston 30 at TCU 19

TCU
2024 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2024 · Amon G. Carter Stadium
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Win probability · TCU
modelTCU aheadHOU aheadconfidence bandkey playTCU scoreHOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:37 · Ethan Craw punt for 56 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+40.5+20.30−20.3−40.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 84Pregame prior+17.8Home team on offense−19.0Score differential−11.5Garbage-time factor−5.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:18: Josh Hoover pass complete to Savion Williams for 21 yds for a TD (Kyle Lemmermann PAT MISSED) — TCU win probability +7.2 pts (now 61%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:48: Zeon Chriss 71 Yd Run (Jack Martin Kick) — HOU win probability +18.4 pts (now 60%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:27: Jeremy Payne run for 2 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — TCU win probability +14.5 pts (now 43%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 13:35: Jack Martin 28 yd FG GOOD — HOU win probability +5.7 pts (now 86%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:25: Josh Hoover pass complete to Jack Bech for 29 yds for a TD (Kyle Lemmermann KICK) — TCU win probability +18.0 pts (now 31%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TCU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6HOU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 11:37HOU 4th & 3 at TCU 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.9%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    14.8%−0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    14.8%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:41TCU 4th & 2 at HOU 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    84.6%−0.2
    28% to make
    Punt
    84.7%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 9:32HOU 4th & 18 at HOU 33, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%−3.6
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:29TCU 4th & 18 at TCU 21, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.8%−2.8
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:55HOU 4th & 11 at TCU 16, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.0%−1.5
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.5%
    81% to make
    Punt
    33.9%−7.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:49TCU 4th & 4 at TCU 31, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.9%−1.7
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.7%
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:37TCU 4th & 15 at TCU 44, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.1%−2.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:39HOU 4th & 5 at HOU 25, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.8%−1.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:18TCU 4th & 2 at HOU 43, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    26.4%−4.3
    28% to make
    Punt
    27.9%−2.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:43HOU 4th & 7 at HOU 28, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.6%−2.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.9%
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:35HOU 4th & 9 at TCU 10, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.7%−2.0
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.7%
    88% to make
    Punt
    62.7%−13.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:26TCU 4th & 8 at HOU 42, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.7%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    11.6%−1.1
    30% to make
    Punt
    12.1%−0.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:58HOU 4th & 5 at TCU 9, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.7%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.7%
    89% to make
    Punt
    89.9%−3.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TCU made the numbers' call on 1 of 3HOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 5:29HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:38HOU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:18TCU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    60.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:48HOU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:27TCU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    38.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    38.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:25TCU Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.3%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HOUDrive 1DOWNS
8 plays · 39 yds · 3:1814% → 15%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
85.8%
Stacy Sneed run for 6 yds to the HOU 31Similar
Q1 14:28
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+7
85.7%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Mekhi Mews for 7 yds to the HOU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+19
85.5%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Stephon Johnson for 19 yds to the TCU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
85.3%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Stephon Johnson for no gain to the TCU 43Similar
Q1 12:59
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+4
85.1%
Mekhi Mews run for 4 yds to the TCU 39Similar
Q1 12:15
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+3
84.9%
Re'Shaun Sanford II run for 3 yds to the TCU 36Similar
Q1 11:37
4TH & 3
OPP 36
0
84.8%
Zeon Chriss pass incomplete to Devan WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 2DOWNS
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:4985% → 85%
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
84.9%
Josh Hoover pass complete to JP Richardson for 12 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
84.9%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jeremy Payne for 6 yds to the HOU 45Similar
Q1 10:31
2ND & 4
OPP 45
-1
84.9%
Jeremy Payne run for a loss of 1 yard to the HOU 46Similar
Q1 9:57
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+3
84.7%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jeremy Payne for 3 yds to the HOU 43Similar
Q1 9:41
4TH & 2
OPP 43
+1
84.5%
Josh Hoover run for 1 yd to the HOU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 3TD
8 plays · 58 yds · 4:0416% → 20%
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+23
84.0%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Maliq Carr for 23 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
83.3%
Zeon Chriss run for 5 yds to the TCU 30 Zeon Chriss fumbled, forced by Namdi Obiazor, recovered by HOU Zeon ChrissSimilar
Q1 8:01
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+4
83.1%
J'Marion Burnette run for 4 yds to the TCU 26Similar
Q1 7:28
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+13
83.0%
Stacy Sneed run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 13 Stacy Sneed fumbled, forced by Abe Camara, recovered by HOU Stacy Sneed for a 1ST down TCU Penalty, Personal Foul (Abe Camara) to the TCU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
82.5%
J'Marion Burnette run for 5 yds to the TCU 8Similar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 5
OPP 8
0
82.2%
J'Marion Burnette run for no gain to the TCU 8Similar
Q1 5:29
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+8
79.7%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Devan Williams for 8 yds for a TD (Jack Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 4INT
7 plays · 36 yds · 2:1780% → 80%
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
80.2%
Cam Cook run for 11 yds to the TCU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
80.1%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jack Bech for 11 yds to the TCU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
80.3%
Cam Cook run for 6 yds to the HOU 47Similar
Q1 3:47
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+8
80.2%
Josh Hoover pass complete to JP Richardson for 8 yds to the HOU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
79.8%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to JP RichardsonSimilar
Q1 3:05
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-14
79.7%
Josh Hoover pass intercepted A.J. Haulcy return for 14 yds to the HOU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 5TD
8 plays · 62 yds · 4:2122% → 32%
Q1 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
77.9%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Stacy Sneed for 8 yds to the HOU 46Similar
Q1 2:25
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+1
77.3%
Stacy Sneed run for 1 yd to the HOU 47Similar
Q1 1:49
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+4
76.8%
J'Marion Burnette run for 4 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
76.1%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Jonah Wilson for 9 yds to the TCU 40Similar
Q1 0:41
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+18
75.4%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 18 yds to the TCU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
74.6%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to JayShon Ridgle for 4 yds to the TCU 18Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+16
74.0%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Maliq Carr for 16 yds to the TCU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
68.4%
Re'Shaun Sanford II run for 2 yds for a TD (Jack Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 6INT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:0270% → 68%
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
70.0%
Cam Cook run for 2 yds to the TCU 27Similar
Q2 13:13
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-7
69.6%
Josh Hoover sacked by Keith Cooper Jr. and Ajani Carter for a loss of 7 yards to the TCU 20Similar
Q2 12:31
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+7
68.2%
Josh Hoover pass intercepted A.J. Haulcy return for a loss of 7 yards to the HOU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 2:5332% → 36%
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
67.7%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Stephon Johnson for 9 yds to the HOU 37Similar
Q2 11:51
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+4
66.2%
Zeon Chriss run for 4 yds to the HOU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
64.8%
Zeon Chriss run for a loss of 2 yards to the HOU 39Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 12
OWN 39
-6
64.3%
Zeon Chriss sacked by Cooper McDonald for a loss of 6 yards to the HOU 33 Zeon Chriss fumbled, recovered by HOU Jake Wiley , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 9:40
3RD & 18
OWN 33
0
63.9%
Zeon Chriss pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:32
4TH & 18
OWN 33
0
64.0%
Liam Dougherty punt for 38 yds, fair catch by JP Richardson at the TCU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:5863% → 62%
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-8
63.4%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jordyn Bailey for a loss of 8 yards to the TCU 21Similar
Q2 8:43
2ND & 18
OWN 21
0
62.1%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Jack BechSimilar
Q2 8:38
3RD & 18
OWN 21
0
61.7%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Cam CookSimilar
Q2 8:29
4TH & 18
OWN 21
0
61.5%
Ethan Craw punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the HOU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 9FG
7 plays · 36 yds · 3:2740% → 49%
Q2 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
60.1%
DJ Butler run for 5 yds to the TCU 47Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+20
59.4%
Zeon Chriss run for 20 yds to the TCU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+12
58.0%
Stacy Sneed run for 12 yds to the TCU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
57.0%
Zeon Chriss pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+2
56.3%
Zeon Chriss run for 2 yds to the TCU 13Similar
Q2 5:33
3RD & 8
OPP 13
-3
55.9%
Zeon Chriss sacked by Namdi Obiazor for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 16Similar
Q2 4:55
4TH & 11
OPP 16
+34
50.7%
Jack Martin 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 10TD
8 plays · 77 yds · 2:2855% → 61%
Q2 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
54.7%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Savion WilliamsSimilar
Q2 4:37
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+19
53.7%
Cam Cook run for 19 yds to the TCU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+25
55.3%
Josh Hoover pass complete to JP Richardson for 25 yds to the HOU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
55.5%
Cam Cook run for 1 yd to the HOU 32Similar
Q2 3:16
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+11
54.7%
Cam Cook run for 11 yds to the HOU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
54.1%
Cam Cook run for no gain to the HOU 21Similar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+21
61.3%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Savion Williams for 21 yds for a TD (Kyle Lemmermann PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 11TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:2542% → 60%
Q2 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
58.1%
J'Marion Burnette run for 4 yds to the HOU 29Similar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+71
39.7%
Zeon Chriss 71 Yd Run (Jack Martin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:5745% → 43%
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
45.1%
Cam Cook run for a loss of 4 yards to the TCU 21Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+10
43.5%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jack Bech for 10 yds to the TCU 31Similar
Q2 0:57
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
43.9%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Jack BechSimilar
Q2 0:49
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
43.2%
Ethan Craw punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Mekhi Mews at the HOU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -6 yds · 0:4563% → 66%
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
36.8%
J'Marion Burnette run for a loss of 1 yard to the HOU 23Similar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 11
OWN 23
-5
34.5%
Houston Penalty, Delay of Game (TEAM) to the HOU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 3:1141% → 35%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
40.6%
Josh Hoover pass complete to JP Richardson for 10 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
40.5%
Josh Hoover pass complete to JP Richardson for 9 yds to the TCU 44Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 1
OWN 44
-10
42.1%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jack Bech for 5 yds to the TCU 49 TCU Penalty, Personal Foul (Jack Bech) to the TCU 34Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+15
37.7%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Blake Nowell for 15 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
39.1%
Josh Hoover pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:24
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+3
37.4%
Cam Cook run for 3 yds to the HOU 48Similar
Q3 12:15
3RD & 7
OPP 48
-8
37.4%
Josh Hoover sacked by Michael Batton for a loss of 8 yards to the TCU 44Similar
Q3 11:37
4TH & 15
OWN 44
0
34.5%
Ethan Craw punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:5169% → 72%
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
30.8%
Zeon Chriss run for 2 yds to the HOU 22Similar
Q3 10:52
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
29.8%
DJ Butler run for no gain to the HOU 22Similar
Q3 10:13
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+3
29.1%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 3 yds to the HOU 25Similar
Q3 9:39
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
28.2%
Liam Dougherty punt for 39 yds, fair catch by JP Richardson at the TCU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 16TD
12 plays · 64 yds · 4:0532% → 43%
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
31.6%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Cam CookSimilar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+13
30.6%
Cam Cook run for 13 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
31.7%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Jack BechSimilar
Q3 8:36
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+5
31.2%
Cam Cook run for 5 yds to the HOU 46Similar
Q3 7:59
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+3
30.8%
Josh Hoover run for 3 yds to the HOU 43Similar
Q3 7:18
4TH & 2
OPP 43
+6
29.5%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Savion Williams for 6 yds to the HOU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
29.2%
Hoover, Josh pass incomplete to Williams, Savion, PENALTY HOUSTON pass interference (Carter, Ajani) 15 yards to the HOUSTON22, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TCU.Similar
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
30.1%
Cam Cook run for 5 yds to the HOU 17Similar
Q3 6:17
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+5
29.3%
Josh Hoover pass complete to JP Richardson for 5 yds to the HOU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+10
28.4%
Hoover, Josh pass incomplete to Williams, Savion, PENALTY HOUSTON pass interference (McCutchin Sr., Latrell) 10 yards to the HOUSTON2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TCU.Similar
Q3 5:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
42.9%
Jeremy Payne run for 2 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:1966% → 67%
Q3 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
34.0%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Stacy Sneed for no gain to the HOU 25Similar
Q3 4:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
32.8%
Zeon Chriss sacked by Zachary Chapman for a loss of 5 yards to the HOU 20Similar
Q3 4:19
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+8
33.3%
Donovan Smith run for 8 yds to the HOU 28Similar
Q3 3:43
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
32.7%
Liam Dougherty punt for 47 yds , JP Richardson returns for no gain to the TCU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 18FUMBLE
1 play · 10 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
34.6%
Josh Hoover pass complete to JP Richardson for 10 yds JP Richardson fumbled, forced by Hershey McLaurin, recovered by HOU Carlos AllenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 19FG
9 plays · 25 yds · 4:5374% → 86%
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
26.2%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Jayden York for 4 yds to the TCU 31Similar
Q3 2:49
2ND & 6
OPP 31
-2
25.1%
Joseph Manjack IV run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 33Similar
Q3 2:04
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+9
24.9%
Zeon Chriss run for 9 yds to the TCU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+13
23.3%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Jonah Wilson for 13 yds to the TCU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+7
21.2%
J'Marion Burnette run for 7 yds to the TCU 4Similar
Q3 0:14
2ND & 3
OPP 4
-5
19.9%
Houston Penalty, False Start (Peyton Dunn) to the TCU 9Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 8
OPP 9
0
19.6%
J'Marion Burnette run for no gain to the TCU 9Similar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 8
OPP 9
-1
19.7%
J'Marion Burnette run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 10Similar
Q4 13:35
4TH & 9
OPP 10
+28
14.0%
Jack Martin 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 20TD
12 plays · 71 yds · 3:5719% → 31%
Q4 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
19.3%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jordyn Bailey for 7 yds to the TCU 36Similar
Q4 12:41
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+2
19.3%
Cam Cook run for 2 yds to the TCU 38Similar
Q4 11:55
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+3
17.6%
Cam Cook run for 3 yds to the TCU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
17.1%
Hoover, Josh rush for no gain to the TCU41, PENALTY HOUSTON face mask (Oliver, Jaise) 15 yards to the HOUSTON44, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TCU.Similar
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
17.6%
Jeremy Payne run for 2 yds to the HOU 42Similar
Q4 10:38
2ND & 8
OPP 42
0
13.6%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Jordyn BaileySimilar
Q4 10:33
3RD & 8
OPP 42
0
13.2%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Jack BechSimilar
Q4 10:26
4TH & 8
OPP 42
+9
12.9%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Savion Williams for 9 yds to the HOU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
13.6%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Jordyn BaileySimilar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+4
13.3%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Savion Williams for 4 yds to the HOU 29Similar
Q4 9:25
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+29
31.3%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jack Bech for 29 yds for a TD (Kyle Lemmermann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 21FG
18 plays · 66 yds · 7:2078% → 96%
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
21.8%
Re'Shaun Sanford II run for 14 yds to the HOU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
18.7%
Re'Shaun Sanford II run for 4 yds to the HOU 43Similar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+6
15.7%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Devan Williams for 6 yds to the HOU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
14.6%
Re'Shaun Sanford II run for 15 yds to the TCU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
11.8%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Devan Williams for 7 yds to the TCU 29Similar
Q4 6:22
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+2
10.2%
J'Marion Burnette run for 2 yds to the TCU 27Similar
Q4 5:44
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+2
9.8%
J'Marion Burnette run for 2 yds to the TCU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
8.7%
Re'Shaun Sanford II run for no gain to the TCU 25Similar
Q4 4:18
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+1
8.4%
Donovan Smith run for 1 yd to the TCU 24Similar
Q4 3:37
3RD & 9
OPP 24
+10
8.1%
Donovan Smith run for 10 yds to the TCU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
5.6%
J'Marion Burnette run for no gain to the TCU 14Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
5.4%
Donovan Smith run for no gain to the TCU 14Similar
Q4 2:42
3RD & 10
OPP 14
+5
5.4%
Donovan Smith run for 5 yds to the TCU 9Similar
Q4 1:58
4TH & 5
OPP 9
+27
3.8%
Jack Martin 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 22FUMBLE
7 plays · 23 yds · 1:003% → 4%
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
3.0%
Hoover, Josh pass incomplete to Richardson, JP, PENALTY TCU holding (Taylor-Whitfield, Ben) 10 yards to the TCU15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:39
1ST & 20
OWN 15
0
2.9%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Jack BechSimilar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+12
2.8%
Josh Hoover pass complete to JP Richardson for 12 yds to the TCU 27Similar
Q4 1:11
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+17
2.7%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Blake Nowell for 17 yds to the TCU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
3.1%
Josh Hoover pass complete to JP Richardson for 7 yds to the HOU 49Similar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 3
OPP 49
-3
3.6%
Josh Hoover sacked by Zykeius Strong for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 48 Josh Hoover fumbled, recovered by HOU Michael Batton , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 23END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:3497% → 97%
Q4 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
3.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 0:10
2ND & 12
50
-1
3.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the HOU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:48
Zeon Chriss 71 Yd Run (Jack Martin Kick)
-18.4
TD · Q4 9:25
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jack Bech for 29 yds for a TD (Kyle Lemmermann KICK)
+18
TD · Q3 5:27
Jeremy Payne run for 2 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+14.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com