2024 · Week 6 · Oct 5, 2024 · Boone Pickens Stadium
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Win probability · OKST
modelOKST aheadWVU aheadconfidence bandkey playOKST scoreWVU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 0:58 · Garrett Greene run for 4 yds to the OKST 28
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 0:55: Nicco Marchiol pass complete to Traylon Ray for 10 yds for a TD (Michael Hayes II KICK) — WVU win probability +4.4 pts (now 52%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:16: Jahiem White run for 10 yds for a TD (Michael Hayes II KICK) — WVU win probability +12.4 pts (now 67%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:55: Garrett Greene run for 15 yds for a TD (Michael Hayes II KICK) — WVU win probability +9.1 pts (now 80%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:54: Alan Bowman pass complete to Rashod Owens for 8 yds for a TD (Logan Ward KICK) — OKST win probability +8.3 pts (now 32%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:28: CJ Donaldson Jr. run for 15 yds for a TD (Michael Hayes II KICK) — WVU win probability +7.4 pts (now 88%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OKST made the numbers' call on 6 of 7WVU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 11:11WVU 4th & 2 at OKST 19, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call41.9%56% to convertField goal41.9%−0.177% to makePunt41.4%−0.6average punt
- Q1 9:20WVU 4th & 13 at OKST 20, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.5% before the snapGo for it41.2%−0.219% to convertField goalTheir call41.4%75% to makePunt40.7%−0.8average punt
- Q1 5:49OKST 4th & 14 at OKST 30, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.4% before the snapGo for it56.1%−0.518% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call56.6%average punt
- Q1 5:49OKST 4th & 14 at OKST 30, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.4% before the snapGo for it56.1%−0.518% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call56.6%average punt
- Q2 14:45OKST 4th & 10 at OKST 25, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.8% before the snapGo for it48.6%−0.628% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call49.2%average punt
- Q2 3:51OKST 4th & 7 at WVU 43, down 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call27.1%37% to convertField goal26.0%−1.128% to makePunt26.4%−0.7average punt
- Q3 13:32OKST 4th & 5 at OKST 27, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.9% before the snapGo for it18.2%−0.840% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.1%average punt
- Q3 10:12WVU 4th & 2 at OKST 28, up 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call90.0%57% to convertField goal89.2%−0.960% to makePunt85.5%−4.5average punt
- Q3 7:33OKST 4th & 17 at WVU 43, down 24Numbers favored punt by 1.5 ptsWent for it · 8.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call8.1%−1.515% to convertField goal8.8%−0.928% to makePunt9.7%average punt
- Q3 3:41WVU 4th & 2 at OKST 41, up 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call95.1%57% to convertField goal94.3%−0.832% to makePunt94.5%−0.6average punt
- Q3 0:58WVU 4th & 5 at OKST 32, up 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call95.8%42% to convertField goal95.8%−0.151% to makePunt95.5%−0.3average punt
- Q4 14:03OKST 4th & 9 at OKST 40, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snapGo for it3.4%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.6%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OKST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2WVU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q1 0:55WVU Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call49.5%97% to makeGo for two49.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:16WVU Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call59.5%97% to makeGo for two59.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:55WVU Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call74.5%97% to makeGo for two74.3%−0.245% to convert
- Q2 1:54OKST Touchdown, down 18 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call25.3%97% to makeGo for two25.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:28WVU Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call80.7%97% to makeGo for two80.5%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 9:01WVU Touchdown, up 30 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%−<0.197% to makeGo for two99.7%45% to convert
- Q4 8:30OKST Touchdown, down 25 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call1.2%97% to makeGo for two0.9%−0.345% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWVUDrive 1FG14 plays · 55 yds · 5:3345% → 45%
Q1 14:25
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+31
55.0%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Treylan Davis for 31 yds to the OKST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-14
54.8%
(12:50) Shotgun Greene,Garrett pass complete short right to Clement,Hudson caught at OSU13, for 14 yards to the OSU13 (Black,Korie) PENALTY WVU Illegal Touch-Pass (Clement,Hudson). NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 2PUNT10 plays · 6 yds · 3:1655% → 54%
Q1 6:56
2ND & 2
OWN 42
-10
55.6%
(06:56) No Huddle-Shotgun Gordon II,Ollie rush middle for 3 yards gain to the OSU45 (Trotter,Josiah) PENALTY OSU Holding (Cooper,Dalton) 10 yards from OSU42 to OSU32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:49
4TH & 14
OWN 30
+6
53.6%
Wes Pahl punt for 41 yds , Jordan Jackson returns for 6 yds to the WVU 35Similar
Q1 5:49
4TH & 14
OWN 30
+6
53.6%
Wes Pahl punt for 41 yds , Preston Fox returns for 6 yds to the WVU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 3TD9 plays · 65 yds · 4:4545% → 52%
Q1 5:03
2ND & 9
OWN 36
-2
54.5%
Garrett Greene sacked by Jeff Roberson for a loss of 2 yards to the WVU 34Similar
Q1 4:33
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+12
55.1%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Hudson Clement for 12 yds to the WVU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:55
3RD & 8
OPP 10
+10
48.0%
Nicco Marchiol pass complete to Traylon Ray for 10 yds for a TD (Michael Hayes II KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 1:0248% → 46%
WVUDrive 5TD6 plays · 63 yds · 3:1852% → 67%
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-2
46.8%
Nicco Marchiol sacked by Kendal Daniels for a loss of 2 yards to the OKST 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 6INT5 plays · 16 yds · 1:1539% → 38%
WVUDrive 7TD8 plays · 87 yds · 3:4167% → 80%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 8TD13 plays · 75 yds · 3:4926% → 32%
Q2 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
26.6%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan Presley for 15 yds to the WVU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:51
4TH & 7
OPP 43
+25
25.6%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan Presley for 25 yds to the WVU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
26.1%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ollie Gordon II for 7 yds to the WVU 11Similar
Q2 1:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
31.5%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Rashod Owens for 8 yds for a TD (Logan Ward KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 9TD11 plays · 75 yds · 1:2077% → 88%
OKSTDrive 10END OF HALF5 plays · 8 yds · 0:2218% → 17%
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+10
17.8%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Da'Wain Lofton for 10 yds to the OKST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1718% → 17%
Q3 13:46
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+2
17.2%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ollie Gordon II for 2 yds to the OKST 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 12DOWNS7 plays · 45 yds · 3:0887% → 91%
Q3 12:06
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+15
9.9%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Traylon Ray for 15 yds to the OKST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 13INT7 plays · 30 yds · 2:3210% → 8%
Q3 9:42
2ND & 7
OWN 30
-7
10.0%
Alan Bowman sacked by Hammond Russell IV for a loss of 7 yards to the OKST 23Similar
Q3 8:58
3RD & 14
OWN 23
+41
8.9%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Da'Wain Lofton for 41 yds to the WVU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:28
2ND & 10
OPP 36
-8
9.6%
Alan Bowman sacked by Fatorma Mulbah for a loss of 8 yards to the WVU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 14DOWNS13 plays · 32 yds · 6:2594% → 97%
Q3 5:52
3RD & 11
OWN 39
+12
5.3%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Traylon Ray for 12 yds to the OKST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:01
3RD & 14
OWN 47
+12
4.5%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Rodney Gallagher III for 12 yds to the OKST 41Similar
Q3 3:41
4TH & 2
OPP 41
+4
4.8%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Kole Taylor for 4 yds to the OKST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 15PUNT6 plays · 12 yds · 1:475% → 3%
Q3 0:19
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+11
4.2%
Garret Rangel pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 11 yds to the OKST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:41
3RD & 8
OWN 41
-1
4.1%
Garret Rangel pass complete to Josh Ford for a loss of 1 yard to the OKST 40Similar
Q4 14:03
4TH & 9
OWN 40
0
3.4%
Hudson Kaak punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Preston Fox at the WVU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 16TD8 plays · 88 yds · 4:4998% → 100%
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+40
1.3%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Hudson Clement for 40 yds to the OKST 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 17TD3 plays · 65 yds · 0:170% → 2%
Q4 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+22
0.3%
Garret Rangel pass complete to Da'Wain Lofton for 22 yds to the WVU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
2.4%
Garret Rangel pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 43 yds for a TD West Virginia Penalty, Defensive Offside (Ayden Garnes) declined (Logan Ward KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 18Uncategorized17 plays · 63 yds · 8:2299% → 100%
Q4 3:53
4TH & 8
50
+15
0.6%
(03:53) Straw,Oliver punt 42 yards to the OSU08, out of bounds at OSU08 PENALTY OSU Roughing The Kicker (Hylton,Kobe) 15 yards from OSU50 to OSU35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
0.3%
(01:56) Shotgun Anderson,Jaylen rush left for 4 yards gain to the OSU18 (Kabongo,David) PENALTY OSU Offside (Oates,Iman) 5 yards from OSU22 to OSU17. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 11:16
Jahiem White run for 10 yds for a TD (Michael Hayes II KICK)
-12.4
TD · Q2 5:55
Garrett Greene run for 15 yds for a TD (Michael Hayes II KICK)
-9.1
TD · Q2 1:54
Alan Bowman pass complete to Rashod Owens for 8 yds for a TD (Logan Ward KICK)
+8.3