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BAY

Baylor 21 at Iowa State 43

ISU
2024 · Week 6 · Oct 5, 2024 · Jack Trice Stadium
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Win probability · ISU
modelISU aheadBAY aheadconfidence bandkey playISU scoreBAY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:38 · Palmer Williams punt for 56 yds , Jaylin Noel returns for 2 yds to the ISU 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 139Pregame prior+6.4Home team on offense+24.9Score differential+11.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.1Garbage-time factor+6.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:46: Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Michael Trigg for 8 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK) — BAY win probability +2.7 pts (now 31%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:46: Caden Matson 25 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Kyle Konrardy Kick) — ISU win probability +10.6 pts (now 81%) (top driver: Defense has -5 timeouts left).
  3. TD · Q3 12:55: Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr. for 25 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK) — BAY win probability +8.9 pts (now 35%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:33: Jaylon Jackson run for 10 yds for a TD (Kyle Konrardy KICK) — ISU win probability +10.9 pts (now 81%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:40: Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 11 yds for a TD (Kyle Konrardy KICK) — ISU win probability +31.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ISU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5BAY made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 9:21ISU 4th & 2 at BAY 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    79.4%−0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    78.9%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:19ISU 4th & 4 at BAY 27, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.3%−0.2
    62% to make
    Punt
    72.3%−2.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:34ISU 4th & 9 at BAY 20, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.1%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.7%
    75% to make
    Punt
    61.0%−3.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:43BAY 4th & 5 at BAY 41, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:46BAY 4th & 8 at BAY 38, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.0%−0.8
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:21BAY 4th & 1 at ISU 35, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    24.6%−1.7
    45% to make
    Punt
    23.6%−2.7
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:55BAY 4th & 3 at ISU 25, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    25.1%−0.8
    66% to make
    Punt
    18.7%−7.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:18BAY 4th & 4 at ISU 43, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    25.2%−2.5
    28% to make
    Punt
    26.4%−1.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:57BAY 4th & 3 at ISU 26, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    26.3%−1.0
    64% to make
    Punt
    19.1%−8.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:47ISU 4th & 2 at BAY 35, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    74.0%−3.4
    45% to make
    Punt
    72.5%−4.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:19BAY 4th & 1 at BAY 34, down 12
    Close callPunted · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.6%−0.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:38BAY 4th & 4 at BAY 22, down 19
    Close callPunted · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.6%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:16ISU 4th & 1 at BAY 3, up 19
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%
    63% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.5%−0.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    97.5%−1.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:12BAY 4th & 2 at BAY 33, down 22
    Close callPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ISU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5BAY made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 6:32BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:46BAY Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:10ISU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    70.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:46ISU Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:55BAY Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:33ISU Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 0:40ISU Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:31ISU Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ISUDrive 1DOWNS
15 plays · 59 yds · 5:3882% → 81%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
82.4%
Abu Sama III run for 4 yds to the ISU 29Similar
Q1 14:39
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
82.4%
Abu Sama III run for 10 yds to the ISU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
82.3%
Abu Sama III run for 2 yds to the ISU 41Similar
Q1 13:42
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+13
82.2%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 13 yds to the BAY 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-10
82.1%
(13:10) BECHT, Rocco scrambles to the right for a gain of 18 yards to the BAY28 (MA'AE, Treven), out of bounds, clock 13:02. PENALTY ISU Holding on MILLER, Tyler enforced 10 yards from the BAY46 to the ISU44 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 12:37
1ST & 20
OWN 44
+5
81.9%
Carson Hansen run for 5 yds to the ISU 49Similar
Q1 12:01
2ND & 15
OWN 49
0
81.7%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:55
3RD & 15
OWN 49
+15
81.6%
Rocco Becht run for 15 yds to the BAY 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
81.8%
Carson Hansen run for 8 yds to the BAY 28Similar
Q1 10:58
2ND & 2
OPP 28
+5
81.7%
Jaylon Jackson run for 5 yds to the BAY 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
81.6%
Jaylon Jackson run for 4 yds to the BAY 19Similar
Q1 10:01
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+4
81.5%
Carson Hansen run for 4 yds to the BAY 15Similar
Q1 9:25
3RD & 2
OPP 15
0
81.3%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:21
4TH & 2
OPP 15
-1
81.1%
Abu Sama III run for a loss of 1 yard to the BAY 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 2TD
11 plays · 84 yds · 2:4319% → 23%
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+31
80.8%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Hal Presley for 31 yds to the BAY 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
80.3%
Bryson Washington run for a loss of 1 yard to the BAY 46Similar
Q1 8:29
2ND & 11
OWN 46
0
80.2%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:24
3RD & 11
OWN 46
+11
80.3%
Sawyer Robertson run for 11 yds to the ISU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
79.7%
(07:48) ROBERTSON, Sawyer pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for CAMERON, Josh thrown to the ISU2, clock 07:42. PENALTY ISU Pass Interference on PURCHASE, Myles enforced at the spot of the foul for 15 yards to the ISU28 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
79.4%
Bryson Washington run for 1 yd to the ISU 27Similar
Q1 7:21
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+23
79.5%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Bryson Washington for 23 yds to the ISU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
79.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
79.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
76.8%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 4 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 3FG
7 plays · 48 yds · 3:1277% → 76%
Q1 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
76.9%
Jaylon Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the ISU 23Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+5
76.6%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 5 yds to the ISU 28Similar
Q1 5:29
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+39
75.7%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Benjamin Brahmer for 39 yds to the BAY 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
76.6%
Carson Hansen run for 3 yds to the BAY 30Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+3
76.1%
Rocco Becht run for 3 yds to the BAY 27Similar
Q1 3:30
3RD & 4
OPP 27
0
75.3%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:19
4TH & 4
OPP 27
+45
76.3%
Kyle Konrardy 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 4TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:3223% → 31%
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
77.1%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Hal Presley for 2 yds to the BAY 27Similar
Q1 2:43
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+11
76.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Dawson Pendergrass for 11 yds to the BAY 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
76.0%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 4 yds to the BAY 42Similar
Q1 1:47
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+8
75.6%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr. for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
50
+15
75.0%
(01:10) ROBERTSON, Sawyer pass deep to the right incomplete intended for HAWKINS, Ashtyn thrown to the ISU21, clock 01:05. PENALTY ISU Pass Interference on PURCHASE, Myles enforced at the spot of the foul for 15 yards to the ISU35 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
74.5%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:54
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+11
73.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 11 yds to the ISU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+13
72.5%
Sawyer Robertson run for 13 yds to the ISU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
72.1%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Michael Trigg for 4 yds to the ISU 7Similar
Q2 14:26
2ND & 6
OPP 7
-1
71.6%
Dawson Pendergrass run for a loss of 1 yard to the ISU 8Similar
Q2 13:46
3RD & 7
OPP 8
+8
68.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Michael Trigg for 8 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 5FG
9 plays · 30 yds · 3:1271% → 71%
Q2 13:46
1ST & 10
50
0
71.4%
Abu Sama III run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:09
2ND & 10
50
+4
70.6%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 4 yds to the BAY 46Similar
Q2 12:33
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+11
70.1%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 11 yds to the BAY 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+14
70.3%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 14 yds to the BAY 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
69.7%
Jaylon Jackson run for 1 yd to the BAY 20Similar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 9
OPP 20
0
71.2%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:46
3RD & 9
OPP 20
0
70.4%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:34
4TH & 9
OPP 20
+38
71.0%
Kyle Konrardy 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:5034% → 32%
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
65.8%
Bryson Washington run for 6 yds to the BAY 31Similar
Q2 10:12
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
65.9%
Bryson Washington run for 5 yds to the BAY 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
66.4%
Bryson Washington run for 6 yds to the BAY 42Similar
Q2 9:19
2ND & 4
OWN 42
-1
65.4%
Bryson Washington run for a loss of 1 yard to the BAY 41Similar
Q2 8:47
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
67.1%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:43
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
68.0%
Palmer Williams punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 7TD
5 plays · 84 yds · 2:2666% → 71%
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+25
65.9%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 25 yds to the ISU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+51
69.0%
Jaylon Jackson run for 51 yds to the BAY 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
69.8%
Jaylon Jackson run for 1 yd to the BAY 7Similar
Q2 6:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-3
69.4%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for a loss of 3 yards to the BAY 10Similar
Q2 6:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
70.9%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Benjamin Brahmer for 10 yds for a TD (Kyle Konrardy PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 8PUNT TD
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:2329% → 19%
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
71.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
71.2%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 11 yds to the BAY 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
70.6%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 2 yds to the BAY 38Similar
Q2 5:06
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
69.8%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:00
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
70.4%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:46
4TH & 8
OWN 38
+25
81.0%
Caden Matson 25 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Kyle Konrardy Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 9DOWNS
10 plays · 40 yds · 3:3120% → 23%
Q2 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
80.3%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 1 yd to the BAY 26Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
80.3%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 8 yds to the BAY 34Similar
Q2 3:36
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
80.0%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 5 yds to the BAY 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+17
79.3%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr. for 17 yds to the ISU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
77.8%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Michael Trigg for 7 yds to the ISU 37Similar
Q2 2:26
2ND & 3
OPP 37
-2
78.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for a loss of 2 yards to the ISU 39Similar
Q2 1:59
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+4
78.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Hal Presley for 4 yds to the ISU 35Similar
Q2 1:21
4TH & 1
OPP 35
0
79.8%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
77.1%
(01:13) BECHT, Rocco pass deep to the right incomplete intended for HIGGINS, Jayden thrown to the BAY20, clock 01:12. PENALTY BAY Pass Interference on LEMEAR, Devin enforced at the spot of the foul for 15 yards to the BAY49 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 10INT
4 plays · 59 yds · 0:3578% → 76%
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+41
78.3%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 41 yds to the BAY 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
76.9%
Carson Hansen run for a loss of 1 yard to the BAY 5Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-10
75.6%
Rocco Becht pass intercepted Garmon Randolph return for 10 yds to the BAY 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · 11 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+11
81.0%
Bryson Washington run for 11 yds to the BAY 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 2:0524% → 35%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+19
76.5%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Michael Trigg for 19 yds to the ISU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
74.4%
Bryson Washington run for 1 yd to the ISU 45Similar
Q3 14:07
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+13
74.2%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Hal Presley for 13 yds to the ISU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
73.2%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:44
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+7
73.3%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Michael Trigg for 7 yds to the ISU 25Similar
Q3 13:05
3RD & 3
OPP 25
0
73.6%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:55
4TH & 3
OPP 25
+25
64.8%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr. for 25 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 13TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:2167% → 81%
Q3 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
66.6%
Jaylin Noel run for no gain to the ISU 25Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
65.8%
(12:15) BECHT, Rocco pass deep to the left incomplete intended for HIGGINS, Jayden thrown to the BAY48, clock 12:10. PENALTY BAY Pass Interference on PARKER, Caleb enforced at the spot of the foul for 15 yards to the ISU40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
68.8%
Jaylon Jackson run for 7 yds to the ISU 47Similar
Q3 11:28
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+43
69.1%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 43 yds to the BAY 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
70.2%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
81.1%
Jaylon Jackson run for 10 yds for a TD (Kyle Konrardy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 14INT
12 plays · 55 yds · 3:2825% → 28%
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+15
75.4%
(10:25) ROBERTSON, Sawyer pass short to the left incomplete intended for WASHINGTON, Bryson broken up by JAMES, Ta'Shawn at the BAY22, clock 10:19. PENALTY ISU Targeting on JAMES, Ta'Shawn enforced 15 yards from the BAY19 to the BAY34 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
74.5%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 1 yd to the BAY 35Similar
Q3 9:47
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+16
74.6%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Michael Trigg for 16 yds to the ISU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
71.6%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 6 yds to the ISU 43Similar
Q3 8:26
2ND & 4
OPP 43
0
70.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:23
3RD & 4
OPP 43
0
71.5%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:18
4TH & 4
OPP 43
+10
72.6%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr. for 10 yds to the ISU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
69.6%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+7
69.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Hal Presley for 7 yds to the ISU 26Similar
Q3 7:03
3RD & 3
OPP 26
0
70.3%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:57
4TH & 3
OPP 26
0
72.4%
Sawyer Robertson pass intercepted, touchback. Jontez Williams return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 15TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 6:0763% → 94%
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
63.0%
Jaylon Jackson run for 4 yds to the ISU 24Similar
Q3 6:09
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+6
62.6%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 6 yds to the ISU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
62.5%
Jaylon Jackson run for no gain to the ISU 30Similar
Q3 4:46
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+10
61.3%
Rocco Becht run for 10 yds to the ISU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
63.5%
Carson Hansen run for 3 yds to the ISU 43Similar
Q3 3:25
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+14
63.3%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Tyler Moore for 14 yds to the BAY 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
64.4%
Abu Sama III run for a loss of 1 yard to the BAY 44Similar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 11
OPP 44
+9
63.2%
Jaylin Noel run for 9 yds to the BAY 35Similar
Q3 1:49
3RD & 2
OPP 35
0
62.4%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:47
4TH & 2
OPP 35
+22
60.3%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 22 yds to the BAY 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
62.8%
Jaylon Jackson run for 2 yds to the BAY 11Similar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 8
OPP 11
0
62.5%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:40
3RD & 8
OPP 11
+11
93.8%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 11 yds for a TD (Kyle Konrardy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2012% → 12%
Q3 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
88.3%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 6 yds to the BAY 31Similar
Q3 0:09
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
87.1%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 3 yds to the BAY 34Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
87.6%
Dawson Pendergrass run for no gain to the BAY 34Similar
Q4 14:19
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
88.4%
Palmer Williams punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Noel at the ISU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 17TD
5 plays · 76 yds · 2:4094% → 100%
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
94.2%
Carson Hansen run for 7 yds to the ISU 31Similar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+33
94.0%
Carson Hansen run for 33 yds to the BAY 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
96.9%
Carson Hansen run for 15 yds to the BAY 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
97.0%
Jaylon Jackson run for 1 yd to the BAY 20Similar
Q4 11:31
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+20
99.5%
Jaylon Jackson run for 20 yds for a TD (Kyle Konrardy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:453% → 3%
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
97.1%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr. for 6 yds to the BAY 22Similar
Q4 10:49
2ND & 4
OWN 22
0
97.1%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:44
3RD & 4
OWN 22
0
97.2%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:38
4TH & 4
OWN 22
+2
97.2%
Palmer Williams punt for 56 yds , Jaylin Noel returns for 2 yds to the ISU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 19FG
14 plays · 73 yds · 8:10100% → 100%
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
99.6%
Carson Hansen run for 4 yds to the ISU 28Similar
Q4 9:43
2ND & 6
OWN 28
-2
99.6%
Jaylon Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the ISU 26Similar
Q4 8:59
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+22
99.6%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 22 yds to the ISU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
99.7%
Carson Hansen run for 3 yds to the BAY 49Similar
Q4 7:28
2ND & 7
OPP 49
0
99.7%
Abu Sama III run for no gain to the BAY 49Similar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+15
99.6%
(06:45) BECHT, Rocco pass deep to the right incomplete intended for HIGGINS, Jayden thrown to the BAY26, clock 06:40. PENALTY BAY Pass Interference on JOHNSON, Lorando enforced at the spot of the foul for 15 yards to the BAY34 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
99.6%
Jaylon Jackson run for 5 yds to the BAY 29Similar
Q4 5:54
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+3
99.7%
Abu Sama III run for 3 yds to the BAY 26Similar
Q4 5:09
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+14
99.7%
Carson Hansen run for 4 yds to the BAY 22 for a 1ST down Baylor Penalty, Defensive Holding (Elinus Noel III) to the BAY 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
99.7%
Carson Hansen run for 7 yds to the BAY 5Similar
Q4 3:59
2ND & 3
OPP 5
+1
99.7%
Carson Hansen run for 1 yd to the BAY 4Similar
Q4 3:17
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+1
99.7%
Carson Hansen run for 1 yd to the BAY 3Similar
Q4 2:16
4TH & 1
OPP 3
+22
99.8%
Kyle Konrardy 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:020% → 0%
Q4 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.6%
Sawyer Robertson run for no gain to the BAY 25Similar
Q4 1:59
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.7%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 8 yds to the BAY 33Similar
Q4 1:12
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
99.7%
Palmer Williams punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 21END OF GAME
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:34100% → 100%
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
99.8%
Easton Miller run for 4 yds to the ISU 23Similar
Q4 0:29
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+3
99.8%
Easton Miller run for 3 yds to the ISU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:40
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 11 yds for a TD (Kyle Konrardy KICK)
+31.3
TD · Q3 10:33
Jaylon Jackson run for 10 yds for a TD (Kyle Konrardy KICK)
+10.9
TD · Q2 4:46
Caden Matson 25 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Kyle Konrardy Kick)
+10.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com