2024 · Week 6 · Oct 5, 2024 · Arizona Stadium
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Win probability · ARIZ
modelARIZ aheadTTU aheadconfidence bandkey playARIZ scoreTTU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 1:52 · Kedrick Reescano run for 3 yds to the TTU 3 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 1:38: Tahj Brooks run for 9 yds for a TD (J. Miller II Run For Two-point Conversion) — TTU win probability +12.0 pts (now 65%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:10: Quali Conley run for 3 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK) — ARIZ win probability +26.3 pts (now 59%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
- FG · Q4 10:07: Tyler Loop 37 yd FG GOOD — ARIZ win probability +12.7 pts (now 66%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
- FG · Q4 2:21: Gino Garcia 41 yd FG GOOD — TTU win probability +29.0 pts (now 73%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 1:53: Tahj Brooks run for 32 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK) — TTU win probability +10.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 10 of 11TTU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
- Q1 13:47TTU 4th & 3 at TTU 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 33.5% before the snapGo for it33.5%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.6%average punt
- Q1 11:40ARIZ 4th & 17 at ARIZ 27, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 66.0% before the snapGo for it65.9%−0.213% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call66.1%average punt
- Q1 9:34TTU 4th & 6 at ARIZ 46, tiedClose callPunted · 34.1% before the snapGo for it34.2%40% to convertField goal34.0%−0.223% to makePuntTheir call34.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 8:12ARIZ 4th & 9 at ARIZ 16, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 65.3% before the snapGo for it65.1%−0.330% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call65.3%average punt
- Q1 0:22ARIZ 4th & 3 at TTU 29, down 7Close callKicked a field goal · 59.8% before the snapGo for it59.9%52% to convertField goalTheir call59.3%−0.658% to makePunt56.2%−3.7average punt
- Q2 13:26TTU 4th & 30 at TTU 5, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.8% before the snapGo for it34.9%−2.36% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.2%average punt
- Q2 10:37ARIZ 4th & 1 at TTU 20, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call61.7%71% to convertField goal60.3%−1.475% to makePunt56.1%−5.6average punt
- Q2 6:34TTU 4th & 6 at TTU 47, up 4Close callPunted · 42.0% before the snapGo for it41.8%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call41.7%−0.1average punt
- Q3 14:32ARIZ 4th & 10 at ARIZ 14, down 15Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.6% before the snapGo for it31.8%−2.228% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.0%average punt
- Q3 12:35TTU 4th & 10 at TTU 46, up 15Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.2% before the snapGo for it70.6%−1.629% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call72.3%average punt
- Q3 9:29ARIZ 4th & 10 at TTU 22, down 15Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.4% before the snapGo for it27.4%−1.628% to convertField goalTheir call29.0%72% to makePunt21.1%−7.9average punt
- Q3 6:46ARIZ 4th & 12 at TTU 12, down 12Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.3% before the snapGo for it29.8%−2.019% to convertField goalTheir call31.7%86% to makePunt23.3%−8.4average punt
- Q3 5:59TTU 4th & 9 at TTU 26, up 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.2% before the snapGo for it61.6%−2.530% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call64.2%average punt
- Q3 1:52ARIZ 4th & 1 at TTU 6, down 9Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call33.7%69% to convertField goal28.3%−5.391% to makePunt14.8%−18.8average punt
- Q4 10:07ARIZ 4th & 6 at TTU 19, down 2Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.8% before the snapGo for it51.6%−3.438% to convertField goalTheir call55.0%77% to makePunt37.8%−17.3average punt
- Q4 9:06TTU 4th & 1 at TTU 34, down 1Numbers favored go for it by 2.7 ptsPunted · 36.5% before the snapGo for it37.5%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.8%−2.7average punt
- Q4 4:52ARIZ 4th & 8 at TTU 30, up 1Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.4% before the snapGo for it64.3%−1.034% to convertField goalTheir call65.2%56% to makePunt58.8%−6.4average punt
- Q4 2:21TTU 4th & 9 at ARIZ 23, down 1Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.9% before the snapGo for it34.6%−13.430% to convertField goalTheir call48.0%70% to makePunt25.6%−22.4average punt
- Q4 0:54ARIZ 4th & 17 at TTU 34, down 9Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.2% before the snapGo for it6.7%−1.115% to convertField goalTheir call7.9%47% to makePunt6.1%−1.8average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 1 of 1TTU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
- Q1 5:38TTU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call37.0%97% to makeGo for two37.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:38TTU Touchdown, up 10 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick57.6%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call57.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:10ARIZ Touchdown, down 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call50.5%97% to makeGo for two50.2%−0.345% to convert
- Q4 1:53TTU Touchdown, up 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.7%97% to makeGo for two92.6%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTTUDrive 1PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1338% → 38%
ARIZDrive 2PUNT6 plays · 3 yds · 2:0262% → 62%
TTUDrive 3PUNT6 plays · 26 yds · 2:0438% → 38%
Q1 11:38
1ST & 5
OWN 33
+6
61.7%
Behren Morton pass complete to Coy Eakin for 6 yds to the TTU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 1:1562% → 61%
TTUDrive 5TD5 plays · 61 yds · 2:2339% → 43%
Q1 6:22
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+38
60.5%
Behren Morton pass complete to Micah Hudson for 38 yds to the ARIZ 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 6FG12 plays · 46 yds · 5:1458% → 60%
Q1 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
58.1%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jeremiah Patterson for 6 yds to the ARIZ 31Similar
Q1 5:11
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
58.3%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jeremiah Patterson for 6 yds to the ARIZ 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+12
57.6%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 12 yds to the ARIZ 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:49
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+9
58.0%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Quali Conley for 9 yds to the TTU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 7PUNT5 plays · -20 yds · 1:5041% → 40%
Q1 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
59.0%
Behren Morton pass complete to Josh Kelly for a loss of 3 yards to the TTU 22Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+6
59.3%
Behren Morton pass complete to Coy Eakin for 6 yds to the TTU 28Similar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-19
59.0%
Behren Morton sacked by Stanley Ta'ufo'ou for a loss of 19 yards to the TTU 9Similar
Q2 13:40
4TH & 26
OWN 9
-4
60.3%
Texas Tech Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Reese Burkhardt) to the TTU 5Similar
Q2 13:26
4TH & 30
OWN 5
+1
60.2%
Jack Burgess punt for 46 yds , Jeremiah Patterson returns for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 8DOWNS5 plays · 30 yds · 2:4161% → 60%
TTUDrive 9PUNT8 plays · 27 yds · 3:5742% → 45%
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
54.2%
Behren Morton pass complete to Josh Kelly for 3 yds to the TTU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 10INT6 plays · 49 yds · 3:2255% → 58%
Q2 5:46
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+8
55.3%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Keyan Burnett for 8 yds to the ARIZ 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+18
56.1%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Montana Lemonious-Craig for 18 yds to the TTU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:02
2ND & 8
OPP 43
-20
58.1%
Noah Fifita pass intercepted Quincy Ledet Jr. return for 20 yds to the ARIZ 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 11TD8 plays · 30 yds · 1:1350% → 65%
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
49.9%
Behren Morton pass complete to Jalin Conyers for 9 yds to the ARIZ 21Similar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
47.5%
Behren Morton pass complete to Josh Kelly for 6 yds to the ARIZ 11Similar
Q2 1:38
3RD & 2
OPP 9
+9
34.9%
Tahj Brooks run for 9 yds for a TD (J. Miller II Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 12INT6 plays · 48 yds · 1:0540% → 41%
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
39.6%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 17 yds to the ARIZ 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
40.1%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Quali Conley for 4 yds to the ARIZ 46Similar
Q2 0:59
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+12
39.4%
(00:59) FIFITA, Noah pass to the right incomplete intended for LEMONIOUS-CRAIG, Montana thrown to the TTU45, clock 00:54. PENALTY TTU Pass Interference on LUX, Bralyn enforced 12 yards to the TTU42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
39.7%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 15 yds to the TTU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
41.0%
Noah Fifita pass intercepted, touchback. C.J. Baskerville return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 13FG6 plays · 76 yds · 0:3165% → 78%
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
35.2%
Texas Tech Penalty, Offensive Holding (Josh Kelly) to the TTU 12Similar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 18
OWN 12
+57
34.5%
Behren Morton pass complete to Caleb Douglas for 57 yds to the ARIZ 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+19
31.8%
Behren Morton pass complete to Caleb Douglas for 19 yds to the ARIZ 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 14PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2333% → 32%
Q3 14:32
4TH & 10
OWN 14
0
31.5%
Michael Salgado-Medina punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Coy Eakin at the TTU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 15PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:5172% → 73%
ARIZDrive 16FG9 plays · 56 yds · 2:5630% → 33%
TTUDrive 17FUMBLE2 plays · 7 yds · 0:2369% → 71%
ARIZDrive 18FG8 plays · 20 yds · 2:0336% → 36%
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+12
36.4%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Keyan Burnett for 12 yds to the TTU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:29
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+7
35.1%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Keyan Burnett for 7 yds to the TTU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-4
35.1%
Quali Conley run for a loss of 4 yards to the TTU 12 Quali Conley fumbled, recovered by ARIZ Noah Fifita N. Fifita return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4565% → 64%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 20TD8 plays · 72 yds · 4:3436% → 59%
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+40
36.3%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 40 yds to the TTU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 21FUMBLE3 plays · 19 yds · 1:1053% → 55%
ARIZDrive 22FG9 plays · 25 yds · 4:2758% → 66%
Q4 14:34
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
57.5%
(14:34) FIFITA, Noah sacked for a loss of 10 yards at the ARIZ46 (DYSON III, Harvey), clock 14:33. PENALTY TTU Holding on BASKERVILLE, CJ enforced 10 yards from the TTU44 to the TTU34 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
59.1%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jeremiah Patterson for 6 yds to the TTU 28Similar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 4
OPP 28
-10
59.1%
(13:37) REESCANO, Kedrick rush to the right for a gain of 1 yard to the TTU27 (LUX, Bralyn;BASKERVILLE, CJ), clock 13:38. PENALTY ARIZ Holding on STEWART, Ryan enforced 10 yards from the TTU28 to the TTU38 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:16
2ND & 14
OPP 38
+15
54.2%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 15 yds to the TTU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:18
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+5
55.7%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Quali Conley for 5 yds to the TTU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 23PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:0038% → 37%
ARIZDrive 24MISSED FG9 plays · 40 yds · 4:0765% → 66%
TTUDrive 25FG8 plays · 47 yds · 2:2940% → 73%
ARIZDrive 26FUMBLE1 play · 18 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
41.9%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 18 yds Tetairoa McMillan fumbled, recovered by TTU Brenden Jordan B. Jordan return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 27TD5 plays · 43 yds · 0:1778% → 96%
ARIZDrive 28FG10 plays · 41 yds · 0:576% → 12%
TTUDrive 29END OF GAME2 plays · -2 yds · 0:2395% → 95%
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 2:21
Gino Garcia 41 yd FG GOOD
-29
TD · Q3 1:10
Quali Conley run for 3 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK)
+26.3
FG · Q4 10:07
Tyler Loop 37 yd FG GOOD
+12.7