Try the model
CIN

Cincinnati 41 at Texas Tech 44

TTU
2024 · Week 5 · Sep 28, 2024 · Jones AT&T Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TTU
modelTTU aheadCIN aheadconfidence bandkey playTTU scoreCIN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:12 · Brendan Sorsby run for 2 yds to the TTU 15 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+20.0+10.00−10.0−20.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 17Home team on offense−0.4Pregame prior+12.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Time remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:47: Evan Pryor run for 1 yd for a TD (Nathan Hawks KICK) — CIN win probability +10.5 pts (now 56%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:39: Tahj Brooks run for 1 yd for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK) — TTU win probability +10.7 pts (now 66%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:40: Brendan Sorsby pass intercepted A.J. McCarty return for 51 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK) — TTU win probability +12.2 pts (now 90%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:05: Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Manny Covey for 71 yds for a TD (Nathan Hawks KICK) — CIN win probability +10.8 pts (now 20%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:24: Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Manny Covey for 3 yds for a TD (Nathan Hawks KICK) — CIN win probability +29.1 pts (now 40%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TTU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5CIN made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 11:33TTU 4th & 4 at CIN 27, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.2%−<0.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    59.8%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:12CIN 4th & 1 at TTU 17, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    39.1%−0.4
    80% to make
    Punt
    37.8%−1.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:07TTU 4th & 1 at TTU 44, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    58.0%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:39CIN 4th & 6 at CIN 29, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.0%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:27CIN 4th & 4 at TTU 19, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 43.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.6%−0.2
    77% to make
    Punt
    40.0%−3.8
    average punt
  6. Q3 6:39CIN 4th & 8 at TTU 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.8%−1.0
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.8%
    90% to make
    Punt
    17.7%−10.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 0:53TTU 4th & 10 at CIN 20, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.6%−2.3
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.9%
    75% to make
    Punt
    57.9%−12.0
    average punt
  8. Q4 15:00CIN 4th & 2 at CIN 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    23.6%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 7:50TTU 4th & 9 at CIN 9, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.0%−1.2
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.2%
    89% to make
    Punt
    76.3%−9.9
    average punt
  10. Q4 2:00TTU 4th & 12 at CIN 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.8%−2.7
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TTU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5CIN made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 7:35CIN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:59CIN Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:25TTU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:32TTU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:47CIN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:39TTU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 12:27TTU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:40TTU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 12:05CIN Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 3:24CIN Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.4%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TTUDrive 1FG
11 plays · 38 yds · 3:2264% → 64%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
63.7%
Tahj Brooks run for 5 yds to the TTU 40Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+15
63.7%
Tahj Brooks run for 15 yds to the CIN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
63.8%
Tahj Brooks run for 5 yds to the CIN 40Similar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+7
63.8%
Tahj Brooks run for 7 yds to the CIN 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
63.9%
Behren Morton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:43
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+3
63.9%
Tahj Brooks run for 3 yds to the CIN 30Similar
Q1 12:29
3RD & 7
OPP 30
-5
63.8%
Texas Tech Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CIN 35Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 12
OPP 35
+8
63.7%
Behren Morton pass complete to Josh Kelly for 8 yds to the CIN 27Similar
Q1 11:33
4TH & 4
OPP 27
+45
64.1%
Gino Garcia 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 2TD
8 plays · 68 yds · 3:5036% → 39%
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
64.1%
Corey Kiner run for 6 yds to the CIN 38Similar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+36
63.9%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 36 yds Xzavier Henderson fumbled, recovered by CIN Jamoi Mayes J. Mayes return for 0 yds for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
63.6%
Barry Jackson Jr. run for 6 yds to the TTU 20Similar
Q1 9:29
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+3
63.6%
Corey Kiner run for 3 yds to the TTU 17Similar
Q1 8:57
3RD & 1
OPP 17
0
63.6%
Corey Kiner run for no gain to the TTU 17Similar
Q1 8:12
4TH & 1
OPP 17
+2
63.7%
Brendan Sorsby run for 2 yds to the TTU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
61.1%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Tony Johnson for 15 yds for a TD (Nathan Hawks KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 3DOWNS
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:2861% → 60%
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
60.6%
Behren Morton pass complete to Jalin Conyers for 3 yds to the TTU 28Similar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
60.3%
Behren Morton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+7
59.9%
Behren Morton pass complete to Drae McCray for 7 yds to the TTU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
60.1%
Tahj Brooks run for 3 yds to the TTU 38Similar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 7
OWN 38
-1
60.4%
Tahj Brooks run for a loss of 1 yard to the TTU 37Similar
Q1 5:29
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+7
59.5%
Behren Morton pass complete to Josh Kelly for 7 yds to the TTU 44Similar
Q1 5:07
4TH & 1
OWN 44
-2
59.7%
Tahj Brooks run for a loss of 2 yards to the TTU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 4TD
1 play · 42 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
56.8%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 42 yds for a TD (Nathan Hawks KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 5TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 3:3457% → 61%
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
57.4%
Behren Morton pass complete to Josh Kelly for 29 yds to the CIN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
57.8%
Tahj Brooks run for 1 yd to the CIN 45Similar
Q1 4:01
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+2
57.5%
Behren Morton pass complete to Drae McCray for 2 yds to the CIN 43Similar
Q1 3:12
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+16
55.8%
Behren Morton pass complete to Mason Tharp for 16 yds to the CIN 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-1
56.4%
Tahj Brooks run for a loss of 1 yard to the CIN 28Similar
Q1 2:06
2ND & 11
OPP 28
+21
56.1%
Behren Morton pass complete to Drae McCray for 21 yds to the CIN 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
60.6%
Behren Morton pass complete to Coy Eakin for 7 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4740% → 40%
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
59.8%
Evan Pryor run for 4 yds to the CIN 29Similar
Q1 0:53
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
59.3%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:39
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+3
60.5%
Mason Fletcher punt for 43 yds , Josh Kelly returns for 3 yds to the TTU 31Similar
Q1 0:38
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
59.8%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 7FG
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:4443% → 46%
Q1 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
57.5%
Evan Pryor run for no gain to the TTU 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+6
57.5%
(15:00) SORSBY, Brendan pass to the left incomplete intended for PRYOR, Evan thrown to the TTU22; QB hurried by RODRIGUEZ, Jacob, clock 14:55. PENALTY TTU Pass Interference on SMITH, Isaac enforced at the spot of the foul for 6 yards to the TTU25 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
57.1%
Brendan Sorsby run for 9 yds to the TTU 16Similar
Q2 14:19
2ND & 1
OPP 16
-3
56.9%
Evan Pryor run for a loss of 3 yards to the TTU 19Similar
Q2 13:41
3RD & 4
OPP 19
0
57.2%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:27
4TH & 4
OPP 19
+37
53.7%
Nathan Hawks 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 8TD
6 plays · 85 yds · 2:5154% → 64%
Q2 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
53.7%
Tahj Brooks run for 4 yds to the TTU 19Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+4
53.3%
Behren Morton pass complete to Caleb Douglas for 4 yds to the TTU 23Similar
Q2 12:12
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+26
52.7%
Behren Morton run for 26 yds to the TTU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
54.4%
Tahj Brooks run for 6 yds to the CIN 45Similar
Q2 11:17
2ND & 4
OPP 45
-4
54.6%
Tahj Brooks run for a loss of 4 yards to the CIN 49Similar
Q2 10:32
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+49
63.7%
Behren Morton pass complete to Coy Eakin for 49 yds for a TD (Reese Burkhardt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 9TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 6:4539% → 56%
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
60.8%
Manny Covey run for no gain to the CIN 25Similar
Q2 9:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
60.6%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Manny Covey for 6 yds to the CIN 31Similar
Q2 9:18
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+4
60.3%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Joe Royer for 4 yds to the CIN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-4
59.6%
Manny Covey run for a loss of 4 yards to the CIN 31Similar
Q2 8:07
2ND & 14
OWN 31
+4
59.5%
Brendan Sorsby run for 4 yds to the CIN 35Similar
Q2 7:43
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+5
59.7%
Texas Tech Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the CIN 40Similar
Q2 7:18
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+11
57.8%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Jamoi Mayes for 11 yds to the TTU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
56.3%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Jamoi Mayes for 3 yds to the TTU 46Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+16
56.0%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Tony Johnson for 16 yds to the TTU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
54.9%
Texas Tech Penalty, Face mask (8 yards) (C.J. Baskerville) to the TTU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
54.4%
Evan Pryor run for 3 yds to the TTU 8Similar
Q2 4:38
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+7
54.2%
Brendan Sorsby run for 7 yds to the TTU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
43.7%
Evan Pryor run for 1 yd for a TD (Nathan Hawks KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 10TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:0147% → 66%
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+35
47.2%
Tahj Brooks run for 35 yds to the CIN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
49.9%
Behren Morton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:51
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+22
49.2%
Behren Morton pass complete to Coy Eakin for 22 yds to the CIN 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
50.2%
Tahj Brooks run for 2 yds to the CIN 16Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+12
52.2%
Behren Morton pass complete to Drae McCray for 12 yds to the CIN 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
52.1%
Tahj Brooks run for 1 yd to the CIN 3Similar
Q2 1:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
55.2%
Tahj Brooks run for 2 yds to the CIN 1Similar
Q2 1:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
66.0%
Tahj Brooks run for 1 yd for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 11MISSED FG
14 plays · 51 yds · 1:3542% → 46%
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
57.7%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Jamoi Mayes for 4 yds to the CIN 29Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
57.1%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-5
58.3%
Cincinnati Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CIN 24Similar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+17
59.3%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 17 yds to the CIN 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
55.3%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Joe Royer for 4 yds to the CIN 45Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+10
54.7%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Joe Royer for 10 yds to the TTU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+10
54.0%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Manny Covey for 10 yds to the TTU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
53.6%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
52.4%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Manny Covey for 4 yds to the TTU 31Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+7
52.0%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Joe Royer for 7 yds to the TTU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
51.8%
Brendan Sorsby run for no gain to the TTU 24Similar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
52.2%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+42
53.9%
Nathan Hawks 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 12FUMBLE
2 plays · 13 yds · 0:3442% → 44%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
58.0%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Evan Pryor for 16 yds to the CIN 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-3
55.7%
Evan Pryor run for a loss of 3 yards to the CIN 38 Evan Pryor fumbled, recovered by TTU Jacob Rodriguez J. Rodriguez return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 13TD
6 plays · 38 yds · 1:5265% → 76%
Q3 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+21
64.8%
Behren Morton run for 21 yds to the CIN 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
65.4%
Behren Morton pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:36
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+4
65.4%
Tahj Brooks run for 4 yds to the CIN 13Similar
Q3 13:11
3RD & 6
OPP 13
+11
64.3%
Behren Morton pass complete to Josh Kelly for 11 yds to the CIN 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
65.3%
Behren Morton pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
75.6%
Tahj Brooks run for 2 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 14FG
11 plays · 72 yds · 5:4228% → 34%
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+19
72.4%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Jamoi Mayes for 19 yds to the CIN 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
71.1%
Brendan Sorsby run for 7 yds to the CIN 46Similar
Q3 11:06
2ND & 3
OWN 46
0
70.2%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:59
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+5
70.6%
Brendan Sorsby run for 5 yds to the TTU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
69.8%
Manny Covey run for a loss of 2 yards to the CIN 49Similar
Q3 9:52
2ND & 12
OWN 49
+8
71.6%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Tony Johnson for 8 yds to the TTU 43Similar
Q3 9:13
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+36
70.6%
Evan Pryor run for 36 yds to the TTU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
68.2%
Brendan Sorsby sacked by Jayden Cofield for a loss of 2 yards to the TTU 9Similar
Q3 7:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
68.2%
Victor Dawson run for 1 yd to the TTU 8Similar
Q3 6:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
70.1%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
66.5%
Nathan Hawks 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 15FG
15 plays · 55 yds · 5:4670% → 82%
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
69.9%
Tahj Brooks run for 5 yds to the TTU 30Similar
Q3 6:09
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
70.6%
Tahj Brooks run for 2 yds to the TTU 32Similar
Q3 5:21
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+13
69.7%
Jalin Conyers run for 13 yds to the TTU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
72.1%
Behren Morton pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:46
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+5
71.2%
Tahj Brooks run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:10
3RD & 5
50
+10
72.7%
Behren Morton pass complete to Josh Kelly for 10 yds to the CIN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
74.1%
Tahj Brooks run for 2 yds to the CIN 38Similar
Q3 2:53
2ND & 8
OPP 38
0
74.1%
Behren Morton pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:45
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+18
73.4%
Behren Morton pass complete to Josh Kelly for 18 yds to the CIN 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
75.4%
Behren Morton pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:03
2ND & 10
OPP 20
-10
75.4%
(02:03) BROOKS, Tahj rush to the right for a loss of 1 yard to the CIN21 (COLEMAN, Simeon), clock 01:56. PENALTY TTU Holding on MILLER II, Johncarlos enforced 10 yards from the CIN20 to the CIN30 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 1:43
2ND & 20
OPP 30
+5
73.8%
Tahj Brooks run for 5 yds to the CIN 25Similar
Q3 1:09
3RD & 15
OPP 25
+5
72.3%
(01:09) MORTON, Behren pass deep to the right incomplete intended for EAKIN, Coy thrown to the CIN3, clock 01:03. PENALTY CIN Offsides on JACKSON, Rob enforced 5 yards from the CIN25 to the CIN20 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 1:01
3RD & 10
OPP 20
0
74.1%
Behren Morton pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:53
4TH & 10
OPP 20
+38
81.9%
Reese Burkhardt 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 16INT TD
8 plays · 27 yds · 3:1323% → 10%
Q3 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
77.1%
Manny Covey run for 4 yds to the CIN 29Similar
Q3 0:22
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
76.7%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:15
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+4
78.2%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Tony Johnson for 4 yds to the CIN 33Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+3
78.2%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Joe Royer for 3 yds to the CIN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
76.7%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:17
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+9
77.3%
Brendan Sorsby run for 9 yds to the CIN 45Similar
Q4 13:32
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+7
77.7%
Brendan Sorsby run for 7 yds to the TTU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-51
89.9%
Brendan Sorsby pass intercepted A.J. McCarty return for 51 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 17TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:359% → 20%
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
91.1%
Manny Covey run for 4 yds to the CIN 29Similar
Q4 12:05
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+71
80.3%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Manny Covey for 71 yds for a TD (Nathan Hawks KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 18FG
9 plays · 66 yds · 4:1585% → 90%
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
85.2%
Tahj Brooks run for 6 yds to the TTU 31Similar
Q4 11:48
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
85.7%
Tahj Brooks run for 5 yds to the TTU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+28
86.0%
Behren Morton pass complete to Josh Kelly for 28 yds to the CIN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
88.0%
Tahj Brooks run for 15 yds to the CIN 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+16
88.3%
Tahj Brooks run for 16 yds to the CIN 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
88.6%
Behren Morton run for a loss of 1 yard to the CIN 6Similar
Q4 8:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
88.8%
Behren Morton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-3
88.2%
Behren Morton pass complete to Drae McCray for a loss of 3 yards to the CIN 9Similar
Q4 7:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
89.7%
Gino Garcia 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 19TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:2611% → 40%
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
89.5%
Manny Covey run for 5 yds to the CIN 30Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+8
89.0%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 8 yds to the CIN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+16
89.2%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 16 yds to the TTU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
89.6%
Manny Covey run for 3 yds to the TTU 43Similar
Q4 5:56
2ND & 7
OPP 43
0
89.6%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:46
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+18
90.0%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Tony Johnson for 18 yds to the TTU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+10
88.4%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Joe Royer for 10 yds to the TTU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+9
88.6%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 9 yds to the TTU 6Similar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 1
OPP 6
+3
89.0%
Brendan Sorsby run for 3 yds to the TTU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
59.8%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Manny Covey for 3 yds for a TD (Nathan Hawks KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 1:0182% → 87%
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+25
81.7%
Tahj Brooks run for 25 yds to the CIN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
87.5%
Tahj Brooks run for 3 yds to the CIN 42Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 7
OPP 42
-5
87.7%
Tahj Brooks run for a loss of 5 yards to the CIN 47Similar
Q4 2:20
3RD & 12
OPP 47
0
88.3%
Behren Morton pass complete to Josh Kelly for no gain to the CIN 47Similar
Q4 2:00
4TH & 12
OPP 47
0
87.2%
Jack Burgess punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Michael Mussari at the CIN 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 21MISSED FG
11 plays · 58 yds · 1:4721% → 16%
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-1
79.5%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for a loss of 1 yard to the CIN 9Similar
Q4 1:26
2ND & 11
OWN 9
+28
81.0%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Joe Royer for 28 yds to the CIN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
78.7%
Brendan Sorsby run for 1 yd to the CIN 38Similar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+19
80.8%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Jamoi Mayes for 19 yds to the TTU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:36
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+6
81.2%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Manny Covey for 6 yds to the TTU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
83.1%
Manny Covey run for 5 yds to the TTU 38Similar
Q4 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
79.4%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:10
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
80.2%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:06
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+51
83.7%
Nathan Hawks 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:24
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Manny Covey for 3 yds for a TD (Nathan Hawks KICK)
-29.1
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+16.3
TD · Q4 12:40
Brendan Sorsby pass intercepted A.J. McCarty return for 51 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK)
+12.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com