Try the model
BYU

BYU 34 at Baylor 28

BAY
2024 · Week 5 · Sep 28, 2024 · McLane Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadBYU aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreBYU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 0:37 · Sawyer Robertson run for 2 yds to the BAY 49
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 133Home team on offense−17.6Score differential−7.4Garbage-time factor−7.9Pregame prior+1.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:39: Jake Retzlaff run for 17 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK) — BYU win probability +7.6 pts (now 60%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:32: Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Darius Lassiter for 44 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK) — BYU win probability +13.5 pts (now 74%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:10: Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 1 yd for a TD (Connor Hawkins KICK) — BAY win probability +9.3 pts (now 36%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:44: Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 15 yds for a TD (Connor Hawkins KICK) — BAY win probability +14.1 pts (now 40%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:07: Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 23 yds for a TD — BAY win probability +23.3 pts (now 46%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 9 of 11BYU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 6:20BAY 4th & 1 at BYU 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    53.2%−1.4
    58% to make
    Punt
    50.4%−4.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 0:03BAY 4th & 1 at BYU 20, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    39.9%−0.9
    75% to make
    Punt
    36.8%−4.0
    average punt
  3. Q2 7:24BAY 4th & 18 at BAY 28, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.4%−1.6
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:24BAY 4th & 18 at BAY 28, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.4%−1.6
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:37BYU 4th & 2 at BYU 32, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.2%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:30BYU 4th & 12 at BAY 36, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.5%−1.3
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.8%
    42% to make
    Punt
    67.6%−2.2
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:25BAY 4th & 8 at BYU 48, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.0%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    26.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:43BAY 4th & 4 at BYU 28, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    23.6%−0.6
    60% to make
    Punt
    17.7%−6.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:28BYU 4th & 10 at BYU 35, up 10
    Numbers favored punt by 2.2 ptsWent for it · 64.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.8%−2.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    66.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:33BYU 4th & 11 at BAY 19, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.9%−2.3
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.2%
    77% to make
    Punt
    61.0%−10.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:56BAY 4th & 15 at BAY 17, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.6%−2.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:37BAY 4th & 5 at BAY 47, down 13
    Close callWent for it · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.3%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    22.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:39BYU 4th & 5 at BAY 31, up 13
    Close callKicked a field goal · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.9%−0.4
    54% to make
    Punt
    85.2%−2.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:54BYU 4th & 14 at BYU 27, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.3%−5.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:13BAY 4th & 1 at BAY 12, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    23.3%−5.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:32BAY 4th & 24 at BAY 12, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.3%−4.1
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.4%
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:47BAY 4th & 6 at BYU 24, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.1%
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    14.4%−5.7
    68% to make
    Punt
    9.2%−10.9
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:24BYU 4th & 12 at BYU 23, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.4%−2.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BAY made the numbers' call on 4 of 4BYU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 10:52BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:26BYU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:39BYU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:03BAY Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:32BYU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:10BAY Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:44BAY Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 10:07BAY Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.6%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BYUDrive 1TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:5842% → 44%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
57.6%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Kody Epps for 6 yds to the BYU 31Similar
Q1 14:12
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
57.6%
Enoch Nawahine run for 1 yd to the BYU 30Similar
Q1 13:28
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+24
57.7%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Darius Lassiter for 24 yds to the BAY 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
57.4%
Pokaiaua Haunga run for 3 yds to the BAY 43Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+13
57.4%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Darius Lassiter for 13 yds to the BAY 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
57.3%
Parker Kingston run for 4 yds to the BAY 26Similar
Q1 10:52
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+26
55.7%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Miles Davis for 26 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 2INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
56.1%
Sawyer Robertson pass intercepted Blake Mangelson return for no gain to the BAY 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 3TD
4 plays · 20 yds · 2:0545% → 48%
Q1 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
55.5%
Enoch Nawahine run for 6 yds to the BAY 14Similar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+11
55.3%
Pokaiaua Haunga run for 11 yds to the BAY 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
54.9%
Enoch Nawahine run for 1 yd to the BAY 2Similar
Q1 8:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
52.0%
Chase Roberts run for 2 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 4DOWNS
8 plays · 44 yds · 1:3853% → 52%
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
52.6%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Hal Presley for 10 yds to the BAY 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
52.6%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Hal Presley for 4 yds to the BAY 39Similar
Q1 7:13
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+23
52.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 23 yds to the BYU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
52.9%
Bryson Washington run for 3 yds to the BYU 35Similar
Q1 6:44
2ND & 7
OPP 35
0
52.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:38
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+6
52.6%
Bryson Washington run for 6 yds to the BYU 29Similar
Q1 6:20
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+2
52.4%
Bryson Washington run for 2 yds to the BYU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 5TD
8 plays · 69 yds · 2:4150% → 60%
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
50.5%
PENALTY BYU False Start (Makasini,Sonny) 5 yards from BYU31 to BYU26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:14
1ST & 15
OWN 26
+12
50.5%
Enoch Nawahine run for 12 yds to the BYU 38Similar
Q1 5:37
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+3
49.5%
Enoch Nawahine run for 3 yds to the BYU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
48.8%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Keelan Marion for 12 yds to the BAY 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
48.4%
Jake Retzlaff pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:08
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+30
48.3%
Jake Retzlaff run for 15 yds to the BAY 32 for a 1ST down Baylor Penalty, (15 Yards) to the BAY 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
47.9%
Parker Kingston pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:39
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+17
40.3%
Jake Retzlaff run for 17 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 6TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 3:1742% → 47%
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+21
42.4%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 21 yds to the BAY 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
43.1%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:02
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+1
42.7%
Bryson Washington run for 1 yd to the BAY 42Similar
Q1 2:17
3RD & 9
OWN 42
-5
41.0%
(02:29) No Huddle-Shotgun Robertson,Sawyer pass complete short left to Washington,Bryson caught at BU42, for 19 yards to the BYU39 (Wall,Tanner) PENALTY BU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Aigbedion,Omar) 5 yards from BU42 to BU37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:47
3RD & 14
OWN 37
+34
39.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 34 yds to the BYU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
41.3%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:19
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+1
40.9%
Dominic Richardson run for 1 yd to the BYU 28Similar
Q1 0:37
3RD & 9
OPP 28
+8
39.8%
Sawyer Robertson run for 8 yds to the BYU 20Similar
Q1 0:03
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+20
47.3%
Sawyer Robertson run for 20 yds for a TD (Connor Hawkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 7TD
11 plays · 85 yds · 5:2055% → 74%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
45.2%
Enoch Nawahine run for 1 yd to the BYU 16Similar
Q2 14:19
2ND & 9
OWN 16
0
44.9%
Jake Retzlaff pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:08
3RD & 9
OWN 16
+10
45.1%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Chase Roberts for 10 yds to the BYU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
43.6%
Pokaiaua Haunga run for 3 yds to the BYU 29Similar
Q2 12:59
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+2
43.0%
Pokaiaua Haunga run for 2 yds to the BYU 31Similar
Q2 12:18
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+9
42.7%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Darius Lassiter for 9 yds to the BYU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
40.6%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Pokaiaua Haunga for 9 yds to the BYU 49Similar
Q2 10:54
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+1
39.8%
Pokaiaua Haunga run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:08
1ST & 10
50
+6
39.2%
Enoch Nawahine run for 6 yds to the BAY 44Similar
Q2 9:32
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+44
25.8%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Darius Lassiter for 44 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 3 yds · 2:0131% → 29%
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
30.5%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
30.0%
Sawyer Robertson run for 11 yds to the BAY 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
30.1%
Sawyer Robertson run for 3 yds to the BAY 39Similar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
29.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:10
3RD & 7
OWN 39
-11
30.6%
Sawyer Robertson sacked by Crew Wakley for a loss of 11 yards to the BAY 28Similar
Q2 7:24
4TH & 18
OWN 28
+2
28.5%
Palmer Williams punt for 50 yds , Parker Kingston returns for 2 yds to the BYU 24Similar
Q2 7:24
4TH & 18
OWN 28
+2
28.5%
Palmer Williams punt for 50 yds , Parker Kingston returns for 2 yds to the BYU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3975% → 76%
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
25.0%
Jake Retzlaff pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:09
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+2
24.8%
Enoch Nawahine run for 2 yds to the BYU 26Similar
Q2 6:20
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+6
24.4%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Keanu Hill for 6 yds to the BYU 32Similar
Q2 5:37
4TH & 2
OWN 32
+20
24.0%
Sam Vander Haar punt for 45 yds , Josh Cameron returns for 20 yds to the BAY 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 10TD
8 plays · 57 yds · 3:1828% → 36%
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
28.1%
Bryson Washington run for 11 yds to the BYU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
28.4%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Hal Presley for 1 yd to the BYU 45Similar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+19
27.6%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 19 yds to the BYU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+8
27.9%
Sawyer Robertson run for 8 yds to the BYU 18Similar
Q2 3:13
2ND & 2
OPP 18
+1
27.2%
Bryson Washington run for 1 yd to the BYU 17Similar
Q2 2:53
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+15
26.2%
(02:58) No Huddle-Shotgun Robertson,Sawyer pass incomplete short right to Jackson Jr.,Ketron thrown to BYU00, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY BYU Pass Interference (Bamba,Mory) 15 yards from BYU17 to BYU02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
26.9%
Sawyer Robertson run for 1 yd to the BYU 1Similar
Q2 2:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
36.3%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 1 yd for a TD (Connor Hawkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 11FG
12 plays · 39 yds · 1:3467% → 78%
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
33.2%
Enoch Nawahine run for 3 yds to the BYU 28Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+14
31.3%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Darius Lassiter for 14 yds to the BYU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
29.5%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Chase Roberts for 10 yds to the BAY 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+14
28.8%
Jake Retzlaff run for 14 yds to the BAY 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
28.3%
Jake Retzlaff pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-3
27.9%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Darius Lassiter for a loss of 3 yards to the BAY 37Similar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 13
OPP 37
+1
27.7%
Jake Retzlaff run for 1 yd to the BAY 36Similar
Q2 0:30
4TH & 12
OPP 36
+54
21.8%
Will Ferrin 54 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12MISSED FG
8 plays · 42 yds · 0:2427% → 31%
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
27.3%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Bryson Washington for 6 yds to the BAY 31Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+24
27.8%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Hal Presley for 24 yds to the BYU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
37.8%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+12
37.4%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 12 yds to the BYU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+50
30.6%
Connor Hawkins 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 13TD
15 plays · 66 yds · 6:0228% → 40%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
27.7%
Sawyer Robertson sacked by Tyler Batty for a loss of 5 yards to the BAY 29Similar
Q3 13:56
2ND & 15
OWN 29
+3
25.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Bryson Washington for 3 yds to the BAY 32Similar
Q3 13:29
3RD & 12
OWN 32
+18
25.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:03
1ST & 10
50
0
27.4%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:57
2ND & 10
50
+4
26.8%
Dominic Richardson run for 4 yds to the BYU 46Similar
Q3 12:13
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+2
26.4%
Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the BYU 48Similar
Q3 11:25
4TH & 8
OPP 48
+14
25.2%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Bryson Washington for 14 yds to the BYU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
27.1%
Bryson Washington run for 1 yd to the BYU 33Similar
Q3 10:36
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+5
26.5%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Hal Presley for 5 yds to the BYU 28Similar
Q3 10:09
3RD & 4
OPP 28
0
25.4%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:43
4TH & 4
OPP 28
+11
24.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Hal Presley for 11 yds to the BYU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
25.4%
Bryson Washington run for 2 yds to the BYU 15Similar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+15
39.5%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 15 yds for a TD (Connor Hawkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 14FG
15 plays · 46 yds · 5:0767% → 81%
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
33.3%
Jake Retzlaff pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
33.6%
Enoch Nawahine run for no gain to the BYU 35Similar
Q3 7:51
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
33.9%
Jake Retzlaff pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:28
4TH & 10
OWN 35
+22
34.5%
Sam Vander Haar run for 22 yds to the BAY 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
30.1%
Enoch Nawahine run for 2 yds to the BAY 41Similar
Q3 6:18
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+10
28.5%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Darius Lassiter for 10 yds to the BAY 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
27.5%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Chase Roberts for 4 yds to the BAY 27Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 6
OPP 27
0
27.2%
Jake Retzlaff pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:14
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+9
26.4%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Darius Lassiter for 9 yds to the BAY 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
25.0%
Pokaiaua Haunga run for 2 yds to the BAY 20Similar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 12
OPP 20
0
24.9%
Jake Retzlaff pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:56
3RD & 12
OPP 20
+1
25.4%
Jake Retzlaff run for 1 yd to the BAY 19Similar
Q3 3:33
4TH & 11
OPP 19
+37
19.2%
Will Ferrin 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:2525% → 23%
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
24.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:13
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
24.5%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:06
3RD & 10
OWN 22
0
23.3%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:06
4TH & 10
OWN 22
-5
23.1%
PENALTY BU Delay Of Game 5 yards from BU22 to BU17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:56
4TH & 15
OWN 17
0
23.0%
Palmer Williams punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BYU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 16INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:4482% → 83%
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
17.8%
Jake Retzlaff pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:41
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+2
17.9%
Enoch Nawahine run for 2 yds to the BYU 39Similar
Q3 2:06
3RD & 8
OWN 39
0
17.3%
Jake Retzlaff pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 17DOWNS
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2124% → 22%
Q3 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
24.3%
Sawyer Robertson run for 5 yds to the BAY 47Similar
Q3 1:25
2ND & 5
OWN 47
0
24.2%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:16
3RD & 5
OWN 47
0
23.1%
Bryson Washington run for no gain to the BAY 47Similar
Q3 0:37
4TH & 5
OWN 47
+2
21.7%
Sawyer Robertson run for 2 yds to the BAY 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 18MISSED FG
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:2186% → 91%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
14.5%
Enoch Nawahine run for no gain to the BAY 49Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+13
14.4%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Pokaiaua Haunga for 13 yds to the BAY 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
14.4%
Pokaiaua Haunga run for 3 yds to the BAY 33Similar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 7
OPP 33
0
10.9%
Jake Retzlaff pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:17
3RD & 7
OPP 33
+2
8.7%
Enoch Nawahine run for 2 yds to the BAY 31Similar
Q4 12:39
4TH & 5
OPP 31
+49
9.5%
Will Ferrin 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 19TD
6 plays · 68 yds · 2:2120% → 46%
Q4 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
20.4%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Bryson Washington for 6 yds to the BAY 38Similar
Q4 12:03
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+4
20.8%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Hal Presley for 4 yds to the BAY 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
20.8%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Bryson Washington for 6 yds to the BAY 48Similar
Q4 11:01
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+23
21.4%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Hal Presley for 23 yds to the BYU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
22.2%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Gavin Yates for 6 yds to the BYU 23Similar
Q4 10:07
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+23
45.5%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 23 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:0172% → 69%
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
27.8%
Jake Retzlaff pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:48
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+4
28.4%
Enoch Nawahine run for 4 yds to the BYU 27Similar
Q4 9:07
3RD & 14
OWN 27
0
29.9%
Jake Retzlaff pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:54
4TH & 14
OWN 27
0
31.0%
Sam Vander Haar punt for 70 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 21PUNT
10 plays · 9 yds · 3:1236% → 28%
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+7
35.5%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 7 yds to the BAY 10Similar
Q4 8:29
2ND & 3
OWN 10
0
35.7%
Bryson Washington run for no gain to the BAY 10Similar
Q4 7:46
3RD & 3
OWN 10
+2
34.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Bryson Washington for 2 yds to the BAY 12Similar
Q4 7:13
4TH & 1
OWN 12
+3
29.8%
Bryson Washington run for 3 yds to the BAY 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
31.5%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:27
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+11
30.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 11 yds to the BAY 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-14
32.1%
Baylor Penalty, (Yards) to the BAY 12Similar
Q4 5:53
2ND & 24
OWN 12
0
30.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:46
3RD & 24
OWN 12
0
28.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:32
4TH & 24
OWN 12
+2
27.5%
Palmer Williams punt for 52 yds , Parker Kingston returns for 2 yds to the BYU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 22INT
3 plays · 8 yds · 1:1181% → 85%
Q4 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
19.1%
Jake Retzlaff run for 5 yds to the BYU 43Similar
Q4 4:44
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+3
17.9%
Enoch Nawahine run for 3 yds to the BYU 46Similar
Q4 4:01
3RD & 2
OWN 46
0
14.6%
Jake Retzlaff pass intercepted Elinus Noel III return for no gain to the BYU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 23DOWNS
8 plays · 21 yds · 1:5635% → 22%
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
34.5%
Bryson Washington run for 1 yd to the BYU 44Similar
Q4 3:18
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+1
33.5%
Sawyer Robertson run for 1 yd to the BYU 43Similar
Q4 2:38
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+15
32.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 15 yds to the BYU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
37.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:17
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+4
36.8%
Bryson Washington run for 4 yds to the BYU 24Similar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 6
OPP 24
0
27.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:47
4TH & 6
OPP 24
0
21.8%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · -2 yds · 0:1991% → 93%
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
9.3%
Enoch Nawahine run for 5 yds to the BYU 30Similar
Q4 1:43
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-15
9.0%
PENALTY BYU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Nawahine,Enoch) 15 yards from BYU30 to BYU15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+1
7.3%
Enoch Nawahine run for 1 yd to the BYU 16Similar
Q4 1:32
3RD & 19
OWN 16
+7
7.6%
Enoch Nawahine run for 7 yds to the BYU 23Similar
Q4 1:24
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
7.1%
Sam Vander Haar punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Josh Cameron at the BAY 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 25INT
3 plays · -10 yds · 0:2014% → 12%
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
14.1%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:07
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-10
12.9%
(01:16) No Huddle-Shotgun Robertson,Sawyer pass complete short left to Baldwin,Monaray caught at BU48, for 9 yards to the BU48 (Moa,Aisea) PENALTY BU Holding (Fugar,Sidney) 10 yards from BU39 to BU29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:59
2ND & 20
OWN 29
0
12.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 26END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:5295% → 95%
Q4 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
5.3%
J. Retzlaff takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 47
-1
4.6%
J. Retzlaff takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:07
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 23 yds for a TD
+23.3
TD · Q3 8:44
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 15 yds for a TD (Connor Hawkins KICK)
+14.1
TD · Q2 9:32
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Darius Lassiter for 44 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)
-13.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com