2024 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2024 · Milan Puskar Stadium
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Win probability · WVU
modelWVU aheadKU aheadconfidence bandkey playWVU scoreKU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:43 · Damon Greaves punt for 42 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 9:08: Jalon Daniels pass complete to Luke Grimm for 7 yds for a TD (Tabor Allen KICK) — KU win probability +13.1 pts (now 50%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:30: Daniel Hishaw Jr. run for 11 yds for a TD (Tabor Allen KICK) — KU win probability +20.4 pts (now 64%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 5:39: Luke Grimm run for 32 yds for a TD (Tabor Allen KICK) — KU win probability +18.4 pts (now 91%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 3:27: Garrett Greene pass complete to Kole Taylor for 8 yds for a TD (Traylon Ray pass to Kole Taylor for Two-Point Conversion) — WVU win probability +26.9 pts (now 44%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
- TD · Q4 0:26: Garrett Greene pass complete to Rodney Gallagher III for 15 yds for a TD (Michael Hayes II KICK) — WVU win probability +58.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WVU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6KU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q1 11:32WVU 4th & 14 at KU 48, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 55.4% before the snapGo for it55.3%−0.119% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.4%average punt
- Q1 6:26KU 4th & 19 at KU 22, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 43.7% before the snapGo for it43.3%−0.810% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.0%average punt
- Q2 15:00WVU 4th & 5 at KU 25, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call61.9%41% to convertField goal61.9%−<0.166% to makePunt59.1%−2.8average punt
- Q2 4:21WVU 4th & 10 at KU 45, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 56.6% before the snapGo for it56.0%−0.230% to convertField goal55.4%−0.825% to makePuntTheir call56.2%average punt
- Q2 1:42KU 4th & 20 at KU 9, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 43.7% before the snapGo for it41.0%−4.09% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.0%average punt
- Q3 15:00KU 4th & 2 at WVU 43, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call34.0%57% to convertField goal30.8%−3.228% to makePunt32.3%−1.7average punt
- Q3 7:03WVU 4th & 9 at KU 22, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.3% before the snapGo for it56.4%−1.630% to convertField goalTheir call58.0%72% to makePunt48.5%−9.5average punt
- Q3 1:31KU 4th & 9 at KU 39, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.4% before the snapGo for it58.6%−1.932% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call60.5%average punt
- Q4 13:36WVU 4th & 15 at WVU 32, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.2% before the snapGo for it35.3%−5.416% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call40.7%average punt
- Q4 10:43KU 4th & 7 at KU 49, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.4% before the snapGo for it65.7%−0.237% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call65.9%average punt
- Q4 9:19WVU 4th & 5 at WVU 14, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.3% before the snapGo for it32.8%−0.540% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.3%average punt
- Q4 9:19KU 4th & 1 at WVU 45, up 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call67.9%70% to convertField goal57.5%−10.325% to makePunt61.3%−6.5average punt
- Q4 2:22KU 4th & 5 at KU 25, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.4% before the snapGo for it71.4%−1.640% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call72.9%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WVU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4KU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q1 5:16WVU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call59.0%97% to makeGo for two59.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:31KU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call41.5%97% to makeGo for two41.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:25WVU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call66.4%97% to makeGo for two66.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:08KU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call41.2%97% to makeGo for two41.0%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 4:30KU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call54.6%97% to makeGo for two54.4%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 5:39KU Touchdown, up 10 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call89.8%−<0.197% to makeGo for two89.8%45% to convert
- Q4 3:27WVU Touchdown, down 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersWent for two · convertedKick20.2%−0.797% to makeGo for twoTheir call20.9%45% to convert
- Q4 0:26WVU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call80.8%97% to makeGo for two80.5%−0.345% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWVUDrive 1PUNT10 plays · 27 yds · 3:2856% → 56%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+15
55.5%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Jahiem White for 15 yds to the WVU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 2PUNT9 plays · 14 yds · 5:0644% → 43%
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
55.8%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Trevor Kardell for 9 yds to the KU 29Similar
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
55.7%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Daniel Hishaw Jr. for 5 yds to the KU 36Similar
Q1 11:32
3RD & 8
OWN 33
-11
55.9%
Jalon Daniels sacked by T.J. Jackson for a loss of 11 yards to the KU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 3TD3 plays · 78 yds · 1:1056% → 61%
KUDrive 4INT6 plays · 45 yds · 3:3740% → 40%
Q1 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+22
59.7%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Luke Grimm for 22 yds to the WVU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
58.8%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 10 yds to the WVU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 9
OPP 37
-16
59.6%
Jalon Daniels pass intercepted Tyrin Bradley Jr. return for 16 yds to the WVU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 5INT7 plays · 36 yds · 2:4862% → 64%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-3
63.4%
Nicco Marchiol run for a loss of 3 yards to the KU 21 Nicco Marchiol fumbled, recovered by WVU Nicco Marchiol N. Marchiol return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q2 13:47
2ND & 13
OPP 21
-5
63.9%
Garrett Greene pass intercepted Cobee Bryant return for 5 yds to the KU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 6TD13 plays · 83 yds · 6:1638% → 49%
WVUDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 39 yds · 3:0457% → 57%
Q2 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+21
57.1%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Hudson Clement for 21 yds to the WVU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:25
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+16
58.6%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Hudson Clement for 16 yds to the KU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:25
3RD & 9
OPP 44
-1
58.7%
Garrett Greene sacked by Jereme Robinson for a loss of 1 yard to the KU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 8PUNT10 plays · 5 yds · 2:3945% → 44%
Q2 4:21
3RD & 5
OWN 9
+10
55.8%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Luke Grimm for 10 yds to the KU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:21
2ND & 10
OWN 19
-14
54.4%
NEAL, Devin rush up the middle for a gain of 14 yards to the KAN33 (WILSON, Anthony). PENALTY KAN Holding enforced half the distance from the goal, 9 yards from the KAN19 to the KAN10 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:42
4TH & 20
OWN 9
+16
56.1%
Damon Greaves punt for 41 yds , Rodney Gallagher III returns for 16 yds to the KU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 9TD9 plays · 34 yds · 1:1761% → 70%
Q2 1:42
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+9
59.7%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Hudson Clement for 9 yds to the KU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+9
61.1%
Garrett Greene run for 19 yds West Virginia Penalty, Offensive Holding (Brandon Yates) to the KU 23Similar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 14
OPP 23
+18
57.8%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Traylon Ray for 18 yds to the KU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 10END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 11TD10 plays · 75 yds · 5:5232% → 50%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
68.0%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Quentin Skinner for 8 yds to the KU 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+16
66.2%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Jared Casey for 16 yds to the KU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-26
65.2%
Kansas Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (-26 Yards) to the WVU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
50.3%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Luke Grimm for 7 yds for a TD (Tabor Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 12FG5 plays · 53 yds · 2:0557% → 64%
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+52
57.3%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Traylon Ray for 52 yds to the KU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 13TD5 plays · 75 yds · 2:3338% → 64%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 14INT2 plays · 24 yds · 0:4745% → 47%
KUDrive 15PUNT6 plays · 16 yds · 2:1259% → 59%
WVUDrive 16PUNT6 plays · 9 yds · 2:5542% → 38%
Q3 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
43.4%
West Virginia Penalty, False Start (Ja'Quay Hubbard) to the WVU 32Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 15
OWN 32
-2
41.7%
Garrett Greene sacked by Blake Herold for a loss of 2 yards to the WVU 30Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 31
+1
39.7%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Jahiem White for 1 yd to the WVU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 17PUNT8 plays · 14 yds · 2:5364% → 66%
WVUDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1739% → 35%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 19TD6 plays · 54 yds · 3:4070% → 91%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 20TD9 plays · 75 yds · 2:1211% → 44%
Q4 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
11.1%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Hudson Clement for 16 yds to the WVU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+26
12.9%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Rodney Gallagher III for 26 yds to the KU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:39
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+10
13.8%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Kole Taylor for 10 yds to the KU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
16.8%
Garrett Greene run for 4 yds to the KU 19 for a 1ST down Kansas Penalty, Personal Foul (Marvin Grant) to the KU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:27
3RD & 7
OPP 8
+8
43.7%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Kole Taylor for 8 yds for a TD (Traylon Ray pass to Kole Taylor for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 21PUNT6 plays · 5 yds · 1:0175% → 77%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 22TD12 plays · 67 yds · 1:3428% → 96%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
30.9%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Hudson Clement for 11 yds to the KU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 4
OPP 40
-2
30.9%
Garrett Greene sacked by JB Brown for a loss of 2 yards to the KU 42Similar
Q4 0:37
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+15
37.9%
GREENE, Garrett pass deep to the right incomplete intended for CLEMENT, Hudson thrown to the KAN0. PENALTY KAN Pass Interference on DOTSON, Mello enforced half the distance from the goal, 15 yards to the KAN10 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 0:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
37.9%
West Virginia Penalty, False Start (Brandon Yates) to the KU 15Similar
Q4 0:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
+15
96.3%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Rodney Gallagher III for 15 yds for a TD (Michael Hayes II KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 23FUMBLE3 plays · 27 yds · 0:1820% → 28%
Q4 0:26
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+36
80.3%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 36 yds to the WVU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-9
71.6%
Jalon Daniels sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the WVU 48 Jalon Daniels fumbled, recovered by WVU Tyrin Bradley Jr. , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 24END OF GAME1 play · -1 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:26
Garrett Greene pass complete to Rodney Gallagher III for 15 yds for a TD (Michael Hayes II KICK)
+58.5
TD · Q4 3:27
Garrett Greene pass complete to Kole Taylor for 8 yds for a TD (Traylon Ray pass to Kole Taylor for Two-Point Conversion)
+26.9
TD · Q3 4:30
Daniel Hishaw Jr. run for 11 yds for a TD (Tabor Allen KICK)
-20.4