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ASU

Arizona State 22 at Texas Tech 30

TTU
2024 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2024 · Jones AT&T Stadium
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Win probability · TTU
modelTTU aheadASU aheadconfidence bandkey playTTU scoreASU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGFGTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:32 · (00:32) [NH] Kneel down by TTU at ASU45 (team loss of 1), clock 00:26.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.0+15.00−15.0−30.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:33: Sam Leavitt run for 1 yd for a TD (Ian Hershey KICK) — ASU win probability +12.6 pts (now 40%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:08: Gino Garcia 30 yd FG GOOD — TTU win probability +4.5 pts (now 73%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:14: Jalin Conyers run for 3 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK) — TTU win probability +8.9 pts (now 88%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:39: Cam Skattebo run for 3 yds for a TD (Ian Hershey PAT BLOCKED) — ASU win probability +11.8 pts (now 25%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:39: Cam Skattebo run for 3 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — ASU win probability +11.0 pts (now 17%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TTU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8ASU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 2:48ASU 4th & 1 at TTU 14, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    28.3%−1.2
    84% to make
    Punt
    24.4%−5.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 0:54TTU 4th & 14 at TTU 10, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.6%−1.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.3%
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:10ASU 4th & 9 at TTU 17, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.0%
    80% to make
    Punt
    22.2%−4.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:54TTU 4th & 10 at TTU 49, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.8%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:35ASU 4th & 6 at ASU 19, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:34TTU 4th & 6 at TTU 46, up 11
    Close callPunted · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:08TTU 4th & 8 at ASU 12, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.4%
    86% to make
    Punt
    63.0%−3.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 14:18ASU 4th & 6 at ASU 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.8%−0.6
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:43ASU 4th & 1 at ASU 48, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.2%−2.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:54TTU 4th & 9 at ASU 47, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.7%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.3%
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:36TTU 4th & 10 at ASU 22, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.2%−2.0
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.2%
    72% to make
    Punt
    75.3%−10.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:50ASU 4th & 10 at ASU 25, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.8%−0.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:54TTU 4th & 9 at ASU 22, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.2%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.7%
    72% to make
    Punt
    88.1%−3.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:17ASU 4th & 9 at TTU 32, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.2%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    4.7%
    51% to make
    Punt
    3.4%−1.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:55TTU 4th & 18 at TTU 24, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.6%−1.3
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TTU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ASU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 11:22TTU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:42TTU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:33ASU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:14TTU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:39ASU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    19.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:39ASU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    5.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    5.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TTUDrive 1TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 3:3465% → 66%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
64.6%
Tahj Brooks run for 2 yds to the TTU 37Similar
Q1 14:23
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+9
64.6%
Behren Morton pass complete to Coy Eakin for 9 yds to the TTU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
64.6%
Behren Morton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:01
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+21
64.6%
Behren Morton pass complete to Caleb Douglas for 21 yds to the ASU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
64.7%
Behren Morton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:38
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+17
64.7%
Behren Morton pass complete to Caleb Douglas for 17 yds to the ASU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
64.8%
Tahj Brooks run for 6 yds to the ASU 10Similar
Q1 12:41
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+5
64.8%
Tahj Brooks run for 5 yds to the ASU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
64.9%
Tahj Brooks run for no gain to the ASU 5Similar
Q1 11:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
66.0%
Behren Morton pass complete to Johncarlos Miller II for 5 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 2INT
5 plays · -11 yds · 1:2234% → 33%
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
65.6%
Arizona State Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Yards) to the ASU 13Similar
Q1 10:51
1ST & 22
OWN 13
+4
65.7%
Cam Skattebo run for 4 yds to the ASU 17Similar
Q1 10:33
2ND & 18
OWN 17
-3
65.8%
Sam Leavitt sacked by A.J. McCarty and Amier Washington for a loss of 3 yards to the ASU 14Similar
Q1 9:53
3RD & 21
OWN 14
0
66.2%
Sam Leavitt pass intercepted C.J. Baskerville return for no gain to the ASU 38Similar
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
66.6%
Texas Tech Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ASU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 3TD
7 plays · 38 yds · 2:0666% → 70%
Q1 9:48
1ST & 15
OPP 43
0
66.4%
Behren Morton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:39
2ND & 15
OPP 43
+4
66.5%
Behren Morton pass complete to Josh Kelly for 4 yds to the ASU 39Similar
Q1 9:06
3RD & 11
OPP 39
-10
66.5%
(09:06) MORTON, Behren pass up the middle complete for 22 yards to DOUGLAS, Caleb caught at the ASU42 and advanced to the ASU17 (ALFORD, Xavion), clock 09:04. PENALTY TTU Holding on MERRYMAN, Dalton enforced 10 yards from the ASU39 to the ASU49 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 8:44
3RD & 21
OPP 49
+15
66.3%
Arizona State Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Justin Wodtly) to the ASU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
67.2%
Tahj Brooks run for 7 yds to the ASU 20Similar
Q1 7:49
2ND & 3
OPP 20
0
67.4%
Behren Morton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:42
3RD & 3
OPP 20
+20
70.1%
Behren Morton pass complete to Josh Kelly for 20 yds for a TD (Reese Burkhardt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 4DOWNS
13 plays · 69 yds · 4:4831% → 30%
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
69.2%
Cam Skattebo run for 1 yd to the ASU 18Similar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+3
69.6%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Cam Skattebo for 3 yds to the ASU 21Similar
Q1 6:19
3RD & 6
OWN 21
+5
70.1%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Cam Skattebo for 5 yds to the ASU 26Similar
Q1 5:48
4TH & 1
OWN 26
+15
70.3%
(05:48) LEAVITT, Sam pass deep to the left incomplete intended for METAYER, Chamon thrown to the TTU37, clock 05:42. PENALTY TTU Pass Interference on STEVENSON, Marquez enforced 15 yards to the ASU41 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
70.0%
Kyson Brown run for 2 yds to the ASU 43Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+10
70.4%
LEAVITT, Sam pass up the middle incomplete intended for TYSON, Jordyn thrown to the TTU44, clock 05:00. PENALTY TTU Holding on HORN, Maurion enforced 10 yards from the ASU43 to the TTU47 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+14
70.1%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Xavier Guillory for 14 yds to the TTU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+10
69.6%
LEAVITT, Sam pass short to the right incomplete intended for TYSON, Jordyn thrown to the TTU28, clock 04:27. PENALTY TTU Holding on PEOPLES, Jalon enforced 10 yards from the TTU33 to the TTU23 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
69.5%
Cam Skattebo run for 8 yds to the TTU 15Similar
Q1 4:04
2ND & 2
OPP 15
+1
69.1%
Cam Skattebo run for 1 yd to the TTU 14Similar
Q1 3:08
3RD & 1
OPP 14
0
70.1%
Cam Skattebo run for no gain to the TTU 14Similar
Q1 2:48
4TH & 1
OPP 14
0
70.5%
Cam Skattebo run for no gain to the TTU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:4972% → 72%
Q1 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
71.8%
Tahj Brooks run for 3 yds to the TTU 17Similar
Q1 1:58
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+2
72.2%
Tahj Brooks run for 2 yds to the TTU 19Similar
Q1 1:16
3RD & 5
OWN 19
0
72.2%
Texas Tech Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Yards) to the TTU 10Similar
Q1 0:54
4TH & 14
OWN 10
0
71.9%
Jack Burgess punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 6FG
8 plays · 31 yds · 2:3329% → 30%
Q1 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
70.9%
Sam Leavitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:38
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+9
71.3%
Cam Skattebo run for 9 yds to the TTU 39Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+3
70.9%
Cam Skattebo run for 3 yds to the TTU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
71.2%
Texas Tech Penalty, Personal Foul (Harvey Dyson III) to the TTU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:34
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-2
70.2%
Cam Skattebo run for a loss of 2 yards to the TTU 20Similar
Q2 13:52
2ND & 12
OPP 20
+3
71.1%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Xavier Guillory for 3 yds to the TTU 17Similar
Q2 13:15
3RD & 9
OPP 17
0
71.8%
Sam Leavitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:10
4TH & 9
OPP 17
+34
69.9%
Ian Hershey 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 7PUNT
14 plays · 34 yds · 4:1071% → 73%
Q2 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
71.2%
Behren Morton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+8
71.1%
Behren Morton pass complete to Caleb Douglas for 8 yds to the TTU 23Similar
Q2 12:15
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+7
71.1%
Tahj Brooks run for 7 yds to the TTU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
71.9%
Behren Morton pass complete to Josh Kelly for 8 yds to the TTU 38Similar
Q2 11:33
2ND & 2
OWN 38
-4
72.9%
Tahj Brooks run for a loss of 4 yards to the TTU 34Similar
Q2 10:49
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+15
71.7%
Arizona State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Myles Rowser) to the TTU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
73.1%
Tahj Brooks run for 3 yds to the TTU 41Similar
Q2 10:14
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+3
74.0%
Tahj Brooks run for 3 yds to the TTU 44Similar
Q2 9:34
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+5
73.5%
Behren Morton pass complete to Josh Kelly for 5 yds to the TTU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
74.4%
Behren Morton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
74.3%
Behren Morton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:02
3RD & 10
OWN 49
0
73.3%
Behren Morton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:54
4TH & 10
OWN 49
0
72.6%
Jack Burgess punt for 49 yds, downed at the ASU 2Similar
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 2
-1
72.6%
Arizona State Penalty, False Start (Yards) to the ASU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:1327% → 25%
Q2 8:48
1ST & 11
OWN 1
+5
72.7%
Cam Skattebo run for 5 yds to the ASU 6Similar
Q2 8:08
2ND & 6
OWN 6
+9
73.3%
Cam Skattebo run for 9 yds to the ASU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
73.1%
Sam Leavitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+4
73.4%
Kyson Brown run for 4 yds to the ASU 19Similar
Q2 6:45
3RD & 6
OWN 19
0
74.1%
(06:45) LEAVITT, Sam pass to the right complete for 11 yards to MCCLAIN, Malik caught at the ASU30 and advanced to the ASU30, End of Play, clock 06:47. PENALTY ASU Illegal Touch-Pass on MCCLAIN, Malik enforced 0 yards from the ASU19 to the ASU19, penalty results in a loss of down [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:35
4TH & 6
OWN 19
0
74.8%
Kanyon Floyd punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Josh Kelly at the TTU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5575% → 74%
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
75.2%
Behren Morton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:23
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+4
74.8%
Tahj Brooks run for 4 yds to the TTU 46Similar
Q2 5:39
3RD & 6
OWN 46
0
74.7%
Behren Morton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:34
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
73.8%
Jack Burgess punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 10TD
10 plays · 79 yds · 3:5826% → 40%
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
73.7%
Cam Skattebo run for 1 yd to the ASU 22Similar
Q2 4:53
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+8
75.3%
Sam Leavitt run for 8 yds to the ASU 30Similar
Q2 4:14
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+6
75.0%
Cam Skattebo run for 6 yds to the ASU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+27
74.8%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 27 yds to the TTU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
73.9%
Kyson Brown run for 3 yds to the TTU 34Similar
Q2 2:22
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+19
73.1%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Xavier Guillory for 19 yds to the TTU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
72.6%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 6 yds to the TTU 9Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 4
OPP 9
+8
72.6%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 8 yds to the TTU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
60.0%
Sam Leavitt run for 1 yd for a TD (Ian Hershey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 11FG
12 plays · 64 yds · 1:1867% → 74%
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+25
67.3%
Tahj Brooks run for 25 yds to the TTU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
69.8%
Tahj Brooks run for 7 yds to the ASU 44Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 3
OPP 44
0
70.0%
Behren Morton pass complete to Drae McCray for no gain to the ASU 44Similar
Q2 0:56
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+15
69.2%
(00:56) MORTON, Behren pass deep to the right incomplete intended for DOUGLAS, Caleb thrown to the ASU15, clock 00:57. PENALTY ASU Pass Interference on ABNEY II, Keith enforced 15 yards to the ASU29 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
70.5%
Behren Morton pass complete to Josh Kelly for 15 yds to the ASU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-5
70.5%
Texas Tech Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ASU 19Similar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 15
OPP 19
+3
69.1%
Behren Morton pass complete to Tahj Brooks for 3 yds to the ASU 16Similar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 12
OPP 16
0
69.0%
Behren Morton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:08
4TH & 8
OPP 12
+30
72.8%
Gino Garcia 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q2 0:07
3RD & 12
OPP 16
+4
73.7%
Behren Morton run for 4 yds to the ASU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:0027% → 28%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
73.1%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Cam Skattebo for 11 yds to the ASU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
72.3%
Sam Leavitt pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4228% → 26%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
72.0%
Cam Skattebo run for 4 yds to the ASU 29Similar
Q3 14:29
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
71.7%
Sam Leavitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:24
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
72.8%
Sam Leavitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:18
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+1
73.8%
Kanyon Floyd punt for 40 yds , Josh Kelly returns for 1 yd to the TTU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 14TD
12 plays · 68 yds · 5:5074% → 88%
Q3 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
73.6%
Tahj Brooks run for 8 yds to the TTU 40Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+8
75.4%
Behren Morton pass complete to Josh Kelly for 8 yds to the TTU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+16
75.4%
Behren Morton pass complete to Coy Eakin for 16 yds to the ASU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
75.8%
Tahj Brooks run for 3 yds to the ASU 33Similar
Q3 11:39
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+4
76.7%
Cameron Dickey run for 4 yds to the ASU 29Similar
Q3 10:58
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+4
75.9%
Cameron Dickey run for 4 yds to the ASU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+10
77.1%
Tahj Brooks run for 10 yds to the ASU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
78.6%
Behren Morton pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:38
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
78.6%
Behren Morton pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:31
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+12
77.6%
Behren Morton pass complete to Mason Tharp for 12 yds to the ASU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
78.9%
Behren Morton pass complete to Micah Hudson for no gain to the ASU 3Similar
Q3 8:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
87.8%
Jalin Conyers run for 3 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 15DOWNS
5 plays · 23 yds · 2:2715% → 15%
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
85.3%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Xavier Guillory for 14 yds to the ASU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
84.3%
Cam Skattebo run for 2 yds to the ASU 41Similar
Q3 6:56
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+6
84.7%
Sam Leavitt run for 6 yds to the ASU 47Similar
Q3 6:20
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+1
84.4%
Sam Leavitt run for 1 yd to the ASU 48Similar
Q3 5:43
4TH & 1
OWN 48
0
85.1%
Sam Leavitt run for no gain to the ASU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4690% → 89%
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
89.5%
Tahj Brooks run for 1 yd to the ASU 47Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 9
OPP 47
0
90.0%
Behren Morton pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:56
3RD & 9
OPP 47
0
89.4%
Behren Morton pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:54
4TH & 9
OPP 47
0
88.8%
Jack Burgess punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 17TD
3 plays · 80 yds · 1:0713% → 25%
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
87.2%
Sam Leavitt run for 11 yds to the ASU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+66
86.6%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Cam Skattebo for 66 yds to the TTU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
74.8%
Cam Skattebo run for 3 yds for a TD (Ian Hershey PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 18FG
13 plays · 43 yds · 4:5883% → 87%
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
83.3%
Behren Morton pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:29
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
83.2%
Behren Morton pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:27
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+10
82.4%
Behren Morton pass complete to Josh Kelly for 10 yds to the TTU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
84.8%
Tahj Brooks run for no gain to the TTU 45Similar
Q3 2:34
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+4
85.1%
Behren Morton pass complete to Coy Eakin for 4 yds to the TTU 49Similar
Q3 1:52
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+8
85.1%
Behren Morton pass complete to Josh Kelly for 8 yds to the ASU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
86.5%
MORTON, Behren pass deep to the right incomplete intended for DOUGLAS, Caleb broken up by ABNEY II, Keith at the ASU20, clock 01:13. PENALTY ASU Holding on ABNEY II, Keith enforced 10 yards from the ASU43 to the ASU33 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
86.8%
J'Koby Williams run for 5 yds to the ASU 28Similar
Q3 0:31
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+6
87.0%
Behren Morton pass complete to Caleb Douglas for 6 yds to the ASU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-3
87.1%
Behren Morton pass complete to Josh Kelly for a loss of 3 yards to the ASU 25Similar
Q4 14:19
2ND & 13
OPP 25
0
87.5%
Behren Morton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 13
OPP 25
+3
86.5%
Tahj Brooks run for 3 yds to the ASU 22Similar
Q4 13:36
4TH & 10
OPP 22
+40
87.4%
Reese Burkhardt 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5414% → 12%
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
86.2%
Sam Leavitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
86.4%
Sam Leavitt run for no gain to the ASU 25Similar
Q4 12:57
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
87.3%
Sam Leavitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:50
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+11
88.0%
Kanyon Floyd punt for 51 yds , Josh Kelly returns for 11 yds to the TTU 35Similar
Q4 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
88.4%
(12:39) BROOKS, Tahj rush up the middle for a gain of 22 yards to the ASU43 (ALFORD, Xavion), clock 12:33. PENALTY TTU Block below the waist on CONYERS, Jalin enforced 15 yards from the TTU35 to the TTU20 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 20FG
11 plays · 43 yds · 5:1688% → 96%
Q4 12:10
1ST & 25
OWN 20
+14
88.2%
Behren Morton pass complete to Josh Kelly for 14 yds to the TTU 34Similar
Q4 11:39
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+11
88.4%
Behren Morton pass complete to Caleb Douglas for 11 yds to the TTU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
89.8%
Tahj Brooks run for 9 yds to the ASU 46Similar
Q4 10:34
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+3
91.3%
Tahj Brooks run for 3 yds to the ASU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
92.0%
Tahj Brooks run for 2 yds to the ASU 41Similar
Q4 9:06
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+2
92.2%
J'Koby Williams run for 2 yds to the ASU 39Similar
Q4 8:19
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+16
92.1%
Cameron Dickey run for 16 yds to the ASU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
92.6%
Behren Morton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+1
93.0%
Tahj Brooks run for 1 yd to the ASU 22Similar
Q4 6:57
3RD & 9
OPP 22
0
92.8%
Behren Morton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:54
4TH & 9
OPP 22
+39
95.9%
Gino Garcia 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 21DOWNS
10 plays · 43 yds · 2:316% → 5%
Q4 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
93.7%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 8 yds to the ASU 33Similar
Q4 6:26
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
93.3%
Sam Leavitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:22
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+9
93.5%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Xavier Guillory for 9 yds to the ASU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
93.4%
Sam Leavitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:58
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+15
93.6%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Xavier Guillory for 15 yds to the TTU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
93.4%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 10 yds to the TTU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
92.9%
Sam Leavitt run for 1 yd to the TTU 32Similar
Q4 4:36
2ND & 9
OPP 32
0
93.3%
Sam Leavitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:30
3RD & 9
OPP 32
0
93.7%
Sam Leavitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:17
4TH & 9
OPP 32
0
95.1%
Sam Leavitt pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · -8 yds · 0:1897% → 99%
Q4 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
96.9%
Tahj Brooks run for no gain to the TTU 32Similar
Q4 4:06
3RD & 10
OWN 32
-8
96.8%
Behren Morton run for a loss of 8 yards to the TTU 24Similar
Q4 4:05
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
96.9%
Tahj Brooks run for no gain to the TTU 32Similar
Q4 3:55
4TH & 18
OWN 24
0
98.5%
Jack Burgess punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Melquan Stovall at the ASU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 23TD
11 plays · 67 yds · 2:116% → 17%
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
94.5%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Cam Skattebo for 13 yds to the ASU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+19
94.4%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Cam Skattebo for 19 yds to the TTU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
94.0%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Kyson Brown for 7 yds to the TTU 28Similar
Q4 2:51
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+13
93.6%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Kyson Brown for 13 yds to the TTU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
93.6%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Kyson Brown for 3 yds to the TTU 12Similar
Q4 2:09
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+6
93.6%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 6 yds to the TTU 6Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 1
OPP 6
+3
94.1%
Cam Skattebo run for 3 yds to the TTU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
93.6%
Sam Leavitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
93.9%
Sam Leavitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
82.8%
Cam Skattebo run for 3 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 24END OF GAME
3 plays · -3 yds · 1:0498% → 98%
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
98.2%
(01:36) [NH] Kneel down by TTU at ASU43 (team loss of 1), clock 01:32.Similar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 11
OPP 43
-1
98.4%
(00:55) [NH] Kneel down by TTU at ASU44 (team loss of 1), clock 00:45.Similar
Q4 0:32
3RD & 12
OPP 44
-1
98.4%
(00:32) [NH] Kneel down by TTU at ASU45 (team loss of 1), clock 00:26.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:33
Sam Leavitt run for 1 yd for a TD (Ian Hershey KICK)
-12.6
TD · Q3 3:39
Cam Skattebo run for 3 yds for a TD (Ian Hershey PAT BLOCKED)
-11.8
TD · Q4 1:39
Cam Skattebo run for 3 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-11
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com