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BAY

Baylor 31 at Colorado 38

COLO
2024 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2024 · Folsom Field
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Win probability · COLO
modelCOLO aheadBAY aheadconfidence bandkey playCOLO scoreBAY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+0.1COLO 56.4%Isaiah Hankins 32 yd FG GOODAWAY 3 - HOME 0 · Q1 8:13
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:13 · Isaiah Hankins 32 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 15Home team on offense−0.8Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−0.4Pregame prior+6.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:26: Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 30 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK) — BAY win probability +6.6 pts (now 48%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:19: S. Robertson run for 45 yds for a TD (I. Hankins KICK) — BAY win probability +6.5 pts (now 66%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:50: S. Sanders pass to O. Miller for 58 yds for a TD (A. Mata KICK) — COLO win probability +12.8 pts (now 44%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:00: M. Welch run for 2 yds for a TD (A. Mata KICK) — COLO win probability +20.9 pts (now 64%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:43: S. Robertson pass to H. Presley for 24 yds for a TD (I. Hankins KICK) — BAY win probability +31.4 pts (now 87%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
COLO made the numbers' call on 9 of 9BAY made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 13:20BAY 4th & 4 at BAY 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.1%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:34COLO 4th & 8 at COLO 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.6%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:13BAY 4th & 6 at COLO 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.2%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.2%
    83% to make
    Punt
    41.2%−1.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:27COLO 4th & 11 at COLO 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%−1.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:44BAY 4th & 2 at BAY 45, up 3
    Close callPunted · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.7%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:55COLO 4th & 9 at BAY 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.4%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.8%
    66% to make
    Punt
    48.5%−5.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:58COLO 4th & 9 at COLO 26, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%−1.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:19BAY 4th & 1 at COLO 45, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    55.6%−1.7
    25% to make
    Punt
    56.0%−1.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:39COLO 4th & 6 at COLO 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.1%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:47BAY 4th & 9 at BAY 26, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.6%−1.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.9%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:25BAY 4th & 4 at BAY 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.5%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:22COLO 4th & 9 at midfield, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:49BAY 4th & 1 at COLO 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    60.7%−4.6
    32% to make
    Punt
    61.4%−4.0
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:46COLO 4th & 8 at COLO 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.3%−1.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.9%
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:37BAY 4th & 8 at BAY 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.8%−2.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.2%
    average punt
  16. Q3 0:00BAY 4th & 15 at BAY 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.6%−5.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:21COLO 4th & 8 at BAY 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.2%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    58.3%−0.9
    45% to make
    Punt
    56.3%−2.8
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:19BAY 4th & 12 at COLO 28, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.6%−0.9
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.5%
    60% to make
    Punt
    88.2%−3.4
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:18COLO 4th & 1 at BAY 46, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    6.5%−1.1
    23% to make
    Punt
    6.0%−1.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
COLO made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BAY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 1:56COLO Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:26BAY Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:50COLO Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:00COLO Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.9%−0.3
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:43BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BAYDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:4043% → 43%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
56.8%
Bryson Washington run for 3 yds to the BAY 28Similar
Q1 14:40
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
56.8%
Bryson Washington run for no gain to the BAY 28Similar
Q1 14:03
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+3
56.9%
Bryson Washington run for 3 yds to the BAY 31Similar
Q1 13:20
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
57.0%
Palmer Williams punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 2:3557% → 57%
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
56.9%
Micah Welch run for 12 yds to the COLO 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
57.0%
Micah Welch run for 2 yds to the COLO 34Similar
Q1 12:08
2ND & 8
OWN 34
-2
57.0%
Shedeur Sanders sacked by Keaton Thomas for a loss of 2 yards to the COLO 32Similar
Q1 11:31
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+5
56.8%
Baylor Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the COLO 37Similar
Q1 11:13
3RD & 5
OWN 37
-3
57.0%
Micah Welch run for a loss of 3 yards to the COLO 34Similar
Q1 10:34
4TH & 8
OWN 34
+54
56.7%
Mark Vassett punt for 58 yds , Josh Cameron returns for 54 yds to the COLO 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 3FG
5 plays · 23 yds · 2:0244% → 44%
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+19
56.5%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Hal Presley for 19 yds to the COLO 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
56.3%
Bryson Washington run for 3 yds to the COLO 16Similar
Q1 9:27
2ND & 7
OPP 16
0
56.3%
Bryson Washington run for no gain to the COLO 16Similar
Q1 8:50
3RD & 7
OPP 16
+1
56.3%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Bryson Washington for 1 yd to the COLO 15Similar
Q1 8:13
4TH & 6
OPP 15
+32
56.4%
Isaiah Hankins 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 4TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 6:1656% → 60%
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
56.4%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 11 yds to the COLO 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
56.5%
Micah Welch run for 2 yds to the COLO 38Similar
Q1 6:58
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+6
56.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 6 yds to the COLO 44Similar
Q1 6:24
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+3
56.9%
Isaiah Augustave run for 3 yds to the COLO 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
56.9%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 7
50
+2
57.0%
Isaiah Augustave run for 2 yds to the BAY 48Similar
Q1 4:42
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+24
56.8%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 24 yds to the BAY 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+10
57.5%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Drelon Miller for 10 yds to the BAY 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-10
57.5%
(03:43) AUGUSTAVE, Isaiah rush to the right for a gain of 14 yards to the BAY0, TOUCHDOWN COLO, score nullified by penalty, clock 03:39 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY COLO Holding on JOHNSON, Tyler enforced 10 yards from the BAY14 to the BAY24 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 3:35
1ST & 20
OPP 24
+8
57.4%
Shedeur Sanders run for 8 yds to the BAY 16Similar
Q1 2:46
2ND & 12
OPP 16
+5
57.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Sav'ell Smalls for 5 yds to the BAY 11Similar
Q1 2:05
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+9
56.4%
(02:05) SANDERS, Shedeur pass to the right incomplete intended for HUNTER, Travis thrown to the BAY0, clock 02:01. PENALTY BAY Pass Interference on JOHNSON, Lorando enforced 9 yards to the BAY2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 1:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
60.4%
Shedeur Sanders run for 2 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 5TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:2941% → 48%
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
58.8%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 2 yds to the BAY 27Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
58.7%
Sawyer Robertson run for 5 yds to the BAY 32Similar
Q1 0:53
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+19
58.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Dominic Richardson for 19 yds to the COLO 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-3
57.3%
Dominic Richardson run for a loss of 3 yards to the BAY 48Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 48
0
58.3%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 13
OWN 48
+22
59.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr. for 22 yds to the COLO 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:26
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
52.4%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 30 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:5955% → 53%
Q2 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
54.5%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
54.3%
Micah Welch run for a loss of 1 yard to the COLO 24Similar
Q2 13:40
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
53.4%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:27
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
53.0%
Mark Vassett punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3847% → 46%
Q2 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
53.5%
Bryson Washington run for 3 yds to the BAY 40Similar
Q2 12:56
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+4
52.9%
Bryson Washington run for 4 yds to the BAY 44Similar
Q2 12:26
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+1
52.9%
Bryson Washington run for 1 yd to the BAY 45Similar
Q2 11:44
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
53.7%
Palmer Williams punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 8FG
11 plays · 55 yds · 4:4054% → 58%
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
54.0%
Isaiah Augustave run for 5 yds to the COLO 25Similar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+9
54.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 9 yds to the COLO 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
54.2%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 12 yds to the COLO 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
55.5%
(09:52) SANDERS, Shedeur pass deep to the left incomplete intended for HORN JR., Jimmy thrown to the BAY10, clock 09:43. PENALTY BAY Pass Interference on LEMEAR, Devin enforced 15 yards to the BAY39 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
56.0%
Isaiah Augustave run for 5 yds to the BAY 34Similar
Q2 9:11
2ND & 5
OPP 34
-1
56.8%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Sam Hart for a loss of 1 yard to the BAY 35Similar
Q2 8:31
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+9
55.4%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 9 yds to the BAY 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
55.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:48
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+1
55.5%
Micah Welch run for 1 yd to the BAY 25Similar
Q2 7:03
3RD & 9
OPP 25
0
54.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:55
4TH & 9
OPP 25
+43
58.0%
Alejandro Mata 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4543% → 42%
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
43.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
43.1%
Isaiah Augustave run for 1 yd to the COLO 26Similar
Q2 6:02
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
41.9%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:58
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+17
41.7%
Mark Vassett punt for 45 yds , Josh Cameron returns for 17 yds to the BAY 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 10TD
4 plays · 54 yds · 1:2459% → 66%
Q2 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
40.9%
Dominic Richardson run for 6 yds to the COLO 48Similar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 4
OPP 48
0
40.3%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:15
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+3
40.8%
Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the COLO 45Similar
Q2 4:19
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+45
34.3%
S. Robertson run for 45 yds for a TD (I. Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4034% → 33%
Q2 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
34.3%
Isaiah Augustave run for 4 yds to the COLO 29Similar
Q2 3:51
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
34.0%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:45
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
33.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:39
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
33.3%
Mark Vassett punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Josh Cameron at the BAY 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4366% → 66%
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
33.7%
Richard Reese run for 1 yd to the BAY 26Similar
Q2 3:02
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
33.6%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:52
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
33.5%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:47
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
34.1%
Palmer Williams punt for 52 yds , LaJohntay Wester returns for no gain to the COLO 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 13TD
7 plays · 78 yds · 1:4833% → 44%
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
32.7%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Micah Welch for a loss of 1 yard to the COLO 21Similar
Q2 2:01
2ND & 11
OWN 21
+14
31.8%
Shedeur Sanders run for 14 yds to the COLO 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
32.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-10
31.8%
(01:41) SANDERS, Shedeur sacked for a loss of 1 yard at the COLO34 (RANDOLPH, Garmon), clock 01:34. PENALTY COLO Holding on SEATON, Jordan enforced 10 yards from the COLO35 to the COLO25 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 20
OWN 25
+17
31.5%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 17 yds to the COLO 42Similar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+58
44.3%
S. Sanders pass to O. Miller for 58 yds for a TD (A. Mata KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:1861% → 61%
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
39.1%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 6 yds to the BAY 41Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 4
OWN 41
-4
37.4%
Sawyer Robertson sacked by Shane Cokes for a loss of 4 yards to the BAY 37Similar
Q2 0:31
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+4
39.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 4 yds to the BAY 41Similar
Q2 0:25
4TH & 4
OWN 41
+8
39.5%
Palmer Williams punt for 42 yds , LaJohntay Wester returns for 8 yds to the COLO 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
42.4%
(00:15) [NH] Kneel down by SANDERS, Shedeur at COLO24 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 16PUNT
10 plays · 25 yds · 3:3843% → 40%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
42.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
42.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Will Sheppard for 5 yds to the COLO 30Similar
Q3 14:25
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+11
42.1%
Shedeur Sanders run for 11 yds to the COLO 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-7
44.5%
Shedeur Sanders sacked by Garmon Randolph for a loss of 7 yards to the COLO 34Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 17
OWN 34
+15
42.0%
(13:30) SANDERS, Shedeur pass deep to the right incomplete intended for SHEPPARD, Will thrown to the BAY40, clock 13:22. PENALTY BAY Roughing the Passer on THOMAS, Keaton enforced 15 yards from the COLO34 to the COLO49 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
44.9%
Isaiah Augustave run for 4 yds to the BAY 47Similar
Q3 12:52
2ND & 6
OPP 47
-6
45.2%
Shedeur Sanders sacked by Carl Williams IV for a loss of 6 yards to the COLO 47Similar
Q3 12:34
3RD & 12
OWN 47
-10
41.5%
(12:34) SANDERS, Shedeur scrambles to the right for a gain of 27 yards to the BAY26 (BOBBY, Devyn), clock 12:24. PENALTY COLO Holding on SEATON, Jordan enforced 10 yards from the COLO47 to the COLO37 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:06
3RD & 22
OWN 37
+13
39.9%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Omarion Miller for 13 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:22
4TH & 9
50
0
40.4%
Mark Vassett punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Josh Cameron at the BAY 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 17DOWNS
12 plays · 49 yds · 4:2760% → 65%
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
39.6%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:09
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+3
39.9%
Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the BAY 12Similar
Q3 10:28
3RD & 7
OWN 12
+16
40.1%
Sawyer Robertson run for 16 yds to the BAY 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
37.9%
(10:03) ROBERTSON, Sawyer pass to the left complete for -4 yards to BALDWIN, Monaray caught at the BAY23 and advanced to the BAY24 (HUNTER, Travis), clock 09:51. PENALTY Before the snap, COLO Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the BAY28 to the BAY33. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 9:41
1ST & 5
OWN 33
+7
36.7%
Dominic Richardson run for 7 yds to the BAY 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
35.5%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:09
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+7
36.1%
Dominic Richardson run for 7 yds to the BAY 47Similar
Q3 8:39
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+3
35.4%
Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
50
0
33.3%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:53
2ND & 10
50
+2
33.3%
Richard Reese run for 2 yds to the COLO 48Similar
Q3 7:22
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+7
33.5%
Sawyer Robertson run for 7 yds to the COLO 41Similar
Q3 6:49
4TH & 1
OPP 41
-1
34.6%
Sawyer Robertson run for a loss of 1 yard to the COLO 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5841% → 37%
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
41.2%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:33
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
39.9%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:28
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+2
38.6%
Shedeur Sanders run for 2 yds to the COLO 44Similar
Q3 5:46
4TH & 8
OWN 44
0
37.4%
Mark Vassett punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 2:0065% → 66%
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
35.0%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 7 yds to the BAY 27Similar
Q3 5:18
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+4
33.3%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 4 yds to the BAY 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
33.1%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 3 yds to the BAY 34Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 7
OWN 34
-1
32.5%
Dawson Pendergrass run for a loss of 1 yard to the BAY 33Similar
Q3 3:41
3RD & 8
OWN 33
0
33.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:37
4TH & 8
OWN 33
-4
34.5%
Palmer Williams punt for 43 yds , LaJohntay Wester returns for a loss of 4 yards to the COLO 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 20TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:2837% → 64%
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+46
36.7%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 46 yds to the BAY 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
43.2%
Shedeur Sanders run for no gain to the BAY 34Similar
Q3 2:08
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
42.9%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:00
3RD & 10
OPP 34
-5
39.8%
Colorado Penalty, Illegal Snap on ZILINSKAS, Hank enforced (Hank Zilinskas) to the BAY 39Similar
Q3 1:56
3RD & 15
OPP 39
+31
37.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 31 yds to the BAY 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
42.8%
Micah Welch run for 6 yds to the BAY 2Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
63.7%
M. Welch run for 2 yds for a TD (A. Mata KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:5549% → 43%
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
50.8%
Monaray Baldwin run for no gain to the BAY 40Similar
Q3 0:14
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
51.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:13
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
53.3%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:10
4TH & 10
OWN 40
-5
55.8%
Baylor Penalty, False Start (Josh White) to the BAY 35Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 15
OWN 35
+3
56.7%
Palmer Williams punt for 55 yds , Jimmy Horn Jr. returns for 3 yds to the COLO 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 22DOWNS
11 plays · 48 yds · 5:3857% → 59%
Q4 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
57.4%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 4 yds to the COLO 17Similar
Q4 14:21
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+13
57.5%
Shedeur Sanders run for 13 yds to the COLO 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
58.0%
Isaiah Augustave run for 5 yds to the COLO 35Similar
Q4 13:11
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+6
60.0%
Isaiah Augustave run for 6 yds to the COLO 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
60.8%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Drelon Miller for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 1
50
+13
62.7%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 13 yds to the BAY 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
63.1%
Isaiah Augustave run for 2 yds to the BAY 35Similar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+3
64.4%
Jimmy Horn Jr. run for 3 yds to the BAY 32Similar
Q4 9:52
3RD & 5
OPP 32
-3
62.9%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Isaiah Augustave for a loss of 3 yards to the BAY 35Similar
Q4 9:21
4TH & 8
OPP 35
-4
58.6%
Shedeur Sanders sacked by Kaian Roberts-Day for a loss of 4 yards to the BAY 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 23TD
8 plays · 61 yds · 3:3051% → 87%
Q4 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
48.9%
Bryson Washington run for 1 yd to the BAY 40Similar
Q4 8:44
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+8
49.5%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr. for 8 yds to the BAY 48Similar
Q4 8:17
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+3
47.4%
Bryson Washington run for 3 yds to the COLO 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+13
46.1%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Bryson Washington for 13 yds to the COLO 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
44.7%
Dominic Richardson run for 1 yd to the COLO 35Similar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+3
42.8%
Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the COLO 32Similar
Q4 6:20
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+8
44.5%
Dominic Richardson run for 8 yds to the COLO 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
13.1%
S. Robertson pass to H. Presley for 24 yds for a TD (I. Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 24PUNT
4 plays · -21 yds · 1:3313% → 10%
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
13.0%
Shedeur Sanders sacked by Keaton Thomas for a loss of 7 yards to the COLO 18Similar
Q4 5:04
2ND & 17
OWN 18
-14
12.2%
Shedeur Sanders sacked by Steve Linton for a loss of 14 yards to the COLO 4Similar
Q4 4:17
3RD & 31
OWN 4
0
10.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:10
4TH & 31
OWN 4
+20
9.6%
Mark Vassett punt for 42 yds , Josh Cameron returns for 20 yds to the COLO 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 25MISSED FG
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:3591% → 93%
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
8.6%
Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the COLO 24Similar
Q4 3:14
2ND & 8
OPP 24
-5
7.3%
Sawyer Robertson run for a loss of 5 yards to the COLO 29Similar
Q4 2:30
3RD & 13
OPP 29
+1
6.4%
Dominic Richardson run for 1 yd to the COLO 28Similar
Q4 2:19
4TH & 12
OPP 28
+45
6.9%
Isaiah Hankins 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 26TD
14 plays · 72 yds · 2:156% → 5%
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-3
6.2%
Shedeur Sanders sacked by Matt Jones for a loss of 3 yards to the COLO 25Similar
Q4 1:59
2ND & 13
OWN 25
+5
3.9%
(01:59) SANDERS, Shedeur pass short to the right incomplete intended for HUNTER, Travis thrown to the COLO30, clock 01:55. PENALTY BAY Offsides on MARSHALL, Jackie enforced 5 yards from the COLO25 to the COLO30 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+15
4.2%
(01:56) SANDERS, Shedeur pass deep to the right incomplete intended for HUNTER, Travis thrown to the BAY31, clock 01:48. PENALTY BAY Pass Interference on LEMEAR, Devin enforced 15 yards to the COLO45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-9
4.5%
Shedeur Sanders sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the COLO 36 Shedeur Sanders fumbled, recovered by COLO Shedeur Sanders , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 19
OWN 36
-5
3.3%
Colorado Penalty, False Start (Jordan Seaton) to the COLO 31Similar
Q4 0:54
2ND & 24
OWN 31
+17
3.1%
Shedeur Sanders run for 17 yds to the COLO 48Similar
Q4 0:46
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+6
3.4%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 6 yds to the BAY 46Similar
Q4 0:18
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+3
3.6%
Shedeur Sanders run for 3 yds to the BAY 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
5.0%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:08
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
4.7%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+43
4.5%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 43 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 27TD
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
21.1%
Isaiah Augustave run for 3 yds to the BAY 22Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+8
21.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Drelon Miller for 8 yds to the BAY 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
21.1%
Shedeur Sanders run for 5 yds to the BAY 9Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+4
21.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 4 yds to the BAY 5Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+3
19.2%
Shedeur Sanders run for 3 yds to the BAY 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
21.6%
Isaiah Augustave run for 1 yd to the BAY 1Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
21.1%
Micah Welch run for 1 yd for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 28END OF HALF
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
12.7%
Sawyer Robertson run for 6 yds to the COLO 19Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+2
12.2%
Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the COLO 17Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+2
12.6%
Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the COLO 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+13
12.5%
Sawyer Robertson run for 13 yds to the COLO 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
12.9%
Dominic Richardson run for 1 yd to the COLO 0 Dominic Richardson fumbled, recovered by BAY for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+87.1
TD · Q4 5:43
S. Robertson pass to H. Presley for 24 yds for a TD (I. Hankins KICK)
-31.4
TD · Q3 1:00
M. Welch run for 2 yds for a TD (A. Mata KICK)
+20.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com