2024 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2024 · Nippert Stadium
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Win probability · CIN
modelCIN aheadHOU aheadconfidence bandkey playCIN scoreHOU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:47 · Nathan Hawks 34 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame prior
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 2:57: Corey Kiner run for 44 yds for a TD (Nathan Hawks KICK) — CIN win probability +5.7 pts (now 67%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:27: Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 15 yds for a TD (Nathan Hawks KICK) — CIN win probability +13.8 pts (now 87%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 6:26: Donovan Smith pass complete to Maliq Carr for a loss of 3 yards to the HOU 22 — HOU win probability +3.3 pts (now 16%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 4:22: Corey Kiner run for 2 yds to the CIN 49 — CIN win probability +3.0 pts (now 89%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:09: Brendan Sorsby run for 8 yds for a TD (Nathan Hawks KICK) — CIN win probability +3.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CIN made the numbers' call on 4 of 5HOU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
- Q1 13:29CIN 4th & 3 at CIN 33, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 61.5% before the snapGo for it61.6%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call61.6%average punt
- Q1 5:18HOU 4th & 19 at HOU 38, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.7% before the snapGo for it34.4%−0.511% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.9%average punt
- Q2 13:41HOU 4th & 9 at CIN 14, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.6% before the snapGo for it27.6%−0.829% to convertField goalTheir call28.4%84% to makePunt23.4%−5.1average punt
- Q2 4:30HOU 4th & 12 at HOU 23, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.0% before the snapGo for it10.8%−1.622% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.3%average punt
- Q2 1:51CIN 4th & 4 at HOU 28, up 21Close callKicked a field goal · 91.2% before the snapGo for it90.8%48% to convertField goalTheir call90.4%−0.460% to makePunt86.9%−4.0average punt
- Q2 0:21HOU 4th & 2 at HOU 42, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.7% before the snapGo for it9.4%−<0.157% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.5%average punt
- Q3 5:53HOU 4th & 2 at CIN 48, down 31Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.0%−0.1average punt
- Q3 3:09HOU 4th & 10 at CIN 45, down 31Close callWent for it · 0.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.4%−<0.130% to convertField goal0.3%−0.125% to makePunt0.4%average punt
- Q3 1:26CIN 4th & 13 at CIN 42, up 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snapGo for it99.5%−0.120% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.7%average punt
- Q4 13:43HOU 4th & 1 at CIN 39, down 31Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%70% to convertField goal0.0%−0.236% to makePunt0.1%−0.2average punt
- Q4 11:37CIN 4th & 1 at CIN 41, up 31Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.8%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt99.7%−0.1average punt
- Q4 3:47CIN 4th & 16 at HOU 16, up 31Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.114% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%81% to makePunt99.5%−0.4average punt
- Q4 2:52HOU 4th & 10 at HOU 20, down 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.127% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CIN made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 10:46CIN Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call62.7%97% to makeGo for two62.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:57CIN Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call70.6%97% to makeGo for two70.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:27CIN Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.5%97% to makeGo for two88.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:09CIN Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.1%97% to makeGo for two99.1%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCINDrive 1PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2356% → 56%
Q1 13:29
4TH & 3
OWN 33
+10
56.4%
Mason Fletcher punt for 49 yds , Mekhi Mews returns for 10 yds to the HOU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 2INT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:0944% → 43%
CINDrive 3TD4 plays · 45 yds · 1:1857% → 59%
HOUDrive 4PUNT10 plays · 13 yds · 5:2842% → 39%
Q1 8:39
2ND & 3
OWN 42
-1
58.4%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Parker Jenkins for a loss of 1 yard to the HOU 41Similar
Q1 7:58
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+6
58.7%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Stacy Sneed for 6 yds to the HOU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:07
3RD & 12
OWN 45
-7
60.0%
Donovan Smith run for a loss of 7 yards to the HOU 38 Donovan Smith fumbled, recovered by HOU Donovan Smith D. Smith return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q1 5:18
4TH & 19
OWN 38
0
60.9%
Liam Dougherty punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Donovan Smith at the CIN 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 5TD5 plays · 80 yds · 2:1760% → 67%
Q1 3:51
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+6
60.6%
(03:51) SORSBY, Brendan pass to the left incomplete intended for GROVER, Gavin thrown to the CIN35, clock 03:45. PENALTY HOU Pass Interference on MCLAURIN, Hershey enforced at the spot of the foul for 6 yards to the CIN34 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+22
61.1%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Joe Royer for 22 yds to the HOU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 6MISSED FG10 plays · 77 yds · 4:1134% → 33%
CINDrive 7TD15 plays · 80 yds · 7:0969% → 87%
Q2 13:05
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
69.2%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Barry Jackson Jr. for 5 yds to the CIN 25Similar
Q2 12:25
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+9
69.2%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Joe Royer for 9 yds to the CIN 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:46
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+10
71.3%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Tyrin Smith for 10 yds to the CIN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+6
72.8%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Kalen Carroll for 6 yds to the HOU 46Similar
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
73.9%
(08:18) SORSBY, Brendan pass deep to the right incomplete intended for HENDERSON, Xzavier thrown to the HOU10, clock 08:14. PENALTY HOU Holding on DAVIS, Kriston enforced 10 yards from the HOU44 to the HOU34 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 7:38
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+10
73.3%
(07:38) SORSBY, Brendan pass to the right incomplete intended for TURNER, Aaron broken up by WILK, Teagan at the HOU23, clock 07:35. PENALTY HOU Holding on WILK, Teagan enforced 10 yards from the HOU33 to the HOU23 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+13
73.5%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Corey Kiner for 13 yds to the HOU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
73.6%
Brendan Sorsby sacked by Xavier Stillman for a loss of 5 yards to the HOU 15Similar
Q2 6:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
+15
87.4%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 15 yds for a TD (Nathan Hawks KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 8PUNT4 plays · -2 yds · 1:5616% → 14%
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
84.1%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Maliq Carr for a loss of 3 yards to the HOU 22Similar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 13
OWN 22
-1
84.9%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for a loss of 1 yard to the HOU 21Similar
Q2 4:30
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
86.0%
Liam Dougherty punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Tyrin Smith at the CIN 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 9FG7 plays · 25 yds · 2:3189% → 91%
Q2 3:46
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+17
89.8%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Tony Johnson for 17 yds to the HOU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 10PUNT8 plays · 21 yds · 1:2411% → 10%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
89.0%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Stephon Johnson for 3 yds to the HOU 24Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+6
89.1%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Stacy Sneed for 6 yds to the HOU 30Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
89.2%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Jonah Wilson for no gain to the HOU 34Similar
Q2 0:36
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+8
90.0%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Maliq Carr for 8 yds to the HOU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 11END OF HALF1 play · 0 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
92.5%
(00:12) [NHSG] Kneel down by SORSBY, Brendan at CIN6 (team loss of 0), clock 00:06.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 12FUMBLE6 plays · 64 yds · 1:4210% → 10%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
90.2%
Re'Shaun Sanford II run for 18 yds to the HOU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
90.0%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Re'Shaun Sanford II for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:43
2ND & 3
50
+15
89.0%
(13:43) SMITH, Donovan pass deep to the left incomplete intended for JOHNSON, Stephon thrown to the CIN33, clock 13:40. PENALTY CIN Pass Interference on YOUNG, Jordan enforced 15 yards to the CIN35 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 13:17
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+20
89.7%
Re'Shaun Sanford II run for 20 yds to the CIN 11 fumbled, recovered by CIN Trevon Gola-Callard T. Gola-Callard return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 13TD9 plays · 89 yds · 3:5892% → 99%
HOUDrive 14DOWNS10 plays · 30 yds · 5:511% → 1%
Q3 4:35
2ND & 8
OPP 43
-7
98.8%
Zeon Chriss sacked by Kameron Wilson for a loss of 7 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 15PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 1:37100% → 100%
Q3 1:26
4TH & 13
OWN 42
+2
99.5%
Mason Fletcher punt for 37 yds , Mekhi Mews returns for 2 yds to the HOU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 16DOWNS6 plays · 45 yds · 2:340% → 0%
Q3 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+16
99.7%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Re'Shaun Sanford II for 16 yds to the CIN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:43
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+7
99.7%
Re'Shaun Sanford II run for 7 yds to the CIN 32 fumbled, recovered by CIN Jordan Robinson J. Robinson return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 17FG17 plays · 52 yds · 9:24100% → 100%
Q4 12:32
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+10
99.7%
Brady Lichtenberg pass complete to Joe Royer for 10 yds to the CIN 41Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+7
99.8%
Brady Lichtenberg pass complete to Devyn Zahursky for 7 yds to the HOU 33Similar
Q4 6:48
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+8
99.9%
Brady Lichtenberg pass complete to Sterling Berkhalter for 8 yds to the HOU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
99.9%
Brady Lichtenberg run for a loss of 5 yards to the HOU 7 Brady Lichtenberg fumbled, recovered by CIN Brady Lichtenberg B. Lichtenberg return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q4 4:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
-4
99.9%
Brady Lichtenberg sacked by Anthony Holmes Jr. and Quindario Lee for a loss of 4 yards to the HOU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:470% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 19END OF GAME5 plays · 11 yds · 2:28100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:27
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 15 yds for a TD (Nathan Hawks KICK)
+13.8
TD · Q1 2:57
Corey Kiner run for 44 yds for a TD (Nathan Hawks KICK)
+5.7
TD · Q3 9:09
Brendan Sorsby run for 8 yds for a TD (Nathan Hawks KICK)
+3.7