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Win probability · WYO
modelWYO aheadBYU aheadconfidence bandkey playWYO scoreBYU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:20 · Sam Vander Haar punt for 45 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 5:58: Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Keanu Hill for 20 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK) — BYU win probability +1.1 pts (now 79%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:12: Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Kody Epps for 3 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK) — BYU win probability +5.9 pts (now 83%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:11: Evan Svoboda run for 2 yds for a TD (John Hoyland KICK) — WYO win probability +8.3 pts (now 28%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 14:45: DJ Jones run for 4 yds to the WYO 29 — BYU win probability +8.8 pts (now 88%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q4 6:29: Evan Svoboda 1 Yd Run (John Hoyland Kick) — WYO win probability +2.7 pts (now 3%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WYO made the numbers' call on 9 of 10BYU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
- Q1 14:15WYO 4th & 11 at WYO 24, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 27.8% before the snapGo for it27.7%−0.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.9%average punt
- Q1 14:15BYU 4th & 2 at WYO 42, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call72.2%57% to convertField goal72.1%−0.230% to makePunt72.1%−0.1average punt
- Q1 9:22WYO 4th & 5 at WYO 6, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 29.8% before the snapGo for it29.7%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.8%average punt
- Q1 9:22BYU 4th & 5 at WYO 39, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call70.1%42% to convertField goal70.0%−0.136% to makePunt70.0%−0.1average punt
- Q1 4:14WYO 4th & 9 at WYO 26, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.4% before the snapGo for it28.3%−0.430% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.7%average punt
- Q1 2:20BYU 4th & 7 at BYU 43, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.2% before the snapGo for it71.2%−0.337% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call71.6%average punt
- Q2 13:35WYO 4th & 1 at WYO 35, down 7Close callPunted · 29.1% before the snapGo for it29.9%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.1%−0.9average punt
- Q2 4:11BYU 4th & 4 at BYU 22, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.3% before the snapGo for it70.0%−0.447% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call70.4%average punt
- Q2 2:49WYO 4th & 14 at WYO 29, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.3% before the snapGo for it25.6%−1.518% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.1%average punt
- Q2 0:45BYU 4th & 8 at WYO 31, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.0% before the snapGo for it73.6%−0.634% to convertField goalTheir call74.2%54% to makePunt72.4%−1.8average punt
- Q2 0:16WYO 4th & 12 at WYO 23, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.8% before the snapGo for it21.3%−1.422% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.7%average punt
- Q3 13:49WYO 4th & 6 at WYO 29, down 19Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.9% before the snapGo for it14.0%−0.439% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.3%average punt
- Q3 9:42BYU 4th & 12 at WYO 19, up 19Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.0% before the snapGo for it89.5%−1.421% to convertField goalTheir call90.9%77% to makePunt85.7%−5.2average punt
- Q3 7:19WYO 4th & 19 at WYO 31, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.2% before the snapGo for it7.6%−3.111% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.6%average punt
- Q3 5:45BYU 4th & 1 at BYU 29, up 20Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 94.6% before the snapGo for it96.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.2%−1.9average punt
- Q3 2:35WYO 4th & 3 at BYU 23, down 20Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call6.1%52% to convertField goal5.4%−0.770% to makePunt-0.7%−6.8average punt
- Q4 11:39BYU 4th & 3 at BYU 32, up 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snapGo for it99.6%−0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.6%average punt
- Q4 6:29WYO 4th & 1 at BYU 1, down 27Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.7%59% to convertField goal0.5%−0.294% to makePunt-0.3%−1.0average punt
- Q4 0:00BYU 4th & 1 at WYO 21, up 20Close callWent for it · 99.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.2%−0.371% to convertField goal99.5%74% to makePunt98.9%−0.6average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WYO made the numbers' call on 2 of 2BYU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 5:58BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call70.4%97% to makeGo for two70.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:12BYU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call75.4%97% to makeGo for two75.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:11WYO Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call27.1%97% to makeGo for two27.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:02BYU Touchdown, up 26 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.2%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:29WYO Touchdown, down 21 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call1.6%97% to makeGo for two1.5%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWYODrive 1PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 0:4520% → 20%
BYUDrive 2INT9 plays · 50 yds · 3:4080% → 78%
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+23
20.3%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Chase Roberts for 23 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
50
-10
20.3%
RETZLAFF, Jake pass to the right complete for 7 yards to ROBERTS, Chase caught at the WYO43 and advanced to the WYO43 (WHITE, Isaac;SUIAUNOA, Shae). PENALTY BYU Holding enforced 10 yards from the BYU50 to the BYU40 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 20
OWN 40
+11
20.3%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Chase Roberts for 11 yds to the WYO 49Similar
Q1 14:15
4TH & 2
OPP 42
+8
20.3%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Keanu Hill for 8 yds to the WYO 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+10
20.3%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Miles Davis for 10 yds to the WYO 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
21.7%
Jake Retzlaff pass intercepted Wrook Brown return for no gain to the WYO 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 3PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1322% → 23%
BYUDrive 4TD7 plays · 44 yds · 3:2478% → 79%
Q1 9:22
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+5
22.5%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Jojo Phillips for 5 yds to the WYO 39Similar
Q1 9:22
4TH & 5
OPP 39
+8
22.6%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Keanu Hill for 8 yds to the WYO 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:22
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+6
22.2%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Parker Kingston for 6 yds to the WYO 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
21.2%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Keanu Hill for 20 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 5PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 1:4422% → 22%
Q1 5:58
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
22.1%
SVOBODA, Evan pass short to the right complete for 5 yards to BROWN, Alex caught at the WYO31 and advanced to the WYO32 (WAKLEY, Crew). PENALTY WYO Personal Foul enforced half the distance from the goal, 13 yards from the WYO27 to the WYO14 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:58
2ND & 21
OWN 14
+12
22.0%
Evan Svoboda pass complete to Jaylen Sargent for 12 yds to the WYO 26Similar
Q1 4:14
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
22.0%
Jack Culbreath punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Parker Kingston at the BYU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 6PUNT7 plays · 14 yds · 1:5478% → 78%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 7PUNT7 plays · 23 yds · 3:4523% → 23%
BYUDrive 8TD10 plays · 74 yds · 4:2377% → 83%
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
23.0%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Kody Epps for 7 yds to the BYU 33Similar
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+17
22.2%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Jojo Phillips for 17 yds to the WYO 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+22
22.1%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Chase Roberts for 22 yds to the WYO 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
21.9%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Darius Lassiter for 1 yd to the WYO 17Similar
Q2 9:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
16.8%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Kody Epps for 3 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 9TD11 plays · 75 yds · 4:0118% → 28%
Q2 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
18.3%
Evan Svoboda pass complete to Clay Nanke for 24 yds to the WYO 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:12
2ND & 9
50
+5
19.4%
Evan Svoboda pass complete to Justin Stevenson for 5 yds to the BYU 45Similar
Q2 9:12
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+5
19.4%
Evan Svoboda pass complete to Will Pelissier for 5 yds to the BYU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:12
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+10
19.3%
BYU Penalty, Defensive Holding (Kody Epps) to the BYU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+11
19.9%
Evan Svoboda pass complete to Tyler King for 11 yds to the BYU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+15
19.9%
Evan Svoboda pass complete to Alex Brown for 15 yds to the BYU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5376% → 74%
WYODrive 11PUNT4 plays · -4 yds · 1:2225% → 24%
BYUDrive 12FG9 plays · 43 yds · 2:0477% → 80%
WYODrive 13PUNT6 plays · -2 yds · 0:2921% → 20%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 14END OF HALF1 play · -3 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 15PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5612% → 12%
Q3 13:49
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
11.7%
Jack Culbreath punt for 35 yds , Parker Kingston returns for no gain to the BYU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 16FG9 plays · 45 yds · 4:0791% → 94%
Q3 13:49
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+11
9.0%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Keelan Marion for 11 yds to the WYO 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+30
8.7%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Chase Roberts for 30 yds to the WYO 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:51
3RD & 2
OPP 9
-10
6.8%
MOA, Sione I rush to the left for a gain of 9 yards to the WYO0, TOUCHDOWN BYU, score nullified by penalty, clock 09:51 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY BYU Holding enforced 10 yards from the WYO9 to the WYO19 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 17PUNT7 plays · 6 yds · 2:239% → 8%
BYUDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3494% → 95%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 19DOWNS10 plays · 19 yds · 3:108% → 6%
Q3 4:07
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+3
6.2%
Evan Svoboda pass complete to Devin Boddie Jr. for 3 yds to the BYU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 20TD7 plays · 77 yds · 2:3398% → 99%
Q3 2:35
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+24
2.3%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Parker Kingston for 24 yds to the BYU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+30
2.0%
RETZLAFF, Jake pass to the right incomplete intended for HILL, Keanu thrown to the WYO39. PENALTY WYO Pass Interference on DAVIS, Tyrecus declined WYO Targeting on BROWN, Wrook enforced 15 yards from the BYU47 to the WYO38 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 2:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-10
1.7%
QB Keeper RETZLAFF, Jake rush to the left for a gain of 3 yards to the WYO7 (SHAY, Connor). PENALTY BYU Holding on COLLINS, Marque enforced 10 yards from the WYO10 to the WYO20 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 0:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 20
+20
0.8%
Darius Lassiter 20 Yd pass from Jake Retzlaff (Will Ferrin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 21INT4 plays · 12 yds · 1:382% → 1%
BYUDrive 22PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:43100% → 100%
Q4 13:22
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
0.5%
QB Keeper RETZLAFF, Jake rush to the right for a gain of 40 yards to the WYO30 (WHITE, Isaac). PENALTY BYU Holding declined BYU Holding enforced 10 yards from the BYU30 to the BYU20 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 23TD15 plays · 76 yds · 5:101% → 3%
Q4 11:39
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+36
0.5%
Evan Svoboda pass complete to Tyler King for 36 yds to the BYU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:39
3RD & 9
OPP 16
-10
0.6%
SVOBODA, Evan pass to the right complete for 2 yards to FERRELL, Jamari caught at the BYU17 and advanced to the BYU14 (ALEXANDER, Therrian). PENALTY WYO Holding on BARNETT, Caden enforced 10 yards from the BYU16 to the BYU26 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:35
3RD & 19
OPP 26
+5
0.3%
SVOBODA, Evan pass deep to the right intercepted by DAMUNI, Raider at the BYU4. Damuni return for 0 yards to the BYU4, End of Play, clock 07:35. PENALTY BYU Offsides enforced 5 yards from the BYU26 to the BYU21 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:35
3RD & 14
OPP 21
+15
0.3%
SVOBODA, Evan pass deep to the left incomplete intended for DURR, Chris thrown to the BYU0. PENALTY BYU Pass Interference on KABEYA, Jonathan enforced at the spot of the foul for 15 yards to the BYU6 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
0.3%
Evan Svoboda pass complete to Chris Durr Jr. for 4 yds to the BYU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 24END OF GAME11 plays · 57 yds · 6:2999% → 99%
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q3 14:45
DJ Jones run for 4 yds to the WYO 29
-8.8
TD · Q2 5:11
Evan Svoboda run for 2 yds for a TD (John Hoyland KICK)
+8.3
TD · Q2 9:12
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Kody Epps for 3 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)
-5.9