Try the model
UTAH

Utah 38 at Utah State 21

USU
2024 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2024 · Maverik Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · USU
modelUSU aheadUTAH aheadconfidence bandkey playUSU scoreUTAH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:53 · Jack Bouwmeester punt for 51 yds , Robert Freeman IV returns for 15 yds to the USU 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 11Pregame prior−41.1Home team on offense+0.0Score differential−0.2Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:11: Isaac Wilson pass complete to Money Parks for 11 yds for a TD (Cole Becker KICK) — UTAH win probability +4.6 pts (now 81%) (top driver: Deficit intensified by the shrinking clock).
  2. TD · Q2 1:19: Isaac Wilson pass complete to Caleb Lohner for 11 yds for a TD (Cole Becker KICK) — UTAH win probability +9.2 pts (now 82%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:04: Micah Bernard run for 3 yds for a TD (Isaac Wilson pass to Brant Kuithe for Two-Point Conversion) — UTAH win probability +11.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:55: Bryson Barnes run for 1 yd for a TD (Elliott Nimrod KICK) — USU win probability +17.8 pts (now 28%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:50: Isaac Wilson pass complete to Carsen Ryan for 2 yds for a TD (Cole Becker KICK) — UTAH win probability +10.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USU made the numbers' call on 8 of 12UTAH made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 14:01USU 4th & 2 at USU 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:53UTAH 4th & 13 at UTAH 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.0%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:31USU 4th & 1 at UTAH 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    12.3%−0.2
    28% to make
    Punt
    12.4%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:31UTAH 4th & 5 at USU 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 85.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    85.3%−0.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    85.4%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:19USU 4th & 12 at USU 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.8%−0.4
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.2%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:50UTAH 4th & 8 at USU 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.5%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.7%
    74% to make
    Punt
    82.6%−1.1
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:02UTAH 4th & 3 at UTAH 32, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.5%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:09USU 4th & 14 at UTAH 25, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.7%−0.9
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.5%
    66% to make
    Punt
    22.3%−3.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:33UTAH 4th & 7 at USU 33, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    72.3%−0.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    71.6%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:16USU 4th & 6 at USU 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.1%−1.0
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:25UTAH 4th & 6 at USU 6, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.4%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    66.5%−8.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:48USU 4th & 20 at USU 12, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.1%−3.6
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:37USU 4th & 1 at USU 46, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.3%−1.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:16USU 4th & 5 at UTAH 18, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.8%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    10.9%
    79% to make
    Punt
    7.2%−3.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:48USU 4th & 9 at UTAH 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.7%−1.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.9%
    64% to make
    Punt
    13.8%−8.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:50UTAH 4th & 2 at USU 2, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    81.1%−1.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    73.4%−9.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:12USU 4th & 11 at USU 24, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.4%−0.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.0%
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:15UTAH 4th & 9 at UTAH 30, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.8%−0.7
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.5%
    average punt
  19. Q4 8:17USU 4th & 6 at USU 34, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.7%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.8%
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:31UTAH 4th & 1 at USU 1, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.4%−1.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    92.4%−4.2
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:14USU 4th & 16 at UTAH 32, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.1%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    2.1%
    51% to make
    Punt
    1.9%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UTAH made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 0:46USU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:15USU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:11UTAH Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:19UTAH Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:04UTAH Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    87.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    87.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:55USU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:50UTAH Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USUDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:578% → 9%
Q1 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
8.3%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Jalen Royals for 5 yds to the USU 30Similar
Q1 14:42
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
8.4%
Bryson Barnes pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:37
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+5
8.4%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Otto Tia for 5 yds to the USU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
8.6%
Bryson Barnes pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+8
8.6%
Rahsul Faison run for 8 yds to the USU 43Similar
Q1 14:04
3RD & 2
OWN 43
0
8.7%
Bryson Barnes pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:01
4TH & 2
OWN 43
+2
8.7%
Ryan Marks punt for 40 yds , Mycah Pittman returns for 2 yds to the UTAH 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 2:1091% → 90%
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
8.7%
Micah Bernard run for no gain to the UTAH 19Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 10
OWN 19
-1
8.9%
Dijon Stanley run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTAH 18Similar
Q1 12:33
3RD & 11
OWN 18
-2
9.3%
Isaac Wilson pass complete to Micah Bernard for a loss of 2 yards to the UTAH 16Similar
Q1 11:53
4TH & 13
OWN 16
+15
9.6%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 51 yds , Robert Freeman IV returns for 15 yds to the USU 48Similar
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
9.7%
(11:40) BARNES, Bryson pass short to the left complete for 7 yards to ROYALS, Jalen caught at the UTA47 and advanced to the UTA45 (VAUGHN, Zemaiah), clock 11:35. PENALTY Before the snap, USU Illegal Shift enforced 5 yards from the USU48 to the USU43. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 3INT
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:0810% → 11%
Q1 11:28
1ST & 15
OWN 43
+9
9.7%
Rahsul Faison run for 9 yds to the UTAH 48Similar
Q1 11:09
2ND & 6
OPP 48
0
10.0%
Bryson Barnes pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:06
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+5
9.9%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Otto Tia for 5 yds to the UTAH 43Similar
Q1 10:31
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+3
10.2%
Rahsul Faison run for 3 yds to the UTAH 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
10.4%
Rahsul Faison run for 6 yds to the UTAH 34Similar
Q1 9:47
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+3
10.7%
Bryson Barnes run for 3 yds to the UTAH 31Similar
Q1 9:20
3RD & 1
OPP 31
0
10.8%
Bryson Barnes pass intercepted, touchback. Smith Snowden return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 4PUNT
10 plays · 37 yds · 3:4489% → 88%
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
10.6%
Isaac Wilson pass complete to Money Parks for 5 yds to the UTAH 25Similar
Q1 8:36
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
10.7%
Isaac Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:30
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+15
10.9%
(08:30) WILSON, Isaac pass deep to the left incomplete intended for KUITHE, Brant thrown to the UTA45, clock 08:26. PENALTY USU Pass Interference on HARRIS, Simeon enforced 15 yards to the UTA40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
10.7%
Micah Bernard run for 7 yds to the UTAH 47Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+1
10.9%
Isaac Wilson run for 1 yd to the UTAH 48Similar
Q1 7:04
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+4
11.2%
Mike Mitchell run for 4 yds to the USU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
11.3%
Mike Mitchell run for 4 yds to the USU 44Similar
Q1 6:13
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+1
11.5%
Mike Mitchell run for 1 yd to the USU 43Similar
Q1 5:34
3RD & 5
OPP 43
0
11.9%
Isaac Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:31
4TH & 5
OPP 43
0
12.1%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 30 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:0612% → 13%
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
12.3%
Rahsul Faison run for 5 yds to the USU 18Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 5
OWN 18
0
12.5%
Bryson Barnes pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:54
3RD & 5
OWN 18
-5
12.4%
Utah State Penalty, Illegal Snap on ALO, Falepule enforced (-5 Yards) to the USU 13Similar
Q1 4:54
3RD & 10
OWN 13
-2
12.3%
Bryson Barnes run for a loss of 2 yards to the USU 11Similar
Q1 4:19
4TH & 12
OWN 11
+12
12.5%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 49 yds , Rayshawn Glover returns for 12 yds to the USU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 6FG
6 plays · 27 yds · 2:1788% → 87%
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+25
12.4%
Isaac Wilson pass complete to Dorian Singer for 25 yds to the USU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
12.6%
Mike Mitchell run for 5 yds to the USU 18Similar
Q1 2:42
2ND & 5
OPP 18
0
12.8%
Isaac Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:32
3RD & 5
OPP 18
-3
13.1%
Micah Bernard run for a loss of 3 yards to the USU 21Similar
Q1 1:50
4TH & 8
OPP 21
+39
13.4%
Cole Becker 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 7TD
4 plays · 77 yds · 1:0114% → 17%
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
13.6%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Jalen Royals for 5 yds to the USU 28Similar
Q1 1:41
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+13
13.7%
Rahsul Faison run for 13 yds to the USU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+39
14.4%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Otto Tia for 39 yds to the UTAH 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
17.2%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Broc Lane for 20 yds for a TD (Elliott Nimrod KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:4284% → 83%
Q1 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
16.5%
Isaac Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:41
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
16.6%
Isaac Wilson pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 7 yds to the UTAH 32Similar
Q1 0:05
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
17.0%
Isaac Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:02
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+16
17.4%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 35 yds , Robert Freeman IV returns for 16 yds to the USU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 9TD
4 plays · 51 yds · 0:4318% → 22%
Q2 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
17.5%
Bryson Barnes pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+4
17.4%
Bryson Barnes run for 4 yds to the UTAH 47Similar
Q2 14:36
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+35
17.7%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Jalen Royals for 35 yds to the UTAH 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
22.1%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Jack Hestera for 12 yds for a TD (Elliott Nimrod KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 10TD
8 plays · 76 yds · 3:5979% → 81%
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
21.3%
Isaac Wilson pass complete to Dorian Singer for 6 yds to the UTAH 30Similar
Q2 13:31
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+18
21.9%
Mike Mitchell run for 18 yds to the UTAH 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
22.1%
(12:59) WILSON, Isaac pass deep to the right incomplete intended for PARKS, Money thrown to the USU10, clock 12:52. PENALTY USU Pass Interference on DICKERSON, Avante enforced 15 yards to the USU37 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+17
22.0%
Micah Bernard run for 17 yds to the USU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
22.1%
Isaac Wilson pass complete to Micah Bernard for 5 yds to the USU 15Similar
Q2 11:29
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+6
22.9%
Dijon Stanley run for 6 yds to the USU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-2
23.9%
Mike Mitchell run for a loss of 2 yards to the USU 11Similar
Q2 10:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
19.2%
Isaac Wilson pass complete to Money Parks for 11 yds for a TD (Cole Becker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 11MISSED FG
8 plays · 50 yds · 3:0021% → 23%
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
20.6%
Rahsul Faison run for 1 yd to the USU 26Similar
Q2 9:53
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+17
20.9%
Bryson Barnes run for 17 yds to the USU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
22.2%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Grant Page for 9 yds to the UTAH 48Similar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+27
23.2%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Jack Hestera for 27 yds to the UTAH 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-1
24.1%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Grant Page for a loss of 1 yard to the UTAH 22Similar
Q2 8:09
2ND & 11
OPP 22
+4
25.1%
Rahsul Faison run for 4 yds to the UTAH 18Similar
Q2 7:49
3RD & 7
OPP 18
-7
24.9%
run for a loss of 7 yards to the UTAH 25Similar
Q2 7:09
4TH & 14
OPP 25
+35
23.4%
Elliott Nimrod 35 yd FG BLOCKED blocked bySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 12DOWNS
7 plays · 42 yds · 2:3476% → 74%
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
24.2%
Micah Bernard run for 5 yds to the UTAH 30Similar
Q2 6:31
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
24.3%
Isaac Wilson pass complete to Dorian Singer for 6 yds to the UTAH 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+28
24.8%
Isaac Wilson pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 28 yds to the USU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
24.1%
Isaac Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:14
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+3
24.2%
Micah Bernard run for 3 yds to the USU 33Similar
Q2 4:38
3RD & 7
OPP 33
0
24.9%
Isaac Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:33
4TH & 7
OPP 33
0
26.2%
Isaac Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 13INT
4 plays · 27 yds · 1:1627% → 31%
Q2 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
27.1%
Rahsul Faison run for 2 yds to the USU 35Similar
Q2 3:58
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+25
27.5%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Otto Tia for 25 yds to the UTAH 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
30.1%
Rahsul Faison run for no gain to the UTAH 40Similar
Q2 3:08
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-34
30.6%
Bryson Barnes pass intercepted Cameron Calhoun return for 34 yds to the UTAH 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 14TD
5 plays · 51 yds · 1:3674% → 82%
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+20
26.5%
Isaac Wilson pass complete to Dorian Singer for 20 yds to the USU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
26.1%
Isaac Wilson pass complete to Dorian Singer for 9 yds to the USU 22Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 1
OPP 22
0
25.6%
Isaac Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:53
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+11
26.7%
Mike Mitchell run for 11 yds to the USU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
17.6%
Isaac Wilson pass complete to Caleb Lohner for 11 yds for a TD (Cole Becker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:0322% → 21%
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
21.5%
Rahsul Faison run for 7 yds to the USU 32Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
23.3%
Bryson Barnes run for 2 yds to the USU 34Similar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
22.8%
Bryson Barnes run for no gain to the USU 34Similar
Q2 0:16
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-5
21.6%
Utah State Penalty, False Start (Gabriel Iniguez Jr.) to the USU 29Similar
Q2 0:16
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
21.2%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Mycah Pittman at the UTAH 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 16END OF HALF
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0879% → 80%
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
21.1%
Charlie Vincent run for 6 yds to the UTAH 31Similar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
19.5%
Isaac Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-1
20.1%
(00:04) Kneel down by UTA at UTA30 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 17FG
9 plays · 69 yds · 5:3379% → 82%
Q3 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+33
20.6%
Isaac Wilson pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 33 yds to the USU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+12
19.3%
Isaac Wilson pass complete to Mycah Pittman for 12 yds to the USU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+13
19.1%
Isaac Wilson pass complete to Money Parks for 13 yds to the USU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
19.4%
Isaac Wilson pass complete to Dijon Stanley for no gain to the USU 17Similar
Q3 12:11
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+11
19.8%
Isaac Wilson run for 11 yds to the USU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
20.0%
Isaac Wilson sacked by Gabe Peterson and Miguel Jackson for a loss of 5 yards to the USU 11Similar
Q3 10:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+3
20.6%
Mike Mitchell run for 3 yds to the USU 8Similar
Q3 10:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
21.7%
Isaac Wilson run for 2 yds to the USU 6Similar
Q3 9:25
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+25
17.6%
Cole Becker 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:3221% → 19%
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
20.8%
Utah State Penalty, False Start (Aloali'i Maui) to the USU 17Similar
Q3 9:20
1ST & 15
OWN 17
+3
20.6%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Jack Hestera for 3 yds to the USU 20Similar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 12
OWN 20
-8
20.7%
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete Utah State Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Bryson Barnes) to the USU 12Similar
Q3 8:53
3RD & 20
OWN 12
0
19.8%
Bryson Barnes pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:48
4TH & 20
OWN 12
0
19.4%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 58 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 19TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 4:3582% → 93%
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
18.1%
Isaac Wilson pass complete to Carsen Ryan for 11 yds to the UTAH 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
17.1%
Mike Mitchell run for 8 yds to the UTAH 49Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+20
16.9%
Isaac Wilson pass complete to Money Parks for 20 yds to the USU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+8
16.8%
Mike Mitchell run for 8 yds to the USU 23Similar
Q3 6:12
2ND & 2
OPP 23
+17
16.9%
Isaac Wilson pass complete to Luca Caldarella for 17 yds to the USU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
17.0%
Micah Bernard run for a loss of 2 yards to the USU 8Similar
Q3 4:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
16.7%
Micah Bernard run for 5 yds to the USU 3Similar
Q3 4:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
7.0%
Micah Bernard run for 3 yds for a TD (Isaac Wilson pass to Brant Kuithe for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 20TD
10 plays · 63 yds · 3:0410% → 28%
Q3 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-4
10.2%
Rahsul Faison run for a loss of 4 yards to the USU 33Similar
Q3 3:28
2ND & 14
OWN 33
-1
9.6%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Jalen Royals for a loss of 1 yard to the USU 32Similar
Q3 3:11
3RD & 15
OWN 32
+14
9.4%
Bryson Barnes run for 14 yds to the USU 46Similar
Q3 2:37
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+31
10.6%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Colby Bowman for 31 yds to the UTAH 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-5
11.5%
Utah State Penalty, False Start (Aloali'i Maui) to the UTAH 28Similar
Q3 1:59
1ST & 15
OPP 28
-3
11.1%
Bryson Barnes sacked by Van Fillinger and Logan Fano for a loss of 3 yards to the UTAH 31Similar
Q3 1:29
2ND & 18
OPP 31
0
10.8%
Bryson Barnes pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:27
3RD & 18
OPP 31
+13
10.2%
Rahsul Faison run for 13 yds to the UTAH 18Similar
Q3 1:16
4TH & 5
OPP 18
+17
10.6%
Rahsul Faison run for 17 yds to the UTAH 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
28.4%
Bryson Barnes run for 1 yd for a TD (Elliott Nimrod KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 21INT
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:3881% → 82%
Q3 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
18.7%
Micah Bernard run for 2 yds to the UTAH 27Similar
Q3 0:18
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-15
18.5%
Isaac Wilson pass intercepted Spencer Fano return for 15 yds to the UTAH 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 22MISSED FG
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:1827% → 22%
Q3 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
26.9%
Bryson Barnes pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+1
26.7%
Rahsul Faison run for 1 yd to the UTAH 26Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 26
0
24.8%
Bryson Barnes pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:48
4TH & 9
OPP 26
+43
22.2%
Elliott Nimrod 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 23TD
5 plays · 74 yds · 2:5183% → 95%
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+64
17.2%
Micah Bernard run for 64 yds to the USU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
14.5%
Brant Kuithe run for 5 yds to the USU 5Similar
Q4 13:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
14.6%
Mike Mitchell run for 4 yds to the USU 1Similar
Q4 12:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
15.2%
Mike Mitchell run for a loss of 1 yard to the USU 2Similar
Q4 11:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
4.9%
Isaac Wilson pass complete to Carsen Ryan for 2 yds for a TD (Cole Becker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:389% → 7%
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
9.1%
(11:50) FAISON, Rahsul rush to the right for a gain of 8 yards to the USU33 (BARTON, Lander;GILMAN, Alaka'i), clock 11:43. PENALTY USU Holding on ANDERSEN, Teague enforced 10 yards from the USU25 to the USU15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 11:33
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+1
8.9%
Rahsul Faison run for 1 yd to the USU 16Similar
Q4 11:02
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+8
8.6%
Bryson Barnes run for 8 yds to the USU 24Similar
Q4 10:21
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
6.9%
Bryson Barnes pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:12
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
7.1%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 47 yds, downed at the UTAH 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4897% → 97%
Q4 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
3.2%
Micah Bernard run for 1 yd to the UTAH 30Similar
Q4 9:26
2ND & 9
OWN 30
0
3.0%
Isaac Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:23
3RD & 9
OWN 30
0
3.1%
Isaac Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:15
4TH & 9
OWN 30
0
3.1%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Robert Freeman IV at the USU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 26DOWNS
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:527% → 6%
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
6.8%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Otto Tia for 4 yds to the USU 34Similar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 6
OWN 34
0
6.3%
Bryson Barnes pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:45
3RD & 6
OWN 34
0
6.0%
Rahsul Faison run for no gain to the USU 34Similar
Q4 8:17
4TH & 6
OWN 34
0
5.8%
Bryson Barnes pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 27FG
9 plays · 33 yds · 4:4297% → 99%
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
2.6%
Mike Mitchell run for 5 yds to the USU 29Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+7
2.5%
Mike Mitchell run for 7 yds to the USU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
2.3%
Micah Bernard run for 7 yds to the USU 15Similar
Q4 6:01
2ND & 3
OPP 15
+5
2.1%
Micah Bernard run for 5 yds to the USU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
2.1%
Micah Bernard run for 9 yds to the USU 1Similar
Q4 4:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-3
1.8%
Micah Bernard run for a loss of 3 yards to the USU 4Similar
Q4 3:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
1.6%
Micah Bernard run for 3 yds to the USU 1Similar
Q4 3:31
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+18
1.5%
Cole Becker 18 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 28DOWNS
9 plays · 47 yds · 3:153% → 2%
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
2.5%
Jacob Conover pass complete to Broc Lane for 4 yds to the USU 29Similar
Q4 3:03
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
2.4%
Jacob Conover pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:01
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+18
2.4%
Jacob Conover pass complete to Broc Lane for 18 yds to the USU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
2.5%
Jacob Conover pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+27
2.5%
Rahsul Faison run for 27 yds to the UTAH 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-2
2.7%
Jacob Conover run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTAH 28 Jacob Conover fumbled, recovered by USU Jacob Conover J. Conover return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q4 1:28
2ND & 12
OPP 28
-6
2.5%
Jacob Conover sacked by Keanu Tanuvasa for a loss of 6 yards to the UTAH 34Similar
Q4 0:46
3RD & 18
OPP 34
+2
2.3%
Rahsul Faison run for 2 yds to the UTAH 32Similar
Q4 0:14
4TH & 16
OPP 32
+4
2.2%
Jacob Conover run for 4 yds to the UTAH 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 29END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
1.1%
(00:06) [SG] Kneel down by UTA at UTA27 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:55
Bryson Barnes run for 1 yd for a TD (Elliott Nimrod KICK)
+17.8
TD · Q3 4:04
Micah Bernard run for 3 yds for a TD (Isaac Wilson pass to Brant Kuithe for Two-Point Conversion)
-11.3
TD · Q4 11:50
Isaac Wilson pass complete to Carsen Ryan for 2 yds for a TD (Cole Becker KICK)
-10.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com