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OKST

Oklahoma State 45 at Tulsa 10

TLSA
2024 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2024 · Chapman Stadium
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Win probability · TLSA
modelTLSA aheadOKST aheadconfidence bandkey playTLSA scoreOKST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:04 · Ollie Gordon II run for 2 yds to the TLSA 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+58.5+29.30−29.3−58.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 106Home team on offense−39.4Pregame prior−19.2Score differential−21.7Garbage-time factor−10.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 8:38: Brennan Presley 1 Yd pass from Alan Bowman (Logan Ward Kick) — OKST win probability +1.0 pts (now 86%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:47: De'Zhaun Stribling 8 Yd pass from Alan Bowman (Logan Ward Kick) — OKST win probability +3.2 pts (now 87%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 9:05: Talyn Shettron 78 Yd pass from Alan Bowman (Logan Ward Kick) — OKST win probability +5.6 pts (now 92%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 3:23: Josh Ford 18 Yd pass from Alan Bowman (Logan Ward Kick) — OKST win probability +2.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:19: De'Zhaun Stribling 63 Yd pass from Alan Bowman (Logan Ward Kick) — OKST win probability +0.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TLSA made the numbers' call on 10 of 12OKST made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 10:28OKST 4th & 1 at TLSA 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.0%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    84.8%−0.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    84.4%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:34TLSA 4th & 7 at OKST 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.8%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.8%
    62% to make
    Punt
    15.0%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:07OKST 4th & 3 at OKST 34, up 7
    Close callPunted · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:45TLSA 4th & 11 at TLSA 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.8%−0.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:23TLSA 4th & 5 at OKST 48, down 14
    Close callPunted · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:53TLSA 4th & 20 at OKST 32, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.8%−0.5
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    9.4%
    51% to make
    Punt
    9.0%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:07TLSA 4th & 1 at TLSA 22, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:18TLSA 4th & 10 at OKST 48, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.8%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:20TLSA 4th & 14 at OKST 45, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    2.2%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:04OKST 4th & 1 at TLSA 40, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    97.8%−0.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    97.8%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:50TLSA 4th & 18 at TLSA 34, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:14TLSA 4th & 5 at OKST 25, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    1.0%−<0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:53OKST 4th & 7 at TLSA 26, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.2%
    64% to make
    Punt
    98.8%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:43TLSA 4th & 11 at TLSA 24, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:43TLSA 4th & 11 at TLSA 24, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:05OKST 4th & 1 at TLSA 1, up 38
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.7%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    99.5%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    99.0%−0.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:15TLSA 4th & 14 at OKST 25, down 45
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.2%
    66% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:25OKST 4th & 10 at OKST 19, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TLSA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1OKST made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 8:38OKST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:47OKST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:05OKST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:23OKST Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:19OKST Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:05OKST Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:55TLSA Touchdown, down 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OKSTDrive 1TD
18 plays · 75 yds · 6:1187% → 86%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
13.4%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ollie Gordon II for 4 yds to the OKST 29Similar
Q1 14:32
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
13.5%
Alan Bowman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:23
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+9
13.6%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan Presley for 9 yds to the OKST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
13.8%
Ollie Gordon II run for 4 yds to the OKST 42Similar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+10
13.9%
Ollie Gordon II run for 10 yds to the TLSA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
14.0%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Rashod Owens for 7 yds to the TLSA 41Similar
Q1 12:51
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+2
14.2%
Ollie Gordon II run for 2 yds to the TLSA 39Similar
Q1 12:30
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+2
14.3%
Ollie Gordon II run for 2 yds to the TLSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+22
14.6%
Brennan Presley run for 22 yds to the TLSA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
14.7%
Alan Bowman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:16
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+6
14.8%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan Presley for 6 yds to the TLSA 9Similar
Q1 10:46
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+3
15.0%
Ollie Gordon II run for 3 yds to the TLSA 6Similar
Q1 10:28
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+2
15.3%
Ollie Gordon II run for 2 yds to the TLSA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
15.3%
Ollie Gordon II run for no gain to the TLSA 4Similar
Q1 9:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
15.5%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan Presley for 3 yds to the TLSA 1Similar
Q1 8:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
14.5%
Brennan Presley 1 Yd pass from Alan Bowman (Logan Ward Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 2MISSED FG
10 plays · 48 yds · 3:0115% → 16%
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
14.9%
(08:37) Shotgun Francis,Kirk pass incomplete short left to Benjamin,Kamdyn thrown to TLS34 PENALTY OSU Pass Interference (Smith,Cam) 7 yards from TLS25 to TLS32, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+21
15.0%
Anthony Watkins run for 21 yds to the OKST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
15.5%
Anthony Watkins run for 7 yds to the OKST 40Similar
Q1 7:26
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+2
15.7%
Lloyd Avant run for 2 yds to the OKST 38Similar
Q1 6:57
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+8
15.9%
Lloyd Avant run for 8 yds to the OKST 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
16.2%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:16
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+3
16.2%
Lloyd Avant run for 3 yds to the OKST 27Similar
Q1 5:38
3RD & 7
OPP 27
0
16.2%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:34
4TH & 7
OPP 27
+44
15.9%
Seth Morgan 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2285% → 84%
Q1 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
15.5%
Alan Bowman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:17
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+5
15.8%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan Presley for 5 yds to the OKST 32Similar
Q1 4:42
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+2
15.7%
Ollie Gordon II run for 2 yds to the OKST 34Similar
Q1 4:07
4TH & 3
OWN 34
0
15.9%
Wes Pahl punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Kamdyn Benjamin at the TLSA 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:1616% → 16%
Q1 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
16.0%
Anthony Watkins run for 1 yd to the TLSA 15Similar
Q1 3:47
2ND & 9
OWN 15
-5
16.0%
PENALTY TLS False Start (Stanton,Kaden) 5 yards from TLS15 to TLS10. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:17
2ND & 14
OWN 10
+3
16.1%
Anthony Watkins run for 3 yds to the TLSA 13Similar
Q1 2:58
3RD & 11
OWN 13
0
16.0%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:45
4TH & 11
OWN 13
0
15.9%
Angus Davies punt for 51 yds , Brennan Presley returns for no gain to the OKST 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 5TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 4:5084% → 87%
Q1 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
16.0%
Sesi Vailahi run for 2 yds to the OKST 33Similar
Q1 2:05
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+25
16.5%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Rashod Owens for 25 yds to the TLSA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-10
15.6%
(01:50) No Huddle-Shotgun Bowman,Alan pass complete deep left to Stribling,De'Zhaun caught at TLS10, for 34 yards to the TLS08, out of bounds at TLS08 PENALTY OSU Holding (Glass,Isaia) 10 yards from TLS42 to OSU48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:15
1ST & 20
OWN 48
+10
16.1%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan Presley for 10 yds to the TLSA 42Similar
Q1 0:52
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+11
15.8%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Rashod Owens for 11 yds to the TLSA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
15.9%
Ollie Gordon II run for 2 yds to the TLSA 29Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+6
15.8%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Gavin Freeman for 6 yds to the TLSA 23Similar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 2
OPP 23
+3
16.1%
Ollie Gordon II run for 3 yds to the TLSA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
16.0%
Ollie Gordon II run for 2 yds to the TLSA 22Similar
Q2 13:16
2ND & 12
OPP 22
+14
16.2%
Alan Bowman pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 14 yds to the TLSA 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
13.1%
De'Zhaun Stribling 8 Yd pass from Alan Bowman (Logan Ward Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 2:1414% → 14%
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
14.0%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 6 yds to the TLSA 31Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+16
13.8%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 16 yds to the TLSA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
14.3%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Lloyd Avant for 4 yds to the OKST 49Similar
Q2 11:01
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+1
14.3%
Kamdyn Benjamin run for 1 yd to the OKST 48Similar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 5
OPP 48
0
14.3%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:23
4TH & 5
OPP 48
0
14.2%
Angus Davies punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Parker Robertson at the OKST 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 7TD
3 plays · 89 yds · 1:1187% → 92%
Q2 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
13.5%
Ollie Gordon II run for no gain to the OKST 11Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+11
13.3%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Talyn Shettron for 11 yds to the OKST 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+78
7.7%
Talyn Shettron 78 Yd pass from Alan Bowman (Logan Ward Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 8DOWNS
8 plays · 61 yds · 2:5910% → 10%
Q2 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
9.7%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 16 yds to the TLSA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+37
10.1%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 37 yds to the OKST 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-2
10.8%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Connor Vaughn for a loss of 2 yards to the OKST 24Similar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 12
OPP 24
+2
10.5%
Corey Smith run for 2 yds to the OKST 22Similar
Q2 6:19
3RD & 10
OPP 22
+5
10.3%
Anthony Watkins run for 5 yds to the OKST 17Similar
Q2 6:19
4TH & 5
OPP 17
-15
10.2%
PENALTY TLS UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Burnett,Reynard) 15 yards from OSU17 to OSU32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:53
4TH & 20
OPP 32
+18
9.8%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Lloyd Avant for 18 yds to the OKST 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 9TD
6 plays · 86 yds · 2:2593% → 96%
Q2 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
7.5%
Ollie Gordon II run for 5 yds to the OKST 19Similar
Q2 5:16
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+3
7.4%
Ollie Gordon II run for 3 yds to the OKST 22Similar
Q2 4:43
3RD & 2
OWN 22
+2
7.4%
Ollie Gordon II run for 2 yds to the OKST 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+35
7.0%
Alan Bowman pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 35 yds to the TLSA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+23
6.7%
Alan Bowman pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 23 yds to the TLSA 18 for a 1ST down Tulsa Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
4.2%
Josh Ford 18 Yd pass from Alan Bowman (Logan Ward Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 10PUNT
14 plays · 39 yds · 2:523% → 1%
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
3.1%
Viron Ellison Jr. run for 1 yd to the TLSA 14Similar
Q2 2:28
2ND & 9
OWN 14
-2
2.9%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Grayson Tempest for a loss of 2 yards to the TLSA 12Similar
Q2 1:49
3RD & 11
OWN 12
+10
2.4%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Viron Ellison Jr. for 10 yds to the TLSA 22Similar
Q2 1:07
4TH & 1
OWN 22
+17
1.5%
Viron Ellison Jr. run for 17 yds to the TLSA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
1.6%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+2
1.5%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Lloyd Avant for 2 yds to the TLSA 41Similar
Q2 0:42
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+11
1.4%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 11 yds to the OKST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
1.6%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
1.5%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 10
OPP 48
0
1.4%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:18
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
1.4%
Angus Davies punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OKST 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · -6 yds · 0:1597% → 97%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
3.4%
Alan Bowman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+6
3.1%
Sesi Vailahi run for 6 yds to the OKST 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 12PUNT
11 plays · 30 yds · 3:403% → 2%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
2.5%
Anthony Watkins run for 1 yd to the TLSA 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
2.5%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 8 yds to the TLSA 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
2.4%
Anthony Watkins run for 3 yds to the TLSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
2.6%
Kirk Francis run for 11 yds to the TLSA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
2.8%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Jacob Emmers for 11 yds to the OKST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
2.9%
Lloyd Avant run for 1 yd to the OKST 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 40
-5
2.8%
PENALTY TLS False Start 5 yards from OSU40 to OSU45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 45
0
2.7%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 45
0
2.7%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:20
4TH & 14
OPP 45
0
2.3%
Angus Davies punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 13DOWNS
7 plays · 38 yds · 1:1098% → 98%
Q3 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+21
2.2%
Alan Bowman pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 21 yds to the OKST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
2.1%
Alan Bowman pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 10 yds to the TLSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
2.0%
Alan Bowman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+9
2.0%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Tyler Foster for 9 yds to the TLSA 40Similar
Q3 10:12
3RD & 1
OPP 40
0
1.8%
Alan Bowman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:04
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+2
1.8%
Ollie Gordon II run for 2 yds to the TLSA 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 1:101% → 1%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
1.3%
Anthony Watkins run for 1 yd to the TLSA 43Similar
Q3 9:38
2ND & 9
OWN 43
0
1.2%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:28
3RD & 9
OWN 43
-9
1.2%
Kirk Francis sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the TLSA 34Similar
Q3 8:50
4TH & 18
OWN 34
0
1.1%
Angus Davies punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKST 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 15TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:2498% → 99%
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
1.7%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan Presley for 12 yds to the OKST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+63
1.1%
De'Zhaun Stribling 63 Yd pass from Alan Bowman (Logan Ward Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 16DOWNS
10 plays · 31 yds · 1:571% → 1%
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+18
0.9%
Viron Ellison Jr. run for 18 yds to the OKST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
1.0%
Kirk Francis run for no gain to the OKST 48Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
0.8%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:02
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+18
0.8%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Braylin Presley for 18 yds to the OKST 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
0.9%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
0.8%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:20
3RD & 10
OPP 30
0
0.8%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:20
4TH & 10
OPP 30
+5
0.8%
PENALTY OSU Offside (Walterscheid,Kody) 5 yards from OSU30 to OSU25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:14
4TH & 5
OPP 25
-10
0.7%
Kirk Francis sacked by Kendal Daniels for a loss of 10 yards to the OKST 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 17INT
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:3399% → 99%
Q3 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
0.9%
Oklahoma State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the OKST 30Similar
Q3 5:33
1ST & 15
OWN 30
0
0.9%
Alan Bowman pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 18INT
4 plays · 14 yds · 1:221% → 1%
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
0.7%
Lloyd Avant run for 2 yds to the OKST 36Similar
Q3 4:51
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+12
0.7%
Kamdyn Benjamin run for 12 yds to the OKST 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
0.7%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
0.7%
Kirk Francis pass intercepted Cam Smith return for no gain to the TLSA 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 19FG
5 plays · 3 yds · 2:0599% → 99%
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
0.7%
Sesi Vailahi run for 4 yds to the TLSA 25Similar
Q3 3:39
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+2
0.6%
Sesi Vailahi run for 2 yds to the TLSA 23Similar
Q3 2:56
3RD & 4
OPP 23
-10
0.6%
(03:06) No Huddle-Shotgun Bowman,Alan pass complete short middle to Shotomide-King,Ayo caught at TLS14, for 13 yards to the TLS10 (Potter,Gavin) PENALTY OSU Holding (Cooper,Dalton) 10 yards from TLS23 to TLS33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:23
3RD & 14
OPP 33
+7
0.6%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Sesi Vailahi for 7 yds to the TLSA 26Similar
Q3 1:53
4TH & 7
OPP 26
+43
0.7%
Logan Ward 43 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 20PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:580% → 0%
Q3 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
0.3%
Cardell Williams run for 1 yd to the TLSA 26Similar
Q3 1:05
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
0.2%
Anthony Watkins run for 2 yds to the TLSA 24Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
0.2%
Cardell Williams pass complete to Anthony Watkins for no gain to the TLSA 24Similar
Q4 14:43
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+32
0.2%
Angus Davies punt for 51 yds , Gavin Freeman returns for 32 yds to the TLSA 43Similar
Q4 14:43
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+32
0.2%
Angus Davies punt for 51 yds , Gavin Freeman returns for 32 yds to the OKST 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 21TD
15 plays · 56 yds · 4:28100% → 100%
Q4 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
0.5%
Garret Rangel pass complete to Josh Ford for 4 yds to the OKST 48Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+1
0.5%
Trent Howland run for 1 yd to the OKST 47Similar
Q4 13:26
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+11
0.4%
Garret Rangel pass complete to Josh Ford for 11 yds to the TLSA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
0.4%
Trent Howland run for 3 yds to the TLSA 39Similar
Q4 12:41
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+21
0.3%
Garret Rangel pass complete to Talyn Shettron for 21 yds to the TLSA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
0.3%
Garret Rangel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:08
2ND & 10
OPP 18
-5
0.3%
PENALTY OSU False Start 5 yards from TLS18 to TLS23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:52
2ND & 15
OPP 23
+9
0.3%
Garret Rangel run for 9 yds to the TLSA 14Similar
Q4 11:24
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+8
0.3%
Trent Howland run for 8 yds to the TLSA 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
0.3%
Garret Rangel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
0.2%
Garret Rangel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
0.2%
Garret Rangel run for 5 yds to the TLSA 1Similar
Q4 10:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.2%
Sesi Vailahi 1 Yd Run (Logan Ward Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 22FG
12 plays · 50 yds · 3:400% → 0%
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
0.1%
Cooper Legas run for 1 yd to the TLSA 24Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+1
0.1%
Cooper Legas run for 1 yd to the TLSA 25Similar
Q4 8:30
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+38
0.1%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Viron Ellison Jr. for 23 yds to the OKST 48 for a 1ST down Oklahoma State Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Kobe Hylton) to the OKST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
0.1%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Corey Smith for 7 yds to the OKST 30Similar
Q4 7:48
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+9
0.1%
Cooper Legas run for 9 yds to the OKST 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
0.1%
Lloyd Avant run for 2 yds to the OKST 19Similar
Q4 7:03
2ND & 8
OPP 19
0
0.1%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:55
3RD & 8
OPP 19
+6
0.1%
Cooper Legas run for 6 yds to the OKST 25Similar
Q4 6:15
4TH & 14
OPP 25
+43
0.1%
Seth Morgan 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 2:35100% → 100%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
0.2%
Trent Howland run for 4 yds to the OKST 12Similar
Q4 5:25
2ND & 6
OWN 12
+7
0.2%
Trent Howland run for 7 yds to the OKST 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
0.1%
Garret Rangel pass complete to Gavin Freeman for a loss of 1 yard to the OKST 18Similar
Q4 4:08
2ND & 11
OWN 18
+1
0.1%
Trent Howland run for 1 yd to the OKST 19Similar
Q4 3:33
3RD & 10
OWN 19
0
0.1%
Garret Rangel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:25
4TH & 10
OWN 19
0
0.1%
Hudson Kaak punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Kamdyn Benjamin at the TLSA 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 24TD
4 plays · 64 yds · 1:180% → 0%
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
0.0%
Stephen Kittleman run for 2 yds to the TLSA 38Similar
Q4 2:32
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+24
0.0%
Stephen Kittleman pass complete to Jacob Emmers for 24 yds to the OKST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+29
0.0%
Stephen Kittleman pass complete to Corey Smith for 29 yds to the OKST 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
0.1%
Stephen Kittleman run for 9 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 25END OF GAME
5 plays · 31 yds · 1:44100% → 100%
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
0.1%
Trent Howland run for 2 yds to the OKST 27Similar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
0.1%
Trent Howland run for 2 yds to the OKST 29Similar
Q4 0:23
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+23
0.1%
Trent Howland run for 23 yds to the TLSA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
0.1%
Trent Howland run for 4 yds to the TLSA 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:05
Talyn Shettron 78 Yd pass from Alan Bowman (Logan Ward Kick)
-5.6
TD · Q2 12:47
De'Zhaun Stribling 8 Yd pass from Alan Bowman (Logan Ward Kick)
-3.2
TD · Q2 3:23
Josh Ford 18 Yd pass from Alan Bowman (Logan Ward Kick)
-2.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com