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CIN

Cincinnati 27 at Miami (OH) 16

M-OH
2024 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2024 · Yager Stadium
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Win probability · M-OH
modelM-OH aheadCIN aheadconfidence bandkey playM-OH scoreCIN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDFGEnd of GameFG-0.6M-OH 2.6%Nathan Hawks 50 Yd Field GoalAWAY 27 - HOME 16 · Q4 0:59
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:59 · Nathan Hawks 50 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 156Home team on offense−38.4Garbage-time factor−16.4Score differential−15.6Pregame prior−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−13.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−7.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:37: Joe Royer 3 Yd pass from Brendan Sorsby (Nathan Hawks Kick) — CIN win probability +9.8 pts (now 63%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:55: Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Tony Johnson for 7 yds to the M-OH 1 — CIN win probability +10.6 pts (now 81%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:32: Brett Gabbert pass complete to Cade McDonald for 2 yds to the M-OH 37 — M-OH win probability +14.4 pts (now 34%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 13:01: Nathan Hawks kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback — CIN win probability +16.1 pts (now 91%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:57: Cade McDonald 7 Yd pass from Brett Gabbert (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — M-OH win probability +16.7 pts (now 25%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
M-OH made the numbers' call on 5 of 8CIN made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 8:44CIN 4th & 11 at CIN 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.6%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:25M-OH 4th & 3 at M-OH 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.4%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:27CIN 4th & 12 at M-OH 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.3%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.4%
    40% to make
    Punt
    53.4%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:13M-OH 4th & 6 at CIN 12, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.9%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.1%
    86% to make
    Punt
    42.7%−3.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:10CIN 4th & 10 at CIN 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.3%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:37M-OH 4th & 4 at M-OH 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    47.1%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:18M-OH 4th & 12 at CIN 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%−1.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:55CIN 4th & 1 at M-OH 11, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    64.7%−2.6
    87% to make
    Punt
    56.3%−10.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:28CIN 4th & 10 at M-OH 40, up 7
    Close callPunted · 71.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.3%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    70.8%−0.5
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    71.2%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:30M-OH 4th & 9 at M-OH 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.3%−3.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:54CIN 4th & 12 at CIN 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.0%−2.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:14M-OH 4th & 13 at M-OH 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.9%−4.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:20CIN 4th & 10 at CIN 20, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.0%−1.8
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:43M-OH 4th & 4 at CIN 12, down 8
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.4 ptsWent for it · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.8%−1.4
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    16.2%
    86% to make
    Punt
    6.8%−9.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:43M-OH 4th & 4 at CIN 12, down 8
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.4 ptsWent for it · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.8%−1.4
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    16.2%
    86% to make
    Punt
    6.8%−9.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:59CIN 4th & 3 at M-OH 32, up 8
    Close callKicked a field goal · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.6%
    53% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.4%−0.2
    51% to make
    Punt
    93.0%−1.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
M-OH made the numbers' call on 0 of 1CIN made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 10:37CIN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 7:57M-OH Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    18.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    17.6%−0.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
M-OHDrive 1INT
8 plays · 62 yds · 3:1443% → 44%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
43.0%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Cade McDonald for 9 yds to the M-OH 26Similar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 1
OWN 26
+7
43.2%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Cade McDonald for 7 yds to the M-OH 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+37
43.4%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Javon Tracy for 37 yds to the CIN 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
43.9%
Dylan Downing run for 8 yds to the CIN 22Similar
Q1 12:18
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+1
44.2%
Keyon Mozee run for 1 yd to the CIN 21Similar
Q1 11:36
3RD & 1
OPP 21
0
44.3%
Brett Gabbert pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 2PUNT
11 plays · 26 yds · 2:5256% → 55%
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
43.9%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 10 yds to the CIN 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
43.9%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 10 yds to the CIN 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
43.9%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for no gain to the CIN 30Similar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
43.9%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for no gain to the CIN 30Similar
Q1 10:53
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+5
44.1%
Evan Pryor run for 5 yds to the CIN 35Similar
Q1 10:53
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+5
44.1%
Evan Pryor run for 5 yds to the CIN 35Similar
Q1 10:17
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+12
44.2%
Corey Kiner run for 12 yds to the CIN 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
43.8%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+4
44.0%
Corey Kiner run for 4 yds to the M-OH 49Similar
Q1 8:52
3RD & 6
OPP 49
0
44.0%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:44
4TH & 11
OWN 46
0
44.8%
Mason Fletcher punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:1345% → 45%
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
44.5%
Keyon Mozee run for no gain to the M-OH 20Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+8
44.7%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Dylan Downing for 8 yds to the M-OH 28Similar
Q1 7:07
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+1
44.7%
Dylan Downing run for 1 yd to the M-OH 27Similar
Q1 6:25
4TH & 3
OWN 27
+6
44.5%
Alec Bevelhimer punt for 42 yds , Tyrin Smith returns for 6 yds to the CIN 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 4FG
8 plays · 26 yds · 2:5355% → 55%
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
44.7%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
44.9%
Brendan Sorsby run for 3 yds to the CIN 40Similar
Q1 5:25
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+11
44.9%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 11 yds to the M-OH 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+14
44.3%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Joe Royer for 14 yds to the M-OH 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
44.0%
Chance Williams run for no gain to the M-OH 35Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
44.0%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:49
3RD & 10
OPP 35
-2
44.7%
Brendan Sorsby sacked by Ty Wise for a loss of 2 yards to the M-OH 37Similar
Q1 3:27
4TH & 12
OPP 37
+55
44.9%
Nathan Hawks 55 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 5FG
10 plays · 63 yds · 4:0844% → 48%
Q1 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
43.9%
Keyon Mozee run for 4 yds to the M-OH 29Similar
Q1 2:25
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-1
44.1%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Kevin Davis for a loss of 1 yard to the M-OH 28Similar
Q1 2:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+13
43.4%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Coldiron for 13 yds to the M-OH 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+43
45.4%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Cade McDonald for 43 yds to the CIN 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-5
46.5%
PENALTY Miami Delay Of Game (Gabbert,Brett) 5 yards from UC16 to UC21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 15
OPP 21
+5
46.5%
Kevin Davis run for 5 yds to the CIN 16Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+4
46.7%
Kevin Davis run for 4 yds to the CIN 12Similar
Q2 14:17
3RD & 6
OPP 12
0
46.0%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:13
4TH & 6
OPP 12
+30
47.9%
Dom Dzioban 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:5254% → 53%
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
46.2%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 12 yds to the CIN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
45.5%
Corey Kiner run for 3 yds to the CIN 40Similar
Q2 12:57
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
45.1%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:47
3RD & 7
OWN 40
-3
45.8%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Tyrin Smith for a loss of 3 yards to the CIN 37Similar
Q2 12:10
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
47.5%
Mason Fletcher punt for 50 yds , Cade McDonald returns for no gain to the M-OH 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 7FUMBLE
4 plays · -10 yds · 1:2348% → 47%
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
47.7%
Keyon Mozee run for 1 yd to the M-OH 14Similar
Q2 11:26
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+5
47.7%
Kevin Davis run for 5 yds to the M-OH 19Similar
Q2 10:43
3RD & 4
OWN 19
0
47.1%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:37
4TH & 4
OWN 19
+16
46.6%
Alec Bevelhimer run for 16 yds to the M-OH 3 Alec Bevelhimer fumbled, recovered by CIN Marqavious SaboorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 8TD
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q2 10:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
36.8%
Joe Royer 3 Yd pass from Brendan Sorsby (Nathan Hawks Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 3:5739% → 37%
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
39.3%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Kevin Davis for 1 yd to the M-OH 21Similar
Q2 9:43
2ND & 9
OWN 21
-2
38.7%
Brett Gabbert sacked by Jared Bartlett for a loss of 2 yards to the M-OH 19Similar
Q2 8:41
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+35
37.9%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Kevin Davis for 35 yds to the CIN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
40.6%
Keyon Mozee run for 6 yds to the CIN 40Similar
Q2 7:36
2ND & 4
OPP 40
-7
40.4%
Brett Gabbert sacked by Eric Phillips for a loss of 7 yards to the CIN 47Similar
Q2 6:47
3RD & 11
OPP 47
-1
38.5%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Dylan Downing for a loss of 1 yard to the CIN 48Similar
Q2 6:18
4TH & 12
OPP 48
0
36.9%
Alec Bevelhimer punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 10FUMBLE
17 plays · 95 yds · 5:4863% → 71%
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+11
36.9%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 11 yds to the CIN 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
36.3%
Corey Kiner run for 8 yds to the CIN 24Similar
Q2 4:44
2ND & 2
OWN 24
+2
35.0%
Brendan Sorsby run for 2 yds to the CIN 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
35.5%
Corey Kiner run for 3 yds to the CIN 29Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+9
34.8%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Tony Johnson for 9 yds to the CIN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
32.8%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Tony Johnson for 10 yds to the CIN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
31.9%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Sterling Berkhalter for 6 yds to the M-OH 46Similar
Q2 2:14
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+3
31.0%
Chance Williams run for 3 yds to the M-OH 43Similar
Q2 1:54
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+2
30.7%
Corey Kiner run for 2 yds to the M-OH 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
30.5%
Corey Kiner run for no gain to the M-OH 41Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
30.7%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:53
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+13
30.9%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Tyrin Smith for 13 yds to the M-OH 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
29.5%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Jamoi Mayes for 6 yds to the M-OH 22Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+11
29.7%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 11 yds to the M-OH 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
29.6%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+11
29.4%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Joe Royer for 11 yds pass complete to for 11 yds fumbled, recovered by CINSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
34.9%
run for 2 yds to the M-OH 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 12TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:0566% → 81%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
34.1%
Corey Kiner run for 5 yds to the CIN 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+21
33.3%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 21 yds to the M-OH 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+16
31.8%
Corey Kiner run for 16 yds to the M-OH 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
31.5%
Evan Pryor run for 6 yds to the M-OH 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+2
31.4%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Tony Johnson for 2 yds to the M-OH 25Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+5
32.0%
Brendan Sorsby run for 5 yds to the M-OH 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:55
1ST & 15
OPP 25
0
30.1%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:55
2ND & 15
OPP 25
+9
30.5%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 9 yds to the M-OH 16Similar
Q3 10:55
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+5
30.6%
(10:03) PENALTY Miami Offside (Hondru,Corban) 5 yards from Miami16 to Miami11. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:55
3RD & 1
OPP 11
0
30.5%
Victor Dawson run for no gain to the M-OH 11Similar
Q3 10:55
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+3
31.9%
Brendan Sorsby run for 3 yds to the M-OH 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
29.9%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Tony Johnson for 7 yds to the M-OH 1Similar
Q3 10:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
19.3%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Tony Johnson for 7 yds to the M-OH 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 13TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:5420% → 34%
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
19.6%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Cade McDonald for 10 yds to the M-OH 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
19.8%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:32
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+2
34.2%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Cade McDonald for 2 yds to the M-OH 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 14PUNT
12 plays · 35 yds · 2:5670% → 74%
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
30.3%
Corey Kiner run for 6 yds to the CIN 31Similar
Q3 4:47
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+11
28.7%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 11 yds to the CIN 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
26.2%
Corey Kiner run for 6 yds to the CIN 48Similar
Q3 3:37
2ND & 4
OWN 48
0
25.4%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:21
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+12
25.3%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 12 yds to the M-OH 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
24.1%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:44
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
24.3%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:39
3RD & 10
OPP 40
0
24.6%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:28
4TH & 10
OPP 40
0
26.1%
Mason Fletcher punt for 29 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5231% → 29%
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
30.8%
Keyon Mozee run for 1 yd to the M-OH 12Similar
Q3 1:46
2ND & 9
OWN 12
0
30.5%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:37
3RD & 9
OWN 12
0
29.4%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:30
4TH & 9
OWN 12
+2
28.9%
Alec Bevelhimer punt for 49 yds , Tyrin Smith returns for 2 yds to the CIN 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:3076% → 73%
Q3 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
24.4%
Corey Kiner run for 1 yd to the CIN 42Similar
Q3 0:49
2ND & 9
OWN 42
0
24.4%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 9
OWN 42
-3
24.2%
Brendan Sorsby sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the CIN 39Similar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 12
OWN 39
0
27.2%
Mason Fletcher punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Cade McDonald at the M-OH 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:2928% → 25%
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
28.2%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:37
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
27.9%
Keyon Mozee run for no gain to the M-OH 19Similar
Q4 13:50
3RD & 10
OWN 19
-3
26.0%
Brett Gabbert sacked by Eric Phillips for a loss of 3 yards to the M-OH 16Similar
Q4 13:14
4TH & 13
OWN 16
0
25.3%
Alec Bevelhimer punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 18TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:5713% → 25%
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
12.9%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Andre Johnson for 7 yds to the M-OH 32Similar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+3
13.2%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Dylan Downing for 3 yds to the M-OH 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
12.7%
Brett Gabbert run for 2 yds to the M-OH 37Similar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+13
12.7%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Reggie Virgil for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:24
1ST & 10
50
+7
11.0%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Coldiron for 7 yds to the CIN 43Similar
Q4 9:57
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+6
11.6%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Cade McDonald for 6 yds to the CIN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
9.4%
Brett Gabbert run for 5 yds to the CIN 32Similar
Q4 8:38
2ND & 5
OPP 32
0
9.2%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:32
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+10
8.9%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Kevin Davis for 10 yds to the CIN 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
7.9%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
24.7%
Cade McDonald 7 Yd pass from Brett Gabbert (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 2:2686% → 89%
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
13.6%
Corey Kiner run for no gain to the CIN 20Similar
Q4 6:41
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+3
11.6%
Corey Kiner run for 3 yds to the CIN 18Similar
Q4 5:51
3RD & 12
OWN 18
+2
11.1%
Brendan Sorsby run for 2 yds to the CIN 20Similar
Q4 5:20
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
11.4%
Mason Fletcher punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Cade McDonald at the M-OH 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 20DOWNS
6 plays · 57 yds · 1:2514% → 15%
Q4 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+51
13.5%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Cade McDonald for 51 yds to the CIN 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
18.0%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
17.7%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:11
3RD & 10
OPP 18
+6
16.2%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Coldiron for 6 yds to the CIN 12Similar
Q4 3:43
4TH & 4
OPP 12
0
15.0%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:43
4TH & 4
OPP 12
0
15.0%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 21FG
12 plays · 56 yds · 2:3692% → 97%
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
8.3%
Corey Kiner run for 4 yds to the CIN 16Similar
Q4 3:20
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+5
7.2%
Corey Kiner run for 5 yds to the CIN 21Similar
Q4 2:42
3RD & 1
OWN 21
+40
6.3%
Corey Kiner run for 40 yds to the M-OH 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
3.2%
Corey Kiner run for 1 yd to the M-OH 38Similar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+2
2.8%
Corey Kiner run for 2 yds to the M-OH 36Similar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+4
2.8%
Corey Kiner run for 4 yds to the M-OH 32Similar
Q4 0:59
4TH & 3
OPP 32
+50
2.6%
Nathan Hawks 50 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 22END OF GAME
9 plays · 38 yds · 0:464% → 5%
Q4 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
3.8%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Javon Tracy for 8 yds to the M-OH 33Similar
Q4 0:38
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+6
4.1%
Henry Hesson pass complete to Reggie Virgil for 6 yds to the M-OH 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
4.3%
Henry Hesson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:28
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+4
4.3%
Henry Hesson run for 4 yds to the M-OH 43Similar
Q4 0:21
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+11
4.1%
Henry Hesson pass complete to Kevin Davis for 11 yds to the CIN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
4.8%
Henry Hesson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+9
4.6%
Henry Hesson run for 9 yds to the CIN 37Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+9
4.6%
Henry Hesson run for 9 yds to the CIN 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:57
Cade McDonald 7 Yd pass from Brett Gabbert (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
+16.7
KEY PLAY · Q4 13:01
Nathan Hawks kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-16.1
TD · Q3 6:32
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Cade McDonald for 2 yds to the M-OH 37
+14.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com