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ARIZ

Arizona 7 at Kansas State 31

KSU
2024 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2024 · Bill Snyder Family Stadium
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Win probability · KSU
modelKSU aheadARIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playKSU scoreARIZ score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:34 · Tyler Loop punt for 32 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 98Home team on offense+14.0Pregame prior+6.7Score differential+5.2Garbage-time factor+2.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:01: Avery Johnson pass complete to Will Swanson for 3 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK) — KSU win probability +5.6 pts (now 69%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  2. PUNT · Q2 14:37: Tyler Loop punt for 48 yds , Dylan Edwards returns for 71 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK) — KSU win probability +6.0 pts (now 72%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 10:01: Arizona Penalty, Face mask (8 yards) (Sterling Lane II) to the ARIZ 9 for a 1ST down — KSU win probability +4.2 pts (now 79%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:29: Avery Johnson pass complete to Brayden Loftin for 9 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK) — KSU win probability +9.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:34: DJ Giddens run for 1 yd for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK) — KSU win probability +4.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
KSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5ARIZ made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 10:52ARIZ 4th & 1 at KSU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    29.6%−0.2
    54% to make
    Punt
    29.5%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:25KSU 4th & 1 at KSU 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    66.5%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:37ARIZ 4th & 4 at ARIZ 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.6%−0.2
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:03KSU 4th & 5 at ARIZ 30, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.6%−0.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    73.8%−1.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:09ARIZ 4th & 16 at ARIZ 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.0%−0.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.8%
    average punt
  6. Q3 13:42KSU 4th & 15 at KSU 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.2%−2.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.7%
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:14ARIZ 4th & 6 at ARIZ 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.3%−1.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:34ARIZ 4th & 8 at KSU 49, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.3%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.8%
    average punt
  9. Q4 11:48ARIZ 4th & 1 at KSU 37, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    0.9%−0.5
    40% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q4 7:04KSU 4th & 2 at ARIZ 17, up 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.8%−0.2
    80% to make
    Punt
    97.9%−1.0
    average punt
  11. Q4 3:19ARIZ 4th & 10 at KSU 23, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%
    70% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:50KSU 4th & 7 at KSU 26, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:21ARIZ 4th & 2 at ARIZ 47, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.4%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ARIZ made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 7:26ARIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:01KSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:29KSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:34KSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARIZDrive 1TD
15 plays · 73 yds · 7:2631% → 36%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+10
68.8%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Montana Lemonious-Craig for 10 yds to the ARIZ 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
68.6%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+9
68.6%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 9 yds to the ARIZ 46Similar
Q1 13:20
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+14
68.4%
Quali Conley run for 14 yds to the KSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-2
68.2%
Quali Conley run for a loss of 2 yards to the KSU 42Similar
Q1 12:02
2ND & 12
OPP 42
+6
68.1%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Rayshon Luke for 6 yds to the KSU 36Similar
Q1 11:26
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+5
68.0%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Sam Olson for 5 yds to the KSU 31Similar
Q1 10:52
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+5
68.1%
Quali Conley run for 5 yds to the KSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-2
67.6%
Quali Conley run for a loss of 2 yards to the KSU 28Similar
Q1 9:34
2ND & 12
OPP 28
0
67.5%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 12
OPP 28
+16
67.8%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 16 yds to the KSU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
67.2%
Quali Conley run for 5 yds to the KSU 7Similar
Q1 8:11
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+6
67.0%
Quali Conley run for 6 yds to the KSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
64.2%
Quali Conley run for 1 yd for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 2TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 6:2265% → 69%
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
65.2%
Avery Johnson run for 3 yds to the KSU 28Similar
Q1 7:06
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
65.2%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+6
64.8%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 6 yds to the KSU 34Similar
Q1 6:25
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
64.6%
Avery Johnson run for 2 yds to the KSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
64.6%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:38
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+19
64.5%
Avery Johnson run for 19 yds to the ARIZ 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
65.1%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jadon Jackson for 8 yds to the ARIZ 37Similar
Q1 4:25
2ND & 2
OPP 37
0
65.0%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:19
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+5
64.8%
DJ Giddens run for 5 yds to the ARIZ 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
65.2%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:39
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+18
65.1%
DJ Giddens run for 18 yds to the ARIZ 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
65.0%
DJ Giddens run for 8 yds to the ARIZ 6Similar
Q1 2:21
2ND & 2
OPP 6
+1
64.4%
DJ Giddens run for 1 yd to the ARIZ 5Similar
Q1 1:44
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+2
63.6%
DJ Giddens run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
69.2%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Will Swanson for 3 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 3PUNT RETURN TD
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1934% → 28%
Q1 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
66.3%
Quali Conley run for no gain to the ARIZ 17Similar
Q1 0:21
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+6
66.3%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 6 yds to the ARIZ 23Similar
Q2 14:59
3RD & 4
OWN 23
0
66.4%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:37
4TH & 4
OWN 23
+71
72.4%
Tyler Loop punt for 48 yds , Dylan Edwards returns for 71 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 4INT
5 plays · 45 yds · 2:0528% → 29%
Q2 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+38
71.7%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 38 yds to the KSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-10
70.4%
(13:56) FIFITA, Noah pass deep to the right incomplete intended for LUKE, Rayshon thrown to the KSU21; QB hurried by PURNELL, Desmond, clock 13:51. PENALTY ARI Holding on SAVAIINAEA, Jonah enforced 10 yards from the KSU37 to the KSU47 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:50
1ST & 20
OPP 47
+11
71.0%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 11 yds to the KSU 36Similar
Q2 13:11
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+6
70.5%
Quali Conley run for 6 yds to the KSU 30Similar
Q2 12:32
3RD & 3
OPP 30
-24
70.6%
Noah Fifita pass intercepted Keenan Garber return for 24 yds to the KSU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 5MISSED FG
9 plays · 46 yds · 4:1673% → 74%
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+24
72.6%
Dylan Edwards run for 24 yds to the KSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
73.8%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:40
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+1
73.6%
Dylan Edwards run for 1 yd to the KSU 49Similar
Q2 10:57
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+16
73.0%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 16 yds to the ARIZ 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
74.5%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jayce Brown for 6 yds to the ARIZ 29Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 4
OPP 29
-5
74.8%
Kansas State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ARIZ 34Similar
Q2 9:23
2ND & 9
OPP 34
-1
74.8%
Avery Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARIZ 35Similar
Q2 8:44
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+5
74.2%
DJ Giddens run for 5 yds to the ARIZ 30Similar
Q2 8:03
4TH & 5
OPP 30
+48
74.4%
Chris Tennant 48 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 6PUNT
16 plays · 18 yds · 5:5027% → 25%
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
73.3%
Quali Conley run for 8 yds to the ARIZ 38Similar
Q2 7:23
2ND & 2
OWN 38
0
72.1%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:16
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+3
72.4%
Quali Conley run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
72.8%
Arizona Penalty, False Start (Sam Olson) to the ARIZ 36Similar
Q2 6:11
1ST & 15
OWN 36
-5
73.9%
(06:11) FIFITA, Noah pass short up the middle complete for 4 yards to OLSON, Sam caught at the ARI39 and advanced to the ARI40 (RILEY, Jordan), clock 06:04. PENALTY Before the snap, ARI Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the ARI36 to the ARI31. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 5:41
1ST & 20
OWN 31
+11
74.1%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 11 yds to the ARIZ 42Similar
Q2 5:01
2ND & 9
OWN 42
0
73.1%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:55
3RD & 9
OWN 42
+12
73.7%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Montana Lemonious-Craig for 12 yds to the KSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-10
72.1%
(04:20) CONLEY, Quali rush to the left for a gain of 11 yards to the KSU35 (RILEY, Jordan;OSUNSANMI, Tobi), clock 04:17. PENALTY ARI Holding on MOE JR., Wendell enforced 10 yards from the KSU46 to the ARI44 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 20
OWN 44
-10
73.9%
(04:00) FIFITA, Noah scrambles to the right for a gain of 5 yards to the ARI49, End of Play, clock 03:54. PENALTY ARI Holding on TAPA'ATOUTAI, Rhino enforced 10 yards from the ARI44 to the ARI34 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 3:40
1ST & 30
OWN 34
+6
74.5%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Devin Hyatt for 6 yds to the ARIZ 40Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 24
OWN 40
+13
74.3%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Rayshon Luke for 13 yds to the KSU 47Similar
Q2 2:20
3RD & 11
OPP 47
0
73.7%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:16
4TH & 11
OPP 47
-5
74.9%
Arizona Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the ARIZ 48Similar
Q2 2:09
4TH & 16
OWN 48
0
75.3%
Tyler Loop punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 7END OF HALF
13 plays · 68 yds · 1:5974% → 75%
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+15
74.3%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Brayden Loftin for 15 yds to the KSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
72.9%
Avery Johnson run for 2 yds to the KSU 35Similar
Q2 1:51
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+11
72.8%
DJ Giddens run for 11 yds to the KSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
74.6%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Dante Cephas for 9 yds to the ARIZ 45Similar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 1
OPP 45
0
75.5%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+6
74.9%
Avery Johnson run for 6 yds to the ARIZ 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
75.7%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jayce Brown for 6 yds to the ARIZ 33Similar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+14
76.1%
Arizona Penalty, Illegal use of the hands on MANU, Jacob enforced (Jacob Manu) to the ARIZ 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
78.3%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 10
OPP 14
-5
78.4%
Avery Johnson sacked by Ta'ita'i Uiagalelei for a loss of 5 yards to the ARIZ 19Similar
Q2 0:09
3RD & 15
OPP 19
+5
75.3%
Avery Johnson run for 5 yds to the ARIZ 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:1775% → 73%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
74.9%
DJ Giddens run for 1 yd to the KSU 26Similar
Q3 14:26
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-6
74.9%
Avery Johnson sacked by Taye Brown for a loss of 6 yards to the KSU 20Similar
Q3 13:49
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
73.8%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:42
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+4
73.0%
Simon McClannan punt for 55 yds , Jeremiah Patterson returns for 4 yds to the ARIZ 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2126% → 24%
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
74.0%
Quali Conley run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 31Similar
Q3 13:03
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+2
73.7%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Quali Conley for 2 yds to the ARIZ 33Similar
Q3 12:23
3RD & 6
OWN 33
0
74.4%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:14
4TH & 6
OWN 33
0
75.6%
Tyler Loop punt for 53 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 10TD
6 plays · 86 yds · 2:3775% → 88%
Q3 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+13
75.2%
Avery Johnson run for 13 yds to the KSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
75.6%
Dylan Edwards run for 3 yds to the KSU 30Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 7
OWN 30
-5
75.8%
Avery Johnson sacked by Owen Goss for a loss of 5 yards to the KSU 25Similar
Q3 10:46
3RD & 12
OWN 25
+48
74.4%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jayce Brown for 48 yds to the ARIZ 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
78.6%
Arizona Penalty, Face mask (8 yards) (Sterling Lane II) to the ARIZ 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
88.0%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Brayden Loftin for 9 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 2:5014% → 14%
Q3 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
85.8%
Noah Fifita sacked by Brendan Mott for a loss of 5 yards to the ARIZ 20Similar
Q3 8:46
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+9
86.2%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 9 yds to the ARIZ 29Similar
Q3 8:02
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+20
85.9%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Montana Lemonious-Craig for 20 yds to the ARIZ 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
84.7%
Quali Conley run for 2 yds to the KSU 49Similar
Q3 6:51
2ND & 8
OPP 49
0
84.8%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:43
3RD & 8
OPP 49
0
85.5%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:34
4TH & 8
OPP 49
0
86.3%
Tyler Loop punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 12TD
12 plays · 83 yds · 5:5089% → 98%
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
89.1%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+5
88.9%
Arizona Penalty, Offsides (Ta'ita'i Uiagalelei) to the KSU 22Similar
Q3 6:17
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+3
89.0%
DJ Giddens run for 3 yds to the KSU 25Similar
Q3 5:43
3RD & 2
OWN 25
+17
88.8%
Avery Johnson run for 17 yds to the KSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
90.1%
DJ Giddens run for 3 yds to the KSU 45Similar
Q3 4:26
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+13
90.8%
Avery Johnson run for 13 yds to the ARIZ 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
91.1%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Will Swanson for 3 yds to the ARIZ 39Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+3
91.3%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Dylan Edwards for 3 yds to the ARIZ 36Similar
Q3 2:36
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+10
92.6%
DJ Giddens run for 10 yds to the ARIZ 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+21
93.0%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Brayden Loftin for 21 yds to the ARIZ 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
93.5%
Avery Johnson run for 4 yds to the ARIZ 1Similar
Q3 0:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.1%
DJ Giddens run for 1 yd for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 13DOWNS
8 plays · 38 yds · 3:462% → 1%
Q3 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
97.7%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 6 yds to the ARIZ 31Similar
Q3 0:04
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
97.9%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 4 yds to the ARIZ 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
98.0%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jeremiah Patterson for a loss of 3 yards to the ARIZ 32Similar
Q4 14:21
2ND & 13
OWN 32
+22
98.2%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 22 yds to the KSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
98.3%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 6 yds to the KSU 40Similar
Q4 13:12
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+3
98.3%
Kedrick Reescano run for 3 yds to the KSU 37Similar
Q4 12:29
3RD & 1
OPP 37
0
98.4%
Quali Conley run for no gain to the KSU 37Similar
Q4 11:48
4TH & 1
OPP 37
0
98.6%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 14FG
9 plays · 46 yds · 4:3999% → 99%
Q4 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
98.6%
Dylan Edwards run for 4 yds to the KSU 41Similar
Q4 11:01
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+8
98.7%
Avery Johnson run for 8 yds to the KSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+26
98.8%
Avery Johnson run for 26 yds to the ARIZ 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
98.8%
Dylan Edwards run for 1 yd to the ARIZ 24Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 9
OPP 24
-5
98.9%
(08:45) JOHNSON, Avery pass deep to the right incomplete intended for JOHNSON, Keagan thrown to the ARI7, clock 08:41. PENALTY KSU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on WILLIS, Carver enforced 5 yards from the ARI24 to the ARI29 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:39
2ND & 14
OPP 29
+9
98.9%
Avery Johnson run for 9 yds to the ARIZ 20Similar
Q4 7:58
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+3
98.9%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Tre Spivey for 3 yds to the ARIZ 17Similar
Q4 7:04
4TH & 2
OPP 17
+35
99.1%
Chris Tennant 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 15DOWNS
9 plays · 49 yds · 3:371% → 1%
Q4 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+10
99.3%
Noah Fifita run for 10 yds to the ARIZ 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
99.3%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Montana Lemonious-Craig for 10 yds to the ARIZ 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
99.3%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Montana Lemonious-Craig for 7 yds to the KSU 45Similar
Q4 5:23
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+6
99.3%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Kedrick Reescano for 6 yds to the KSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+16
99.4%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Montana Lemonious-Craig for 16 yds to the KSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
99.3%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:02
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
99.3%
Kedrick Reescano run for no gain to the KSU 23Similar
Q4 3:25
3RD & 10
OPP 23
0
99.4%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:19
4TH & 10
OPP 23
0
99.4%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 3 yds · 1:25100% → 100%
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
99.5%
DJ Giddens run for 21 yds to the KSU 44 Kansas State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Will Swanson) to the KSU 17Similar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 16
OWN 17
+6
99.6%
DJ Giddens run for 6 yds to the KSU 23Similar
Q4 1:59
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+4
99.8%
DJ Giddens run for 4 yds to the KSU 27Similar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 6
OWN 27
-1
99.8%
DJ Giddens run for a loss of 1 yard to the KSU 26Similar
Q4 1:50
4TH & 7
OWN 26
0
99.8%
Simon McClannan punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 17DOWNS
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:200% → 0%
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
99.8%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Chris Hunter for 12 yds to the ARIZ 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
99.8%
Noah Fifita run for no gain to the ARIZ 39Similar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
99.8%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:55
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+8
99.8%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Kedrick Reescano for 8 yds to the ARIZ 47Similar
Q4 0:21
4TH & 2
OWN 47
0
99.8%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 18END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-2
99.8%
(00:11) Kneel down by KSU at ARI49 (team loss of 2), clock 00:06.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:29
Avery Johnson pass complete to Brayden Loftin for 9 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)
+9.3
PUNT · Q2 14:37
Tyler Loop punt for 48 yds , Dylan Edwards returns for 71 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)
+6
TD · Q1 1:01
Avery Johnson pass complete to Will Swanson for 3 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)
+5.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com