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RICE

Rice 7 at Houston 33

HOU
2024 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2024 · TDECU Stadium
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Win probability · HOU
modelHOU aheadRICE aheadconfidence bandkey playHOU scoreRICE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:08 · Alex Bacchetta punt for 55 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 68Home team on offense+17.4Score differential+13.2Pregame prior+8.6Garbage-time factor+3.8Blowout margin+0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:30: Stacy Sneed run for 65 yds for a TD (Joseph Kim KICK) — HOU win probability +3.5 pts (now 69%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  2. PUNT · Q1 3:49: Alex Bacchetta punt for 43 yds , Mekhi Mews returns for 75 yds for a TD (Joseph Kim KICK) — HOU win probability +3.5 pts (now 73%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 7:29: Donovan Smith pass complete to Stephon Johnson for 44 yds for a TD (Joseph Kim PAT MISSED) — HOU win probability +10.5 pts (now 88%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q2 1:20: E.J. Warner pass complete to Dean Connors for 4 yds to the RICE 45 — HOU win probability +1.8 pts (now 91%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:24: Donovan Smith run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — HOU win probability +2.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HOU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8RICE made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 13:45HOU 4th & 19 at HOU 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.6%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:36RICE 4th & 3 at RICE 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:41HOU 4th & 4 at RICE 12, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 62.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.8%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.7%−<0.1
    86% to make
    Punt
    61.7%−1.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:11RICE 4th & 11 at RICE 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.9%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:49RICE 4th & 3 at RICE 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.6%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.7%
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:11RICE 4th & 8 at RICE 42, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:24HOU 4th & 15 at midfield, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.5%−1.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:27RICE 4th & 4 at RICE 36, down 14
    Close callPunted · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.7%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:49HOU 4th & 23 at HOU 15, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.4%−3.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.9%
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:00RICE 4th & 4 at RICE 31, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%−0.7
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.7%
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:49HOU 4th & 8 at HOU 31, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%−0.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.0%
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:08RICE 4th & 9 at RICE 45, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.1%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:59RICE 4th & 13 at RICE 44, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.4%−1.4
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.8%
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:17HOU 4th & 1 at RICE 4, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.9%
    65% to convert
    Field goal
    94.6%−1.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    91.3%−4.7
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:03RICE 4th & 4 at RICE 41, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:58HOU 4th & 13 at RICE 46, up 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−0.2
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    99.3%−0.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:38RICE 4th & 2 at RICE 18, down 26
    Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%−0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:10HOU 4th & 1 at RICE 37, up 26
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    99.4%−0.3
    40% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.3
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:10RICE 4th & 2 at HOU 26, down 33
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4RICE made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 5:30HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:29HOU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    88.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 2:24HOU Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 7:10HOU Touchdown, up 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:08RICE Touchdown, down 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HOUDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 1:1567% → 66%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
66.6%
Donovan Smith run for no gain to the HOU 25Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
66.5%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:27
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-9
66.5%
Donovan Smith sacked by Josh Pearcy for a loss of 9 yards to the HOU 16Similar
Q1 13:45
4TH & 19
OWN 16
0
66.4%
Liam Dougherty punt for 41 yds , Sean Fresch returns for no gain to the RICE 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:5334% → 34%
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
66.4%
Dean Connors run for 5 yds to the RICE 40Similar
Q1 12:56
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
66.2%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Dean Connors for no gain to the RICE 40Similar
Q1 12:24
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+2
66.2%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Boden Groen for 2 yds to the RICE 42Similar
Q1 11:36
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
66.2%
Alex Bacchetta punt for 24 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 3MISSED FG
7 plays · 54 yds · 3:5066% → 66%
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+34
66.4%
Re'Shaun Sanford II run for 34 yds to the RICE 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
66.8%
Re'Shaun Sanford II run for no gain to the RICE 32Similar
Q1 10:17
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+14
66.8%
J'Marion Burnette run for 14 yds to the RICE 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
66.8%
Parker Jenkins run for 4 yds to the RICE 14Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+2
66.8%
Parker Jenkins run for 2 yds to the RICE 12Similar
Q1 8:16
3RD & 4
OPP 12
0
66.5%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:41
4TH & 4
OPP 12
+31
66.1%
Joseph Kim 31 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:3034% → 34%
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
65.6%
Dean Connors run for no gain to the RICE 20Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
65.5%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:57
3RD & 10
OWN 20
-5
65.9%
Rice Penalty, Illegal Snap on STICKLE, David enforced (-5 Yards) to the RICE 15Similar
Q1 6:57
3RD & 15
OWN 15
+4
65.9%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Matt Sykes for 4 yds to the RICE 19Similar
Q1 6:11
4TH & 11
OWN 19
0
66.1%
Alex Bacchetta punt for 56 yds, fair catch by Mekhi Mews at the HOU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 5TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:3466% → 69%
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
65.5%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Mekhi Mews for 10 yds to the HOU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+65
69.0%
Stacy Sneed run for 65 yds for a TD (Joseph Kim KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 6PUNT RETURN TD
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:4131% → 28%
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
68.7%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Dean Connors for 1 yd to the RICE 26Similar
Q1 4:54
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
68.9%
Dean Connors run for 6 yds to the RICE 32Similar
Q1 4:12
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
68.9%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:49
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+75
72.5%
Alex Bacchetta punt for 43 yds , Mekhi Mews returns for 75 yds for a TD (Joseph Kim KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:3828% → 27%
Q1 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
72.3%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
73.0%
Taji Atkins run for 15 yds to the RICE 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
72.9%
Taji Atkins run for 2 yds to the RICE 42Similar
Q1 2:31
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
72.7%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:22
3RD & 8
OWN 42
0
72.9%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:11
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
73.3%
Alex Bacchetta punt for 42 yds, downed at the HOU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 8PUNT
10 plays · 34 yds · 4:3975% → 77%
Q1 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
74.6%
Re'Shaun Sanford II run for 2 yds to the HOU 18Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+2
74.8%
Re'Shaun Sanford II run for 2 yds to the HOU 20Similar
Q1 0:46
3RD & 6
OWN 20
+10
74.9%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Maliq Carr for 10 yds to the HOU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
75.7%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 1 yd to the HOU 31Similar
Q2 14:24
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+2
76.0%
Stacy Sneed run for 2 yds to the HOU 33Similar
Q2 13:44
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+22
76.0%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Maliq Carr for 22 yds to the RICE 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
77.4%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:18
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-5
77.4%
Re'Shaun Sanford II run for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:34
3RD & 15
50
0
77.0%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:24
4TH & 15
50
0
76.5%
Liam Dougherty punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:5225% → 23%
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
75.4%
Dean Connors run for 1 yd to the RICE 20Similar
Q2 11:42
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+10
75.8%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Dean Connors for 10 yds to the RICE 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
75.8%
E.J. Warner run for 4 yds to the RICE 34Similar
Q2 10:21
2ND & 6
OWN 34
0
75.9%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:14
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+2
76.2%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Dean Connors for 2 yds to the RICE 36Similar
Q2 9:27
4TH & 4
OWN 36
+4
77.0%
Alex Bacchetta punt for 40 yds , Mekhi Mews returns for 4 yds to the HOU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -13 yds · 1:3179% → 77%
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
78.6%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Mekhi Mews for a loss of 1 yard to the HOU 27Similar
Q2 8:42
2ND & 11
OWN 27
+7
78.8%
Stacy Sneed run for 7 yds to the HOU 34Similar
Q2 8:07
3RD & 4
OWN 34
-5
78.0%
Houston Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-5 Yards) to the HOU 15Similar
Q2 7:49
4TH & 23
OWN 15
+45
77.4%
Liam Dougherty punt for 45 yds , Sean Fresch returns for no gain to the RICE 44 , returns for no gain to the RICE 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 11TD
1 play · 44 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
87.8%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Stephon Johnson for 44 yds for a TD (Joseph Kim PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2912% → 11%
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
88.1%
Quinton Jackson run for 2 yds to the RICE 27Similar
Q2 6:51
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
88.3%
Quinton Jackson run for 4 yds to the RICE 31Similar
Q2 6:04
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
88.6%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
88.9%
Alex Bacchetta punt for 50 yds, downed at the HOU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 3:0990% → 91%
Q2 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-3
89.7%
Re'Shaun Sanford II run for a loss of 3 yards to the HOU 16Similar
Q2 5:06
2ND & 13
OWN 16
+13
89.9%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Mekhi Mews for 13 yds to the HOU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
90.5%
Re'Shaun Sanford II run for a loss of 1 yard to the HOU 28Similar
Q2 3:46
2ND & 11
OWN 28
+5
91.0%
J'Marion Burnette run for 5 yds to the HOU 33Similar
Q2 3:06
3RD & 6
OWN 33
-2
91.3%
Donovan Smith sacked by Michael Larbie for a loss of 2 yards to the HOU 31Similar
Q2 2:49
4TH & 8
OWN 31
-7
90.6%
Liam Dougherty punt for 48 yds , Tyson Thompson returns for a loss of 7 yards to the RICE 29Similar
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+15
90.5%
(02:38) WARNER, E.J. pass to the right intercepted by GASTON, Juwon at the RIC38 intended for DICKMAN, Drayden. Gaston return for 3 yards to the RIC35 (CAMPBELL, Kobie), clock 02:31. PENALTY HOU Roughing the Passer on ALLEN, Carlos enforced 15 yards from the RIC29 to the RIC44 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 16 yds · 1:0910% → 8%
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
90.4%
Dean Connors run for 9 yds to the HOU 47Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 1
OPP 47
-12
89.7%
E.J. Warner sacked by Carlos Allen for a loss of 12 yards to the RICE 41Similar
Q2 1:20
3RD & 13
OWN 41
+4
91.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Dean Connors for 4 yds to the RICE 45Similar
Q2 1:08
4TH & 9
OWN 45
0
91.8%
Alex Bacchetta punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:4393% → 93%
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
92.9%
Donovan Smith run for 1 yd to the HOU 21Similar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+5
93.0%
Stacy Sneed run for 5 yds to the HOU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 4:018% → 7%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.4%
Dean Connors run for no gain to the RICE 25Similar
Q3 14:26
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
92.8%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Kobie Campbell for 5 yds to the RICE 30Similar
Q3 13:49
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+15
93.1%
Houston Penalty, Targeting on GASTON, Juwon enforced (Juwon Gaston) to the RICE 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-10
93.3%
(13:33) CONNORS, Dean rush to the left for a gain of 3 yards to the RIC50 (BATTON, Michael;WEBB, Kentrell), clock 13:26. PENALTY RIC Holding on CAMPBELL, Kobie enforced 10 yards from the RIC47 to the RIC37 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 13:18
1ST & 20
OWN 37
-6
93.9%
Quinton Jackson run for a loss of 6 yards to the RICE 31Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 26
OWN 31
+1
93.0%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Quinton Jackson for 1 yd to the RICE 32Similar
Q3 11:46
3RD & 25
OWN 32
+12
93.5%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Christian Francisco for 12 yds to the RICE 44Similar
Q3 10:59
4TH & 13
OWN 44
0
93.3%
Alex Bacchetta punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Mekhi Mews at the HOU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 17DOWNS
15 plays · 77 yds · 7:3695% → 96%
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
94.9%
Stacy Sneed run for 4 yds to the HOU 20Similar
Q3 10:11
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+15
95.1%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 15 yds to the HOU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
95.1%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Marquis Shoulders for 1 yd to the HOU 36Similar
Q3 8:59
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+1
95.2%
Re'Shaun Sanford II run for 1 yd to the HOU 37Similar
Q3 8:17
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+5
95.1%
(08:17) SMITH, Donovan pass to the left complete for -7 yards to SNEED, Stacy caught at the HOU31 and advanced to the HOU30 (ARKANSAS, DJ), clock 08:12. PENALTY RIC Offsides on MORRISON, Myron enforced 5 yards from the HOU37 to the HOU42 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 7:59
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+4
95.6%
Stacy Sneed run for 4 yds to the HOU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
95.8%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:18
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+3
95.9%
J'Marion Burnette run for 3 yds to the HOU 49Similar
Q3 6:40
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+18
96.1%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Devan Williams for 18 yds to the RICE 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
96.2%
Re'Shaun Sanford II run for 7 yds to the RICE 26Similar
Q3 5:39
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+13
96.3%
Donovan Smith run for 13 yds to the RICE 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
96.3%
Re'Shaun Sanford II run for 3 yds to the RICE 10Similar
Q3 4:24
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+2
96.4%
J'Marion Burnette run for 2 yds to the RICE 8Similar
Q3 3:41
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+4
96.4%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Jayden York for 4 yds to the RICE 4Similar
Q3 3:17
4TH & 1
OPP 4
-3
96.2%
Re'Shaun Sanford II run for a loss of 3 yards to the RICE 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 18INT
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:394% → 3%
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+2
96.5%
Taji Atkins run for 2 yds to the RICE 9Similar
Q3 2:35
2ND & 8
OWN 9
-3
97.0%
E.J. Warner pass intercepted Jalen Garner return for 3 yds to the RICE 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 19TD
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 2:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.1%
Donovan Smith run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:211% → 0%
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
99.4%
Dean Connors run for a loss of 1 yard to the RICE 34Similar
Q3 1:48
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+7
99.5%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Drayden Dickmann for 7 yds to the RICE 41Similar
Q3 1:05
3RD & 4
OWN 41
0
99.6%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:03
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
99.6%
Alex Bacchetta punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Mekhi Mews at the HOU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 2:5899% → 99%
Q3 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.3%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+21
99.3%
Re'Shaun Sanford II run for 21 yds to the HOU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
99.4%
Re'Shaun Sanford II run for 3 yds to the HOU 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 49
0
99.4%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+8
99.4%
Re'Shaun Sanford II run for 8 yds to the RICE 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:29
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
99.4%
Re'Shaun Sanford II run for 2 yds to the RICE 41Similar
Q4 13:50
2ND & 8
OPP 41
0
99.5%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:44
3RD & 8
OPP 41
-5
99.5%
Stacy Sneed run for a loss of 5 yards to the RICE 46Similar
Q4 12:58
4TH & 13
OPP 46
0
99.4%
Liam Dougherty punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Tyson Thompson at the RICE 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:140% → 0%
Q4 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
99.7%
Taji Atkins run for 1 yd to the RICE 11Similar
Q4 12:06
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+3
99.7%
Drew Devillier pass complete to Braylen Walker for 3 yds to the RICE 14Similar
Q4 11:19
3RD & 6
OWN 14
+4
99.8%
Dean Connors run for 4 yds to the RICE 18Similar
Q4 10:38
4TH & 2
OWN 18
0
99.8%
Alex Bacchetta punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Mekhi Mews at the HOU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 23TD
8 plays · 56 yds · 3:21100% → 100%
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
99.6%
J'Marion Burnette run for 4 yds to the HOU 48Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+5
99.6%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Stacy Sneed for 5 yds to the RICE 47Similar
Q4 9:25
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+1
99.6%
J'Marion Burnette run for 1 yd to the RICE 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
99.8%
J'Marion Burnette run for 7 yds to the RICE 39Similar
Q4 8:02
2ND & 3
OPP 39
0
99.8%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:58
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+2
99.8%
J'Marion Burnette run for 2 yds to the RICE 37Similar
Q4 7:10
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+37
99.9%
Donovan Smith run for 37 yds for a TD (Joseph Kim KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 24TD
12 plays · 70 yds · 5:550% → 0%
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
99.9%
Dean Connors run for 8 yds to the RICE 38Similar
Q4 6:24
2ND & 2
OWN 38
-4
99.9%
Dean Connors run for a loss of 4 yards to the RICE 34Similar
Q4 5:39
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+10
99.9%
Drew Devillier pass complete to Kobie Campbell for 10 yds to the RICE 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
99.9%
Drew Devillier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:56
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+7
99.9%
Drew Devillier pass complete to Kobie Campbell for 7 yds to the HOU 49Similar
Q4 4:10
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+15
99.9%
Quinton Jackson run for 15 yds to the HOU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
99.9%
Drew Devillier run for 2 yds to the HOU 32Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+6
99.9%
Quinton Jackson run for 6 yds to the HOU 26Similar
Q4 2:14
3RD & 2
OPP 26
0
99.9%
Drew Devillier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:10
4TH & 2
OPP 26
+14
99.9%
Drew Devillier pass complete to Christian Francisco for 14 yds to the HOU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+8
99.9%
Christian Francisco run for 8 yds to the HOU 4Similar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 2
OPP 4
+4
99.8%
Dean Connors run for 4 yds for a TD (Enock Gota KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:44100% → 100%
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Sherman Smith run for no gain to the HOU 25Similar
Q4 0:24
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.9%
DJ Butler run for 4 yds to the HOU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:29
Donovan Smith pass complete to Stephon Johnson for 44 yds for a TD (Joseph Kim PAT MISSED)
+10.5
TD · Q1 5:30
Stacy Sneed run for 65 yds for a TD (Joseph Kim KICK)
+3.5
PUNT · Q1 3:49
Alex Bacchetta punt for 43 yds , Mekhi Mews returns for 75 yds for a TD (Joseph Kim KICK)
+3.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com