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AF

Air Force 3 at Baylor 31

BAY
2024 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2024 · McLane Stadium
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Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadAF aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreAF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:20 · Richard Reese run for no gain to the AFA 26
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+41.5+20.80−20.8−41.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 46Pregame prior+31.6Home team on offense+2.1Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.1Blowout margin−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 2:19: Matthew Dapore 26 yd FG GOOD — AF win probability +3.5 pts (now 22%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:05: Timeout Air Force, clock 00:05 — BAY win probability +9.1 pts (now 83%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:00: Isaiah Hankins 51 yd FG GOOD — BAY win probability +3.4 pts (now 86%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 12:38: Bryson Washington run for 19 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK) — BAY win probability +5.8 pts (now 90%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:04: Sawyer Robertson run for 6 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK) — BAY win probability +6.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 4 of 5AF made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 12:48AF 4th & 1 at AF 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    14.2%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:40AF 4th & 24 at AF 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.6%−0.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:20BAY 4th & 11 at AF 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.5%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.6%
    58% to make
    Punt
    83.0%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:38AF 4th & 2 at AF 33, down 3
    Close callPunted · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:51AF 4th & 12 at BAY 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.7%−0.5
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.2%
    62% to make
    Punt
    16.4%−1.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:20BAY 4th & 1 at AF 26, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    80.6%−0.8
    64% to make
    Punt
    78.7%−2.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:32AF 4th & 2 at BAY 42, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    19.3%−1.8
    30% to make
    Punt
    19.7%−1.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:19AF 4th & 5 at BAY 9, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.9%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.9%
    89% to make
    Punt
    17.3%−4.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:58AF 4th & 8 at AF 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.3%−1.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:42AF 4th & 9 at AF 26, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.7%−1.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:58BAY 4th & 7 at AF 7, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.2%
    91% to make
    Punt
    92.4%−2.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:07AF 4th & 1 at AF 34, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.8%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:57AF 4th & 2 at AF 33, down 28
    Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:56BAY 4th & 5 at AF 26, up 28
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:15BAY 4th & 1 at AF 20, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    100.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−0.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    99.6%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BAY made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q3 12:38BAY Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 8:04BAY Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 14:50BAY Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AFDrive 1PUNT
15 plays · 23 yds · 7:169% → 11%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
91.1%
John Busha run for 5 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
91.0%
Roman Bradley run for 2 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q1 13:35
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
90.8%
Roman Bradley run for 2 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q1 12:48
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
90.6%
John Busha run for 2 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
90.4%
John Busha run for 8 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q1 11:43
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+1
90.2%
John Busha run for 1 yd to the AFA 45Similar
Q1 11:04
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+2
90.0%
John Busha run for 2 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
89.8%
Owen Allen run for 4 yds to the BAY 49Similar
Q1 9:57
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+2
89.6%
John Busha run for 2 yds to the BAY 47Similar
Q1 9:22
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+9
89.4%
Cade Harris run for 9 yds to the BAY 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-15
89.1%
(08:47) CALVERT, Aiden rush to the left for a gain of 7 yards to the BAY31 (REED, Chateau), out of bounds, clock 08:42. PENALTY AFA Personal Foul on SMITH, Quin enforced 15 yards from the BAY38 to the AFA47 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 8:24
1ST & 25
OWN 47
+1
89.1%
Roman Bradley run for 1 yd to the AFA 48Similar
Q1 7:53
2ND & 24
OWN 48
0
89.0%
John Busha pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:45
3RD & 24
OWN 48
0
89.0%
John Busha pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:40
4TH & 24
OWN 48
0
89.1%
punt blocked by Caleb Parker blocked by Caleb Parker , returns for no gain to the AFA 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 2FG
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:1289% → 89%
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
89.4%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:27
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+3
89.4%
Bryson Washington run for 3 yds to the AFA 25Similar
Q1 7:02
3RD & 7
OPP 25
-4
89.1%
Sawyer Robertson sacked by Payton Zdroik for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 29Similar
Q1 6:20
4TH & 11
OPP 29
+46
88.9%
Isaiah Hankins 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3811% → 11%
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.1%
John Busha run for no gain to the AFA 25Similar
Q1 5:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
89.0%
Aiden Calvert run for 6 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q1 5:16
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+2
88.8%
John Busha run for 2 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q1 4:38
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
88.8%
Luke Freer punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 4FUMBLE
6 plays · 41 yds · 1:4389% → 89%
Q1 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
88.5%
Bryson Washington run for 5 yds to the BAY 37Similar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+2
88.6%
Bryson Washington run for 2 yds to the BAY 39Similar
Q1 3:52
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+25
88.4%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 25 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
88.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 11 yds to the AFA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
88.7%
(03:10) ROBERTSON, Sawyer pass deep to the right complete for 24 yards to CAMERON, Josh caught at the AFA8 and advanced to the AFA1 (BELLAMY, Jamari), clock 03:03. PENALTY BAY Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on TRIGG, Michael enforced 5 yards from the AFA25 to the AFA30 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 2:41
1ST & 15
OPP 30
+3
88.5%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 3 yds to the AFA 27 Dawson Pendergrass fumbled, recovered by AFA Osaro Aihie O. Aihie return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 5MISSED FG
11 plays · 46 yds · 4:4112% → 14%
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+26
87.8%
Cade Harris run for 26 yds to the BAY 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
87.1%
Owen Allen run for 3 yds to the BAY 44Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 7
OPP 44
-1
86.9%
Cade Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the BAY 45Similar
Q1 0:52
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+10
86.8%
John Busha run for 10 yds to the BAY 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-3
86.2%
John Busha run for a loss of 3 yards to the BAY 38Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 13
OPP 38
+13
86.5%
Cade Harris run for 13 yds to the BAY 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:23
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
85.8%
Roman Bradley run for 4 yds to the BAY 21Similar
Q2 13:48
2ND & 6
OPP 21
-5
85.5%
Air Force Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BAY 26Similar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 11
OPP 26
-1
85.5%
Cade Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the BAY 27Similar
Q2 12:59
3RD & 12
OPP 27
0
85.8%
John Busha pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:51
4TH & 12
OPP 27
+45
86.5%
Matthew Dapore 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 6DOWNS
6 plays · 46 yds · 1:2986% → 86%
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
86.2%
Richard Reese run for 2 yds to the BAY 30Similar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+35
86.1%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 35 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
87.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 6 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q2 11:39
2ND & 4
OPP 29
0
86.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:36
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+3
86.5%
Richard Reese run for 3 yds to the AFA 26Similar
Q2 11:20
4TH & 1
OPP 26
0
86.0%
Richard Reese run for no gain to the AFA 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 7FG
17 plays · 65 yds · 8:5914% → 22%
Q2 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
85.8%
John Busha run for 3 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+6
85.5%
Cade Harris run for 6 yds to the AFA 35Similar
Q2 10:10
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+2
85.0%
Roman Bradley run for 2 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
84.8%
John Busha pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
84.8%
Aiden Calvert run for 3 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q2 8:47
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+10
84.5%
(08:47) BUSHA, John pass to the right complete for 8 yards to CALVERT, Aiden caught at the AFA48 and advanced to the AFA48, End of Play, clock 08:48. PENALTY BAY Holding on REED, Chateau enforced 10 yards from the AFA40 to the AFA50 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
50
+2
83.3%
John Busha run for 2 yds to the BAY 48Similar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+3
83.3%
Roman Bradley run for 3 yds to the BAY 45Similar
Q2 7:14
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+3
83.2%
Aiden Calvert run for 3 yds to the BAY 42Similar
Q2 6:32
4TH & 2
OPP 42
+16
83.5%
Cade Harris run for 16 yds to the BAY 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
81.7%
Roman Bradley run for 1 yd to the BAY 25Similar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+7
81.6%
John Busha run for 7 yds to the BAY 18Similar
Q2 4:48
3RD & 2
OPP 18
+4
82.0%
Kemper Hodges run for 4 yds to the BAY 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
81.0%
Kemper Hodges run for 4 yds to the BAY 10Similar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+2
80.7%
Roman Bradley run for 2 yds to the BAY 8Similar
Q2 2:58
3RD & 4
OPP 8
-1
81.1%
Kemper Hodges run for a loss of 1 yard to the BAY 9Similar
Q2 2:19
4TH & 5
OPP 9
+26
77.6%
Matthew Dapore 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 8FUMBLE
7 plays · 54 yds · 0:4581% → 78%
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
80.6%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 13 yds to the BAY 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
81.2%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 3 yds to the BAY 41Similar
Q2 1:51
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+10
81.5%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Michael Trigg for 10 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
82.1%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Michael Trigg for 5 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+23
82.1%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Bryson Washington for 23 yds Bryson Washington fumbled, recovered by AFA Houston Hendrix H. Hendrix return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-3
77.6%
(01:29) QB Keeper BUSHA, John rush to the right for a gain of 3 yards to the AFA24 (JOHNSON, Lorando), clock 01:24. PENALTY AFA Personal Foul on FLOYSAND, Samuel enforced half the distance from the goal, 10 yards from the AFA21 to the AFA11. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 0:2222% → 21%
Q2 1:20
1ST & 20
OWN 11
+9
77.6%
Kemper Hodges run for 9 yds to the AFA 20Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 11
OWN 20
0
77.5%
John Busha run for no gain to the AFA 20Similar
Q2 1:06
3RD & 11
OWN 20
+3
78.3%
Kemper Hodges run for 3 yds to the AFA 23Similar
Q2 0:58
4TH & 8
OWN 23
0
78.8%
Carson Bay punt for 52 yds, downed at the BAY 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 10FUMBLE
3 plays · 26 yds · 0:0879% → 78%
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
78.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
78.5%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:43
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+26
77.5%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Michael Trigg for 26 yds Michael Trigg fumbled, recovered by AFA Kyle Chen K. Chen return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 11FUMBLE
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:1626% → 26%
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
74.4%
John Busha pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+3
74.7%
Cade Harris run for 3 yds to the BAY 48Similar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+3
74.2%
John Busha run for 3 yds to the BAY 45 Lorando Johnson fumbled, recovered by BAY Devyn Bobby D. Bobby return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12FG
3 plays · 22 yds · 0:0482% → 86%
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+22
82.2%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Dawson Pendergrass for 22 yds to the AFA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+51
85.5%
Isaiah Hankins 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 13TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:1882% → 90%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
81.8%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Richard Reese for a loss of 1 yard to the BAY 24Similar
Q3 14:37
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+18
82.2%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 18 yds to the BAY 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
83.4%
Richard Reese run for 2 yds to the BAY 44Similar
Q3 13:53
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+7
83.4%
Richard Reese run for 7 yds to the AFA 49Similar
Q3 13:27
3RD & 1
OPP 49
-10
83.2%
Baylor Penalty, Offensive Holding (Josh Cameron) to the AFA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
84.0%
Bryson Washington run for 6 yds to the AFA 19Similar
Q3 12:38
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+19
89.8%
Bryson Washington run for 19 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:5412% → 11%
Q3 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
88.5%
John Busha run for 1 yd to the AFA 26Similar
Q3 12:04
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
88.4%
John Busha run for no gain to the AFA 26Similar
Q3 11:21
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
88.9%
John Busha run for no gain to the AFA 26Similar
Q3 10:42
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
89.2%
Luke Freer punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Josh Cameron at the BAY 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 15TD
9 plays · 64 yds · 2:3489% → 96%
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
89.1%
Bryson Washington run for 4 yds to the BAY 40Similar
Q3 10:16
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+22
89.4%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 22 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
89.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:36
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+6
89.6%
Bryson Washington run for 6 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q3 9:13
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+5
89.3%
(09:13) ROBERTSON, Sawyer pass deep to the right incomplete intended for HAWKINS, Ashtyn thrown to the AFA0, clock 09:15. PENALTY AFA Offsides on ADAMS, Jackson enforced 5 yards from the AFA32 to the AFA27 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
89.8%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Michael Trigg for 8 yds to the AFA 19Similar
Q3 8:47
2ND & 2
OPP 19
0
89.8%
Richard Reese run for no gain to the AFA 19Similar
Q3 8:14
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+13
89.2%
(08:14) ROBERTSON, Sawyer pass deep to the right incomplete intended for CAMERON, Josh thrown to the AFA0, clock 08:10. PENALTY AFA Pass Interference on GAILLARD, JR., Jerome enforced at the spot of the foul for 13 yards to the AFA6 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
95.8%
Sawyer Robertson run for 6 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 16FUMBLE
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:186% → 5%
Q3 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
94.1%
Aiden Calvert run for 7 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q3 7:28
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
94.3%
Owen Allen run for 2 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q3 7:01
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
94.4%
John Busha run for 2 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
94.6%
John Busha run for 3 yds to the AFA 39Similar
Q3 5:41
2ND & 7
OWN 39
-5
94.6%
John Busha run for a loss of 5 yards to the AFA 34 Kelsey Johnson fumbled, recovered by BAY Devonte Tezino D. Tezino return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 17FG
9 plays · 27 yds · 3:3196% → 98%
Q3 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-2
96.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Jamaal Bell for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 36Similar
Q3 4:53
2ND & 12
OPP 36
+11
96.1%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 11 yds to the AFA 25Similar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+2
96.0%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 2 yds to the AFA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+13
96.2%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 13 yds to the AFA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
96.2%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 8 yds to the AFA 2Similar
Q3 2:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
96.3%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
96.2%
Dawson Pendergrass run for no gain to the AFA 2Similar
Q3 2:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
96.0%
Baylor Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 7Similar
Q3 1:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
97.8%
Isaiah Hankins 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 18DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:482% → 2%
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
98.2%
Kemper Hodges run for 1 yd to the AFA 26Similar
Q3 1:21
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
98.3%
Quentin Hayes run for 1 yd to the AFA 27Similar
Q3 0:39
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+7
98.4%
Quentin Hayes pass complete to Bruin Fleischmann for 7 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q3 0:07
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
98.4%
Quentin Hayes run for no gain to the AFA 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 19TD
2 plays · 33 yds · 0:1499% → 100%
Q3 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
98.6%
Richard Reese run for 5 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+28
99.8%
Richard Reese run for 28 yds for a TD (S. Robertson Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:490% → 0%
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.8%
Kemper Hodges run for 2 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q4 14:19
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
99.9%
Tylor Latham run for 3 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q4 13:39
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+3
99.9%
Quentin Hayes run for 3 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q4 12:57
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+20
99.9%
Luke Freer punt for 49 yds , Josh Cameron returns for 20 yds to the BAY 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 21MISSED FG
9 plays · 36 yds · 4:54100% → 100%
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
99.8%
Bryson Washington run for 6 yds to the BAY 44Similar
Q4 12:08
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+13
99.9%
Bryson Washington run for 13 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
99.9%
Bryson Washington run for 6 yds to the AFA 37Similar
Q4 10:44
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+6
99.9%
Dominic Richardson run for 6 yds to the AFA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-10
99.9%
(10:06) ROBERTSON, Sawyer pass short to the left complete for 2 yards to YATES, Gavin caught at the AFA30 and advanced to the AFA29 (HENDRIX, Houston), clock 10:01. PENALTY BAY Holding on HAWKINS, Ashtyn enforced 10 yards from the AFA31 to the AFA41 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 9:41
1ST & 20
OPP 41
+10
99.9%
Dominic Richardson run for 10 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+3
99.9%
Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q4 8:32
3RD & 7
OPP 28
+2
99.9%
Bryson Washington run for 2 yds to the AFA 26Similar
Q4 7:56
4TH & 5
OPP 26
+44
99.9%
Isaiah Hankins 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 22INT
3 plays · 21 yds · 1:040% → 0%
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+18
99.9%
Josh Johnson pass complete to Tre Roberson for 18 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
99.9%
Tylor Latham run for 3 yds to the AFA 47Similar
Q4 6:41
2ND & 7
OWN 47
-37
99.9%
Josh Johnson pass intercepted Corey Gordon Jr. return for 37 yds to the BAY 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 23END OF GAME
11 plays · 28 yds · 5:54100% → 100%
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
99.9%
Dominic Richardson run for 6 yds to the AFA 45Similar
Q4 5:31
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+3
99.9%
Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q4 4:51
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+3
99.9%
Sawyer Robertson run for 3 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
99.9%
Dominic Richardson run for 10 yds to the AFA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
99.9%
Dominic Richardson run for 4 yds to the AFA 25Similar
Q4 2:24
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+1
99.9%
Joseph Hagman run for 1 yd to the AFA 24Similar
Q4 1:57
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+4
99.9%
Dominic Richardson run for 4 yds to the AFA 20Similar
Q4 1:15
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+2
99.9%
Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the AFA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-15
99.9%
HAGMAN, Joseph rush to the left for a gain of 4 yards to the AFA14 (JOHNSON, Korey), clock 00:33. PENALTY BAY Personal Foul enforced 15 yards from the AFA18 to the AFA33 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 0:22
1ST & 25
OPP 33
+10
99.9%
Joseph Hagman run for 10 yds to the AFA 23 Joseph Hagman fumbled, recovered by BAY return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q2 0:05
Timeout Air Force, clock 00:05
+9.1
TD · Q3 8:04
Sawyer Robertson run for 6 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)
+6.6
TD · Q3 12:38
Bryson Washington run for 19 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)
+5.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com