2024 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2024 · Arizona Stadium
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Win probability · ARIZ
modelARIZ aheadNAU aheadconfidence bandkey playARIZ scoreNAU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:25 · Jordan Forbes punt for 33 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- FG · Q2 6:20: Marcus Lye 38 yd FG GOOD — NAU win probability +1.9 pts (now 9%) (top driver: NAU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 13:52: Quali Conley run for 3 yds to the NAU 31 — ARIZ win probability +2.3 pts (now 91%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
- TD · Q3 12:06: Noah Fifita pass complete to Jeremiah Patterson for 17 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK) — ARIZ win probability +4.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
- SAFETY · Q4 11:33: Team Safety — ARIZ win probability +3.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: NAU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 9:32: Kedrick Reescano run for 56 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK) — ARIZ win probability +8.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 7 of 8NAU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
- Q1 11:33ARIZ 4th & 15 at NAU 15, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.4% before the snapGo for it98.2%−0.115% to convertField goalTheir call98.3%83% to makePunt97.9%−0.4average punt
- Q1 10:16NAU 4th & 11 at NAU 24, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snapGo for it1.7%−0.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.8%average punt
- Q1 7:29ARIZ 4th & 3 at ARIZ 39, up 3Close callPunted · 97.9% before the snapGo for it98.0%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 3:53NAU 4th & 8 at NAU 33, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snapGo for it2.4%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.6%average punt
- Q1 0:25ARIZ 4th & 13 at midfield, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.7% before the snapGo for it96.6%−0.121% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.7%average punt
- Q2 6:20NAU 4th & 5 at ARIZ 20, up 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.6% before the snapGo for it7.4%−0.140% to convertField goalTheir call7.5%75% to makePunt5.9%−1.6average punt
- Q2 4:38ARIZ 4th & 6 at ARIZ 29, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.0% before the snapGo for it88.8%−0.239% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call89.0%average punt
- Q2 2:58NAU 4th & 4 at NAU 27, up 7Close callPunted · 11.9% before the snapGo for it11.9%47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.8%−0.1average punt
- Q2 0:32ARIZ 4th & 9 at NAU 30, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.0% before the snapGo for it85.4%−0.832% to convertField goalTheir call86.2%56% to makePunt84.6%−1.6average punt
- Q3 13:52NAU 4th & 1 at NAU 34, up 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call13.5%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt12.7%−0.8average punt
- Q3 11:09NAU 4th & 5 at NAU 30, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.8% before the snapGo for it8.8%−0.241% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.1%average punt
- Q3 3:56ARIZ 4th & 9 at NAU 9, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.1% before the snapGo for it86.0%−0.825% to convertField goalTheir call86.7%89% to makePunt81.7%−5.1average punt
- Q4 14:06NAU 4th & 20 at NAU 33, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.7% before the snapGo for it12.2%−3.79% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.0%average punt
- Q4 11:50ARIZ 4th & 12 at NAU 47, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.3% before the snapGo for it81.5%−2.223% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call83.7%average punt
- Q4 7:17NAU 4th & 5 at midfield, down 12Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.8%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt4.5%−0.3average punt
- Q4 4:46ARIZ 4th & 9 at NAU 45, up 12Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.1% before the snapGo for it95.8%−<0.132% to convertField goal95.4%−0.425% to makePuntTheir call95.8%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 2 of 2NAU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q2 10:24NAU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call5.4%97% to makeGo for two5.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:06ARIZ Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.2%97% to makeGo for two91.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:32ARIZ Touchdown, up 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.1%97% to makeGo for two95.0%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartARIZDrive 1FG8 plays · 69 yds · 3:2199% → 99%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+12
99.0%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 12 yds to the ARIZ 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
99.0%
(14:21) FIFITA, Noah pass deep to the right incomplete intended for MCMILLAN, Tetairoa thrown to the ARI44, clock 14:20. PENALTY NAU Pass Interference on GREER, Mikale enforced at the spot of the foul for 12 yards to the ARI40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 11:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-11
98.8%
Noah Fifita sacked by Tommy Ellis for a loss of 11 yards to the NAU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 2PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 1:161% → 1%
ARIZDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 18 yds · 2:3599% → 98%
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
98.7%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Keyan Burnett for 11 yds to the ARIZ 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
98.6%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Rayshon Luke for 2 yds to the ARIZ 34Similar
Q1 8:14
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+3
98.5%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tyler Powell for 3 yds to the ARIZ 39Similar
Q1 7:29
4TH & 3
OWN 39
+14
98.4%
Jordan Forbes punt for 55 yds , Alani Ma'afu returns for 14 yds to the NAU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 4PUNT7 plays · 13 yds · 3:262% → 2%
ARIZDrive 5PUNT7 plays · 23 yds · 3:2298% → 97%
Q1 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
97.9%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Quali Conley for 15 yds to the NAU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:51
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+1
97.8%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jeremiah Patterson for 1 yd to the NAU 45Similar
Q1 1:14
3RD & 8
OPP 45
-5
97.7%
Noah Fifita sacked by Alex McLaughlin for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 6TD12 plays · 83 yds · 4:573% → 5%
Q2 13:24
3RD & 9
OWN 28
+15
97.2%
Arizona Penalty, Roughing the Passer on LANE II, Sterlng enforced (Sterling Lane II) to the ARIZ 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+5
96.6%
Ty Pennington pass complete to Isaiah Eastman for 5 yds to the ARIZ 31Similar
Q2 11:32
3RD & 2
OPP 31
-5
96.4%
Northern Arizona Penalty, False Start (Christopher Smith) to the ARIZ 36Similar
Q2 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
94.9%
Isaiah Eastman pass complete to Xander Werner for 25 yds for a TD (Marcus Lye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 7INT3 plays · 23 yds · 1:1595% → 95%
Q2 9:01
2ND & 2
OWN 49
0
95.3%
Noah Fifita pass intercepted Mikale Greer return for no gain to the NAU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 8FG6 plays · 42 yds · 2:335% → 9%
ARIZDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:4192% → 91%
Q2 4:38
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+1
90.5%
Jordan Forbes punt for 51 yds , Isaiah Eastman returns for 1 yd to the NAU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2910% → 11%
Q2 2:58
4TH & 4
OWN 27
+32
89.4%
Ben D'Aquila punt for 47 yds , Jeremiah Patterson returns for 32 yds to the NAU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 11FG9 plays · 12 yds · 2:1091% → 89%
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-10
89.8%
(01:55) CONLEY, Quali rush up the middle for a gain of 3 yards to the NAU28 (ELLIS, Tommy;ALLEN, Ammon), clock 01:51. PENALTY ARI Holding on MOE JR., Wendell enforced 10 yards from the NAU31 to the NAU41 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 20
OPP 41
-2
88.2%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Quali Conley for a loss of 2 yards to the NAU 43Similar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 22
OPP 43
+13
88.1%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Montana Lemonious-Craig for 13 yds to the NAU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 12END OF HALF1 play · 2 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 13DOWNS4 plays · 9 yds · 1:0711% → 11%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
89.2%
Ty Pennington pass complete to Ta'ir Brooks for 8 yds to the NAU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 14TD4 plays · 34 yds · 1:4691% → 94%
Q3 13:18
2ND & 7
OPP 31
-1
90.5%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for a loss of 1 yard to the NAU 32Similar
Q3 12:38
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+15
89.2%
(12:38) FIFITA, Noah sacked for a loss of 10 yards at the NAU42 (NIVENS, Bobby), clock 12:33. PENALTY NAU Face mask on NIVENS, Bobby enforced 15 yards from the NAU32 to the NAU17 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
93.5%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jeremiah Patterson for 17 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 15PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:578% → 8%
ARIZDrive 16MISSED FG18 plays · 74 yds · 7:0492% → 89%
Q3 10:23
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+20
91.6%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tyler Powell for 20 yds to the ARIZ 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:11
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+11
92.0%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Keyan Burnett for 11 yds to the NAU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-10
92.0%
(08:32) CONLEY, Quali rush to the right for a gain of 8 yards to the NAU35 (HARKINS, Michael), clock 08:28. PENALTY ARI Holding on MOE JR., Wendell enforced 10 yards from the NAU43 to the ARI47 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:07
1ST & 20
OWN 47
-5
91.0%
(08:07) FIFITA, Noah pass to the left complete for 8 yards to MCMILLAN, Tetairoa caught at the NAU47 and advanced to the NAU45 (SMITH, Christopher), clock 08:02. PENALTY Before the snap, ARI Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the ARI47 to the ARI42. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 7:36
2ND & 25
OWN 42
+9
90.4%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Quali Conley for 9 yds to the NAU 49Similar
Q3 6:57
3RD & 16
OPP 49
+14
89.8%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jeremiah Patterson for 14 yds to the NAU 35Similar
Q3 6:22
4TH & 2
OPP 35
+15
90.6%
(06:22) FIFITA, Noah pass deep to the right incomplete intended for MCMILLAN, Tetairoa thrown to the NAU0, clock 06:14. PENALTY NAU Pass Interference on GREER, Mikale enforced 15 yards to the NAU20 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+4
90.8%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Quali Conley for 4 yds to the NAU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 17PUNT10 plays · 13 yds · 4:5112% → 13%
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
88.2%
Ty Pennington pass complete to BJ Fleming for 6 yds to the NAU 26Similar
Q3 0:52
2ND & 13
OWN 40
-5
86.0%
(00:52) PENNINGTON, Ty pass short to the right complete for 7 yards to PURDY, Jeter caught at the NAU41 and advanced to the NAU47 (GOSS, Owen), clock 00:47. PENALTY NAU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on KRAMER, Ethan enforced 5 yards from the NAU40 to the NAU35 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 18
OWN 35
+8
86.0%
Ty Pennington pass complete to Isaiah Eastman for 8 yds to the NAU 43Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 43
-5
85.2%
Ty Pennington pass complete to Kolbe Katsis for a loss of 5 yards to the NAU 38Similar
Q4 14:06
4TH & 20
OWN 33
+40
86.8%
Ben D'Aquila punt for 40 yds , Jeremiah Patterson returns for no gain to the ARIZ 24 , returns for a loss of 3 yards to the ARIZ 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 18PUNT7 plays · 29 yds · 2:1487% → 85%
NAUDrive 19SF2 plays · 0 yds · 0:1015% → 12%
ARIZDrive 20TD4 plays · 80 yds · 1:5189% → 97%
NAUDrive 21DOWNS6 plays · 21 yds · 2:143% → 4%
ARIZDrive 22PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 2:2497% → 97%
Q4 4:46
4TH & 9
OPP 45
0
96.7%
Jordan Forbes punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Eastman at the NAU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 23FUMBLE9 plays · 31 yds · 2:503% → 2%
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
96.9%
Ty Pennington sacked by Isaiah Johnson for a loss of 5 yards to the NAU 20Similar
Q4 3:29
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+10
97.6%
Ty Pennington pass complete to Isaiah Gerena for 10 yds to the NAU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
97.7%
Ty Pennington pass complete to J'Wan Evans for 6 yds to the NAU 43Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-8
97.6%
Ty Pennington sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the ARIZ 44 Ty Pennington fumbled, recovered by ARIZ Jacob Manu , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 24END OF GAME3 plays · 6 yds · 1:2998% → 98%
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:32
Kedrick Reescano run for 56 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK)
+8.6
TD · Q3 12:06
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jeremiah Patterson for 17 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK)
+4.3
SAFETY · Q4 11:33
Team Safety
+3.3