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TAR

Tarleton State 3 at Baylor 45

BAY
2024 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2024 · McLane Stadium
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Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadTAR aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreTAR score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:16 · Adrian Guzman punt for 44 yds, downed at the BAY 16
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 135Pregame prior+9.9Home team on offense+36.1Score differential+30.4Blowout margin+16.1Garbage-time factor+10.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:52: Dequan Finn pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 32 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK) — BAY win probability +0.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 4:12: Jaden Pete pass intercepted Keaton Thomas return for 35 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK) — BAY win probability +0.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TAR has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 9:59: Dawson Pendergrass run for 1 yd for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK) — BAY win probability +0.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 11:23: Adrian Guzman 34 yd FG GOOD — TAR win probability +0.7 pts (now 1%) (top driver: TAR has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:11: Dequan Finn pass complete to Michael Trigg for 17 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK) — BAY win probability +0.4 pts (now 100%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 5 of 5TAR made the numbers' call on 9 of 12
  1. Q1 10:14TAR 4th & 22 at TAR 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.9%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:34BAY 4th & 7 at BAY 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:08TAR 4th & 21 at TAR 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.2%−0.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:58TAR 4th & 1 at TAR 17, down 21
    Close callPunted · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:00BAY 4th & 14 at BAY 39, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%−0.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:54TAR 4th & 4 at TAR 17, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:59BAY 4th & 1 at TAR 1, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    97.5%−0.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    96.7%−1.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:12TAR 4th & 9 at TAR 26, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:02TAR 4th & 6 at BAY 7, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:23TAR 4th & 4 at BAY 17, down 28
    Close callKicked a field goal · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.6%−<0.1
    80% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:30TAR 4th & 3 at BAY 33, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:45TAR 4th & 4 at TAR 9, down 32
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:57BAY 4th & 3 at TAR 5, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:29TAR 4th & 9 at TAR 7, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:37BAY 4th & 20 at TAR 22, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%
    72% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:16TAR 4th & 11 at TAR 24, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:57TAR 4th & 3 at TAR 32, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BAY made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 13:37BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:52BAY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:12BAY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:59BAY Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:11BAY Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:51BAY Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BAYDrive 1TD
5 plays · 66 yds · 1:2297% → 97%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
97.4%
Richard Reese run for 3 yds to the BAY 37Similar
Q1 14:41
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+6
97.3%
Richard Reese run for 6 yds to the BAY 43Similar
Q1 14:21
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+4
97.3%
Richard Reese run for 4 yds to the BAY 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+14
97.3%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Josh Cameron for 14 yds to the TAR 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
97.3%
Dequan Finn run for 39 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TARDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · -1 yds · 3:233% → 3%
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
97.2%
Kayvon Britten run for 2 yds to the TAR 27Similar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
97.2%
Kayvon Britten run for 4 yds to the TAR 31Similar
Q1 12:33
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
97.1%
Kayvon Britten run for 5 yds to the TAR 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
97.0%
Kayvon Britten run for no gain to the TAR 36Similar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-7
97.0%
Jaden Pete sacked by Garmon Randolph for a loss of 7 yards to the TAR 29Similar
Q1 10:52
3RD & 17
OWN 29
-5
97.0%
run for a loss of 5 yards to the TAR 24 fumbled, recovered by TAR Kayvon Britten K. Britten return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q1 10:14
4TH & 22
OWN 24
0
96.9%
Adrian Guzman punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Josh Cameron at the BAY 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:3597% → 97%
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
96.9%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+5
96.9%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 5 yds to the BAY 42Similar
Q1 9:28
3RD & 5
OWN 42
-10
96.8%
(09:28) QB Keeper FINN, Dequan rush up the middle for a gain of 3 yards to the BAY45 (HOLT, Caden), clock 09:29. PENALTY BAY Holding on AIGBEDION, Omar enforced 10 yards from the BAY42 to the BAY32 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 9:19
3RD & 15
OWN 32
+8
96.7%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Dawson Pendergrass for 8 yds to the BAY 40Similar
Q1 8:34
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
96.6%
Palmer Williams punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TARDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -11 yds · 1:203% → 3%
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-3
96.6%
Jaden Pete run for a loss of 3 yards to the TAR 20Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 13
OWN 20
0
96.6%
Jaden Pete pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:46
3RD & 13
OWN 20
-8
96.6%
Jaden Pete sacked by Treven Ma'ae for a loss of 8 yards to the TAR 12Similar
Q1 7:08
4TH & 21
OWN 12
0
96.6%
Adrian Guzman punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 5TD
5 plays · 46 yds · 2:0997% → 97%
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
96.6%
Dequan Finn run for no gain to the TAR 46Similar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+5
96.5%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 5 yds to the TAR 41Similar
Q1 6:04
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+6
96.4%
Richard Reese run for 6 yds to the TAR 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
96.4%
Richard Reese run for 3 yds to the TAR 32Similar
Q1 4:52
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+32
96.9%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 32 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TARDrive 6INT TD
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:373% → 3%
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
96.7%
Derrel Kelley III run for 3 yds to the TAR 28Similar
Q1 4:12
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-35
97.3%
Jaden Pete pass intercepted Keaton Thomas return for 35 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TARDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:033% → 3%
Q1 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
97.4%
Derrel Kelley III run for 3 yds to the TAR 11Similar
Q1 3:25
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+4
97.5%
Daniel Greek run for 4 yds to the TAR 15Similar
Q1 2:45
3RD & 3
OWN 15
+2
97.5%
Derrel Kelley III run for 2 yds to the TAR 17Similar
Q1 1:58
4TH & 1
OWN 17
0
97.5%
Adrian Guzman punt for 40 yds, downed at the BAY 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:5298% → 97%
Q1 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-11
97.6%
Dequan Finn sacked by Caimyn Layne for a loss of 11 yards to the BAY 32Similar
Q1 1:21
2ND & 21
OWN 32
+2
97.4%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Richard Reese for 2 yds to the BAY 34Similar
Q1 0:37
3RD & 19
OWN 34
+5
97.3%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Richard Reese for 5 yds to the BAY 39Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 14
OWN 39
0
97.4%
Palmer Williams punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Blake Smith at the TAR 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TARDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:532% → 2%
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
97.6%
Kayvon Britten run for 4 yds to the TAR 15Similar
Q2 14:25
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+2
97.6%
Kayvon Britten run for 2 yds to the TAR 17Similar
Q2 13:52
3RD & 4
OWN 17
-5
97.6%
Tarleton State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TAR 12Similar
Q2 13:34
3RD & 9
OWN 12
+5
97.6%
Kayvon Britten run for 5 yds to the TAR 17Similar
Q2 12:54
4TH & 4
OWN 17
0
97.7%
Adrian Guzman punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Josh Cameron at the BAY 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 10TD
9 plays · 66 yds · 2:5098% → 99%
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
97.8%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 7 yds to the BAY 41Similar
Q2 12:24
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+8
97.9%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 8 yds to the BAY 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
97.9%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 2 yds to the TAR 49Similar
Q2 11:40
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+2
97.9%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 2 yds to the TAR 47Similar
Q2 11:15
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+39
97.8%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr. for 39 yds to the TAR 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
97.9%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
97.9%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 4 yds to the TAR 4Similar
Q2 10:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
97.8%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 3 yds to the TAR 1Similar
Q2 9:59
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.6%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 1 yd for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TARDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:461% → 1%
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.7%
Derrel Kelley III run for no gain to the TAR 25Similar
Q2 9:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
98.8%
Derrel Kelley III run for 1 yd to the TAR 26Similar
Q2 8:49
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
98.8%
Daniel Greek pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:12
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
98.8%
Adrian Guzman punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12INT
13 plays · 43 yds · 5:1499% → 99%
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
98.9%
Richard Reese run for 8 yds to the BAY 48Similar
Q2 7:52
2ND & 2
OWN 48
0
98.9%
Richard Reese run for no gain to the BAY 48Similar
Q2 7:11
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+3
98.9%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 3 yds to the TAR 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
99.0%
Richard Reese run for 3 yds to the TAR 46Similar
Q2 6:14
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+2
99.0%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jadon Porter for 2 yds to the TAR 44Similar
Q2 5:53
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+8
99.0%
Richard Reese run for 8 yds to the TAR 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-4
99.1%
Dequan Finn run for a loss of 4 yards to the TAR 40Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 14
OPP 40
+2
99.1%
Richard Reese run for 2 yds to the TAR 38Similar
Q2 4:04
3RD & 12
OPP 38
+15
99.2%
(04:04) FINN, Dequan pass deep to the right incomplete intended for TRIGG, Michael broken up by STUART, Donta at the TAR20, clock 03:51. PENALTY TAR Pass Interference on STUART, Donta enforced 15 yards to the TAR23 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+16
99.2%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Michael Trigg for 16 yds to the TAR 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-10
99.2%
(03:25) QB Keeper FINN, Dequan rush to the left for a gain of 6 yards to the TAR1, End of Play, clock 03:21. PENALTY BAY Holding on FUGAR, Sidney enforced 10 yards from the TAR7 to the TAR17 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 3:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 17
0
99.2%
Dequan Finn pass intercepted, touchback. Kasyus Kurns return for no gainSimilar
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
99.2%
(02:56) GREEK, Daniel pass deep to the right incomplete intended for COOPER, Darius thrown to the TAR48, clock 02:50. PENALTY BAY Pass Interference on THORNTON JR., LeVar enforced 15 yards to the TAR35 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TARDrive 13MISSED FG
9 plays · 73 yds · 2:461% → 1%
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+35
99.2%
Daniel Greek pass complete to Darius Cooper for 35 yds to the BAY 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
99.1%
Kayvon Britten run for no gain to the BAY 30Similar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+4
99.2%
Daniel Greek pass complete to Dawson Hearne for 4 yds to the BAY 26Similar
Q2 1:19
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+3
99.1%
Baylor Penalty, Personal Foul (Steve Linton) to the BAY 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
99.2%
Kayvon Britten run for 2 yds to the BAY 9Similar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+2
99.0%
Kayvon Britten run for 2 yds to the BAY 7Similar
Q2 0:11
3RD & 6
OPP 7
0
98.9%
Daniel Greek pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:02
4TH & 6
OPP 7
+24
98.9%
Michael James 24 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
99.3%
Richard Reese run for 3 yds to the BAY 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TARDrive 15FG
8 plays · 58 yds · 3:371% → 1%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.3%
Daniel Greek pass complete to Darius Cooper for 9 yds to the TAR 34Similar
Q3 14:36
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+30
96.5%
Kayvon Britten run for 30 yds to the BAY 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
99.5%
Kayvon Britten run for 9 yds to the BAY 27Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 1
OPP 27
+4
99.4%
Daniel Greek pass complete to Dawson Hearne for 4 yds to the BAY 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
99.5%
Daniel Greek pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:46
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+3
99.5%
Derrel Kelley III run for 3 yds to the BAY 20Similar
Q3 12:09
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+3
99.6%
Daniel Greek run for 3 yds to the BAY 17Similar
Q3 11:23
4TH & 4
OPP 17
+34
98.9%
Adrian Guzman 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 16TD
8 plays · 63 yds · 3:0499% → 100%
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
99.1%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 1 yd to the BAY 38Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+1
99.2%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Dawson Pendergrass for 1 yd to the BAY 39Similar
Q3 10:01
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+22
99.2%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 22 yds to the TAR 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
99.3%
(09:30) FINN, Dequan pass deep to the left intercepted by RAWLS, Ty at the TAR0 intended for JACKSON JR., Ketron. Rawls return for 0 yards to the TAR0, touchback., clock 09:28. PENALTY TAR Holding on RAWLS, Ty enforced 10 yards from the TAR39 to the TAR29 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
99.3%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 8 yds to the TAR 21Similar
Q3 9:09
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+4
99.3%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 4 yds to the TAR 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
99.3%
Dawson Pendergrass run for no gain to the TAR 17Similar
Q3 8:11
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+17
99.7%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Michael Trigg for 17 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TARDrive 17DOWNS
10 plays · 42 yds · 4:390% → 0%
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.6%
Braelon Bridges run for 2 yds to the TAR 27Similar
Q3 7:36
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
99.5%
Braelon Bridges run for 7 yds to the TAR 34Similar
Q3 7:09
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
99.4%
Braelon Bridges run for 3 yds to the TAR 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
99.4%
Daniel Greek pass complete to Benjamin Omayebu for 11 yds to the TAR 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
99.3%
Braelon Bridges run for 1 yd to the TAR 49Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+11
99.3%
Daniel Greek pass complete to Benjamin Omayebu for 11 yds to the BAY 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
99.2%
Daniel Greek pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:47
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+6
99.2%
Braelon Bridges run for 6 yds to the BAY 34Similar
Q3 4:06
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+1
99.4%
Braelon Bridges run for 1 yd to the BAY 33Similar
Q3 3:30
4TH & 3
OPP 33
0
99.7%
Daniel Greek pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 18INT
3 plays · 21 yds · 0:30100% → 100%
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+21
99.8%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jadon Porter for 21 yds to the TAR 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
99.8%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:56
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
99.8%
Dequan Finn pass intercepted Ty Rawls return for no gain to the TAR 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TARDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 2:060% → 0%
Q3 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+1
99.8%
Derrel Kelley III run for 1 yd to the TAR 4Similar
Q3 2:04
2ND & 9
OWN 4
+6
99.9%
Daniel Greek pass complete to Benjamin Omayebu for 6 yds to the TAR 10Similar
Q3 1:28
3RD & 3
OWN 10
-1
99.9%
Daniel Greek run for a loss of 1 yard to the TAR 9Similar
Q3 0:45
4TH & 4
OWN 9
+9
99.9%
Adrian Guzman punt for 34 yds , Josh Cameron returns for 9 yds to the TAR 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 20DOWNS
6 plays · 29 yds · 1:40100% → 100%
Q3 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-2
99.8%
Richard Reese run for a loss of 2 yards to the TAR 36Similar
Q3 0:12
2ND & 12
OPP 36
+24
99.8%
Richard Reese run for 24 yds to the TAR 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:59
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
99.8%
Richard Reese run for 5 yds to the TAR 7Similar
Q4 14:42
2ND & 5
OPP 7
0
99.9%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:34
3RD & 5
OPP 7
+2
99.8%
Richard Reese run for 2 yds to the TAR 5Similar
Q4 13:57
4TH & 3
OPP 5
0
99.9%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TARDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:230% → 0%
Q4 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
99.9%
Daniel Greek pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+1
99.9%
Braelon Bridges run for 1 yd to the TAR 7Similar
Q4 13:09
3RD & 9
OWN 7
0
99.9%
Derrel Kelley III run for no gain to the TAR 7Similar
Q4 12:29
4TH & 9
OWN 7
+9
99.9%
Adrian Guzman punt for 46 yds , Josh Cameron returns for 9 yds to the TAR 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 22FG
9 plays · 22 yds · 2:39100% → 100%
Q4 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
99.9%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 6 yds to the TAR 38Similar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+3
99.9%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 3 yds to the TAR 35Similar
Q4 11:40
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+2
99.9%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 2 yds to the TAR 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
99.9%
Tarleton State Penalty, Personal Foul (AJ Owens) to the TAR 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-12
99.9%
Dequan Finn run for a loss of 12 yards to the TAR 24 Dequan Finn fumbled, recovered by BAY Dequan Finn D. Finn return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q4 10:26
2ND & 22
OPP 24
0
99.9%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:25
3RD & 22
OPP 24
-5
99.9%
Baylor Penalty, False Start (Omar Aigbedion) to the TAR 29Similar
Q4 10:18
3RD & 27
OPP 29
+7
99.9%
Dequan Finn run for 7 yds to the TAR 22Similar
Q4 9:37
4TH & 20
OPP 22
+39
99.9%
Isaiah Hankins 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TARDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 2:190% → 0%
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.9%
Derrel Kelley III run for 3 yds to the TAR 28Similar
Q4 9:03
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-10
99.9%
(09:03) KELLEY III, Derrel rush to the right for no gain to the TAR28 (MILLER, Brooks;THORNTON JR., LeVar), clock 08:58. PENALTY TAR Holding on ERNST, Layton enforced 10 yards from the TAR28 to the TAR18 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:37
2ND & 17
OWN 18
0
99.9%
Derrel Kelley III run for no gain to the TAR 18Similar
Q4 7:56
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+6
99.9%
Derrel Kelley III run for 6 yds to the TAR 24Similar
Q4 7:16
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
99.9%
Adrian Guzman punt for 44 yds, downed at the BAY 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 24TD
10 plays · 83 yds · 3:13100% → 100%
Q4 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-2
99.9%
Richard Reese run for a loss of 2 yards to the BAY 15Similar
Q4 6:35
2ND & 12
OWN 15
0
99.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:27
3RD & 12
OWN 15
+23
99.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Matthew Klopfenstein for 23 yds to the BAY 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
99.9%
Richard Reese run for 2 yds to the BAY 40Similar
Q4 5:31
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+3
99.9%
Richard Reese run for 3 yds to the BAY 43Similar
Q4 5:12
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+10
99.9%
(05:12) ROBERTSON, Sawyer pass short to the left incomplete intended for CAMERON, Josh thrown to the BAY47, clock 05:06. PENALTY TAR Holding on KURNS, Kasyus enforced 10 yards from the BAY43 to the TAR47 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+14
99.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 14 yds to the TAR 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
99.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+3
99.9%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 3 yds to the TAR 30Similar
Q4 3:51
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+30
99.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr. for 30 yds for a TD (Connor Hawkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TARDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:450% → 0%
Q4 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
100.0%
Braelon Bridges run for no gain to the TAR 25Similar
Q4 3:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
100.0%
Braelon Bridges run for 3 yds to the TAR 28Similar
Q4 2:25
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+4
100.0%
Braelon Bridges run for 4 yds to the TAR 32Similar
Q4 1:57
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
99.9%
Adrian Guzman punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Josh Cameron at the BAY 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 26END OF GAME
3 plays · 24 yds · 1:26100% → 100%
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
99.9%
Joseph Hagman run for 1 yd to the BAY 30Similar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+4
100.0%
Joseph Hagman run for 4 yds to the BAY 34Similar
Q4 0:25
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+19
100.0%
Nate Bennett pass complete to Micah Gifford for 19 yds to the TAR 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:59
Dawson Pendergrass run for 1 yd for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)
+0.9
FG · Q3 11:23
Adrian Guzman 34 yd FG GOOD
-0.7
TD · Q1 4:12
Jaden Pete pass intercepted Keaton Thomas return for 35 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)
+0.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com