2024 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2024 · Mountain America Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · ASU
modelASU aheadWYO aheadconfidence bandkey playASU scoreWYO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:16 · Kanyon Floyd punt for 51 yds , Caleb Cooley returns for 6 yds to the WYO 26
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- FG · Q1 6:19: Ian Hershey 29 yd FG GOOD — ASU win probability +0.4 pts (now 74%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 0:00: DeCarlos Brooks run for 8 yds for a TD (Ian Hershey KICK) — ASU win probability +7.6 pts (now 83%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:47: Cam Skattebo run for 3 yds for a TD (Ian Hershey KICK) — ASU win probability +4.0 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 4:28: Ian Hershey 24 yd FG GOOD — ASU win probability +5.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:03: Chamon Metayer 25 Yd pass from Sam Leavitt (Ian Hershey Kick) — ASU win probability +0.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ASU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7WYO made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
- Q1 6:19ASU 4th & 9 at WYO 12, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.1% before the snapGo for it69.8%−0.227% to convertField goalTheir call70.0%86% to makePunt68.6%−1.4average punt
- Q1 5:00WYO 4th & 5 at WYO 29, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.6% before the snapGo for it29.7%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.8%average punt
- Q2 13:01WYO 4th & 10 at WYO 38, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.9% before the snapGo for it19.2%−1.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.3%average punt
- Q2 9:47ASU 4th & 2 at WYO 3, up 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call83.3%49% to convertField goal81.8%−1.593% to makePunt75.7%−7.6average punt
- Q2 7:51WYO 4th & 13 at WYO 22, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.6% before the snapGo for it10.2%−2.019% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.2%average punt
- Q2 4:28ASU 4th & 5 at WYO 7, up 24Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.9% before the snapGo for it90.4%−0.134% to convertField goalTheir call90.5%91% to makePunt86.6%−3.9average punt
- Q2 2:43WYO 4th & 8 at WYO 26, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snapGo for it2.2%−0.633% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.8%average punt
- Q2 0:13ASU 4th & 19 at WYO 21, up 27Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.8% before the snapGo for it96.9%−1.410% to convertField goalTheir call98.3%74% to makePunt96.0%−2.4average punt
- Q3 9:13WYO 4th & 4 at WYO 31, down 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snapGo for it1.0%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.0%average punt
- Q3 6:45ASU 4th & 14 at WYO 41, up 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.3% before the snapGo for it99.3%−0.119% to convertField goal99.3%−<0.132% to makePuntTheir call99.4%average punt
- Q3 5:20WYO 4th & 9 at WYO 26, down 41Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.4%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q3 3:28WYO 4th & 1 at WYO 35, down 48Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.4%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.3%−0.1average punt
- Q4 14:44WYO 4th & 11 at WYO 36, down 48Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 5:54ASU 4th & 9 at WYO 26, up 48Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.131% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%64% to makePunt99.6%−0.3average punt
- Q4 4:28WYO 4th & 7 at WYO 29, down 48Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 2:16ASU 4th & 3 at ASU 29, up 48Close callPunted · 100.0% before the snapGo for it99.9%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ASU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6WYO made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 14:19ASU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call68.3%97% to makeGo for two68.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:00ASU Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call75.2%97% to makeGo for two75.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:47ASU Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.2%97% to makeGo for two88.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:03ASU Touchdown, up 33 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.0%97% to makeGo for two99.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:07ASU Touchdown, up 40 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:34ASU Touchdown, up 47 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 0:02WYO Touchdown, down 42 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.0%97% to makeGo for two0.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWYODrive 1INT TD3 plays · 1 yds · 0:4128% → 27%
WYODrive 2INT12 plays · 16 yds · 4:1827% → 27%
Q1 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
72.5%
No Huddle Jones,D.J. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ASU43 (McCullough,Caleb; Rowser,Myles) PENALTY WYO Illegal Formation 5 yards from ASU46 to WYO49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 17
OWN 47
-5
72.6%
PENALTY WYO False Start (Tulafono,Nofoafia) 5 yards from WYO47 to WYO42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:59
3RD & 18
OWN 46
-5
72.9%
PENALTY WYO False Start (King,Wes) 5 yards from WYO46 to WYO41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:01
3RD & 23
OWN 41
0
73.1%
Evan Svoboda pass intercepted Keyshaun Elliott return for no gain to the WYO 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 3FG8 plays · 30 yds · 3:4274% → 74%
WYODrive 4PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1726% → 25%
Q1 5:00
4TH & 5
OWN 29
0
75.1%
Jack Culbreath punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Melquan Stovall at the ASU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 5TD10 plays · 72 yds · 5:0075% → 83%
Q1 5:00
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+24
75.3%
Cam Skattebo run for 9 yds to the WYO 44 for a 1ST down Wyoming Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Sabastian Harsh) to the WYO 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 6PUNT9 plays · 13 yds · 1:5919% → 18%
ASUDrive 7TD8 plays · 43 yds · 3:1485% → 90%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 8PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 1:5611% → 10%
ASUDrive 9FG8 plays · 52 yds · 3:2391% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 10PUNT6 plays · 2 yds · 1:393% → 2%
ASUDrive 11MISSED FG11 plays · 54 yds · 2:3097% → 98%
Q2 0:50
2ND & 10
OPP 12
-9
97.4%
Sam Leavitt sacked by Braden Siders for a loss of 9 yards to the WYO 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 12END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:002% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 13TD10 plays · 75 yds · 3:5798% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 14PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:501% → 1%
Q3 9:13
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+7
99.1%
Jack Culbreath punt for 54 yds , Melquan Stovall returns for 7 yds to the ASU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 15PUNT8 plays · 37 yds · 2:2899% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 16FUMBLE RETURN TD2 plays · -14 yds · 0:381% → 0%
WYODrive 17PUNT6 plays · 1 yds · 0:470% → 0%
Q3 5:20
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+1
99.6%
Jack Culbreath punt for 42 yds , Melquan Stovall returns for 1 yd to the ASU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 18TD4 plays · 67 yds · 1:46100% → 100%
Q3 5:20
3RD & 6
OWN 37
-5
99.5%
PENALTY ASU False Start (Guillory,Xavier) 5 yards from ASU37 to ASU32. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 19PUNT9 plays · 10 yds · 3:440% → 0%
ASUDrive 20MISSED FG14 plays · 62 yds · 8:50100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 21PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:260% → 0%
Q4 4:28
4TH & 7
OWN 29
0
100.0%
Jack Culbreath punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Melquan Stovall at the ASU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 22PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 2:12100% → 100%
Q4 2:16
4TH & 3
OWN 29
+6
99.9%
Kanyon Floyd punt for 51 yds , Caleb Cooley returns for 6 yds to the WYO 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 23TD13 plays · 74 yds · 2:140% → 0%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+15
100.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Anderson,Kaden pass incomplete short right to Sargent,Jaylen thrown to ASU00 PENALTY ASU Pass Interference (Bimage Jr.,Rodney) 15 yards from ASU19 to ASU04, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
100.0%
Chris Durr Jr. 3 Yd pass from Kaden Anderson (John Hoyland Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 0:00
DeCarlos Brooks run for 8 yds for a TD (Ian Hershey KICK)
+7.6
FG · Q2 4:28
Ian Hershey 24 yd FG GOOD
+5.3
TD · Q2 9:47
Cam Skattebo run for 3 yds for a TD (Ian Hershey KICK)
+4