2024 · Week 1 · Aug 29, 2024 · Rice-Eccles Stadium
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Win probability · UTAH
modelUTAH aheadSUU aheadconfidence bandkey playUTAH scoreSUU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:21 · (00:21) Kneel down by ROSE, Brandon at UTA43 (team loss of 1), clock 00:17.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 8:46: Cameron Rising pass complete to Dijon Stanley for 64 yds for a TD (Cole Becker KICK) — UTAH win probability +0.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 14:48: Cameron Rising pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 29 yds for a TD (Cole Becker KICK) — UTAH win probability +0.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 14:42: Timeout Southern Utah, clock 14:42 — SUU win probability +0.3 pts (now 3%) (top driver: SUU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:27: Cameron Rising pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 18 yds for a TD (Cole Becker KICK) — UTAH win probability +0.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:04: Cameron Rising pass complete to Dijon Stanley for 79 yds for a TD (Cole Becker KICK) — UTAH win probability +0.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UTAH made the numbers' call on 4 of 4SUU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
- Q1 11:48SUU 4th & 2 at SUU 48, tiedClose callPunted · 2.0% before the snapGo for it2.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.0%−0.1average punt
- Q1 2:55SUU 4th & 8 at UTAH 37, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.9%35% to convertField goal2.9%−<0.140% to makePunt2.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 0:41UTAH 4th & 1 at SUU 41, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.8%70% to convertField goal96.6%−0.232% to makePunt96.6%−0.2average punt
- Q2 13:17SUU 4th & 12 at SUU 20, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snapGo for it2.6%−0.221% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.8%average punt
- Q2 9:24SUU 4th & 8 at SUU 39, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snapGo for it1.5%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.6%average punt
- Q2 6:49SUU 4th & 2 at SUU 29, down 28Close callPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.7%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%−0.2average punt
- Q3 13:31UTAH 4th & 6 at UTAH 29, up 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snapGo for it99.6%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.7%average punt
- Q3 7:38UTAH 4th & 3 at SUU 39, up 35Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.8%53% to convertField goal99.7%−0.136% to makePunt99.7%−0.1average punt
- Q3 1:59SUU 4th & 17 at SUU 18, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.213% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 11:12SUU 4th & 11 at SUU 3, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.122% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 9:42SUU 4th & 21 at SUU 14, down 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.1%−0.18% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 5:32UTAH 4th & 1 at SUU 38, up 49Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%70% to convertField goal99.7%−0.238% to makePunt99.7%−0.2average punt
- Q4 2:00SUU 4th & 10 at UTAH 31, down 49Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.129% to convertField goalTheir call0.0%54% to makePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTAH made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q1 8:46UTAH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.8%97% to makeGo for two97.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:48UTAH Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.3%97% to makeGo for two97.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:27UTAH Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.5%97% to makeGo for two98.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:04UTAH Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:08UTAH Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:23UTAH Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:05UTAH Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSUUDrive 1PUNT8 plays · 23 yds · 3:122% → 2%
Q1 12:33
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+8
98.0%
Jackson Berry pass complete to Targhee Lambson for 8 yds to the SUU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 2TD7 plays · 90 yds · 2:5698% → 98%
Q1 11:38
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+7
97.9%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Dijon Stanley for 7 yds to the UTAH 17Similar
Q1 10:56
3RD & 3
OWN 17
+4
97.8%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Money Parks for 4 yds to the UTAH 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:46
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+64
97.8%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Dijon Stanley for 64 yds for a TD (Cole Becker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SUUDrive 3DOWNS9 plays · 32 yds · 5:452% → 3%
Q1 6:05
3RD & 7
50
+11
97.4%
Jackson Berry pass complete to Mark Bails Jr. for 11 yds to the UTAH 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:35
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-1
97.2%
Jackson Berry pass complete to Joshua Acord for a loss of 1 yard to the UTAH 40Similar
Q1 3:47
3RD & 11
OPP 40
+3
97.1%
Jackson Berry pass complete to Jordan Jefferson for 3 yds to the UTAH 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 4TD8 plays · 67 yds · 3:0197% → 98%
Q1 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+17
97.2%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Dorian Singer for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
96.9%
Mike Mitchell run for 9 yds to the SUU 29 Mike Mitchell fumbled, recovered by UTAH Mike Mitchell M. Mitchell return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+29
97.7%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 29 yds for a TD (Cole Becker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SUUDrive 5PUNT6 plays · -2 yds · 1:323% → 2%
Q2 13:56
3RD & 9
OWN 23
-3
97.4%
Jackson Berry sacked by Logan Fano and Connor O'Toole for a loss of 3 yards to the SUU 20Similar
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
97.6%
(13:10) GLOVER, Jaylon rush up the middle for a gain of 7 yards to the SUU41 (BROWN, Lando), clock 13:05. PENALTY SUU Offsides on HARRIS, Walker enforced 5 yards from the SUU48 to the SUU43 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 6TD3 plays · 48 yds · 1:1998% → 99%
SUUDrive 7PUNT6 plays · 20 yds · 1:572% → 2%
Q2 9:24
4TH & 8
OWN 39
0
98.4%
Alyas Vigil punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jaylon Glover at the UTAH 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 8TD1 play · 79 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+79
99.2%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Dijon Stanley for 79 yds for a TD (Cole Becker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SUUDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 2:081% → 1%
Q2 6:49
4TH & 2
OWN 29
0
99.4%
Alyas Vigil punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jaylon Glover at the UTAH 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 10TD17 plays · 74 yds · 5:3399% → 100%
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+14
99.5%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Dorian Singer for 14 yds to the SUU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
4TH & 17
OPP 41
+5
99.4%
(01:52) BOUWMEESTER, Jack punt 41 yards to the SUU0, Touchback, clock 01:46. PENALTY SUU Running Into the kicker on STABLER, Jack enforced 5 yards from the SUU41 to the SUU36 [FAKE PUNT]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:46
4TH & 12
OPP 36
+15
99.4%
(01:46) RISING, Cameron pass deep to the left incomplete intended for SINGER, Dorian thrown to the SUU18, clock 01:39. PENALTY SUU Pass Interference on ROBERTSON, Jayden enforced 15 yards to the SUU21 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
99.6%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 11 yds for a TD (Cole Becker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SUUDrive 11PUNT10 plays · -15 yds · 0:310% → 0%
Q2 0:56
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+9
99.8%
Bronson Barron pass complete to Mark Bails Jr. for 9 yds to the SUU 29Similar
Q2 0:51
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+5
99.7%
Utah Penalty, Delay Of Game (Junior Tafuna) to the SUU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-10
99.7%
(00:43) BARRON, Bronson scrambles to the right for a gain of 2 yards to the SUU36 (REID, Karene), out of bounds, clock 00:39. PENALTY SUU Holding on SFARCIOC, Kyle enforced 10 yards from the SUU34 to the SUU24 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 20
OWN 24
-15
99.8%
Southern Utah Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Bronson Barron) to the SUU 9Similar
Q2 0:30
4TH & 39
OWN 5
-4
99.8%
Alyas Vigil punt for 37 yds , Rayshawn Glover returns for a loss of 4 yards to the SUU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 12INT4 plays · -4 yds · 0:13100% → 100%
SUUDrive 13END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 14PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:28100% → 100%
SUUDrive 15INT6 plays · 36 yds · 2:400% → 0%
Q3 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
99.7%
Jackson Berry pass complete to Joshua Acord for 11 yds to the SUU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:04
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+22
99.7%
Jackson Berry pass complete to Mark Bails Jr. for 22 yds to the UTAH 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:38
2ND & 8
OPP 37
-13
99.8%
Jackson Berry pass intercepted Elijah Davis return for 13 yds to the UTAH 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 16TD14 plays · 57 yds · 6:07100% → 100%
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
99.8%
Isaac Wilson pass complete to Miki Suguturaga for 3 yds to the SUU 43Similar
Q3 7:38
4TH & 3
OPP 39
+19
99.8%
Isaac Wilson pass complete to Daidren Zipperer for 19 yds to the SUU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-15
99.8%
Utah Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Logan Fano) to the SUU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+9
99.8%
Isaac Wilson pass complete to Luca Caldarella for 9 yds to the SUU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SUUDrive 17PUNT5 plays · -7 yds · 2:240% → 0%
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
(04:23) BERRY, Jackson pass deep to the right complete for 37 yards to BAILS JR., Mark caught at the UTA45 and advanced to the UTA38 (DAVIS, Elijah), clock 04:07. PENALTY SUU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on RILEY, Edward declined SUU Holding on ACORD, Joshua enforced 10 yards from the SUU25 to the SUU15 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 3:13
2ND & 21
OWN 14
-7
99.9%
Jackson Berry sacked by Van Fillinger for a loss of 7 yards to the SUU 7Similar
Q3 1:59
4TH & 17
OWN 18
-2
99.9%
Alyas Vigil punt for 41 yds , Rayshawn Glover returns for a loss of 2 yards to the UTAH 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 18INT7 plays · 48 yds · 3:29100% → 100%
SUUDrive 19PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 1:470% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 20TD1 play · 20 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
99.9%
Isaac Wilson pass complete to Caleb Lohner for 20 yds for a TD (Trey Coleman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SUUDrive 21PUNT6 plays · -11 yds · 1:230% → 0%
UTAHDrive 22DOWNS7 plays · 19 yds · 3:56100% → 100%
Q4 7:24
2ND & 8
OPP 45
-10
100.0%
(07:24) STANLEY, Dijon rush to the right for a gain of 9 yards to the SUU36 (FEAZELL, Darrian), clock 07:19. PENALTY UTA Holding on WILLIAMS, Zacharyus enforced 10 yards from the SUU45 to the UTA45 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 6:53
2ND & 18
OWN 45
+15
100.0%
Hunter Andrews run for 15 yds to the SUU 40 Hunter Andrews fumbled, recovered by UTAH return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SUUDrive 23MISSED FG8 plays · 31 yds · 3:270% → 0%
Q4 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+13
100.0%
Niko Alailefaleula run for 13 yds to the UTAH 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-8
100.0%
Jordan Pachot sacked by John Henry Daley for a loss of 8 yards to the UTAH 39Similar
Q4 2:33
3RD & 18
OPP 39
+8
100.0%
Jordan Pachot pass complete to Niko Alailefaleula for 8 yds to the UTAH 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 11:27
Cameron Rising pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 18 yds for a TD (Cole Becker KICK)
+0.9
TD · Q2 9:04
Cameron Rising pass complete to Dijon Stanley for 79 yds for a TD (Cole Becker KICK)
+0.8
TD · Q2 14:48
Cameron Rising pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 29 yds for a TD (Cole Becker KICK)
+0.7