What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:58 · Patrick Turner punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KU 34
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
TD · Q2 10:11: Devin Neal run for 1 yd for a TD (Tabor Allen KICK) — KU win probability +0.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
TD · Q2 8:42: Mello Dotson 33 Yd Interception Return (Tabor Allen PAT failed) — KU win probability +0.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: LIN has the ball).
TD · Q2 7:07: Luke Grimm 58 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Tabor Allen Kick) — KU win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
KU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3LIN made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
Q1 13:39LIN4th & 4 at LIN 31, tied
Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
Go for it
0.6%−0.1
48% to convert
Field goal
Out of range
PuntTheir call
0.6%
average punt
Q1 11:28KU4th & 3 at LIN 36, tied
Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.3% before the snap
Go for itTheir call
99.3%
53% to convert
Field goal
99.2%−0.1
42% to make
Punt
99.2%−0.1
average punt
Q1 5:35LIN4th & 5 at KU 37, down 7
Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
Go for itTheir call
1.0%
42% to convert
Field goal
1.0%−0.1
40% to make
Punt
0.9%−0.1
average punt
Q1 0:29LIN4th & 11 at LIN 42, down 7
Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snap
Go for it
1.3%−0.1
26% to convert
Field goal
Out of range
PuntTheir call
1.4%
average punt
Q2 13:34LIN4th & 6 at KU 44, down 7
Close callPunted · 1.6% before the snap
Go for it
1.6%
40% to convert
Field goal
1.5%−0.1
27% to make
PuntTheir call
1.6%−<0.1
average punt
Q2 7:58LIN4th & 6 at LIN 29, down 20
Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
Go for it
0.7%−<0.1
39% to convert
Field goal
Out of range
PuntTheir call
0.8%
average punt
Q2 3:04LIN4th & 14 at KU 46, down 27
Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
Go for it
0.2%−<0.1
19% to convert
Field goal
0.2%−<0.1
23% to make
PuntTheir call
0.2%
average punt
Q3 4:01LIN4th & 12 at KU 42, down 41
Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
Go for it
0.1%−<0.1
24% to convert
Field goal
0.1%−<0.1
30% to make
PuntTheir call
0.1%
average punt
Q4 13:22KU4th & 4 at LIN 4, up 41
Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
Go for itTheir call
99.9%
40% to convert
Field goal
99.9%−<0.1
93% to make
Punt
99.4%−0.5
average punt
Q4 6:12LIN4th & 4 at KU 17, down 48
Close callKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snap
Go for it
0.0%
47% to convert
Field goalTheir call
0.0%−<0.1
80% to make
Punt
-0.1%−0.2
average punt
Q4 0:00KU4th & 3 at LIN 41, up 45
Close callWent for it · 100.0% before the snap
Go for itTheir call
100.0%−<0.1
52% to convert
Field goal
100.0%
32% to make
Punt
99.9%−0.1
average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
Q1 9:44KUTouchdown, up 6 before the try
Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
KickTheir call
99.3%
97% to make
Go for two
99.3%−<0.1
45% to convert
Q2 10:11KUTouchdown, up 13 before the try
Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
KickTheir call
98.7%
97% to make
Go for two
98.6%−<0.1
45% to convert
Q2 8:42KUTouchdown, up 20 before the try
Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
KickTheir call
99.4%
97% to make
Go for two
99.4%−<0.1
45% to convert
Q2 7:07KUTouchdown, up 26 before the try
Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
KickTheir call
99.6%
97% to make
Go for two
99.6%−<0.1
45% to convert
Q2 0:04KUTouchdown, up 33 before the try
Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
KickTheir call
99.9%
97% to make
Go for two
99.9%−<0.1
45% to convert
Q3 8:23KUTouchdown, up 40 before the try
Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
KickTheir call
100.0%
97% to make
Go for two
100.0%−<0.1
45% to convert
Q4 13:22KUTouchdown, up 47 before the try
Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
KickTheir call
100.0%
97% to make
Go for two
100.0%−<0.1
45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Nate Glantz run for 6 yds to the LIN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
100.0%
(10:11) No Huddle-Shotgun Glantz,Nate pass incomplete short left to Caldwell,Jeff thrown to LU40 PENALTY KAN Pass Interference (Dilworth,Brian) 13 yards from LU36 to LU49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar