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BCU

Bethune-Cookman 3 at South Florida 48

USF
2024 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2024 · Raymond James Stadium
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Win probability · USF
modelUSF aheadBCU aheadconfidence bandkey playUSF scoreBCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:52 · Pierse Stainton punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Maleek Huggins at the BCU 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 163Home team on offense+34.0Score differential+29.2Pregame prior+3.1Blowout margin+16.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+15.2Garbage-time factor+13.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:21: Byrum Brown run for 42 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK) — USF win probability +2.4 pts (now 77%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 3:59: Kelley Joiner run for 2 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK) — USF win probability +3.3 pts (now 81%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 14:36: Ta'Ron Keith run for 1 yd for a TD (John Cannon KICK) — USF win probability +5.0 pts (now 89%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 4:39: Nay'Quan Wright run for 1 yd for a TD (John Cannon KICK) — USF win probability +2.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  5. FG · Q2 0:22: Cade Hechter 48 yd FG GOOD — BCU win probability +11.9 pts (now 14%) (top driver: BCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USF made the numbers' call on 5 of 7BCU made the numbers' call on 10 of 12
  1. Q1 13:41USF 4th & 1 at USF 29, tied
    Close callPunted · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.1%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:18BCU 4th & 18 at BCU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.5%−0.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:34BCU 4th & 9 at BCU 10, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.0%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:14BCU 4th & 9 at BCU 28, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.0%−1.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:03USF 4th & 6 at USF 47, up 21
    Close callPunted · 76.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:34BCU 4th & 13 at BCU 2, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%−2.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:33USF 4th & 2 at BCU 2, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    81.4%−1.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    74.6%−8.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:27BCU 4th & 10 at BCU 1, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.2%−2.5
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:22BCU 4th & 16 at USF 31, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%−2.4
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.1%
    54% to make
    Punt
    1.9%−3.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:47BCU 4th & 12 at BCU 23, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%−1.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:00USF 4th & 14 at BCU 22, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.9%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.4%
    72% to make
    Punt
    96.8%−1.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:28BCU 4th & 10 at BCU 49, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:38BCU 4th & 9 at USF 36, down 45
    Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−<0.1
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:20USF 4th & 10 at USF 20, up 45
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:45BCU 4th & 1 at BCU 48, down 45
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.0%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:27BCU 4th & 13 at BCU 46, down 45
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:52USF 4th & 14 at USF 36, up 45
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:26BCU 4th & 6 at USF 22, down 45
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%
    72% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:07USF 4th & 1 at USF 49, up 45
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    100.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USF made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 6:21USF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:59USF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:36USF Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:39USF Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:00USF Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:19USF Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USFDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1576% → 76%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
76.3%
Kelley Joiner run for 2 yds to the USF 22Similar
Q1 14:35
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+4
76.2%
Byrum Brown run for 4 yds to the USF 26Similar
Q1 14:22
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+3
76.1%
Byrum Brown run for 3 yds to the USF 29Similar
Q1 13:41
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+2
75.9%
Andrew Stokes punt for 50 yds , Maleek Huggins returns for 2 yds to the BCU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 17 yds · 4:1524% → 25%
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
75.9%
Courtney Reese run for a loss of 1 yard to the BCU 22Similar
Q1 13:03
2ND & 11
OWN 22
-2
75.8%
Micah Bowens run for a loss of 2 yards to the BCU 20Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 13
OWN 20
+15
75.8%
South Florida Penalty, Personal Foul (Jhalyn Shuler) to the BCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
75.4%
(11:56) BOWENS, Micah pass to the right incomplete intended for NANCE, Thomas broken up by SHULER, Jhalyn at the BCU38, clock 11:52. PENALTY USF Holding on BANKS, Kajuan enforced 10 yards from the BCU38 to the BCU48 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
75.3%
Courtney Reese run for no gain to the BCU 48Similar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+1
75.1%
Courtney Reese run for 1 yd to the BCU 49Similar
Q1 10:26
3RD & 9
OWN 49
-10
75.0%
(10:26) QB Keeper BOWENS, Micah rush to the left for a gain of 8 yards to the USF43 (HARRIS, Mac;MOSLEY, Ashton), clock 10:20. PENALTY BCU Holding on HAMMOND, Trevaris enforced 10 yards from the BCU49 to the BCU39 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 9:55
3RD & 19
OWN 39
+1
75.1%
Courtney Reese run for 1 yd to the BCU 40Similar
Q1 9:18
4TH & 18
OWN 40
+41
75.2%
Anthony Frederique punt for 41 yds , Sean Atkins returns for a loss of 1 yard to the USF 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 3TD
13 plays · 82 yds · 2:4975% → 77%
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
75.1%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 4 yds to the USF 22Similar
Q1 8:53
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+7
74.8%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 7 yds to the USF 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-5
74.7%
South Florida Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USF 24Similar
Q1 8:16
1ST & 15
OWN 24
0
74.8%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:12
2ND & 15
OWN 24
+11
74.8%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 11 yds to the USF 35Similar
Q1 7:54
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+4
74.7%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen for 4 yds to the USF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
74.7%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen for 5 yds to the USF 44Similar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+3
74.9%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 3 yds to the USF 47Similar
Q1 7:10
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+3
74.7%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
50
+8
74.9%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen for 8 yds to the BCU 42Similar
Q1 6:36
2ND & 2
OPP 42
0
75.0%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:21
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+42
77.4%
Byrum Brown run for 42 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 4INT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:3324% → 23%
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
76.3%
Courtney Reese run for a loss of 1 yard to the BCU 24Similar
Q1 5:43
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+3
76.5%
Courtney Reese run for 3 yds to the BCU 27Similar
Q1 5:11
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-5
76.7%
Bethune-Cookman Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BCU 22Similar
Q1 4:47
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-29
76.8%
Micah Bowens pass intercepted Jhalyn Shuler return for 29 yds to the BCU 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 5TD
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:3878% → 81%
Q1 4:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
77.9%
Kelley Joiner run for 3 yds to the BCU 3Similar
Q1 4:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
77.8%
Kelley Joiner run for 1 yd to the BCU 2Similar
Q1 3:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
81.1%
Kelley Joiner run for 2 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:1720% → 20%
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-1
79.9%
Jouvensly Bazil run for a loss of 1 yard to the BCU 8Similar
Q1 3:19
2ND & 11
OWN 8
0
80.6%
Micah Bowens pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:14
3RD & 11
OWN 8
+2
80.7%
Jouvensly Bazil run for 2 yds to the BCU 10Similar
Q1 2:34
4TH & 9
OWN 10
0
80.2%
Anthony Frederique punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Sean Atkins at the BCU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 7TD
8 plays · 48 yds · 2:5384% → 89%
Q1 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
83.5%
Ta'Ron Keith run for 2 yds to the BCU 46Similar
Q1 2:01
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+6
83.4%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 6 yds to the BCU 40Similar
Q1 1:41
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+5
83.2%
Ta'Ron Keith run for 5 yds to the BCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
84.0%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Josh Hardeman for 9 yds to the BCU 26Similar
Q1 0:33
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+18
83.9%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 18 yds to the BCU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
84.0%
Byrum Brown run for 5 yds to the BCU 3Similar
Q2 14:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
83.6%
Ta'Ron Keith run for 2 yds to the BCU 1Similar
Q2 14:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
88.5%
Ta'Ron Keith run for 1 yd for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:1413% → 12%
Q2 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
87.2%
Micah Bowens run for a loss of 1 yard to the BCU 26Similar
Q2 14:01
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+2
87.7%
Jouvensly Bazil run for 2 yds to the BCU 28Similar
Q2 13:18
3RD & 9
OWN 28
0
88.1%
Micah Bowens pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:14
4TH & 9
OWN 28
+12
88.1%
Anthony Frederique punt for 41 yds , Sean Atkins returns for 12 yds to the USF 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0191% → 90%
Q2 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
90.6%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:57
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+3
90.5%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 3 yds to the USF 46Similar
Q2 12:40
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+1
90.4%
Byrum Brown run for 1 yd to the USF 47Similar
Q2 12:03
4TH & 6
OWN 47
0
89.8%
Andrew Stokes punt for 48 yds, downed at the BCU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · -3 yds · 2:1411% → 10%
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
89.2%
Jouvensly Bazil run for 2 yds to the BCU 7Similar
Q2 11:12
2ND & 8
OWN 7
-3
89.7%
Bethune-Cookman Penalty, False Start (Yards) to the BCU 4Similar
Q2 10:43
2ND & 11
OWN 4
0
90.0%
Micah Bowens pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:39
3RD & 11
OWN 4
-2
90.1%
Bethune-Cookman Penalty, Delay Of Game (Micah Bowens) to the BCU 2Similar
Q2 10:36
3RD & 13
OWN 2
+1
90.1%
Micah Bowens run for 1 yd to the BCU 3Similar
Q2 9:41
4TH & 12
OWN 3
-1
90.4%
Bethune-Cookman Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Terrance Alexander) to the BCU 2Similar
Q2 9:34
4TH & 13
OWN 2
0
90.4%
Anthony Frederique punt for 54 yds , Sean Atkins returns for no gain to the BCU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 11DOWNS
8 plays · 45 yds · 2:0093% → 93%
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+21
92.9%
Kelley Joiner run for 21 yds to the BCU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
93.1%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:06
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+13
93.2%
Kelley Joiner run for 13 yds to the BCU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+10
93.2%
Kelley Joiner run for 10 yds to the BCU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
92.9%
Kelley Joiner run for a loss of 3 yards to the BCU 5Similar
Q2 8:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
92.7%
Kelley Joiner run for no gain to the BCU 5Similar
Q2 7:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
92.5%
Kelley Joiner run for 3 yds to the BCU 2Similar
Q2 7:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
92.7%
Kelley Joiner run for 1 yd to the BCU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:519% → 9%
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
90.8%
Micah Bowens run for no gain to the BCU 1Similar
Q2 6:36
2ND & 10
OWN 1
0
91.3%
Micah Bowens pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:32
3RD & 10
OWN 1
0
91.3%
Micah Bowens pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:27
4TH & 10
OWN 1
+11
91.4%
Anthony Frederique punt for 50 yds , Sean Atkins returns for 11 yds to the BCU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 13TD
7 plays · 40 yds · 1:3694% → 97%
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
94.0%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 3 yds to the BCU 37Similar
Q2 5:58
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+12
94.1%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen for 12 yds to the BCU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+12
94.3%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 12 yds to the BCU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
94.3%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 2 yds to the BCU 11Similar
Q2 5:06
2ND & 8
OPP 11
0
94.2%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:04
3RD & 8
OPP 11
+10
94.0%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Nay'Quan Wright for 10 yds to the BCU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.9%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 1 yd for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 14FG
15 plays · 44 yds · 4:153% → 14%
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
97.5%
Cam'Ron Ransom run for 10 yds to the BCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
97.4%
Cam'Ron Ransom pass complete to Courtney Reese for 6 yds to the BCU 41Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+7
98.0%
Cam'Ron Ransom pass complete to Thomas Nance for 7 yds to the BCU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
98.5%
Cam'Ron Ransom run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 2:56
2ND & 8
50
0
97.6%
Cam'Ron Ransom pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:50
3RD & 8
50
+10
97.9%
Cam'Ron Ransom pass complete to Jostein Clarke for 10 yds to the USF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
97.8%
Jouvensly Bazil run for no gain to the USF 40Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
98.1%
Cam'Ron Ransom pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:52
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+15
98.3%
(01:52) RANSOM, Cam pass deep to the right incomplete intended for HUGGINS, Maleek thrown to the USF2; QB hurried by PETTWAY, Jamie, clock 01:48. PENALTY USF Pass Interference on WARD, Tavin enforced 15 yards to the USF25 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
98.0%
Cam'Ron Ransom run for a loss of 1 yard to the USF 26Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 11
OPP 26
0
98.1%
Cam'Ron Ransom pass complete to Cam'Ron Ransom for no gain to the USF 26Similar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 11
OPP 26
-5
98.3%
Cam'Ron Ransom sacked by Rico Watson III and Michael Williams II for a loss of 5 yards to the USF 31Similar
Q2 0:22
4TH & 16
OPP 31
+48
86.4%
Cade Hechter 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 15FG
5 plays · 29 yds · 0:1896% → 98%
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
95.8%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Joshua Porter for 6 yds to the USF 42Similar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+23
96.1%
Byrum Brown run for 23 yds to the BCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+53
98.4%
John Cannon 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 2:126% → 1%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
94.5%
Cam'Ron Ransom run for 1 yd to the BCU 26Similar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-3
97.8%
Cam'Ron Ransom pass complete to Jouvensly Bazil for a loss of 3 yards to the BCU 23Similar
Q3 13:52
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-5
98.6%
Bethune-Cookman Penalty, Delay Of Game (Cam'Ron Ransom) to the BCU 18Similar
Q3 13:13
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+5
98.8%
Cam'Ron Ransom pass complete to Thomas Nance for 5 yds to the BCU 23Similar
Q3 12:47
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
98.8%
Anthony Frederique punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Sean Atkins at the USF 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 17FG
8 plays · 40 yds · 2:4199% → 99%
Q3 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
98.7%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:36
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+2
98.7%
Ta'Ron Keith run for 2 yds to the USF 40Similar
Q3 12:06
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+15
98.9%
Bethune-Cookman Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Johnny Harris III) to the BCU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+27
98.9%
Ta'Ron Keith run for 27 yds to the BCU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-7
98.9%
Byrum Brown sacked by Dearis Thomas for a loss of 7 yards to the BCU 25Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 17
OPP 25
0
98.9%
Ta'Ron Keith run for no gain to the BCU 25Similar
Q3 10:43
3RD & 17
OPP 25
+3
99.0%
Byrum Brown run for 3 yds to the BCU 22Similar
Q3 10:00
4TH & 14
OPP 22
+40
99.2%
John Cannon 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 3:291% → 1%
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.2%
Darnell Deas run for 5 yds to the BCU 30Similar
Q3 9:33
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
99.2%
Cam'Ron Ransom pass complete to Marcus Velez for 7 yds to the BCU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-10
99.2%
(08:54) QB Keeper RANSOM, Cam rush to the left for a loss of 2 yards to the BCU35 (STOKES, Jaelen;HARRIS, Mac), clock 08:51. PENALTY BCU Holding on VAUGHN, Cameron enforced 10 yards from the BCU37 to the BCU27 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:36
1ST & 20
OWN 27
+5
99.3%
Cam'Ron Ransom pass complete to Jouvensly Bazil for 5 yds to the BCU 32Similar
Q3 7:54
2ND & 15
OWN 32
+17
99.3%
Cam'Ron Ransom pass complete to Lorenzo Jenkins for 17 yds to the BCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
99.3%
Cam'Ron Ransom pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:11
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
99.4%
Courtney Reese run for no gain to the BCU 49Similar
Q3 6:36
3RD & 10
OWN 49
0
99.4%
Cam'Ron Ransom pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:28
4TH & 10
OWN 49
0
99.3%
Anthony Frederique punt for 35 yds, downed at the USF 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 19TD
5 plays · 69 yds · 1:19100% → 100%
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+18
99.6%
Kelley Joiner run for 18 yds to the USF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
99.6%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:57
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+3
99.6%
Kelley Joiner run for 3 yds to the BCU 48Similar
Q3 5:22
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+44
99.6%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen for 44 yds to the BCU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.6%
Kelley Joiner run for 4 yds for a TD (Nico Gramatica KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 20INT
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:210% → 0%
Q3 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
99.7%
Darnell Deas run for 6 yds to the BCU 16Similar
Q3 4:17
2ND & 4
OWN 16
-2
99.8%
Cam'Ron Ransom run for a loss of 2 yards to the BCU 14Similar
Q3 3:40
3RD & 6
OWN 14
+12
99.8%
Cam'Ron Ransom run for 12 yds to the BCU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
99.8%
Courtney Reese run for 2 yds to the BCU 28Similar
Q3 2:31
2ND & 8
OWN 28
-22
99.8%
Cam'Ron Ransom pass intercepted D'Marco Augustin return for 22 yds to the BCU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 21TD
1 play · 15 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
99.8%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 15 yds for a TD (Ty Ippolito KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 22PUNT
10 plays · 39 yds · 3:380% → 0%
Q3 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.9%
Jouvensly Bazil run for 2 yds to the BCU 27Similar
Q3 1:36
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
99.9%
Cam'Ron Ransom pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:31
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+9
99.9%
Cam'Ron Ransom pass complete to Lorenzo Jenkins for 9 yds to the BCU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
99.9%
Cam'Ron Ransom pass complete to Marcus Velez for 5 yds to the BCU 41Similar
Q3 0:31
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+5
99.9%
Courtney Reese run for 5 yds to the BCU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+17
99.9%
Cam'Ron Ransom pass complete to Lorenzo Jenkins for 17 yds to the USF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:59
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
99.9%
Courtney Reese run for 6 yds to the USF 31Similar
Q4 14:22
2ND & 4
OPP 31
-5
99.9%
Cam'Ron Ransom run for a loss of 5 yards to the USF 36 Cam'Ron Ransom fumbled, recovered by BCU Cam'Ron Ransom C. Ransom return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q4 13:41
3RD & 9
OPP 36
0
99.9%
Cam'Ron Ransom pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:38
4TH & 9
OPP 36
0
99.9%
Anthony Frederique punt for 36 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:13100% → 100%
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.8%
Yasias Young run for no gain to the USF 20Similar
Q4 13:18
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
99.8%
Bryce Archie pass complete to JeyQuan Smith for 5 yds to the USF 25Similar
Q4 12:59
3RD & 5
OWN 25
-5
99.9%
Bryce Archie sacked by Jeffson Lafontant for a loss of 5 yards to the USF 20Similar
Q4 12:20
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
99.9%
Pierse Stainton punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Maleek Huggins at the BCU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 3:490% → 0%
Q4 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
99.9%
Terry Lindsey run for 8 yds to the BCU 47Similar
Q4 11:54
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+1
99.9%
Cross Patton run for 1 yd to the BCU 48Similar
Q4 11:23
3RD & 1
OWN 48
0
99.9%
Cross Patton run for no gain to the BCU 48Similar
Q4 10:45
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+1
99.9%
Luke Sprague run for 1 yd to the BCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
99.9%
Cross Patton run for no gain to the BCU 49Similar
Q4 9:36
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-1
100.0%
Luke Sprague pass complete to Cross Patton for a loss of 1 yard to the BCU 48Similar
Q4 9:04
3RD & 11
OWN 48
-2
100.0%
Cross Patton run for a loss of 2 yards to the BCU 46Similar
Q4 8:27
4TH & 13
OWN 46
+26
100.0%
Anthony Frederique punt for 40 yds , Ta'Ron Keith returns for 26 yds to the USF 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:19100% → 100%
Q4 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
99.9%
Bryce Archie pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:08
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+2
99.9%
Alvon Isaac run for 2 yds to the USF 42Similar
Q4 7:36
3RD & 8
OWN 42
-6
99.9%
Bryce Archie sacked by Ejike Brown and Jeremy Greaves Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the USF 36Similar
Q4 6:52
4TH & 14
OWN 36
0
99.9%
Pierse Stainton punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Maleek Huggins at the BCU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 26DOWNS
11 plays · 61 yds · 4:180% → 0%
Q4 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+15
100.0%
South Florida Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the BCU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-3
100.0%
Jaiden Bivens run for a loss of 3 yards to the BCU 29Similar
Q4 6:01
2ND & 13
OWN 29
0
100.0%
Luke Sprague pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:52
3RD & 13
OWN 29
+15
100.0%
South Florida Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Dinellson Exume) to the BCU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
100.0%
Jaiden Bivens run for 4 yds to the BCU 48Similar
Q4 5:02
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+7
100.0%
Luke Sprague pass complete to Lorenzo Jenkins for 7 yds to the USF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+19
100.0%
Luke Sprague pass complete to Maleek Huggins for 19 yds to the USF 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
100.0%
Luke Sprague pass complete to Ian Langi for 9 yds to the USF 17Similar
Q4 3:26
2ND & 1
OPP 17
-8
100.0%
Luke Sprague sacked by Ira Singleton for a loss of 8 yards to the USF 25Similar
Q4 2:45
3RD & 9
OPP 25
+3
100.0%
Luke Sprague pass complete to Lorenzo Jenkins for 3 yds to the USF 22Similar
Q4 2:26
4TH & 6
OPP 22
0
100.0%
Luke Sprague pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 27END OF GAME
8 plays · 30 yds · 2:15100% → 100%
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
100.0%
Yasias Young run for 9 yds to the USF 31Similar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+9
100.0%
Yasias Young run for 9 yds to the USF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
100.0%
Yasias Young run for 3 yds to the USF 43Similar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+3
100.0%
Yasias Young run for 3 yds to the USF 46Similar
Q4 0:52
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+3
100.0%
Yasias Young run for 3 yds to the USF 49Similar
Q4 0:07
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+3
100.0%
Yasias Young run for 3 yds to the BCU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q2 0:22
Cade Hechter 48 yd FG GOOD
-11.9
TD · Q2 14:36
Ta'Ron Keith run for 1 yd for a TD (John Cannon KICK)
+5
TD · Q1 3:59
Kelley Joiner run for 2 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)
+3.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com