2024 · Week 5 · Sep 28, 2024 · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · WAKE
modelWAKE aheadUL aheadconfidence bandkey playWAKE scoreUL score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:31 · Matthew Dennis 39 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 6:49: Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Lance LeGendre for 48 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK) — UL win probability +18.1 pts (now 67%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:39: Tate Carney run for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Dennis KICK) — WAKE win probability +17.2 pts (now 62%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
- TD · Q4 8:07: Bill Davis run for 2 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK) — UL win probability +27.4 pts (now 82%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
- TD · Q4 1:55: Tate Carney run for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Dennis KICK) — WAKE win probability +39.1 pts (now 67%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
- FG · Q4 0:52: Kenneth Almendares 31 yd FG GOOD — UL win probability +31.0 pts (now 90%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WAKE made the numbers' call on 4 of 5UL made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q1 13:50WAKE 4th & 6 at WAKE 29, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 59.0% before the snapGo for it59.0%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call59.1%average punt
- Q1 7:56WAKE 4th & 4 at UL 34, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call56.9%48% to convertField goal56.6%−0.347% to makePunt56.4%−0.4average punt
- Q1 2:31WAKE 4th & 4 at UL 21, down 7Close callKicked a field goal · 54.6% before the snapGo for it54.5%47% to convertField goalTheir call54.3%−0.274% to makePunt50.9%−3.7average punt
- Q2 14:08WAKE 4th & 5 at WAKE 30, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.0% before the snapGo for it49.1%−0.241% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call49.3%average punt
- Q2 9:56UL 4th & 5 at WAKE 35, up 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call54.0%42% to convertField goal53.5%−0.545% to makePunt53.0%−1.0average punt
- Q3 10:22UL 4th & 5 at WAKE 33, up 4Close callKicked a field goal · 52.0% before the snapGo for it51.6%42% to convertField goalTheir call50.8%−0.849% to makePunt49.5%−2.2average punt
- Q3 8:19WAKE 4th & 1 at WAKE 40, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call41.9%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt38.3%−3.6average punt
- Q4 10:27UL 4th & 17 at WAKE 48, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 44.9% before the snapGo for it39.7%−6.914% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call46.6%average punt
- Q4 0:52UL 4th & 4 at WAKE 13, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.5% before the snapGo for it50.0%−1.646% to convertField goalTheir call51.6%85% to makePunt13.5%−38.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WAKE made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UL made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 7:56UL Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call42.6%97% to makeGo for two42.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:56UL Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call49.6%97% to makeGo for two49.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:28WAKE Touchdown, down 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call51.1%97% to makeGo for two50.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:18UL Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call61.8%97% to makeGo for two61.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:15WAKE Touchdown, down 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call47.8%97% to makeGo for two47.7%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 8:19WAKE Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call55.0%97% to makeGo for two54.8%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 6:49UL Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call59.7%97% to makeGo for two59.5%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 0:39WAKE Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call54.5%97% to makeGo for two54.3%−0.345% to convert
- Q4 8:07UL Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call71.3%97% to makeGo for two70.9%−0.545% to convert
- Q4 1:55WAKE Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call49.1%97% to makeGo for two46.7%−2.445% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWAKEDrive 1PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1057% → 57%
ULDrive 2TD11 plays · 70 yds · 5:5443% → 46%
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
57.4%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Lance LeGendre for 3 yds to the UL 33Similar
Q1 13:50
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+7
57.4%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Harvey Broussard for 7 yds to the UL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
57.3%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Harvey Broussard for 8 yds to the UL 48Similar
Q1 13:50
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+6
57.3%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Robert Williams for 6 yds to the UL 49Similar
Q1 13:50
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+8
57.3%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Robert Williams for 8 yds to the WAKE 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+18
57.3%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Caden Jensen for 18 yds to the WAKE 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
57.3%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Jacob Bernard for 5 yds to the WAKE 2Similar
Q1 7:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
54.2%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Tavion Smith for 2 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 3FG13 plays · 54 yds · 5:2555% → 56%
Q1 7:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
54.9%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Demond Claiborne for 12 yds to the WAKE 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:56
4TH & 4
OPP 34
+7
55.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Cameron Hite for 7 yds to the UL 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
56.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Horatio Fields for 5 yds to the UL 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 4TD5 plays · 75 yds · 1:3545% → 51%
Q1 2:31
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+13
53.9%
WOOLDRIDGE, Ben pass to the right incomplete intended for BROUSSARD, Harvey thrown to the WAKEF0. PENALTY WAKEF Pass Interference on BLUE, Capone enforced 13 yards to the WAKEF2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 5PUNT6 plays · 5 yds · 1:4850% → 48%
Q1 0:00
2ND & 13
OWN 22
-2
48.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Demond Claiborne for a loss of 2 yards to the WAKE 20Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+10
47.9%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Deuce Alexander for 10 yds to the WAKE 30Similar
Q2 14:08
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+15
47.5%
Ivan Mora punt for 53 yds , Jacob Bernard returns for 15 yds to the UL 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 6DOWNS7 plays · 33 yds · 4:1252% → 56%
WAKEDrive 7TD12 plays · 65 yds · 5:2845% → 56%
Q2 9:56
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+7
45.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Taylor Morin for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
50
+15
46.5%
BACHMEIER, Hank pass up the middle incomplete intended for MORIN, Taylor thrown to the LOUISI36. PENALTY LOUISI Targeting on LEWIS, Tyrone enforced 15 yards from the LOUISI50 to the LOUISI35 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
47.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Cameron Hite for a loss of 1 yard to the UL 36Similar
Q2 9:56
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+13
47.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Taylor Morin for 13 yds to the UL 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:56
2ND & 12
OPP 20
+9
47.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Donavon Greene for 9 yds to the UL 11Similar
Q2 9:56
3RD & 3
OPP 11
+5
46.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Walker Merrill for 5 yds to the UL 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 8TD10 plays · 75 yds · 3:1050% → 67%
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
50.4%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Harvey Broussard for 21 yds to the UL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
48.3%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Jaydon Johnson for 5 yds to the WAKE 49Similar
Q2 4:28
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+11
48.3%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Lance LeGendre for 11 yds to the WAKE 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
33.5%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Lance LeGendre for 20 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 9TD7 plays · 80 yds · 0:5737% → 52%
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
36.5%
Louisiana Penalty, Personal Foul (K.C. Ossai) to the WAKE 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+31
37.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Horatio Fields for 31 yds to the UL 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+15
40.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Taylor Morin for 15 yds to the UL 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+8
41.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Tate Carney for 8 yds to the UL 3Similar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 2
OPP 3
+3
51.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Deuce Alexander for 3 yds for a TD (Matthew Dennis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 10END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
48.6%
[SG] Kneel down by LOUISI at LOUISI24 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 11FG11 plays · 42 yds · 4:3851% → 62%
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+9
48.0%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Jaydon Johnson for 9 yds to the UL 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 12TD5 plays · 82 yds · 1:5940% → 58%
ULDrive 13TD4 plays · 75 yds · 1:3045% → 67%
WAKEDrive 14TD13 plays · 75 yds · 6:1039% → 62%
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
38.8%
Wake Forest Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Horatio Fields) to the WAKE 25Similar
Q3 6:49
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+10
38.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Harry Lodge for 10 yds to the WAKE 34Similar
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
40.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Horatio Fields for 9 yds to the WAKE 47Similar
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+21
43.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Deuce Alexander for 21 yds to the UL 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:49
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+7
44.9%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Horatio Fields for 7 yds to the UL 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 15PUNT11 plays · 27 yds · 4:3346% → 45%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
53.7%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Harvey Broussard for 11 yds to the UL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+8
49.0%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Trayv'on Culbert for 8 yds to the WAKE 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 38
-10
49.6%
WOOLDRIDGE, Ben scrambles up the middle for a gain of 4 yards to the WAKEF34, End of Play. PENALTY LOUISI Holding on JACKSON, George enforced 10 yards from the WAKEF38 to the WAKEF48 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:27
4TH & 17
OPP 48
0
54.8%
Nathan Torney punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Taylor Morin at the WAKE 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 16INT3 plays · 21 yds · 0:4857% → 58%
ULDrive 17TD4 plays · 38 yds · 1:3252% → 82%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 18TD16 plays · 80 yds · 6:0627% → 67%
Q4 8:01
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+12
27.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Walker Merrill for 12 yds to the WAKE 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:01
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+5
30.9%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Walker Merrill for 5 yds to the WAKE 48Similar
Q4 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+16
34.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Horatio Fields for 16 yds to the UL 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
28.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Walker Merrill for 1 yd to the UL 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 19FG9 plays · 30 yds · 0:5558% → 90%
Q4 1:47
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+24
43.0%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Lance LeGendre for 24 yds to the WAKE 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 20MISSED FG9 plays · 51 yds · 0:5222% → 21%
Q4 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
22.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Taylor Morin for 14 yds to the WAKE 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:52
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+15
26.4%
BACHMEIER, Hank pass deep to the right incomplete intended for ALEXANDER, Deuce thrown to the LOUISI40; QB hurried by BAYLIS, Antoine. PENALTY LOUISI Roughing the Passer on BAYLIS, Antoine enforced 15 yards from the WAKEF44 to the LOUISI41 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 0:52
2ND & 2
OPP 33
+9
38.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Taylor Morin for 9 yds to the UL 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:55
Tate Carney run for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Dennis KICK)
+39.1
FG · Q4 0:52
Kenneth Almendares 31 yd FG GOOD
-31
TD · Q4 8:07
Bill Davis run for 2 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)
-27.4