Try the model
UVA

Virginia 17 at Virginia Tech 37

VT
2024 · Week 14 · Nov 30, 2024 · Lane Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · VT
modelVT aheadUVA aheadconfidence bandkey playVT scoreUVA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:19 · (00:19) [NH] Kneel down by LOCKLEAR, Ben at HOOS17 (team loss of 1), clock 00:14.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:50: William Watson III pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 66 yds for a TD (John Love KICK) — VT win probability +7.1 pts (now 81%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:00: John Love 31 yd FG GOOD — VT win probability +3.4 pts (now 88%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:05: William Watson III run for 5 yds for a TD (John Love KICK) — VT win probability +4.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:23: Tony Muskett run for 2 yds for a TD (Tony Muskett pass to Tyler Neville for Two-Point Conversion) — UVA win probability +10.2 pts (now 15%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:12: Tony Muskett run for 5 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — UVA win probability +7.3 pts (now 13%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VT made the numbers' call on 4 of 6UVA made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 8:15UVA 4th & 16 at UVA 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.0%−0.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:16VT 4th & 12 at UVA 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.1%−0.6
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.7%
    62% to make
    Punt
    64.3%−2.3
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:48UVA 4th & 11 at UVA 34, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.4%−1.0
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:36VT 4th & 1 at VT 28, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.1%−1.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:39UVA 4th & 7 at UVA 40, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.5%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:40VT 4th & 1 at VT 19, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.1%−1.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:46UVA 4th & 2 at VT 19, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.9%−1.0
    77% to make
    Punt
    21.0%−5.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:21UVA 4th & 1 at UVA 45, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.4%−2.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:08VT 4th & 11 at UVA 11, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.9%−1.0
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.9%
    87% to make
    Punt
    87.0%−4.8
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:49VT 4th & 21 at VT 41, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.2%−3.5
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.7%
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:50UVA 4th & 11 at UVA 18, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.3%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.7%
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:19UVA 4th & 10 at UVA 34, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:55VT 4th & 13 at VT 23, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:50UVA 4th & 13 at UVA 21, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UVA made the numbers' call on 0 of 2
  1. Q1 9:06VT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:50VT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:05VT Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:23UVA Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    7.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    7.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:12UVA Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    8.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    8.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:12VT Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
VTDrive 1TD
11 plays · 90 yds · 5:4866% → 68%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
66.2%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 3 yds to the VT 13Similar
Q1 14:16
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+6
66.1%
William Watson III run for 6 yds to the VT 19Similar
Q1 13:47
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+1
66.0%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 1 yd to the VT 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
66.1%
William Watson III pass complete to Stephen Gosnell for 9 yds to the VT 29Similar
Q1 12:47
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+4
66.1%
William Watson III pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 4 yds to the VT 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
66.0%
William Watson III run for 8 yds to the VT 41Similar
Q1 11:42
2ND & 2
OWN 41
0
66.2%
Jaylin Lane run for no gain to the VT 41Similar
Q1 11:03
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+3
66.1%
Jaylin Lane run for 3 yds to the VT 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+42
66.2%
William Watson III pass complete to Da'Quan Felton for 42 yds to the UVA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
66.4%
William Watson III pass complete to Da'Quan Felton for 8 yds to the UVA 6Similar
Q1 9:06
2ND & 2
OPP 6
+6
68.4%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 6 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:5032% → 32%
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
67.6%
Tony Muskett sacked by Antwaun Powell-Ryland for a loss of 6 yards to the UVA 19Similar
Q1 8:26
2ND & 16
OWN 19
0
67.8%
Tony Muskett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:22
3RD & 16
OWN 19
0
68.1%
Tony Muskett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:15
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
68.3%
Daniel Sparks punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Lane at the VT 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 3FG
13 plays · 44 yds · 6:4968% → 70%
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
68.0%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 5 yds to the VT 34Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+5
68.3%
William Watson III run for 5 yds to the VT 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
68.6%
Bhayshul Tuten run for no gain to the VT 39Similar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+10
68.7%
William Watson III pass complete to Ayden Greene for 10 yds to the VT 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
69.2%
Ayden Greene run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line Ayden Greene fumbled, recovered by VT Ayden Greene , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:03
2ND & 9
50
+8
69.4%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 8 yds to the UVA 42Similar
Q1 4:19
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+2
69.5%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 2 yds to the UVA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
69.9%
William Watson III run for 15 yds to the UVA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
70.2%
Tyler Mason run for no gain to the UVA 25Similar
Q1 2:29
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-10
70.1%
(02:29) TUTEN, Bhayshul rush to the left for a loss of 1 yard to the HOOS26 (SANKER, Jonas), clock 02:25. PENALTY HOKIES Holding on GOSNELL, Benji enforced 10 yards from the HOOS25 to the HOOS35 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 2:09
2ND & 20
OPP 35
0
69.7%
William Watson III pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:57
3RD & 20
OPP 35
+8
69.3%
Jeremiah Coney run for 8 yds to the UVA 27Similar
Q1 1:16
4TH & 12
OPP 27
+44
69.7%
John Love 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 3:1730% → 28%
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+2
70.2%
Noah Vaughn run for 2 yds to the UVA 9Similar
Q1 0:40
2ND & 8
OWN 9
-2
70.4%
Noah Vaughn run for a loss of 2 yards to the UVA 7Similar
Q2 14:58
3RD & 10
OWN 7
+13
71.2%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Noah Vaughn for 13 yds to the UVA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
70.5%
Tony Muskett run for 15 yds to the UVA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
70.7%
Chris Tyree run for a loss of 1 yard to the UVA 34Similar
Q2 13:01
2ND & 11
OWN 34
0
71.1%
Tony Muskett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:55
3RD & 11
OWN 34
0
71.7%
Tony Muskett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:48
4TH & 11
OWN 34
0
72.0%
Daniel Sparks punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Lane at the VT 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:0171% → 70%
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
71.1%
William Watson III pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:33
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
71.0%
William Watson III pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:29
3RD & 10
OWN 19
+9
70.4%
William Watson III run for 9 yds to the VT 28Similar
Q2 11:36
4TH & 1
OWN 28
0
70.4%
Peter Moore punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Ethan Davies at the UVA 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 3:5129% → 26%
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
71.2%
Noah Vaughn run for 3 yds to the UVA 26Similar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+6
71.7%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Kameron Courtney for 6 yds to the UVA 32Similar
Q2 10:05
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+5
71.8%
Noah Vaughn run for 5 yds to the UVA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
72.0%
Chris Tyree run for 3 yds to the UVA 40Similar
Q2 8:38
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
71.8%
Chris Tyree run for no gain to the UVA 40Similar
Q2 7:50
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
72.8%
Tony Muskett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:39
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
73.9%
Daniel Sparks punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Lane at the VT 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5773% → 73%
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
73.1%
William Watson III pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 7 yds to the VT 17Similar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 3
OWN 17
+1
73.4%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 1 yd to the VT 18Similar
Q2 6:24
3RD & 2
OWN 18
+1
72.8%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 1 yd to the VT 19Similar
Q2 5:40
4TH & 1
OWN 19
0
72.6%
Peter Moore punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Ethan Davies at the UVA 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 8FG
6 plays · 34 yds · 2:4828% → 30%
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
72.5%
Tony Muskett run for 2 yds to the UVA 49Similar
Q2 4:57
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+24
72.4%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Suderian Harrison for 24 yds to the VT 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
71.2%
Tony Muskett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:16
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+6
71.6%
Tony Muskett run for 6 yds to the VT 21Similar
Q2 3:31
3RD & 4
OPP 21
+2
72.8%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Tyler Neville for 2 yds to the VT 19Similar
Q2 2:46
4TH & 2
OPP 19
+37
70.5%
Will Bettridge 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 9TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:5573% → 81%
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
73.0%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 4 yds to the VT 29Similar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
73.3%
(02:06) TUTEN, Bhayshul rush to the left for a gain of 1 yard to the HOKIES30 (JACKSON, Jermarian;CARTER, Jahmeer), clock 02:00. PENALTY HOOS Offsides on BENNETT JR., Chico enforced 5 yards from the HOKIES29 to the HOKIES34 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+66
80.6%
William Watson III pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 66 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 10INT
10 plays · 27 yds · 0:4420% → 19%
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
79.6%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Malachi Fields for 4 yds to the UVA 29Similar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
81.1%
Tony Muskett run for 3 yds to the UVA 32Similar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+3
81.5%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Noah Vaughn for 3 yds to the UVA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
81.5%
Tony Muskett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+2
81.7%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Suderian Harrison for 2 yds to the UVA 37Similar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+15
83.0%
(01:14) MUSKETT, Tony pass deep to the left incomplete intended for TWITTY, Dakota thrown to the HOKIES29, clock 01:06. PENALTY HOKIES Pass Interference on PHILLIPS III, Mose enforced 15 yards to the HOKIES48 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-27
81.1%
Tony Muskett pass intercepted Jaylen Jones return for 27 yds to the UVA 46 Jaylen Jones fumbled, recovered by UVASimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 11FG
6 plays · 32 yds · 0:5085% → 88%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
84.6%
William Watson III pass complete to Benji Gosnell for 9 yds to the UVA 37Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 1
OPP 37
0
84.7%
William Watson III pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:39
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+2
84.4%
William Watson III run for 2 yds to the UVA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
85.0%
Virginia Tech Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UVA 40Similar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 15
OPP 40
+15
84.7%
Virginia Penalty, Illegal use of the hands on KOUDELKA, Billy enforced (Billy Koudelka) to the UVA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+31
88.1%
John Love 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 12DOWNS
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:3815% → 13%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
85.4%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Trell Harris for 9 yds to the UVA 34Similar
Q3 14:34
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
84.8%
Noah Vaughn run for 2 yds to the UVA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
85.7%
Chris Tyree run for 7 yds to the UVA 43Similar
Q3 13:26
2ND & 3
OWN 43
0
85.2%
Chris Tyree run for no gain to the UVA 43Similar
Q3 13:03
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+2
86.1%
Tony Muskett run for 2 yds to the UVA 45Similar
Q3 12:21
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
86.9%
Chris Tyree run for no gain to the UVA 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 13TD
5 plays · 45 yds · 2:1189% → 95%
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+14
88.7%
William Watson III pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 14 yds to the UVA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
88.9%
William Watson III pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:37
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+12
88.9%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 12 yds to the UVA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+14
90.7%
Jaylin Lane run for 14 yds to the UVA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
95.1%
William Watson III run for 5 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 14TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:415% → 15%
Q3 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
95.0%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Tyler Neville for 5 yds to the UVA 30Similar
Q3 9:23
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
95.0%
Noah Vaughn run for 6 yds to the UVA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+16
95.1%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Malachi Fields for 16 yds to the VT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
95.4%
Tony Muskett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
95.3%
Tony Muskett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:54
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+10
95.4%
Tony Muskett run for 10 yds to the VT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
95.5%
Tony Muskett sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the VT 23 Tony Muskett fumbled, recovered by UVA Tyler Neville , return for 0 yards for a 1ST down Virginia Tech Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (16 Yards) to the VT 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
95.2%
Chris Tyree run for 6 yds to the VT 17Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+15
95.5%
Tony Muskett run for 15 yds to the VT 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
85.3%
Tony Muskett run for 2 yds for a TD (Tony Muskett pass to Tyler Neville for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 15FG
7 plays · 64 yds · 2:1492% → 95%
Q3 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
91.7%
William Watson III pass complete to Ali Jennings for 11 yds to the VT 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+40
92.4%
William Watson III pass complete to Ali Jennings for 40 yds to the UVA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+15
92.8%
William Watson III pass complete to Ayden Greene for 15 yds to the UVA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-2
92.9%
Bhayshul Tuten run for a loss of 2 yards to the UVA 11Similar
Q3 3:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
93.1%
William Watson III pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
92.9%
William Watson III pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+28
95.3%
John Love 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 16TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:547% → 13%
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
93.4%
Tony Muskett run for 8 yds to the UVA 33Similar
Q3 2:36
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
93.2%
Chris Tyree run for 3 yds to the UVA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+19
93.4%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Kameron Courtney for 19 yds to the VT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
93.8%
Tony Muskett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+11
93.8%
Tony Muskett run for 11 yds to the VT 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+18
93.8%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Suderian Harrison for 18 yds to the VT 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:59
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
93.6%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Suderian Harrison for 8 yds to the VT 8Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 2
OPP 8
0
93.7%
Tony Muskett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:07
3RD & 2
OPP 8
+3
94.5%
Tony Muskett run for 3 yds to the VT 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
94.2%
Tony Muskett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
86.9%
Tony Muskett run for 5 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 0 yds · 3:2194% → 93%
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
93.5%
Bhayshul Tuten run for no gain to the VT 41Similar
Q4 12:35
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+3
93.5%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 3 yds to the VT 44Similar
Q4 11:55
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+8
93.5%
William Watson III run for 8 yds to the UVA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-7
93.9%
William Watson III sacked by Kam Butler and Michael Diatta for a loss of 7 yards to the VT 45Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 17
OWN 45
-15
93.7%
Virginia Tech Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Stephen Gosnell) to the VT 33Similar
Q4 10:31
3RD & 29
OWN 33
+8
93.4%
William Watson III pass complete to Stephen Gosnell for 8 yds to the VT 41Similar
Q4 9:49
4TH & 21
OWN 41
0
93.1%
Peter Moore punt for 40 yds , Ethan Davies returns for no gain to the UVA 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:518% → 7%
Q4 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
92.1%
Tony Muskett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:35
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+4
92.2%
Tony Muskett run for 4 yds to the UVA 23Similar
Q4 8:57
3RD & 6
OWN 23
0
92.5%
Tony Muskett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:53
4TH & 6
OWN 23
-5
92.6%
Virginia Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the UVA 18Similar
Q4 8:50
4TH & 11
OWN 18
0
92.7%
Daniel Sparks punt for 59 yds, downed at the VT 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 19TD
4 plays · 77 yds · 2:2395% → 99%
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+14
94.7%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 14 yds to the VT 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
95.1%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 5 yds to the VT 42Similar
Q4 7:04
2ND & 5
OWN 42
0
95.6%
Jeremiah Coney run for no gain to the VT 42Similar
Q4 6:12
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+58
99.0%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 58 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 20INT
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:071% → 1%
Q4 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
99.3%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Suderian Harrison for 2 yds to the UVA 25Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+9
99.3%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Chris Tyree for 9 yds to the UVA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
99.3%
Tony Muskett sacked by Antwaun Powell-Ryland for a loss of 5 yards to the UVA 29Similar
Q4 4:58
2ND & 15
OWN 29
+10
99.4%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Dakota Twitty for 10 yds to the UVA 39Similar
Q4 4:32
3RD & 5
OWN 39
-5
99.3%
Virginia Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Tony Muskett) to the UVA 34Similar
Q4 4:19
4TH & 10
OWN 34
+11
99.4%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Trell Harris for 11 yds to the UVA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
99.4%
Tony Muskett pass intercepted Mansoor Delane return for no gain to the VT 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:0399% → 99%
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
99.2%
Tyler Mason run for no gain to the VT 26Similar
Q4 3:12
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+7
99.3%
William Watson III run for 7 yds to the VT 33Similar
Q4 2:57
3RD & 3
OWN 33
-10
99.4%
William Watson III sacked by Kam Robinson for a loss of 10 yards to the VT 23Similar
Q4 2:55
4TH & 13
OWN 23
0
99.4%
Peter Moore punt for 43 yds, downed at the UVA 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 22DOWNS
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:561% → 1%
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
99.5%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Dakota Twitty for 9 yds to the UVA 33Similar
Q4 2:17
2ND & 1
OWN 33
-7
99.5%
Virginia Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (-7 Yards) to the UVA 13Similar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 21
OWN 13
+8
99.6%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Dakota Twitty for 8 yds to the UVA 21Similar
Q4 1:50
4TH & 13
OWN 21
0
99.5%
Tony Muskett pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 23END OF GAME
3 plays · 4 yds · 1:26100% → 100%
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
99.7%
Tyler Mason run for 6 yds to the UVA 15Similar
Q4 1:01
2ND & 4
OPP 15
-1
99.7%
(01:01) Kneel down by LOCKLEAR, Ben at HOOS16 (team loss of 1), clock 00:54.Similar
Q4 0:19
3RD & 5
OPP 16
-1
99.7%
(00:19) [NH] Kneel down by LOCKLEAR, Ben at HOOS17 (team loss of 1), clock 00:14.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:23
Tony Muskett run for 2 yds for a TD (Tony Muskett pass to Tyler Neville for Two-Point Conversion)
-10.2
TD · Q4 13:12
Tony Muskett run for 5 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-7.3
TD · Q2 1:50
William Watson III pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 66 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)
+7.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com