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PITT

Pittsburgh 25 at SMU 48

SMU
2024 · Week 10 · Nov 2, 2024 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
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Win probability · SMU
modelSMU aheadPITT aheadconfidence bandkey playSMU scorePITT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:19 · (00:19) [NHSG] Kneel down by LUSTER, Keldric at SMU23 (team loss of 2), clock 00:15.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:15: Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK) — SMU win probability +3.7 pts (now 74%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:43: Brashard Smith run for 71 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK) — SMU win probability +8.1 pts (now 82%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:53: Kevin Jennings pass complete to Brashard Smith for 3 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK) — SMU win probability +7.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 0:02: Collin Rogers 50 yd FG GOOD — SMU win probability +1.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:36: Desmond Reid run for 1 yd for a TD (E. Holstein Run For Two-point Conversion) — PITT win probability +2.1 pts (now 3%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7PITT made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 9:26PITT 4th & 9 at SMU 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.3%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:30SMU 4th & 13 at SMU 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.1%−0.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:55PITT 4th & 4 at SMU 26, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.1%−0.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    28.1%−1.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:56PITT 4th & 3 at SMU 29, down 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.1%−0.5
    58% to make
    Punt
    22.9%−2.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:58PITT 4th & 14 at PITT 21, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.3%−2.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:06SMU 4th & 6 at PITT 45, up 18
    Close callPunted · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    81.6%−1.5
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    82.7%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:57PITT 4th & 21 at PITT 33, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%−1.5
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:34PITT 4th & 10 at PITT 25, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.3%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:39SMU 4th & 10 at PITT 10, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.9%
    88% to make
    Punt
    97.6%−1.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:11PITT 4th & 4 at SMU 9, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.3%
    43% to convert
    Field goal
    1.3%−<0.1
    89% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:18SMU 4th & 10 at SMU 6, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:31PITT 4th & 2 at SMU 33, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:22PITT 4th & 6 at SMU 25, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%−<0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:40SMU 4th & 10 at SMU 48, up 37
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:37PITT 4th & 4 at PITT 33, down 37
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:35SMU 4th & 6 at SMU 29, up 37
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:26SMU 4th & 17 at PITT 46, up 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−<0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6PITT made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q1 12:19SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:15SMU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:43SMU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:53SMU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:36PITT Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    1.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    1.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:46SMU Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:56SMU Touchdown, up 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:01PITT Touchdown, down 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:23PITT Touchdown, down 24 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.4%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3970% → 71%
Q1 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.8%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+43
69.7%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 43 yds to the PITT 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
69.8%
Brashard Smith run for 3 yds to the PITT 29Similar
Q1 13:59
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+12
69.8%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Brashard Smith for 12 yds to the PITT 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
69.8%
Brashard Smith run for 5 yds to the PITT 12Similar
Q1 13:01
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+10
69.8%
Brashard Smith run for 10 yds to the PITT 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
70.5%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 2:5330% → 29%
Q1 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
70.2%
Eli Holstein run for 4 yds to the PITT 29Similar
Q1 11:50
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+14
70.2%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Desmond Reid for 14 yds to the PITT 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
70.2%
Desmond Reid run for 2 yds to the PITT 45Similar
Q1 10:47
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+5
70.1%
(10:47) HOLSTEIN, Eli pass short up the middle incomplete intended for JOHNSON, Kenny thrown to the SMU50, clock 10:45. PENALTY SMU Pass Interference on WALKER, Ahmad enforced at the spot of the foul for 5 yards to the SMU50 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 10:41
1ST & 10
50
0
70.0%
Eli Holstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:40
2ND & 10
50
+6
70.1%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 6 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q1 10:08
3RD & 4
OPP 44
-5
70.2%
Eli Holstein sacked by Isaiah Smith for a loss of 5 yards to the SMU 49Similar
Q1 9:26
4TH & 9
OPP 49
0
70.8%
Caleb Junko punt for 21 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:4671% → 71%
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
70.9%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:12
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
70.9%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:07
3RD & 10
OWN 28
-3
70.7%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to LJ Johnson Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 25Similar
Q1 8:30
4TH & 13
OWN 25
+9
70.5%
Isaac Pearson punt for 43 yds , Desmond Reid returns for 9 yds to the PITT 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 4FG
8 plays · 33 yds · 2:2029% → 31%
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
70.6%
Desmond Reid run for 7 yds to the PITT 48Similar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+9
70.4%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 9 yds to the SMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
70.3%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 4 yds to the SMU 39Similar
Q1 7:11
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+7
70.3%
Desmond Reid run for 7 yds to the SMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
70.1%
Eli Holstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:35
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+6
70.1%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Jake Overman for 6 yds to the SMU 26Similar
Q1 6:03
3RD & 4
OPP 26
0
70.4%
Eli Holstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:55
4TH & 4
OPP 26
+44
69.3%
Ben Sauls 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 6:4070% → 74%
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
69.5%
Brashard Smith run for 4 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q1 5:32
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+9
69.5%
Brashard Smith run for 9 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
69.8%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:04
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+10
69.7%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 10 yds to the SMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
70.2%
Brashard Smith run for no gain to the SMU 48Similar
Q1 4:02
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
70.1%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:58
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+22
69.4%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Matthew Hibner for 22 yds to the PITT 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
70.6%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Brashard Smith for 8 yds to the PITT 22Similar
Q1 2:56
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+4
70.6%
Brashard Smith run for 4 yds to the PITT 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-1
70.4%
Brashard Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the PITT 19Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 11
OPP 19
+3
70.4%
Brashard Smith run for 3 yds to the PITT 16Similar
Q1 1:08
3RD & 8
OPP 16
-10
69.9%
(01:08) JENNINGS, Kevin pass short to the right complete for 16 yards to JOHNSON JR., LJ caught at the PIT14 and advanced to the PIT0, TOUCHDOWN SMU, score nullified by penalty, clock 01:02 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY SMU Holding on WILLIAMS, PJ enforced 10 yards from the PIT16 to the PIT26 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 1:00
3RD & 18
OPP 26
+23
69.4%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Moochie Dixon for 23 yds to the PITT 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
70.4%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the PITT 4Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
70.4%
Brashard Smith run for 1 yd to the PITT 3Similar
Q2 14:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
74.1%
Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 6MISSED FG
10 plays · 46 yds · 3:1927% → 26%
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
73.3%
(14:15) HOLSTEIN, Eli sacked for a loss of 2 yards at the PIT23 (ROBERSON JR., Kori), clock 14:10. PENALTY PIT Chop Block on JACOBY, Ryan enforced half the distance from the goal, 12 yards from the PIT25 to the PIT13 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:01
1ST & 22
OWN 13
+5
73.4%
SMU Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the PITT 18Similar
Q2 13:41
1ST & 17
OWN 18
+6
73.8%
Desmond Reid run for 6 yds to the PITT 24Similar
Q2 13:19
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+15
74.0%
SMU Penalty, Roughing the Passer on SMITH, Isaiah enforced (Key'Shawn Smith) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
50
+5
72.5%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Daejon Reynolds for 5 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+9
72.3%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Jake Overman for 9 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
72.3%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Rodney Hammond Jr. for 8 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q2 11:47
2ND & 2
OPP 28
0
71.5%
Eli Holstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:42
3RD & 2
OPP 28
-1
72.2%
Desmond Reid run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 29Similar
Q2 10:56
4TH & 3
OPP 29
+47
73.8%
Ben Sauls 47 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7TD
1 play · 71 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+71
81.8%
Brashard Smith run for 71 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:4518% → 17%
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
81.7%
Desmond Reid run for a loss of 4 yards to the PITT 21Similar
Q2 10:07
2ND & 14
OWN 21
0
82.2%
Eli Holstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:04
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
82.4%
Eli Holstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:58
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
82.8%
Caleb Junko punt for 28 yds, downed at the PITT 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:4384% → 87%
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
84.0%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 8 yds to the PITT 41Similar
Q2 9:29
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+1
83.9%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the PITT 40Similar
Q2 8:51
3RD & 1
OPP 40
0
84.0%
Brashard Smith run for no gain to the PITT 40Similar
Q2 8:08
4TH & 1
OPP 40
-5
83.2%
SMU Penalty, Illegal Substitution (TEAM) to the PITT 45Similar
Q2 8:06
4TH & 6
OPP 45
0
87.0%
Isaac Pearson punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Desmond Reid at the PITT 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 10FUMBLE
9 plays · 35 yds · 3:1917% → 16%
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
82.7%
Eli Holstein run for 1 yd to the PITT 12Similar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 9
OWN 12
+5
83.0%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 5 yds to the PITT 17Similar
Q2 7:01
3RD & 4
OWN 17
+24
83.2%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 24 yds to the PITT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
82.5%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 5 yds to the PITT 46Similar
Q2 6:18
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+11
82.1%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 11 yds to the SMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
81.3%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Rodney Hammond Jr. for 2 yds to the SMU 41Similar
Q2 5:24
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+4
81.8%
Desmond Reid run for 4 yds to the SMU 37Similar
Q2 4:49
3RD & 4
OPP 37
-10
81.8%
(04:49) HOLSTEIN, Eli pass short to the left incomplete thrown to the SMU36; QB hurried by BOOKER JR., Anthony, clock 04:42. PENALTY PIT Holding on ENOS JR., Terrence enforced 10 yards from the SMU37 to the SMU47 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 4:40
3RD & 14
OPP 47
-7
84.1%
Eli Holstein sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the PITT 46 Eli Holstein fumbled, recovered by SMU Cameron Robertson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 11TD
10 plays · 46 yds · 2:4388% → 93%
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
87.6%
Pittsburgh Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Ryland Gandy) to the PITT 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-10
87.5%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for a loss of 10 yards to the PITT 36 fumbled, recovered by SMU return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 20
OPP 36
+14
87.8%
Brashard Smith run for 14 yds to the PITT 22Similar
Q2 3:17
3RD & 6
OPP 22
-5
87.2%
SMU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PITT 27Similar
Q2 3:17
3RD & 11
OPP 27
+25
87.7%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 25 yds to the PITT 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
86.4%
Brashard Smith run for no gain to the PITT 2Similar
Q2 2:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
87.7%
Brashard Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the PITT 3Similar
Q2 1:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
92.6%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Brashard Smith for 3 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 0 yds · 0:4714% → 13%
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
86.2%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Desmond Reid for 11 yds to the PITT 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-10
85.1%
HOLSTEIN, Eli pass to the right incomplete intended for BARTHOLOMEW, Gavin thrown to the SMU45; QB hurried by ROBERTSON, Cameron, clock 01:32. PENALTY PIT Holding on ENOS JR., Terrence enforced 10 yards from the PIT44 to the PIT34 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 20
OWN 34
+4
86.8%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 4 yds to the PITT 38Similar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 16
OWN 38
-1
86.9%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Desmond Reid for a loss of 1 yard to the PITT 37Similar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 17
OWN 37
-4
87.1%
Eli Holstein sacked by Jared Harrison-Hunte for a loss of 4 yards to the PITT 33Similar
Q2 0:57
4TH & 21
OWN 33
0
87.4%
Caleb Junko punt for 26 yds, downed at the SMU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 13FG
6 plays · 26 yds · 0:4796% → 98%
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
95.6%
Brashard Smith run for 4 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+6
95.7%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 6 yds to the PITT 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+16
95.7%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 16 yds to the PITT 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
95.8%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:02
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+50
98.3%
Collin Rogers 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 14DOWNS
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:246% → 2%
Q3 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
93.6%
Desmond Reid run for a loss of 3 yards to the PITT 22Similar
Q3 14:34
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+3
96.9%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Desmond Reid for 3 yds to the PITT 25Similar
Q3 13:42
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
98.4%
Eli Holstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:34
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+3
98.4%
Caleb Junko pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 3 yds to the PITT 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 15FG
8 plays · 18 yds · 3:4698% → 99%
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+12
98.4%
Brashard Smith run for 12 yds to the PITT 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
98.5%
Brashard Smith run for 1 yd to the PITT 15Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+6
98.6%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Matthew Hibner for 6 yds to the PITT 9Similar
Q3 11:53
3RD & 3
OPP 9
+3
98.6%
Brashard Smith run for 3 yds to the PITT 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
98.7%
Brashard Smith run for no gain to the PITT 6Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-4
98.9%
Kevin Jennings sacked by Kyle Louis for a loss of 4 yards to the PITT 10Similar
Q3 9:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
99.0%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
99.1%
Collin Rogers 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 16DOWNS
14 plays · 59 yds · 4:191% → 1%
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
99.1%
Desmond Reid run for 13 yds to the PITT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
99.1%
Pittsburgh Penalty, False Start (Lyndon Cooper) to the PITT 43Similar
Q3 8:53
1ST & 15
OWN 43
-1
99.2%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Desmond Reid for a loss of 1 yard to the PITT 42Similar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 16
OWN 42
+16
99.2%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Jake Overman for 16 yds to the SMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
99.2%
Eli Holstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:44
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+9
99.2%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 9 yds to the SMU 33Similar
Q3 7:20
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+2
99.2%
Desmond Reid run for 2 yds to the SMU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
99.2%
Eli Holstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+5
99.2%
Eli Holstein run for 5 yds to the SMU 26Similar
Q3 6:21
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+11
99.0%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 11 yds to the SMU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
99.0%
Eli Holstein run for 6 yds to the SMU 9Similar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 4
OPP 9
0
98.9%
Eli Holstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:17
3RD & 4
OPP 9
0
99.0%
Eli Holstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:11
4TH & 4
OPP 9
+3
98.7%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 3 yds to the SMU 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:43100% → 100%
Q3 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
99.5%
Brashard Smith run for no gain to the SMU 6Similar
Q3 4:28
2ND & 10
OWN 6
0
99.5%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:24
3RD & 10
OWN 6
0
99.5%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:18
4TH & 10
OWN 6
0
99.5%
Isaac Pearson punt for 46 yds , Desmond Reid returns for no gain to the PITT 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 18TD
13 plays · 56 yds · 3:351% → 3%
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
99.4%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 5 yds to the PITT 49Similar
Q3 3:48
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+10
99.4%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 10 yds to the SMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
99.6%
Eli Holstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:24
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+4
99.6%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 4 yds to the SMU 37Similar
Q3 2:56
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+4
99.6%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 4 yds to the SMU 33Similar
Q3 2:31
4TH & 2
OPP 33
+4
99.5%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 4 yds to the SMU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
99.6%
Eli Holstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:03
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
99.6%
Eli Holstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:02
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+4
99.7%
Desmond Reid run for 4 yds to the SMU 25Similar
Q3 1:22
4TH & 6
OPP 25
+24
99.6%
Eli Holstein run for 24 yds to the SMU 0 Eli Holstein fumbled, recovered by PITT for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.4%
Eli Holstein run for no gain to the SMU 1Similar
Q3 0:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.3%
Desmond Reid run for 1 yd for a TD (E. Holstein Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 19TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:4898% → 100%
Q3 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
98.4%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 3 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-2
98.5%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Brashard Smith for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 26Similar
Q4 14:39
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+12
98.5%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Moochie Dixon for 12 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
98.9%
Brashard Smith run for 1 yd to the SMU 39Similar
Q4 13:22
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+43
98.9%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 43 yds to the PITT 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
99.8%
Brashard Smith run for 18 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 20INT
10 plays · 70 yds · 2:330% → 0%
Q4 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Eli Holstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.8%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Daejon Reynolds for 15 yds to the PITT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
99.8%
pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
50
-5
99.8%
Eli Holstein run for a loss of 5 yards to the PITT 45 Eli Holstein fumbled, recovered by PITT Desmond Reid D. Reid return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 15
OWN 45
+18
99.8%
pass complete to Desmond Reid for 18 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
99.8%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Censere Lee for 3 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q4 10:57
2ND & 7
OPP 34
0
99.8%
Eli Holstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:53
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+12
99.8%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Daejon Reynolds for 12 yds to the SMU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+17
99.8%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Jake Overman for 17 yds to the SMU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
99.8%
Eli Holstein pass intercepted, touchback. Jonathan McGill return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 21TD
1 play · 80 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
99.8%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Matthew Hibner for 80 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -11 yds · 0:460% → 0%
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.9%
Che Nwabuko run for 3 yds to the PITT 28Similar
Q4 9:35
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Eli Holstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-14
99.9%
(09:30) HOLSTEIN, Eli pass to the left incomplete intended for REYNOLDS, Daejon broken up by MUHAMMAD, Abdul at the PIT34, clock 09:18. PENALTY PIT Face mask on WILLIAMS JR., Raphael enforced half the distance from the goal, 14 yards from the PIT28 to the PIT14 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 9:08
3RD & 21
OWN 14
+1
99.9%
Caleb Junko punt for 39 yds , Roderick Daniels Jr. returns for 1 yd to the SMU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:18100% → 100%
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
99.9%
Zach Hernandez run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:26
2ND & 8
50
-2
99.9%
Zach Hernandez run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 48Similar
Q4 7:43
3RD & 10
OWN 48
0
99.9%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:40
4TH & 10
OWN 48
+22
99.9%
Isaac Pearson punt for 47 yds , Desmond Reid returns for 22 yds to the PITT 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:460% → 0%
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
99.9%
Che Nwabuko run for 4 yds to the PITT 31Similar
Q4 7:05
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+2
99.9%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Che Nwabuko for 2 yds to the PITT 33Similar
Q4 6:39
3RD & 4
OWN 33
0
99.9%
Nate Yarnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:37
4TH & 4
OWN 33
0
99.9%
Caleb Junko punt for 42 yds, downed at the SMU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:50100% → 100%
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.9%
Zach Hernandez run for 4 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q4 5:43
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:35
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+13
99.9%
Isaac Pearson punt for 52 yds , Desmond Reid returns for 13 yds to the PITT 42 SMU Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Nate Anderson) to the PITT 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 26TD
4 plays · 53 yds · 1:200% → 0%
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
99.9%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Raphael Williams Jr. for 5 yds to the SMU 48Similar
Q4 4:58
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+26
99.9%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 26 yds to the SMU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
99.9%
Daniel Carter run for 9 yds to the SMU 13Similar
Q4 4:01
2ND & 1
OPP 13
+13
99.9%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 13 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:26100% → 100%
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
99.9%
Keldric Luster pass complete to Carter Campbell for no gain to the PITT 39Similar
Q4 3:13
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-7
99.9%
Keldric Luster sacked by Jordan Bass for a loss of 7 yards to the PITT 46Similar
Q4 2:33
3RD & 17
OPP 46
0
99.9%
Keldric Luster pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:26
4TH & 17
OPP 46
0
99.9%
Isaac Pearson punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 28TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 1:570% → 1%
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
99.9%
SMU Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Brandon Crossley) to the PITT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+14
99.9%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 14 yds to the SMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
99.9%
Nate Yarnell run for 4 yds to the SMU 37Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 6
OPP 37
-2
99.9%
Derrick Davis Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 39Similar
Q4 1:29
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+21
99.9%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Malachi Thomas for 21 yds to the SMU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
99.9%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 3 yds to the SMU 15Similar
Q4 0:53
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+14
99.9%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Raphael Williams Jr. for 14 yds to the SMU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.3%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Malachi Thomas for 1 yd for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 29END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
99.8%
(00:19) [NHSG] Kneel down by LUSTER, Keldric at SMU23 (team loss of 2), clock 00:15.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:43
Brashard Smith run for 71 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)
+8.1
TD · Q2 1:53
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Brashard Smith for 3 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)
+7
TD · Q2 14:15
Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)
+3.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com