Try the model
CAL

California 6 at SMU 38

SMU
2024 · Week 14 · Nov 30, 2024 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · SMU
modelSMU aheadCAL aheadconfidence bandkey playSMU scoreCAL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:24 · Lachlan Wilson punt for 25 yds, downed at the SMU 38
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 22Home team on offense+1.4Pregame prior+26.4Score differential+0.3Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4Blowout margin+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:04: Brashard Smith run for 5 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK) — SMU win probability +3.1 pts (now 84%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:02: Derrick McFall run for 8 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK) — SMU win probability +5.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 5:30: Ryan Coe 40 yd FG GOOD — CAL win probability +2.6 pts (now 6%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 14:54: Ryan Coe 53 yd FG GOOD — CAL win probability +2.2 pts (now 8%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:28: Kevin Jennings pass complete to Brashard Smith for 23 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK) — SMU win probability +2.0 pts (now 100%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7CAL made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 13:32SMU 4th & 6 at SMU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:05CAL 4th & 3 at CAL 20, tied
    Close callPunted · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.0%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:24CAL 4th & 8 at CAL 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.1%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:32CAL 4th & 9 at SMU 49, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.5%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:41CAL 4th & 20 at SMU 20, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.4%−1.2
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.6%
    75% to make
    Punt
    6.8%−2.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:14SMU 4th & 8 at SMU 22, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.5%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:21CAL 4th & 9 at SMU 43, down 21
    Close callPunted · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.9%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    7.5%−0.4
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    7.8%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:07SMU 4th & 7 at SMU 18, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.4%−0.7
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:08CAL 4th & 1 at SMU 40, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    5.8%−1.4
    34% to make
    Punt
    5.7%−1.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:36CAL 4th & 7 at SMU 30, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.4%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    6.8%
    56% to make
    Punt
    5.7%−1.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:03SMU 4th & 14 at SMU 45, up 21
    Numbers favored punt by 1.5 ptsWent for it · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.4%−1.5
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    93.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:56CAL 4th & 2 at SMU 49, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.7%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.1%−0.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:45SMU 4th & 23 at SMU 44, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.8%−0.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.7%
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:30CAL 4th & 12 at SMU 22, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.9%−0.6
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.5%
    72% to make
    Punt
    1.3%−2.3
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:22SMU 4th & 1 at SMU 45, up 18
    Close callPunted · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.9%−0.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:54CAL 4th & 15 at SMU 35, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.2%−0.7
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.9%
    45% to make
    Punt
    4.4%−0.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:25SMU 4th & 8 at CAL 31, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.8%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.9%
    54% to make
    Punt
    95.3%−0.5
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:09CAL 4th & 17 at CAL 18, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 8:36SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:04SMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:02SMU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 8:28SMU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 3:38SMU Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 1:2680% → 79%
Q1 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
79.8%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 11 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-3
79.7%
Brashard Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 33Similar
Q1 14:11
2ND & 13
OWN 33
+7
79.6%
Kevin Jennings run for 7 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q1 13:33
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
79.4%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:32
4TH & 6
OWN 40
-2
79.4%
Isaac Pearson punt for 45 yds , Mikey Matthews returns for a loss of 2 yards to the CAL 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2021% → 21%
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
79.4%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+4
79.4%
Mikey Matthews run for 4 yds to the CAL 17Similar
Q1 12:43
3RD & 6
OWN 17
+3
79.3%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Nyziah Hunter for 3 yds to the CAL 20Similar
Q1 12:05
4TH & 3
OWN 20
+11
79.2%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 45 yds , Roderick Daniels Jr. returns for 11 yds to the SMU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3TD
9 plays · 54 yds · 3:1979% → 80%
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
79.2%
Brashard Smith run for 1 yd to the SMU 47Similar
Q1 11:29
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+18
79.1%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 18 yds to the CAL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
79.2%
Brashard Smith run for 4 yds to the CAL 31Similar
Q1 10:53
2ND & 6
OPP 31
-3
79.2%
Kevin Jennings run for a loss of 3 yards to the CAL 34Similar
Q1 10:16
3RD & 9
OPP 34
+32
78.9%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Brashard Smith for 32 yds to the CAL 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
79.0%
Brashard Smith run for 1 yd to the CAL 1Similar
Q1 9:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
78.9%
SMU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CAL 6Similar
Q1 8:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
78.8%
SMU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CAL 11Similar
Q1 8:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
80.2%
Matthew Hibner 11 Yd pass from Kevin Jennings (Collin Rogers Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1220% → 20%
Q1 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
79.7%
Jaydn Ott run for no gain to the CAL 25Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
79.7%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:59
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+2
79.9%
Chandler Rogers run for 2 yds to the CAL 27Similar
Q1 7:24
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
80.0%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 25 yds, downed at the SMU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5TD
8 plays · 62 yds · 3:0680% → 84%
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
80.0%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q1 6:43
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+18
80.1%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Derrick McFall for 18 yds to the CAL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
80.3%
Kevin Jennings run for 6 yds to the CAL 36Similar
Q1 5:40
2ND & 4
OPP 36
-5
80.3%
(05:40) JENNINGS, Kevin pass deep to the right complete for 16 yards to DANIELS, JR., Roderick caught at the CAL20 and advanced to the CAL20, End of Play, clock 05:30. PENALTY SMU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on OSBORNE, Justin enforced 5 yards from the CAL36 to the CAL41 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:13
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+26
80.3%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 26 yds to the CAL 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
80.4%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:50
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+10
80.4%
Kevin Jennings run for 10 yds to the CAL 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
83.5%
Brashard Smith run for 5 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 26 yds · 2:2818% → 17%
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
82.2%
Chandler Rogers run for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:24
1ST & 10
50
-4
82.0%
Chandler Rogers run for a loss of 4 yards to the CAL 46Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 14
OWN 46
+6
82.6%
Jonathan Brady run for 6 yds to the SMU 48Similar
Q1 2:04
3RD & 8
OPP 48
-1
82.2%
Jaydn Ott run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 49Similar
Q1 1:32
4TH & 9
OPP 49
0
82.6%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7TD
9 plays · 88 yds · 3:1984% → 90%
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+24
83.5%
Brashard Smith run for 24 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
83.8%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Brashard Smith for 11 yds to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
84.3%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:20
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+21
84.3%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Matthew Hibner for 21 yds to the CAL 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:58
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
84.5%
Brashard Smith run for 2 yds to the CAL 30Similar
Q2 14:34
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+9
84.6%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Matthew Hibner for 9 yds to the CAL 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
84.7%
Brashard Smith run for 8 yds to the CAL 13Similar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 2
OPP 13
+5
84.8%
Brashard Smith run for 5 yds to the CAL 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
89.9%
Derrick McFall run for 8 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 8MISSED FG
13 plays · 55 yds · 3:2111% → 9%
Q2 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.5%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
89.7%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:52
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+37
90.1%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Tobias Merriweather for 37 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
89.5%
Jaydn Ott run for 3 yds to the SMU 35Similar
Q2 11:54
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+17
89.4%
SMU Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Jonathan McGill) to the SMU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
89.5%
SMU Penalty, Face mask (3 yards) (3 Yards) to the SMU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
89.7%
Chandler Rogers run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 5Similar
Q2 10:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-10
89.9%
Chandler Rogers sacked by Elijah Roberts for a loss of 10 yards to the SMU 15Similar
Q2 9:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
0
91.1%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 15
-5
91.3%
California Penalty, Delay Of Game (Miles Williams) to the SMU 20Similar
Q2 9:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 20
+38
91.4%
Derek Morris 38 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2392% → 92%
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-4
92.4%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the SMU 16Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 14
OWN 16
0
92.6%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:51
3RD & 14
OWN 16
+6
92.5%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to LJ Johnson Jr. for 6 yds to the SMU 22Similar
Q2 8:14
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
92.0%
Isaac Pearson punt for 37 yds, downed at the CAL 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 2:429% → 8%
Q2 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
91.2%
Jaydn Ott run for 4 yds to the CAL 45Similar
Q2 7:29
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+11
91.2%
Chandler Rogers run for 1 yd to the SMU 46 for a 1ST down SMU Penalty, Defensive Holding (Cale Sanders Jr.) to the SMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
91.1%
Jaydn Ott run for 5 yds to the SMU 39Similar
Q2 6:31
2ND & 5
OPP 39
-5
91.3%
(06:31) OTT, Jaydn rush to the right for no gain to the SMU39 (HARVEY, Jahfari), clock 06:27. PENALTY Before the snap, CAL Illegal Motion on HUNTER, Nyziah enforced 5 yards from the SMU39 to the SMU44. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-4
91.7%
Jonathan Brady run for a loss of 4 yards to the SMU 48Similar
Q2 5:44
3RD & 14
OPP 48
+5
92.3%
(05:44) ROGERS, Chandler pass to the right complete for 11 yards to HUNTER, Nyziah caught at the SMU37 and advanced to the SMU37, End of Play, clock 05:39. PENALTY SMU Offsides on WALKER, Ahmad enforced 5 yards from the SMU48 to the SMU43 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 5:26
3RD & 9
OPP 43
0
91.9%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:21
4TH & 9
OPP 43
0
92.0%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Roderick Daniels Jr. at the SMU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1094% → 94%
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
94.3%
Derrick McFall run for 3 yds to the SMU 18Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 7
OWN 18
0
94.4%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Matthew Hibner for no gain to the SMU 18Similar
Q2 4:16
3RD & 7
OWN 18
0
94.4%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:07
4TH & 7
OWN 18
0
94.3%
Isaac Pearson punt for 31 yds, downed at the SMU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 12DOWNS
10 plays · 16 yds · 3:258% → 7%
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-6
92.4%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Corey Dyches for a loss of 6 yards to the CAL 45Similar
Q2 3:18
2ND & 16
OWN 45
-2
93.4%
Jaydn Ott run for a loss of 2 yards to the CAL 43Similar
Q2 2:32
3RD & 18
OWN 43
-17
93.7%
California Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-17 Yards) to the SMU 40Similar
Q2 2:08
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+7
93.1%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Jack Endries for 7 yds to the SMU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
92.2%
Jaydn Ott run for 3 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 7
OPP 30
-2
92.2%
Jaydn Ott run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 32Similar
Q2 1:20
3RD & 9
OPP 32
+2
92.9%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 2 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q2 0:36
4TH & 7
OPP 30
-3
92.9%
Chandler Rogers sacked by Jahfari Harvey for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 13DOWNS
8 plays · 12 yds · 0:3295% → 94%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
95.3%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Moochie Dixon for 7 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+9
95.2%
Brashard Smith run for 9 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-4
95.2%
Kevin Jennings sacked by Ryan McCulloch for a loss of 4 yards to the SMU 45Similar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 14
OWN 45
0
96.0%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:09
3RD & 14
OWN 45
0
95.5%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 14
OWN 45
0
95.2%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
94.1%
(14:58) ROGERS, Chandler pass short up the middle incomplete intended for BRADY, Jonathan thrown to the CAL30, clock 14:57. PENALTY CAL Pass Interference on MATTHEWS, Mikey enforced half the distance from the goal, 12 yards to the CAL13 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 14DOWNS
8 plays · 18 yds · 3:016% → 5%
Q3 14:57
1ST & 22
OWN 13
+6
94.1%
Jaydn Ott run for 6 yds to the CAL 19Similar
Q3 14:18
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+9
94.3%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Nyziah Hunter for 9 yds to the CAL 28Similar
Q3 13:43
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+15
94.4%
(13:43) ROGERS, Chandler pass deep to the right incomplete intended for MATTHEWS, Mikey thrown to the SMU42, clock 13:39. PENALTY SMU Pass Interference on NWOKOBIA, Isaiah enforced 15 yards to the CAL43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
94.0%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:36
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-2
94.1%
Chandler Rogers sacked by Kobe Wilson for a loss of 2 yards to the CAL 41Similar
Q3 12:58
3RD & 12
OWN 41
-5
94.7%
California Penalty, False Start (Jaydn Ott) to the CAL 36Similar
Q3 12:40
3RD & 17
OWN 36
+15
94.8%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Nyziah Hunter for 15 yds to the SMU 49Similar
Q3 11:56
4TH & 2
OPP 49
-8
94.6%
Chandler Rogers sacked by Jared Harrison-Hunte for a loss of 8 yards to the CAL 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -13 yds · 1:0596% → 95%
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
95.9%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:44
2ND & 10
OPP 43
-5
95.9%
Kevin Jennings run for a loss of 5 yards to the CAL 48Similar
Q3 11:05
3RD & 15
OPP 48
-15
95.7%
SMU Penalty, turnover on downs. PENALTY Unsportsmanlike Conduct on CLARK, Jakai enforced (-15 Yards) to the SMU 44Similar
Q3 10:45
4TH & 23
OWN 44
0
95.4%
Isaac Pearson punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 16FG
13 plays · 45 yds · 5:085% → 6%
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
95.2%
Chandler Rogers run for 3 yds to the CAL 36Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+1
95.3%
Jaydn Ott run for 1 yd to the CAL 37Similar
Q3 9:19
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+7
95.7%
Chandler Rogers run for 7 yds to the CAL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
95.7%
Jaydn Ott run for 1 yd to the CAL 45Similar
Q3 8:26
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+7
95.9%
CJ Harris run for 7 yds to the SMU 48Similar
Q3 7:49
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+2
96.0%
Jaydn Ott run for 2 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
96.0%
SMU Penalty, Delay Of Game (5 Yards) to the SMU 41Similar
Q3 7:09
1ST & 5
OPP 41
+7
95.9%
CJ Harris run for 7 yds to the SMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+14
95.8%
CJ Harris pass complete to Mikey Matthews for 14 yds to the SMU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
95.7%
CJ Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:18
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
95.8%
CJ Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:14
3RD & 10
OPP 20
-2
96.2%
CJ Harris pass complete to Mikey Matthews for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 22Similar
Q3 5:30
4TH & 12
OPP 22
+40
93.6%
Ryan Coe 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 3:0895% → 95%
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
94.9%
Brashard Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 24Similar
Q3 4:48
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+7
95.1%
Brashard Smith run for 7 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q3 4:07
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
94.4%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 5 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
94.7%
Brashard Smith run for 3 yds to the SMU 39Similar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+1
95.0%
Brashard Smith run for 1 yd to the SMU 40Similar
Q3 2:38
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
95.0%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:32
4TH & 6
OWN 40
+5
94.5%
(02:32) PEARSON, Isaac punt 33 yards to the CAL27 downed by BENTON, Will, clock 02:24. PENALTY CAL Running Into the kicker on ANDERSON, Mavin enforced 5 yards from the SMU40 to the SMU45 [FAKE PUNT]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 2:22
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
94.6%
Isaac Pearson punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Mikey Matthews at the CAL 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 18FG
6 plays · 55 yds · 2:186% → 8%
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+60
94.0%
CJ Harris pass complete to Nyziah Hunter for 60 yds to the SMU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-10
92.6%
(01:49) OTT, Jaydn rush up the middle for a gain of 18 yards to the SMU12 (CROSSLEY, Brandon), out of bounds, clock 01:45. PENALTY CAL Holding on MILLER, Braden enforced 10 yards from the SMU30 to the SMU40 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 1:27
1ST & 20
OPP 40
-1
93.5%
CJ Harris pass complete to Jaydn Ott for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 41Similar
Q3 0:45
2ND & 21
OPP 41
0
94.1%
CJ Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:41
3RD & 21
OPP 41
+6
94.7%
CJ Harris pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 6 yds to the SMU 35Similar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 15
OPP 35
+53
92.5%
Ryan Coe 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 19FG
13 plays · 44 yds · 5:2994% → 97%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
94.1%
(14:54) JENNINGS, Kevin pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for DANIELS, JR., Roderick thrown to the SMU44, clock 14:49. PENALTY CAL Pass Interference on WAGONER, Jasiah enforced 15 yards to the SMU40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
94.6%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 8 yds to the SMU 48Similar
Q4 14:27
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+3
94.6%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the CAL 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
95.0%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the SMU 46Similar
Q4 13:17
2ND & 15
OWN 46
+4
95.1%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 12:39
3RD & 11
50
+17
95.3%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 17 yds to the CAL 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
95.6%
SMU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CAL 38Similar
Q4 12:08
1ST & 15
OPP 38
+4
95.8%
Brashard Smith run for 4 yds to the CAL 34Similar
Q4 11:28
2ND & 11
OPP 34
-10
96.1%
(11:28) JENNINGS, Kevin pass deep to the right incomplete intended for HUDSON, Jordan thrown to the CAL1, clock 11:21. PENALTY SMU Holding on WILLIAMS, PJ enforced 10 yards from the CAL34 to the CAL44 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 11:21
2ND & 21
OPP 44
+4
96.0%
Kevin Jennings run for 4 yds to the CAL 40Similar
Q4 10:36
3RD & 17
OPP 40
-5
95.9%
(10:36) JENNINGS, Kevin pass up the middle complete for 12 yards to SMITH, Key'Shawn caught at the CAL29 and advanced to the CAL28 (WILLIAMS, Nohl), clock 10:30. PENALTY SMU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on OSBORNE, Justin enforced 5 yards from the CAL40 to the CAL45 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:11
3RD & 22
OPP 45
+14
95.9%
Kevin Jennings run for 14 yds to the CAL 31Similar
Q4 9:25
4TH & 8
OPP 31
+48
97.4%
Collin Rogers 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 20INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-23
96.4%
CJ Harris pass intercepted Jonathan McGill return for 23 yds to the CAL 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 21TD
2 plays · 21 yds · 0:4498% → 100%
Q4 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-2
97.7%
Brashard Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the CAL 23Similar
Q4 8:28
2ND & 12
OPP 23
+23
99.7%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Brashard Smith for 23 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:191% → 1%
Q4 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
99.2%
CJ Harris pass complete to Nyziah Hunter for a loss of 2 yards to the CAL 23Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-5
99.2%
CJ Harris sacked by Kobe Wilson for a loss of 5 yards to the CAL 18Similar
Q4 7:18
3RD & 17
OWN 18
0
99.0%
CJ Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:09
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
99.0%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 44 yds , Roderick Daniels Jr. returns for no gain to the SMU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 23TD
7 plays · 62 yds · 3:23100% → 100%
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+23
99.7%
Preston Stone pass complete to Moochie Dixon for 23 yds to the CAL 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
99.8%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 4 yds to the CAL 35Similar
Q4 5:41
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+10
99.8%
Preston Stone pass complete to Derrick McFall for 10 yds to the CAL 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
99.8%
Preston Stone run for a loss of 2 yards to the CAL 27Similar
Q4 4:29
2ND & 12
OPP 27
-4
99.8%
Preston Stone pass complete to Derrick McFall for 6 yds to the CAL 21 SMU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the CAL 35Similar
Q4 4:01
2ND & 20
OPP 35
-5
99.8%
SMU Penalty, False Start (Ben Sparks) to the CAL 40Similar
Q4 3:38
2ND & 25
OPP 40
+40
99.9%
Preston Stone pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 40 yds for a TD (Gabriel Lozano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 24END OF GAME
7 plays · 31 yds · 2:590% → 0%
Q4 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.9%
CJ Harris run for 10 yds to the CAL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
99.9%
Byron Cardwell Jr. run for 4 yds to the CAL 39Similar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+10
99.9%
CJ Harris run for 10 yds to the CAL 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
99.9%
Byron Cardwell Jr. run for 7 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q4 1:17
2ND & 3
OPP 44
-3
99.9%
CJ Harris run for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 47Similar
Q4 0:35
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+3
99.9%
Byron Cardwell Jr. run for 3 yds to the SMU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 13:02
Derrick McFall run for 8 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)
+5.1
TD · Q1 4:04
Brashard Smith run for 5 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)
+3.1
FG · Q3 5:30
Ryan Coe 40 yd FG GOOD
-2.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com