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PITT

Pittsburgh 23 at Boston College 34

BC
2024 · Week 14 · Nov 30, 2024 · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
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Win probability · BC
modelBC aheadPITT aheadconfidence bandkey playBC scorePITT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:18 · Nate Yarnell pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+28.5+14.30−14.3−28.5Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 163Home team on offense+27.8Pregame prior+0.2Garbage-time factor+7.2Score differential+8.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+10.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+2.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:35: Kye Robichaux run for 2 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK) — BC win probability +8.9 pts (now 78%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:33: Nate Yarnell pass intercepted Ty Clemons return for 55 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK) — BC win probability +11.4 pts (now 76%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:50: Nate Yarnell pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 5 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK) — PITT win probability +13.8 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q3 2:33: Grayson James pass complete to Reed Harris for 28 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK) — BC win probability +13.1 pts (now 82%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:12: Grayson James pass complete to Kamari Morales for 15 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK) — BC win probability +10.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BC made the numbers' call on 5 of 9PITT made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 5:16BC 4th & 1 at PITT 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    60.5%−0.6
    90% to make
    Punt
    58.8%−2.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:12PITT 4th & 9 at PITT 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:18PITT 4th & 1 at PITT 30, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 35.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.4%−1.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:21BC 4th & 19 at BC 4, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.4%−2.0
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 11:04PITT 4th & 3 at PITT 44, down 6
    Close callPunted · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:21BC 4th & 5 at PITT 47, up 6
    Close callPunted · 66.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.2%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:07PITT 4th & 13 at PITT 22, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.8%−2.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:38BC 4th & 1 at BC 45, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 69.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.4%−1.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:10BC 4th & 2 at PITT 35, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    75.8%−2.0
    45% to make
    Punt
    75.0%−2.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:07PITT 4th & 8 at PITT 27, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.7%−1.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.1%
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:50BC 4th & 3 at BC 36, up 10
    Close callPunted · 84.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.0%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:41PITT 4th & 12 at PITT 31, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%−2.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:32BC 4th & 4 at BC 23, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.4%−0.3
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:09PITT 4th & 2 at PITT 41, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    14.3%−0.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:09BC 4th & 4 at PITT 23, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    85.5%−0.3
    70% to make
    Punt
    80.6%−5.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:49BC 4th & 9 at PITT 40, up 11
    Close callPunted · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.8%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    95.7%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    95.7%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:18PITT 4th & 14 at PITT 6, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.5%
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.4%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BC made the numbers' call on 4 of 5PITT made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 1:53BC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    64.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    64.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:35BC Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:56PITT Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:33BC Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:50PITT Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:33BC Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:12BC Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:59PITT Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    7.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    6.6%−0.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BCDrive 1DOWNS
10 plays · 73 yds · 5:4860% → 60%
Q1 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
59.8%
Kye Robichaux run for no gain to the BC 18Similar
Q1 11:04
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+2
59.7%
Kye Robichaux run for 2 yds to the BC 20Similar
Q1 11:04
3RD & 8
OWN 20
+25
59.6%
Grayson James pass complete to Lewis Bond for 25 yds to the BC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
60.1%
Kye Robichaux run for 2 yds to the BC 47Similar
Q1 11:04
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+9
60.2%
Kye Robichaux run for 9 yds to the PITT 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+27
60.3%
Grayson James pass complete to Kamari Morales for 27 yds to the PITT 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
60.4%
Kye Robichaux run for 1 yd to the PITT 16Similar
Q1 11:04
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+4
60.4%
Kye Robichaux run for 4 yds to the PITT 12Similar
Q1 11:04
3RD & 5
OPP 12
+4
60.2%
Grayson James pass complete to Reed Harris for 4 yds to the PITT 8Similar
Q1 5:16
4TH & 1
OPP 8
-1
60.1%
Kye Robichaux run for a loss of 1 yard to the PITT 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 2:0440% → 40%
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+10
59.7%
Nate Yarnell run for 10 yds to the PITT 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+15
59.5%
YARNELL, Nate pass deep to the right incomplete intended for JOHNSON, Kenny thrown to the PITT43. PENALTY BC Face mask on TUCKER, Max enforced 15 yards from the PITT19 to the PITT34 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
59.3%
Juelz Goff run for 4 yds to the PITT 38Similar
Q1 3:29
2ND & 6
OWN 38
-3
58.8%
Nate Yarnell sacked by Donovan Ezeiruaku and Joe Marinaro for a loss of 3 yards to the PITT 35Similar
Q1 3:29
3RD & 9
OWN 35
0
60.0%
Nate Yarnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:12
4TH & 9
OWN 35
+14
60.2%
Caleb Junko punt for 46 yds , Isaiah Farris returns for 14 yds to the BC 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 3TD
3 plays · 67 yds · 1:1960% → 65%
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
60.2%
Jordan McDonald run for 5 yds to the BC 38Similar
Q1 3:12
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+26
61.0%
Grayson James pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for 26 yds to the PITT 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
65.2%
Jordan McDonald 36 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3536% → 35%
Q1 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
64.1%
Juelz Goff run for 3 yds to the PITT 24Similar
Q1 1:53
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+5
64.0%
Nate Yarnell run for 5 yds to the PITT 29Similar
Q1 1:53
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+1
64.0%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 1 yd to the PITT 30Similar
Q1 0:18
4TH & 1
OWN 30
-4
65.0%
Caleb Junko punt for 53 yds , Isaiah Farris returns for a loss of 4 yards to the BC 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 1:3965% → 64%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
64.8%
Grayson James pass complete to Lewis Bond for 3 yds to the BC 16Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 16
-3
64.7%
Jordan McDonald run for a loss of 3 yards to the BC 13Similar
Q2 13:31
3RD & 10
OWN 13
-9
64.2%
Grayson James sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the BC 4 Grayson James fumbled, recovered by BC Grayson James , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 13:21
4TH & 19
OWN 4
+30
63.6%
Liam Connor punt for 30 yds , Ryland Gandy returns for no gain to the BC 34 , returns for no gain to the BC 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 36 yds · 3:5640% → 39%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-2
59.7%
Derrick Davis Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the PITT 6Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 6
-2
59.7%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Derrick Davis Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the PITT 4Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 4
+18
59.7%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 18 yds to the PITT 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
59.7%
Derrick Davis Jr. run for 1 yd to the PITT 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 23
0
59.7%
Nate Yarnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 23
+14
59.7%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 14 yds to the PITT 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
59.7%
Derrick Davis Jr. run for 4 yds to the PITT 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+3
59.7%
David Lynch pass complete to Raphael Williams Jr. for 3 yds to the PITT 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 44
0
59.7%
David Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:04
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
60.8%
Caleb Junko punt for 38 yds, downed at the BC 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 3:0065% → 66%
Q2 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
65.2%
Kye Robichaux run for 1 yd to the BC 35Similar
Q2 13:21
2ND & 9
OWN 35
-3
65.2%
Grayson James sacked by Jimmy Scott for a loss of 3 yards to the BC 32Similar
Q2 13:21
3RD & 12
OWN 32
+16
64.4%
Grayson James run for 16 yds to the BC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
66.3%
Grayson James pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:21
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
66.1%
Grayson James pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:21
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+5
65.1%
Grayson James pass complete to Johnathan Montague Jr. for 5 yds to the PITT 47Similar
Q2 10:21
4TH & 5
OPP 47
0
66.0%
Liam Connor punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 2:1434% → 31%
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-3
65.9%
Nate Yarnell sacked by Donovan Ezeiruaku for a loss of 3 yards to the PITT 10Similar
Q2 10:21
2ND & 13
OWN 10
+3
66.1%
Juelz Goff run for 3 yds to the PITT 13Similar
Q2 10:21
3RD & 10
OWN 13
+12
66.8%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 12 yds to the PITT 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
65.7%
Raphael Williams Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the PITT 22Similar
Q2 10:21
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
66.1%
Nate Yarnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:21
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
66.8%
Nate Yarnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:07
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+4
68.7%
Caleb Junko punt for 43 yds , Isaiah Farris returns for 4 yds to the BC 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 9TD
3 plays · 56 yds · 1:3269% → 78%
Q2 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
69.1%
Jordan McDonald run for 1 yd to the BC 45Similar
Q2 8:07
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+53
68.9%
Grayson James pass complete to Reed Harris for 53 yds to the PITT 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
77.8%
Kye Robichaux run for 2 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 10TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:3924% → 34%
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
75.8%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Raphael Williams Jr. for 9 yds to the PITT 34Similar
Q2 6:35
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+6
74.5%
Derrick Davis Jr. run for 6 yds to the PITT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
75.2%
Derrick Davis Jr. run for 12 yds to the BC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+23
74.4%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Daejon Reynolds for 23 yds Daejon Reynolds fumbled, recovered by PITT return for 0 yds for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
72.9%
Nate Yarnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:35
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+15
73.3%
YARNELL, Nate pass deep to the right incomplete intended for JOHNSON, Kenny thrown to the BC5. PENALTY BC Pass Interference on BROWN, Bryquice enforced half the distance from the goal, 15 yards to the BC10 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
72.8%
Pittsburgh Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BC 15Similar
Q2 6:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
+4
73.4%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Juelz Goff for 4 yds to the BC 11Similar
Q2 6:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
73.2%
Nate Yarnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
66.0%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 11 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:1869% → 69%
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
69.0%
Jordan McDonald run for 11 yds to the BC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
69.8%
Jordan McDonald run for 1 yd to the BC 37Similar
Q2 3:56
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+5
69.5%
Grayson James pass complete to Dino Tomlin for 5 yds to the BC 42Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+3
69.6%
Grayson James pass complete to Kamari Morales for 3 yds to the BC 45Similar
Q2 1:38
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
68.9%
Liam Connor punt for 49 yds, downed at the PITT 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 12INT TD
8 plays · 54 yds · 1:0531% → 24%
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
69.2%
Nate Yarnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+2
69.6%
Juelz Goff run for 2 yds to the PITT 8Similar
Q2 1:26
3RD & 8
OWN 8
+27
70.4%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 27 yds to the PITT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
67.9%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Juelz Goff for 10 yds to the PITT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
66.5%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 15 yds to the BC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
64.7%
Nate Yarnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-55
76.2%
Nate Yarnell pass intercepted Ty Clemons return for 55 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 13FG
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:3324% → 25%
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-10
75.9%
YARNELL, Nate pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for WILLIAMS JR., Raphael thrown to the BC20. PENALTY PITT Holding on MONTGOMERY, Isaiah enforced 10 yards from the BC45 to the PITT45 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 20
OWN 45
+21
78.5%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 21 yds to the BC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
74.4%
Pittsburgh Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Nate Yarnell) to the BC 38Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 15
OPP 39
+57
74.6%
Ben Sauls 57 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 14DOWNS
9 plays · 40 yds · 3:5075% → 77%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
74.8%
Kye Robichaux run for 10 yds to the BC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
75.0%
Kye Robichaux run for 11 yds to the BC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
76.1%
Grayson James pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+5
75.8%
Grayson James pass complete to Kye Robichaux for 5 yds to the PITT 49Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+6
75.1%
Grayson James run for 6 yds to the PITT 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
76.3%
Kye Robichaux run for 1 yd to the PITT 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 42
0
76.2%
Grayson James pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 42
+7
75.3%
Grayson James pass complete to Lewis Bond for 7 yds to the PITT 35Similar
Q3 11:10
4TH & 2
OPP 35
0
77.1%
Grayson James pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 15TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 3:2024% → 41%
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
76.0%
Juelz Goff run for 2 yds to the PITT 37Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
75.8%
Nate Yarnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:10
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+16
76.5%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 16 yds to the BC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
74.3%
Boston College Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Cam Horsley) to the BC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+17
73.2%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 17 yds to the BC 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-2
72.8%
Juelz Goff run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 15Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 12
OPP 15
+10
73.3%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 10 yds to the BC 5Similar
Q3 7:50
3RD & 2
OPP 5
+5
59.5%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 5 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 16TD
10 plays · 83 yds · 5:1265% → 82%
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+16
65.1%
Kye Robichaux run for 16 yds to the BC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
65.5%
JAMES, Grayson pass deep to the left incomplete intended for HARRIS, Reed thrown to the PITT19. PENALTY BC Holding on MORALES, Kamari PITT Pass Interference on MCMILLON, Donovan , Offsetting penalties [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
65.5%
Jordan McDonald run for 5 yds to the BC 38Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+15
67.4%
JAMES, Grayson pass deep to the left incomplete intended for HARRIS, Reed thrown to the PITT17. PENALTY PITT Pass Interference on MCINTYRE, Javon enforced 15 yards to the PITT47 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
68.5%
Jordan McDonald run for 2 yds to the PITT 45Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 8
OPP 45
0
68.5%
Grayson James pass complete to Jordan McDonald for no gain to the PITT 45Similar
Q3 7:45
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+27
67.5%
Grayson James pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for 27 yds to the PITT 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-3
69.5%
Kye Robichaux run for a loss of 3 yards to the PITT 21Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 13
OPP 21
-7
69.0%
Grayson James sacked by Nate Matlack for a loss of 7 yards to the PITT 28Similar
Q3 2:33
3RD & 20
OPP 28
+28
82.2%
Grayson James pass complete to Reed Harris for 28 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2619% → 16%
Q3 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
81.2%
Juelz Goff run for 3 yds to the PITT 28Similar
Q3 2:33
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
80.6%
Nate Yarnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:33
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-1
82.0%
Nate Yarnell run for a loss of 1 yard to the PITT 27 Nate Yarnell fumbled, recovered by PITTSimilar
Q3 1:07
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
83.9%
Caleb Junko punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Farris at the BC 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1784% → 84%
Q3 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
83.5%
Grayson James pass complete to Lewis Bond for 5 yds to the BC 34Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+2
84.6%
Jordan McDonald run for 2 yds to the BC 36Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 36
0
84.4%
Grayson James pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:50
4TH & 3
OWN 36
0
83.8%
Liam Connor punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:0917% → 14%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
83.2%
Nate Yarnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-2
83.6%
Nate Yarnell sacked by Donovan Ezeiruaku for a loss of 2 yards to the PITT 31Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 12
OWN 31
0
85.2%
Nate Yarnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:41
4TH & 12
OWN 31
0
86.2%
Caleb Junko punt for 52 yds , Isaiah Farris returns for no gain to the BC 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0985% → 84%
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
84.7%
Grayson James pass complete to Kamari Morales for 6 yds to the BC 23Similar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 4
OWN 23
0
84.9%
Grayson James pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:41
3RD & 4
OWN 23
0
83.9%
Grayson James pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:32
4TH & 4
OWN 23
0
84.2%
Liam Connor punt for 44 yds, downed at the PITT 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 21DOWNS
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2316% → 15%
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
83.8%
Allen Bryant run for 1 yd to the PITT 34Similar
Q4 12:32
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+8
83.9%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 8 yds to the PITT 42Similar
Q4 12:32
3RD & 1
OWN 42
-1
82.9%
Juelz Goff run for a loss of 1 yard to the PITT 41Similar
Q4 11:09
4TH & 2
OWN 41
-2
85.0%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the PITT 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 22TD
8 plays · 39 yds · 4:5788% → 98%
Q4 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
87.5%
Kye Robichaux run for 4 yds to the PITT 35Similar
Q4 11:09
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+6
87.7%
Kye Robichaux run for 6 yds to the PITT 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
87.7%
Kye Robichaux run for 2 yds to the PITT 27Similar
Q4 11:09
2ND & 8
OPP 27
-1
87.7%
Grayson James pass complete to Jordan McDonald for a loss of 1 yard to the PITT 28Similar
Q4 11:09
3RD & 9
OPP 28
+5
87.0%
Grayson James pass complete to Luke McLaughlin for 5 yds to the PITT 23Similar
Q4 11:09
4TH & 4
OPP 23
+5
86.0%
Grayson James pass complete to Lewis Bond for 5 yds to the PITT 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
87.7%
Kye Robichaux run for 3 yds to the PITT 15Similar
Q4 6:12
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+15
97.7%
Grayson James pass complete to Kamari Morales for 15 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 23TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:133% → 9%
Q4 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.9%
Nate Yarnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:12
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
97.0%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Raphael Williams Jr. for 15 yds to the PITT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-3
96.7%
Nate Yarnell sacked by Donovan Ezeiruaku for a loss of 3 yards to the PITT 37Similar
Q4 6:12
2ND & 13
OWN 37
0
97.0%
Nate Yarnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:12
3RD & 13
OWN 37
+29
97.0%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 29 yds to the BC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
96.3%
Nate Yarnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:12
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
96.3%
Nate Yarnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:34
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+5
97.6%
Boston College Penalty, Offsides (Quintayvious Hutchins) to the BC 29Similar
Q4 4:34
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+14
97.4%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 14 yds to the BC 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
91.5%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 15 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 2:1096% → 97%
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
95.5%
Kye Robichaux run for no gain to the PITT 41Similar
Q4 3:59
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
95.5%
Kye Robichaux run for no gain to the PITT 41Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+1
96.9%
Kye Robichaux run for 1 yd to the PITT 40Similar
Q4 1:49
4TH & 9
OPP 40
0
96.6%
Liam Connor punt for 30 yds, downed at the PITT 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 25DOWNS
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:213% → 2%
Q4 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
96.9%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Jake Overman for 4 yds to the PITT 14Similar
Q4 1:39
2ND & 6
OWN 14
0
96.8%
Nate Yarnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:23
3RD & 6
OWN 14
-8
97.5%
Nate Yarnell sacked by Owen Stoudmire for a loss of 8 yards to the PITT 6Similar
Q4 1:18
4TH & 14
OWN 6
0
97.8%
Nate Yarnell pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 26END OF GAME
2 plays · -6 yds · 1:1898% → 98%
Q4 1:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-3
97.6%
[SG] Kneel down by JAMES, Grayson at PITT9 (team loss of 3).Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-3
97.8%
[SG] Kneel down by JAMES, Grayson at PITT12 (team loss of 3), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:50
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 5 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK)
-13.8
TD · Q3 2:33
Grayson James pass complete to Reed Harris for 28 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK)
+13.1
TD · Q2 0:33
Nate Yarnell pass intercepted Ty Clemons return for 55 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK)
+11.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com