Try the model
SMU

SMU 33 at Virginia 7

UVA
2024 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2024 · Scott Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UVA
modelUVA aheadSMU aheadconfidence bandkey playUVA scoreSMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:13 · Isaac Pearson punt for 55 yds , Ethan Davies returns for 13 yds to the UVA 46
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+58.0+29.00−29.0−58.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 39Home team on offense−2.6Pregame prior−24.2Score differential−0.8Garbage-time factor−0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:58: Brashard Smith run for 4 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK) — SMU win probability +1.8 pts (now 77%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:52: Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 17 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK) — SMU win probability +13.2 pts (now 86%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 1:25: Collin Rogers 35 yd FG GOOD — SMU win probability +1.9 pts (now 90%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 10:12: Collin Rogers 39 yd FG GOOD — SMU win probability +4.8 pts (now 93%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 10:12: Timeout Virginia, clock 10:12 — UVA win probability +2.1 pts (now 9%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UVA made the numbers' call on 9 of 12SMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 13:08SMU 4th & 5 at UVA 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 74.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:50UVA 4th & 1 at UVA 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.5%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:33UVA 4th & 7 at UVA 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.5%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:13SMU 4th & 1 at SMU 12, up 7
    Close callPunted · 72.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.8%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:29UVA 4th & 6 at SMU 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    27.0%−0.5
    36% to make
    Punt
    27.1%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:55SMU 4th & 7 at UVA 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.2%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.3%
    54% to make
    Punt
    72.7%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:41UVA 4th & 3 at SMU 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    27.5%−1.4
    34% to make
    Punt
    27.7%−1.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:14UVA 4th & 6 at SMU 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.4%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.5%
    68% to make
    Punt
    23.9%−4.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:04UVA 4th & 10 at UVA 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%−0.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.5%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:25SMU 4th & 9 at UVA 18, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.8%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.6%
    79% to make
    Punt
    76.5%−5.2
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:18UVA 4th & 20 at UVA 28, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.2%−1.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:47UVA 4th & 14 at UVA 33, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.8%−1.8
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:12SMU 4th & 22 at UVA 22, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.7%−2.5
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.2%
    72% to make
    Punt
    81.9%−5.4
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:08UVA 4th & 10 at UVA 35, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.9%−1.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.2%
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:38UVA 4th & 8 at SMU 18, down 20
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.0 ptsWent for it · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.9%−1.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    7.9%
    79% to make
    Punt
    1.6%−6.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:20UVA 4th & 12 at UVA 23, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:16UVA 4th & 4 at SMU 4, down 26
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%
    93% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UVA made the numbers' call on 0 of 1SMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 7:58SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:52SMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 12:21SMU Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 4:16UVA Touchdown, down 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.6%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:42SMU Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 1:4378% → 77%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
22.2%
Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 3 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q1 14:26
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+19
22.4%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Moochie Dixon for 19 yds to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
22.5%
Brashard Smith run for 2 yds to the SMU 49Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+3
22.6%
Brashard Smith run for 3 yds to the UVA 48Similar
Q1 13:16
3RD & 5
OPP 48
0
22.8%
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to Key'Shawn SmithSimilar
Q1 13:08
4TH & 5
OPP 48
0
22.9%
Isaac Pearson punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UVA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 3:1023% → 25%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
23.1%
Anthony Colandrea run for a loss of 1 yard to the UVA 19Similar
Q1 12:34
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+4
23.3%
Kobe Pace run for 4 yds to the UVA 23Similar
Q1 11:50
3RD & 7
OWN 23
-4
23.5%
Anthony Colandrea run for 6 yds to the UVA 29 Virginia Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tyler Neville) to the UVA 19Similar
Q1 11:39
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+13
23.6%
(11:42) No Huddle-Shotgun Colandrea,Anthony pass incomplete short left to Fields,Malachi thrown to UVA35, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY SMU Pass Interference (Harmon,Deuce) 13 yards from UVA19 to UVA32, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
23.9%
Kobe Pace run for 6 yds to the UVA 38Similar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+1
24.3%
Anthony Colandrea run for 1 yd to the UVA 39Similar
Q1 10:36
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+2
24.4%
Kobe Pace run for 2 yds to the UVA 41Similar
Q1 9:50
4TH & 1
OWN 41
0
24.7%
Daniel Sparks punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Roderick Daniels Jr. at the SMU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3TD
11 plays · 78 yds · 1:4775% → 77%
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
24.6%
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to Brashard SmithSimilar
Q1 9:38
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+3
24.7%
Brashard Smith run for 3 yds to the SMU 25Similar
Q1 9:09
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+12
25.1%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 12 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
24.8%
PENALTY SMU False Start (Clark,Jakai) 5 yards from SMU37 to SMU32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:50
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+6
25.1%
Brashard Smith run for 6 yds to the SMU 38Similar
Q1 8:41
2ND & 9
OWN 38
-5
24.9%
PENALTY SMU False Start (Williams,PJ) 5 yards from SMU38 to SMU33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:22
2ND & 14
OWN 33
+52
25.3%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Moochie Dixon for 52 yds to the UVA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+11
24.5%
Brashard Smith run for 11 yds to the UVA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
22.7%
Brashard Smith run for 4 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:1023% → 23%
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
23.1%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Tyler Neville for 12 yds to the UVA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
23.4%
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Xavier BrownSimilar
Q1 7:01
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-1
23.4%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Kameron Courtney for a loss of 1 yard to the UVA 36Similar
Q1 6:30
3RD & 11
OWN 36
-5
23.1%
PENALTY UVA False Start (Steen,Blake) 5 yards from UVA36 to UVA31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:13
3RD & 16
OWN 31
+9
23.0%
Anthony Colandrea run for 9 yds to the UVA 40Similar
Q1 5:33
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
23.3%
Daniel Sparks punt for 57 yds , Roderick Daniels Jr. returns for no gain to the SMU 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:1376% → 76%
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
23.8%
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to Jordan HudsonSimilar
Q1 5:16
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+6
23.9%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 6 yds to the SMU 9Similar
Q1 4:32
3RD & 4
OWN 9
+3
24.2%
Brashard Smith run for 3 yds to the SMU 12Similar
Q1 4:13
4TH & 1
OWN 12
+13
24.4%
Isaac Pearson punt for 55 yds , Ethan Davies returns for 13 yds to the UVA 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 6DOWNS
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:3324% → 24%
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
23.9%
Anthony Colandrea run for 11 yds to the SMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
24.3%
Kobe Pace run for 1 yd to the SMU 42Similar
Q1 3:13
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+3
24.3%
Kobe Pace run for 3 yds to the SMU 39Similar
Q1 2:33
3RD & 6
OPP 39
0
24.8%
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Kobe PaceSimilar
Q1 2:29
4TH & 6
OPP 39
-9
24.3%
Anthony Colandrea sacked by Jared Harrison-Hunte for a loss of 9 yards to the SMU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7MISSED FG
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:2477% → 76%
Q1 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
23.3%
Moochie Dixon run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 1:56
2ND & 8
50
+16
23.1%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 16 yds to the UVA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
22.9%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 4 yds to the UVA 30Similar
Q1 1:12
2ND & 6
OPP 30
-5
22.8%
PENALTY SMU False Start 5 yards from UVA30 to UVA35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:50
2ND & 11
OPP 35
+1
23.0%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the UVA 34Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+3
23.3%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to LJ Johnson Jr. for 3 yds to the UVA 31Similar
Q2 14:55
4TH & 7
OPP 31
+48
23.8%
Collin Rogers 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 8MISSED FG
16 plays · 45 yds · 5:3424% → 28%
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
24.3%
Xavier Brown run for no gain to the UVA 31Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
24.2%
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to JR WilsonSimilar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+11
24.0%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malachi Fields for 11 yds to the UVA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
25.1%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Tyler Neville for 5 yds to the UVA 47Similar
Q2 13:19
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+6
25.5%
Kobe Pace run for 6 yds to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
25.8%
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Malachi FieldsSimilar
Q2 12:47
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+4
25.6%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Xavier Brown for 4 yds to the SMU 43Similar
Q2 12:25
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+3
27.8%
Kobe Pace run for 3 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q2 11:41
4TH & 3
OPP 40
+12
27.5%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Tyler Neville for 12 yds to the SMU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
29.4%
Kobe Pace run for 1 yd to the SMU 27Similar
Q2 10:12
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+5
29.8%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Kobe Pace for 5 yds to the SMU 22Similar
Q2 9:36
3RD & 4
OPP 22
+3
29.0%
Noah Vaughn run for 3 yds to the SMU 19Similar
Q2 9:16
4TH & 1
OPP 19
-5
28.3%
(09:20) No Huddle-Shotgun Pace,Kobe rush middle for 2 yards gain to the SMU17 (Walker,Ahmad; Jefferson,Jonathan) PENALTY UVA Illegal Substitution 5 yards from SMU19 to SMU24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:14
4TH & 6
OPP 24
+41
28.4%
Will Bettridge 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9TD
11 plays · 76 yds · 3:1873% → 86%
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
26.8%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the SMU 26Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+8
28.6%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 8 yds to the SMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
28.4%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 11 yds to the SMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
26.8%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to LJ Johnson Jr. for 9 yds to the UVA 46Similar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 1
OPP 46
0
26.1%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the UVA 46Similar
Q2 7:18
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+7
26.7%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 7 yds to the UVA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
26.5%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the UVA 36Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+19
26.5%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 19 yds to the UVA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
13.7%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 17 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:4012% → 11%
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
12.0%
Noah Vaughn run for 2 yds to the UVA 27Similar
Q2 5:08
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
11.8%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Sackett Wood Jr. for 3 yds to the UVA 30Similar
Q2 4:38
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-5
11.6%
Anthony Colandrea sacked by Isaiah Smith for a loss of 5 yards to the UVA 25Similar
Q2 4:04
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
11.2%
Daniel Sparks punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Roderick Daniels Jr. at the SMU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 11FG
12 plays · 58 yds · 2:2885% → 90%
Q2 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
14.6%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 1 yd to the SMU 25Similar
Q2 3:36
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+15
14.6%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 15 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+22
13.7%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 22 yds to the UVA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
13.3%
Brashard Smith run for 4 yds to the UVA 34Similar
Q2 2:34
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+2
13.0%
Brashard Smith run for 2 yds to the UVA 32Similar
Q2 1:53
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+13
11.9%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 13 yds to the UVA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
11.4%
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to Matthew HibnerSimilar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+2
11.4%
Brashard Smith run for 2 yds to the UVA 17Similar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 8
OPP 17
-1
11.6%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Matthew Hibner for a loss of 1 yard to the UVA 18Similar
Q2 1:25
4TH & 9
OPP 18
+35
9.6%
Collin Rogers 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 1:0014% → 13%
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
13.9%
Anthony Colandrea run for no gain to the UVA 25Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
13.8%
Anthony Colandrea run for 13 yds to the UVA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
14.5%
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Andre Greene Jr.Similar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+2
14.0%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Donte Hawthorne for 2 yds to the UVA 40Similar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 8
OWN 40
-12
13.3%
Anthony Colandrea sacked by Isaiah Smith for a loss of 12 yards to the UVA 28Similar
Q2 0:18
4TH & 20
OWN 28
0
13.2%
Daniel Sparks punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Roderick Daniels Jr. at the SMU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
9.5%
Brashard Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 2:0215% → 14%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
14.8%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malachi Fields for 12 yds to the UVA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
15.1%
Noah Vaughn run for 2 yds to the UVA 39Similar
Q3 14:06
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+2
15.2%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Noah Vaughn for 2 yds to the UVA 41Similar
Q3 13:35
3RD & 6
OWN 41
-8
15.3%
Anthony Colandrea sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the UVA 33Similar
Q3 12:47
4TH & 14
OWN 33
+48
13.7%
Daniel Sparks punt for 43 yds , Roderick Daniels Jr. returns for 48 yds to the UVA 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 15FG
9 plays · 6 yds · 2:2388% → 93%
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
11.9%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the UVA 29Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 11
OPP 29
+20
11.9%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Matthew Hibner for 20 yds to the UVA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
11.3%
Brashard Smith run for 1 yd to the UVA 8Similar
Q3 11:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
11.2%
(11:19) PENALTY SMU False Start (Williams,PJ) 5 yards from UVA08 to UVA13. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
-15
11.4%
(11:01) No Huddle-Shotgun Smith,Brashard rush right for 13 yards gain to the UVA00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 10:56 PENALTY SMU Tripping (Osborne,Justin) 15 yards from UVA13 to UVA28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 28
0
11.4%
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to Brashard SmithSimilar
Q3 10:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 28
+6
11.6%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to LJ Johnson Jr. for 6 yds to the UVA 22Similar
Q3 10:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 22
+39
6.9%
Collin Rogers 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 1:569% → 8%
Q3 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
8.9%
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Malachi FieldsSimilar
Q3 9:53
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+12
8.5%
Noah Vaughn run for 12 yds to the UVA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+12
8.6%
Anthony Colandrea run for 12 yds to the UVA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
8.3%
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Kameron CourtneySimilar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
8.1%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:50
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
8.0%
Anthony Colandrea run for no gain to the UVA 35Similar
Q3 8:08
4TH & 10
OWN 35
+1
7.8%
Daniel Sparks punt for 45 yds , Roderick Daniels Jr. returns for 1 yd to the SMU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 17INT
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:1093% → 94%
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
6.6%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Moochie Dixon for 8 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 2
OWN 29
0
5.7%
Kevin Jennings pass intercepted Corey Thomas Jr. return for no gain to the SMU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 18DOWNS
6 plays · 8 yds · 2:566% → 4%
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
5.9%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Tyler Neville for 6 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q3 7:11
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+8
5.2%
Noah Vaughn run for 8 yds to the SMU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
5.1%
Noah Vaughn run for no gain to the SMU 20Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+3
5.1%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Suderian Harrison for 3 yds to the SMU 17Similar
Q3 5:17
3RD & 7
OPP 17
-1
4.1%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Suderian Harrison for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 18Similar
Q3 4:38
4TH & 8
OPP 18
-8
3.7%
Anthony Colandrea sacked by Jared Harrison-Hunte for a loss of 8 yards to the SMU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 19TD
15 plays · 74 yds · 7:1096% → 100%
Q3 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
3.8%
Brashard Smith run for 5 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q3 3:53
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+6
3.5%
Brashard Smith run for 6 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
3.3%
Brashard Smith run for no gain to the SMU 37Similar
Q3 2:43
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
3.2%
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to Stone EbySimilar
Q3 2:29
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+13
3.3%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
50
+4
2.4%
Brashard Smith run for 4 yds to the UVA 46Similar
Q3 1:05
2ND & 6
OPP 46
0
2.7%
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to Moochie DixonSimilar
Q3 0:52
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+10
2.7%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Moochie Dixon for 10 yds to the UVA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
2.6%
Kevin Jennings run for no gain to the UVA 36Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+4
2.6%
Brashard Smith run for 4 yds to the UVA 32Similar
Q4 14:05
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+31
2.4%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to LJ Johnson Jr. for 31 yds to the UVA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
2.3%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the UVA 1Similar
Q4 13:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
2.2%
Brashard Smith run for no gain to the UVA 1Similar
Q4 12:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.5%
Kevin Jennings run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:530% → 0%
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
0.2%
Anthony Colandrea sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the UVA 20Similar
Q4 11:31
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-3
0.1%
Anthony Colandrea sacked by Kori Roberson Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the UVA 17Similar
Q4 10:55
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+6
0.1%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Noah Vaughn for 6 yds to the UVA 23Similar
Q4 10:20
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
0.1%
Daniel Sparks punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Roderick Daniels Jr. at the SMU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 21FUMBLE
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:31100% → 100%
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
0.5%
Brashard Smith run for 4 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+2
0.4%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 2 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q4 8:41
3RD & 8
OWN 28
-1
0.3%
Kevin Jennings sacked by Billy Koudelka for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 27 Kevin Jennings fumbled, recovered by UVA Chico Bennett Jr. , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 22TD
10 plays · 27 yds · 4:200% → 1%
Q4 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
0.1%
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Chris TyreeSimilar
Q4 8:22
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+10
0.1%
Anthony Colandrea run for 10 yds to the SMU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
0.1%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Noah Vaughn for 8 yds to the SMU 9Similar
Q4 7:13
2ND & 2
OPP 9
-1
0.1%
Anthony Colandrea sacked by Alexander Kilgore for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 10Similar
Q4 6:36
3RD & 3
OPP 10
+6
0.1%
Noah Vaughn run for 6 yds to the SMU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-18
0.1%
Anthony Colandrea sacked by Mike Yoan Sandjo-Njiki for a loss of 18 yards to the SMU 22 Anthony Colandrea fumbled, recovered by UVA Anthony Colandrea , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 5:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 22
+15
0.1%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malachi Fields for 15 yds to the SMU 7Similar
Q4 4:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
0.1%
Anthony Colandrea run for 3 yds to the SMU 4Similar
Q4 4:16
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
1.3%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malachi Fields for 4 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 23TD
8 plays · 42 yds · 2:2199% → 100%
Q4 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
0.8%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the UVA 41Similar
Q4 3:21
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+17
0.7%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 17 yds to the UVA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
0.6%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the UVA 21Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+5
0.4%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 5 yds to the UVA 16Similar
Q4 1:42
3RD & 2
OPP 16
+16
0.1%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Matthew Hibner for 16 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 24END OF GAME
4 plays · 11 yds · 1:340% → 0%
Q4 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
0.0%
Noah Vaughn run for 4 yds to the UVA 29Similar
Q4 0:59
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
0.0%
Noah Vaughn run for 4 yds to the UVA 33Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
0.0%
Noah Vaughn run for 3 yds to the UVA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:52
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 17 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)
-13.2
FG · Q3 10:12
Collin Rogers 39 yd FG GOOD
-4.8
FG · Q3 10:12
Timeout Virginia, clock 10:12
+2.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com