2024 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2024 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadPITT aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scorePITT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:16 · Maurice Turner run for no gain to the PITT 1
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- FG · Q1 6:35: Brock Travelstead 41 yd FG GOOD — LOU win probability +0.5 pts (now 64%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 1:54: Isaac Brown run for 1 yd for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK) — LOU win probability +3.9 pts (now 69%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 12:33: Tyler Shough pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 15 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK) — LOU win probability +9.1 pts (now 80%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:58: Isaac Brown run for 15 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK) — LOU win probability +8.0 pts (now 91%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:05: Brock Travelstead 36 yd FG GOOD — LOU win probability +4.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5PITT made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
- Q1 6:35LOU 4th & 8 at PITT 23, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.9% before the snapGo for it68.8%−0.133% to convertField goalTheir call68.9%70% to makePunt67.9%−1.0average punt
- Q1 4:20PITT 4th & 19 at PITT 44, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.0% before the snapGo for it29.5%−0.911% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.3%average punt
- Q2 14:57PITT 4th & 1 at midfield, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call27.6%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt26.4%−1.2average punt
- Q2 9:45PITT 4th & 2 at PITT 49, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call18.1%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt16.8%−1.3average punt
- Q2 8:51LOU 4th & 14 at LOU 47, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.2% before the snapGo for it83.0%−1.719% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call84.7%average punt
- Q2 7:24PITT 4th & 12 at PITT 31, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.4% before the snapGo for it15.0%−2.522% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.5%average punt
- Q2 4:16LOU 4th & 1 at PITT 1, up 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call85.3%59% to convertField goal82.6%−2.894% to makePunt75.9%−9.5average punt
- Q2 2:17PITT 4th & 1 at PITT 36, down 24Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 8.8% before the snapGo for it9.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.0%−1.3average punt
- Q3 10:06PITT 4th & 10 at LOU 46, down 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snapGo for it0.9%−<0.130% to convertField goal0.9%−0.123% to makePuntTheir call1.0%average punt
- Q3 6:34LOU 4th & 4 at LOU 41, up 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snapGo for it99.4%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.4%average punt
- Q3 0:24LOU 4th & 9 at PITT 23, up 27Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.5%−0.130% to convertField goalTheir call99.7%70% to makePunt98.6%−1.1average punt
- Q4 13:36PITT 4th & 1 at PITT 32, down 30Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%−0.1average punt
- Q4 9:57PITT 4th & 2 at LOU 30, down 28Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%−<0.157% to convertField goal0.2%56% to makePunt0.1%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4PITT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 1:54LOU Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call73.4%97% to makeGo for two73.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:33LOU Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call78.8%97% to makeGo for two78.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:58LOU Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.6%97% to makeGo for two91.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 13:58LOU Touchdown, up 33 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.6%97% to makeGo for two98.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:58PITT Touchdown, down 28 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.6%97% to makeGo for two0.5%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartPITTDrive 1INT9 plays · 68 yds · 3:0236% → 37%
Q1 14:27
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
63.6%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Desmond Reid for 4 yds to the PITT 33Similar
Q1 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+26
63.6%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 26 yds to the LOU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:24
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+21
63.2%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Desmond Reid for 21 yds to the LOU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
63.1%
Eli Holstein pass intercepted, touchback. Stanquan Clark return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 2FG10 plays · 57 yds · 5:1764% → 64%
Q1 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
63.6%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Cataurus Hicks for 11 yds to the LOU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:38
2ND & 16
OWN 25
+16
63.4%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Duke Watson for 16 yds to the LOU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
63.8%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Kris Hughes for 3 yds to the LOU 44Similar
Q1 9:24
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+20
63.9%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Cataurus Hicks for 20 yds to the PITT 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
63.9%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 11 yds to the PITT 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 11
OPP 26
+3
63.7%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Cataurus Hicks for 3 yds to the PITT 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 3PUNT8 plays · 19 yds · 2:1336% → 35%
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-4
63.3%
Eli Holstein sacked by Ashton Gillotte for a loss of 4 yards to the PITT 49Similar
Q1 5:18
2ND & 14
OWN 49
-10
63.9%
(05:18) REID, Desmond rush up the middle for a gain of 28 yards to the LOU23 (PERRY, Ben), clock 05:09. PENALTY PIT Holding on MOORE, Terrence enforced 10 yards from the PIT49 to the PIT39 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 4:49
3RD & 24
OWN 39
+5
64.4%
(04:49) YARNELL, Nate pass short to the right complete for 10 yards to MUMPFIELD, Konata to the PIT49 (PURYEAR, Ramon;NICHOLSON, Tahveon), clock 04:43. PENALTY LOU Offsides on LOGAN, Tramel enforced 5 yards from the PIT39 to the PIT44 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 4:20
4TH & 19
OWN 44
0
64.8%
Caleb Junko punt for 38 yds , Ja'Corey Brooks returns for no gain to the LOU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 4TD5 plays · 82 yds · 2:1564% → 69%
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+23
64.0%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 23 yds to the LOU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 5DOWNS6 plays · 25 yds · 1:5432% → 32%
Q1 1:10
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+15
68.2%
(01:10) YARNELL, Nate pass short up the middle incomplete intended for REID, Desmond broken up by QUINN, T.J. at the PIT30; QB hurried by TELL, Dezmond, clock 01:06. PENALTY LOU Roughing the Passer on TELL, Dezmond enforced 15 yards from the PIT26 to the PIT41 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 0:37
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+6
67.9%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Desmond Reid for 6 yds to the PITT 47Similar
Q1 0:02
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+3
67.6%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 6TD6 plays · 50 yds · 2:1870% → 80%
PITTDrive 7DOWNS7 plays · 24 yds · 2:4322% → 21%
LOUDrive 8PUNT4 plays · -4 yds · 0:4983% → 82%
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-13
82.5%
Louisville Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Tyler Shough) to the LOU 38Similar
Q2 9:29
3RD & 23
OWN 38
+9
81.8%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Isaac Brown for 9 yds to the LOU 47Similar
Q2 8:51
4TH & 14
OWN 47
+3
81.5%
Brady Hodges punt for 38 yds , Desmond Reid returns for 3 yds to the PITT 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 9PUNT4 plays · -2 yds · 1:1920% → 19%
LOUDrive 10DOWNS8 plays · 66 yds · 2:5683% → 84%
PITTDrive 11INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0517% → 17%
LOUDrive 12TD1 play · 15 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3011% → 10%
LOUDrive 14FG13 plays · 42 yds · 1:5792% → 97%
PITTDrive 15END OF HALF1 play · 1 yds · 0:002% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 16TD3 plays · 75 yds · 0:5998% → 98%
PITTDrive 17PUNT10 plays · 29 yds · 3:502% → 1%
LOUDrive 18PUNT7 plays · 21 yds · 3:2499% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 19TD9 plays · 75 yds · 2:351% → 1%
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
99.4%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Jake Overman for 4 yds to the PITT 47Similar
Q3 5:44
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+14
99.4%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 14 yds to the LOU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:53
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+15
99.4%
(04:53) YARNELL, Nate pass deep to the right incomplete intended for JOHNSON, Nahki broken up by PERRY, Ben at the LOU4; QB hurried by TELL, Dezmond, clock 04:47. PENALTY LOU Pass Interference on PERRY, Ben enforced 15 yards to the LOU19 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 3:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
99.4%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 8 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 20FG9 plays · 37 yds · 3:32100% → 100%
Q3 3:17
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+13
99.6%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Cataurus Hicks for 13 yds to the PITT 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
99.6%
Pittsburgh Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the PITT 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-2
99.6%
Tyler Shough sacked by Francis Brewu for a loss of 2 yards to the PITT 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 21PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:380% → 0%
Q4 14:58
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+7
99.7%
David Lynch pass complete to Juelz Goff for 7 yds to the PITT 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 22SF2 plays · 1 yds · 0:51100% → 100%
PITTDrive 23INT8 plays · 43 yds · 2:510% → 0%
Q4 12:18
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+10
99.8%
(12:18) LYNCH, David pass to the left incomplete intended for OVERMAN, Jake thrown to the PIT50, clock 12:14. PENALTY LOU Holding on MCDONALD, Tamarion enforced 10 yards from the PIT35 to the PIT45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+17
99.8%
David Lynch pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 17 yds to the LOU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-3
99.8%
David Lynch sacked by Ashton Gillotte for a loss of 3 yards to the LOU 41Similar
Q4 11:01
2ND & 13
OPP 41
+6
99.8%
David Lynch pass complete to Jake Overman for 6 yds to the LOU 35Similar
Q4 10:34
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+5
99.8%
David Lynch pass complete to Allen Bryant for 5 yds to the LOU 30Similar
Q4 9:57
4TH & 2
OPP 30
+8
99.8%
David Lynch pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 8 yds to the LOU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
99.8%
David Lynch pass intercepted Corey Thornton return for no gain to the LOU 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 24END OF GAME16 plays · 80 yds · 8:52100% → 100%
Q4 7:14
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+10
99.9%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 10 yds to the LOU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-1
99.9%
(01:04) Kneel down by TEAM at PIT13 (team loss of 1), clock 00:59.Similar
Q4 0:32
2ND & 11
OPP 13
-1
100.0%
(00:32) Kneel down by TEAM at PIT14 (team loss of 1), clock 00:27.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 12:33
Tyler Shough pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 15 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)
+9.1
TD · Q2 3:58
Isaac Brown run for 15 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)
+8
FG · Q2 0:05
Brock Travelstead 36 yd FG GOOD
+4.5