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VT

Virginia Tech 28 at Duke 31

DUKE
2024 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2024 · Wallace Wade Stadium
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Win probability · DUKE
modelDUKE aheadVT aheadconfidence bandkey playDUKE scoreVT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:17 · William Watson III pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 6 yds to the VT 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+20.0+10.00−10.0−20.0Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 180Home team on offense+10.8Pregame prior−0.2Garbage-time factor+3.5Score differential+0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.0Blowout margin+1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:45: Ayden Greene run for 21 yds for a TD (John Love KICK) — VT win probability +7.7 pts (now 58%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:41: Maalik Murphy pass complete to Eli Pancol for 7 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK) — DUKE win probability +13.5 pts (now 56%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:52: Star Thomas run for 2 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK) — DUKE win probability +14.1 pts (now 74%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 3:24: Todd Pelino 42 yd FG GOOD — DUKE win probability +5.1 pts (now 86%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:19: Bhayshul Tuten run for 29 yds for a TD (W. Watson III Run For Two-point Conversion) — VT win probability +29.6 pts (now 43%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
DUKE made the numbers' call on 5 of 7VT made the numbers' call on 10 of 12
  1. Q4 0:10DUKE 4th & 1 at VT 41, tied
    Numbers favored field goal by 8.7 ptsPunted · 60.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.3%−3.0
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    63.3%
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    54.6%−8.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:05VT 4th & 4 at VT 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.5%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:32VT 4th & 16 at VT 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.1%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:41VT 4th & 2 at VT 34, down 14
    Close callPunted · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.7%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:45DUKE 4th & 4 at VT 44, up 14
    Close callPunted · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    54.6%−1.2
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    55.3%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:07DUKE 4th & 8 at DUKE 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.6%−0.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.2%
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:35VT 4th & 4 at DUKE 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    46.9%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:55VT 4th & 5 at DUKE 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.0%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    47.9%−5.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:46VT 4th & 4 at DUKE 47, down 4
    Close callPunted · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.1%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:24DUKE 4th & 5 at DUKE 25, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.5%−0.8
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:29VT 4th & 6 at VT 15, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.9%−0.8
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:26VT 4th & 2 at DUKE 34, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    22.8%−1.8
    47% to make
    Punt
    22.0%−2.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:24DUKE 4th & 15 at VT 25, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.5%−1.6
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.1%
    66% to make
    Punt
    75.2%−5.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:22VT 4th & 7 at DUKE 21, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.3%−0.9
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.3%
    74% to make
    Punt
    4.2%−7.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:22DUKE 4th & 11 at DUKE 23, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.0%−2.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:51VT 4th & 1 at DUKE 33, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    11.2%−2.3
    49% to make
    Punt
    10.3%−3.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:25DUKE 4th & 10 at DUKE 35, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.4%−4.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.9%
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:55VT 4th & 10 at VT 39, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.8%
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:17VT 4th & 13 at VT 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.0%
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.0%−1.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
DUKE made the numbers' call on 4 of 4VT made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 12:55DUKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:40DUKE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:28VT Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:45VT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:41DUKE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:52DUKE Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:19VT Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 1.1 ptsWent for two · converted
    Kick
    28.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    27.7%−1.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
DUKEDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:0263% → 61%
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
50
+1
63.4%
Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the VT 49Similar
Q4 1:06
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+3
63.4%
Star Thomas run for 3 yds to the VT 46Similar
Q4 0:16
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+5
62.9%
Star Thomas run for 5 yds to the VT 41Similar
Q4 0:10
4TH & 1
OPP 41
0
60.5%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the VT 13 , Jaylin Lane returns for no gain to the VT 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:3260% → 60%
Q1 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+14
39.8%
Jaylin Lane run for 14 yds to the VT 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
40.0%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Bhayshul Tuten for 1 yd to the VT 29Similar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+5
40.2%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 5 yds to the VT 34Similar
Q1 13:11
3RD & 4
OWN 34
0
40.3%
Collin Schlee pass incomplete to Stephen GosnellSimilar
Q1 13:05
4TH & 4
OWN 34
0
40.4%
Peter Moore punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Que'Sean Brown at the DUKE 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 3TD
1 play · 86 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+86
41.2%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Eli Pancol for 86 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 3:1559% → 56%
Q1 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
41.2%
Collin Schlee run for 7 yds to the VT 32Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+15
41.4%
(12:21) No Huddle-Shotgun Schlee,Collin rush right for 3 yards loss to the VaTech29 (Howard,Alex) PENALTY Duke Face Mask (Howard,Alex) 15 yards from VaTech32 to VaTech47, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
41.6%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 5 yds to the DUKE 48Similar
Q1 11:22
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+3
41.8%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 3 yds to the DUKE 45Similar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+1
42.1%
Collin Schlee run for 1 yd to the DUKE 44Similar
Q1 10:19
4TH & 1
OPP 44
-10
42.7%
(10:23) Shotgun Schlee,Collin rush right for 4 yards gain to the Duke40 (Moore,Terry) PENALTY VaTech Holding (Moore,Braelin) 10 yards from Duke44 to VaTech46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:00
4TH & 11
OWN 46
-5
43.4%
(10:00) PENALTY VaTech False Start (Pennix,Jonathan) 5 yards from VaTech46 to VaTech41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:32
4TH & 16
OWN 41
0
43.9%
Peter Moore punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 5TD
3 plays · 80 yds · 0:4744% → 47%
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
43.8%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Sahmir HagansSimilar
Q1 9:17
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
43.9%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Jordan Moore for 3 yds to the DUKE 23Similar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+77
46.9%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Eli Pancol for 77 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:4453% → 51%
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
46.6%
Jaylin Lane run for a loss of 1 yard to the VT 25Similar
Q1 7:53
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+8
47.6%
Collin Schlee run for 8 yds to the VT 33Similar
Q1 7:26
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+1
48.0%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Bhayshul Tuten for 1 yd to the VT 34Similar
Q1 6:41
4TH & 2
OWN 34
+19
49.0%
Peter Moore punt for 47 yds , Que'Sean Brown returns for 19 yds to the DUKE 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:4751% → 51%
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
50.5%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Eli Pancol for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
50
+6
51.1%
Star Thomas run for 6 yds to the VT 44Similar
Q1 5:58
2ND & 4
OPP 44
0
51.5%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Eli PancolSimilar
Q1 5:52
3RD & 4
OPP 44
0
51.3%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:45
4TH & 4
OPP 44
0
51.1%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Lane at the VT 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 8TD
3 plays · 85 yds · 1:1150% → 53%
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
50.0%
Jeremiah Coney run for 5 yds to the VT 20Similar
Q1 5:05
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+15
50.6%
(05:10) No Huddle-Shotgun Schlee,Collin rush right for 3 yards loss to the VaTech17 (Nicholas,Ozzie) PENALTY Duke Face Mask (Nicholas,Ozzie) 15 yards from VaTech20 to VaTech35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+65
46.8%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Ali Jennings for 65 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:1248% → 47%
Q1 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
47.5%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 1 yd to the DUKE 26Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
47.8%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Peyton Jones for 1 yd to the DUKE 27Similar
Q1 3:13
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
47.7%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Jake TaylorSimilar
Q1 3:07
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
47.4%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Lane at the VT 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 10DOWNS
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:2652% → 51%
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
47.8%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 5 yds to the VT 40Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+4
47.0%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 4 yds to the VT 44Similar
Q1 2:09
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+2
47.3%
Collin Schlee run for 2 yds to the VT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
47.5%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 1 yd to the VT 47Similar
Q1 1:08
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+5
48.2%
Collin Schlee run for 5 yds to the DUKE 48Similar
Q1 0:39
3RD & 4
OPP 48
0
48.0%
Collin Schlee pass incomplete to Ayden GreeneSimilar
Q1 0:35
4TH & 4
OPP 48
0
49.0%
Collin Schlee pass incomplete to Da'Quan FeltonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 11INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
51.1%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Jordan MooreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 12TD
8 plays · 64 yds · 2:3451% → 58%
Q1 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
49.0%
Collin Schlee pass incomplete to Da'Quan FeltonSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+7
49.5%
Collin Schlee run for 7 yds to the VT 43Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 3
OWN 43
-10
48.7%
(14:58) Shotgun Tuten,Bhayshul rush middle for 2 yards gain to the VaTech45 (Moore,Terry) PENALTY VaTech Holding (Moore,Braelin) 10 yards from VaTech43 to VaTech33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:18
3RD & 13
OWN 33
+17
51.6%
William Watson III pass complete to Ali Jennings for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:52
1ST & 10
50
+2
49.6%
Jeremiah Coney run for 2 yds to the DUKE 48Similar
Q2 13:19
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+27
50.0%
William Watson III pass complete to Ali Jennings for 27 yds to the DUKE 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
42.3%
Ayden Greene run for 21 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13INT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:2947% → 46%
Q2 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
46.6%
Star Thomas run for 3 yds to the DUKE 29Similar
Q2 12:06
2ND & 7
OWN 29
0
46.8%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Eli PancolSimilar
Q2 12:03
3RD & 7
OWN 29
0
46.1%
Maalik Murphy pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 14FG
9 plays · 29 yds · 3:5957% → 59%
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
43.0%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 9 yds to the DUKE 27Similar
Q2 11:26
2ND & 1
OPP 27
+2
42.5%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 2 yds to the DUKE 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
42.6%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 8 yds to the DUKE 17Similar
Q2 10:22
2ND & 2
OPP 17
-1
42.7%
Bhayshul Tuten run for a loss of 1 yard to the DUKE 18Similar
Q2 9:41
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+6
43.2%
William Watson III pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 6 yds to the DUKE 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
42.6%
Jaylin Lane run for 1 yd to the DUKE 11Similar
Q2 8:35
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+4
42.7%
William Watson III run for 4 yds to the DUKE 7Similar
Q2 7:58
3RD & 5
OPP 7
0
42.5%
William Watson III pass incomplete to Harrison Saint GermainSimilar
Q2 7:55
4TH & 5
OPP 7
+24
41.5%
John Love 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:0543% → 56%
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
43.1%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 2 yds to the DUKE 23Similar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+15
43.0%
(07:12) Shotgun Murphy,Maalik pass incomplete deep left to Hagans,Sahmir thrown to VaTech42 PENALTY VaTech Pass Interference (Jones,Jaylen) 15 yards from Duke23 to Duke38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
44.2%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Jordan MooreSimilar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+3
44.0%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Peyton Jones for 3 yds to the DUKE 35Similar
Q2 6:08
3RD & 13
OWN 35
+58
42.3%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Jordan Moore for 58 yds to the VT 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
55.8%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Eli Pancol for 7 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 16PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 3:4947% → 47%
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
53.0%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 1 yd to the VT 26Similar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+13
53.3%
William Watson III run for 13 yds to the VT 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-8
52.0%
William Watson III sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the VT 31Similar
Q2 3:41
2ND & 18
OWN 31
+1
54.2%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 1 yd to the VT 32Similar
Q2 2:58
3RD & 17
OWN 32
+15
55.7%
(03:01) No Huddle-Shotgun Watson III,William pass incomplete deep left to Felton,Da'Quan thrown to Duke40 PENALTY Duke Pass Interference (Pickett,Joshua) 15 yards from VaTech32 to VaTech47, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
51.7%
Ayden Greene run for a loss of 1 yard to the VT 46Similar
Q2 2:09
2ND & 11
OWN 46
+7
53.7%
William Watson III pass complete to Ali Jennings for 7 yds to the DUKE 47Similar
Q2 1:57
3RD & 4
OPP 47
0
51.7%
William Watson III pass incomplete to Jaylin LaneSimilar
Q2 1:46
4TH & 4
OPP 47
0
53.5%
Peter Moore punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:1855% → 53%
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
54.8%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Jordan MooreSimilar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
54.6%
Star Thomas run for 5 yds to the DUKE 25Similar
Q2 1:32
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
54.3%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Eli PancolSimilar
Q2 1:24
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
53.2%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the VT 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 18FUMBLE
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:0145% → 43%
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+18
55.4%
William Watson III pass complete to Stephen Gosnell for 18 yds to the DUKE 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
52.6%
William Watson III pass complete to Benji Gosnell for 9 yds to the DUKE 25Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+11
52.5%
Jeremiah Coney run for 11 yds to the DUKE 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-2
52.6%
William Watson III run for a loss of 2 yards to the DUKE 16Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 12
OPP 16
-9
52.7%
William Watson III sacked by Kendy Charles for a loss of 9 yards to the DUKE 25Similar
Q2 0:17
3RD & 21
OPP 25
-13
56.7%
William Watson III sacked by Chandler Rivers for a loss of 13 yards to the DUKE 38 William Watson III fumbled, recovered by VT Chandler Rivers , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
55.7%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Jordan MooreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 20END OF HALF
3 plays · -10 yds · 0:0445% → 44%
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
55.2%
William Watson III pass incomplete to Benji GosnellSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 43
-10
56.1%
William Watson III sacked for a loss of 10 yards to the VT 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 21TD
9 plays · 74 yds · 2:5755% → 74%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-3
55.1%
Star Thomas run for a loss of 3 yards to the DUKE 23Similar
Q3 14:07
2ND & 13
OWN 23
+34
54.9%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 34 yds to the VT 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
58.6%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Eli Pancol for 6 yds to the VT 37Similar
Q3 13:23
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+18
58.8%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 18 yds to the VT 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
59.7%
Star Thomas run for 2 yds to the VT 17Similar
Q3 12:16
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+15
59.8%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 15 yds to the VT 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
73.9%
Star Thomas run for 2 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1229% → 26%
Q3 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-1
71.0%
Bhayshul Tuten run for a loss of 1 yard to the VT 10Similar
Q3 11:04
2ND & 11
OWN 10
+5
71.7%
William Watson III run for 5 yds to the VT 15Similar
Q3 10:36
3RD & 6
OWN 15
0
73.1%
William Watson III pass incomplete to Ali JenningsSimilar
Q3 10:29
4TH & 6
OWN 15
0
73.8%
Peter Moore punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Que'Sean Brown at the DUKE 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 23Uncategorized
5 plays · -6 yds · 2:0775% → 75%
Q3 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
75.0%
(10:29) No Huddle-Shotgun Murphy,Maalik pass incomplete deep right to Moore,Jordan thrown to VaTech32 PENALTY VaTech Offside (Fuga,Josh) 5 yards from Duke48 to VaTech47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:19
1ST & 5
OPP 47
+3
75.2%
Star Thomas run for 3 yds to the VT 44Similar
Q3 9:46
2ND & 2
OPP 44
0
75.9%
Star Thomas run for no gain to the VT 44Similar
Q3 9:08
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+1
76.0%
Peyton Jones run for 1 yd to the VT 43Similar
Q3 8:17
4TH & 1
OPP 43
-15
75.4%
Duke Penalty, unnecessary roughness (-15 Yards) to the DUKE 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 24INT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4029% → 26%
Q3 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-4
71.1%
William Watson III sacked for a loss of 4 yards to the DUKE 46Similar
Q3 7:33
2ND & 14
OPP 46
+10
72.9%
Jaylin Lane run for 10 yds to the DUKE 36Similar
Q3 7:02
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+2
71.8%
William Watson III pass complete to Miles Ellis for 2 yds to the DUKE 34Similar
Q3 6:26
4TH & 2
OPP 34
-37
74.2%
William Watson III pass intercepted Joshua Pickett return for 37 yds to the VT 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 25FG
6 plays · 6 yds · 2:5479% → 86%
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
79.0%
Star Thomas run for 4 yds to the VT 27Similar
Q3 5:38
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+7
79.9%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Jordan Moore for 7 yds to the VT 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-2
80.8%
Star Thomas run for a loss of 2 yards to the VT 22Similar
Q3 4:09
2ND & 12
OPP 22
+3
81.2%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 3 yds to the VT 25Similar
Q3 3:29
3RD & 15
OPP 25
0
81.1%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Que'Sean BrownSimilar
Q3 3:24
4TH & 15
OPP 25
+42
86.1%
Todd Pelino 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 26FG
12 plays · 54 yds · 4:5815% → 18%
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
84.7%
Jeremiah Coney run for 2 yds to the VT 27Similar
Q3 2:43
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
84.8%
Jeremiah Coney run for 2 yds to the VT 29Similar
Q3 1:58
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+15
85.3%
William Watson III run for 15 yds to the VT 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+21
84.5%
William Watson III pass complete to Ali Jennings for 21 yds to the DUKE 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
83.8%
William Watson III pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 2 yds to the DUKE 37Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 37
-2
86.5%
William Watson III sacked for a loss of 2 yards to the DUKE 39Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 14
OPP 39
+15
87.9%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun Watson III,William pass incomplete deep right to Gosnell,Stephen thrown to Duke07 PENALTY Duke Pass Interference (Diakite,Diassa) 15 yards from Duke39 to Duke24, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:39
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
85.2%
William Watson III run for no gain to the DUKE 24Similar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+3
86.1%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 3 yds to the DUKE 21Similar
Q4 13:26
3RD & 7
OPP 21
0
86.9%
William Watson III pass incomplete to Stephen GosnellSimilar
Q4 13:22
4TH & 7
OPP 21
+38
81.9%
John Love 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:4786% → 84%
Q4 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
85.6%
Star Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the DUKE 23Similar
Q4 12:32
2ND & 11
OWN 23
0
85.8%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Sahmir HagansSimilar
Q4 12:28
3RD & 11
OWN 23
0
85.0%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Que'Sean BrownSimilar
Q4 12:22
4TH & 11
OWN 23
+2
84.4%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 35 yds , Jaylin Lane returns for 2 yds to the VT 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 28TD
8 plays · 56 yds · 2:5718% → 43%
Q4 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
81.9%
William Watson III pass incomplete to Stephen GosnellSimilar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+9
82.5%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 9 yds to the DUKE 47Similar
Q4 11:47
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+5
82.3%
William Watson III run for 5 yds to the DUKE 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
82.5%
William Watson III pass incomplete to Ayden GreeneSimilar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-5
82.8%
William Watson III sacked by Ryan Smith for a loss of 5 yards to the DUKE 47Similar
Q4 10:22
3RD & 15
OPP 47
+14
87.8%
William Watson III pass complete to Harrison Saint Germain for 14 yds to the DUKE 33Similar
Q4 9:51
4TH & 1
OPP 33
+4
86.3%
William Watson III run for 4 yds to the DUKE 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
56.7%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 29 yds for a TD (W. Watson III Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 29PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:4969% → 66%
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
69.4%
Peyton Jones run for no gain to the DUKE 35Similar
Q4 8:34
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
69.2%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Jordan MooreSimilar
Q4 8:31
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
67.4%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Sahmir HagansSimilar
Q4 8:25
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
66.2%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Lane at the VT 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 30PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 3:2536% → 31%
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
64.3%
Bhayshul Tuten run for no gain to the VT 22Similar
Q4 7:47
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+1
65.2%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 1 yd to the VT 23Similar
Q4 7:10
3RD & 9
OWN 23
-5
65.8%
PENALTY VaTech False Start (Clements,Parker) 5 yards from VaTech23 to VaTech18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:40
3RD & 14
OWN 18
+21
67.8%
William Watson III pass complete to Ali Jennings for 21 yds to the VT 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
62.7%
William Watson III pass complete to Ali Jennings for 13 yds to the DUKE 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:46
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
63.6%
Bhayshul Tuten run for no gain to the VT 39Similar
Q4 5:01
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
65.9%
William Watson III pass incomplete to Benji GosnellSimilar
Q4 4:55
4TH & 10
OWN 39
0
69.0%
Peter Moore punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Que'Sean Brown at the DUKE 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 31FUMBLE
6 plays · 50 yds · 3:0573% → 89%
Q4 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
72.9%
Star Thomas run for 2 yds to the DUKE 20Similar
Q4 4:07
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+15
76.9%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Star Thomas for 15 yds to the DUKE 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
79.1%
Star Thomas run for 4 yds to the DUKE 39Similar
Q4 2:41
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+12
85.8%
Star Thomas run for 12 yds to the VT 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+33
88.3%
Star Thomas run for 33 yds to the VT 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-16
89.4%
Star Thomas run for a loss of 16 yards to the VT 32 Star Thomas fumbled, recovered by VT Cole NelsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 32Uncategorized
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:2128% → 20%
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
72.4%
William Watson III pass incomplete to Ali JenningsSimilar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
73.3%
William Watson III pass incomplete to Benji GosnellSimilar
Q4 1:24
3RD & 10
OWN 32
-3
76.8%
William Watson III sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the VT 29Similar
Q4 1:17
4TH & 13
OWN 29
+6
80.1%
William Watson III pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 6 yds to the VT 35Similar
Q4 1:17
4TH & 13
OWN 29
+15
80.1%
Duke Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Tre Freeman) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 33END OF GAME
2 plays · 20 yds · 0:0520% → 20%
Q4 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
79.6%
William Watson III pass incomplete to Stephen GosnellSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+6
79.9%
William Watson III run for 6 yds to the VT 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:19
Bhayshul Tuten run for 29 yds for a TD (W. Watson III Run For Two-point Conversion)
-29.6
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+20.1
TD · Q3 11:52
Star Thomas run for 2 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)
+14.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com