2024 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2024 · Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC)
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Win probability · CLEM
modelCLEM aheadCIT aheadconfidence bandkey playCLEM scoreCIT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:57 · Jack Weil punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Antonio Williams at the CLEM 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 8:10: Cade Klubnik pass complete to Antonio Williams for 30 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK) — CLEM win probability +0.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q1 3:17: Johnathan Bennett pass intercepted Payton Page return for 57 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK) — CLEM win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CIT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:49: Cade Klubnik pass complete to Bryant Wesco Jr. for 55 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK) — CLEM win probability +0.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:07: Jay Haynes run for 70 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK) — CLEM win probability +0.4 pts (now 100%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 13:13: Cade Klubnik pass complete to Antonio Williams for 9 yds for a TD (Hogan Morton KICK) — CLEM win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CLEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 4CIT made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 9:57CIT 4th & 7 at CLEM 22, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.7%−<0.136% to convertField goalTheir call0.7%72% to makePunt0.3%−0.4average punt
- Q2 13:22CIT 4th & 8 at CLEM 44, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snapGo for it1.2%−<0.134% to convertField goal1.1%−0.127% to makePuntTheir call1.2%average punt
- Q2 7:57CIT 4th & 6 at CIT 41, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snapGo for it0.8%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%average punt
- Q3 0:57CLEM 4th & 13 at CIT 15, up 35Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.118% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%83% to makePunt99.4%−0.4average punt
- Q4 14:48CIT 4th & 7 at CIT 28, down 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 12:29CLEM 4th & 3 at CIT 35, up 38Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call100.0%53% to convertField goal99.9%−0.145% to makePunt99.8%−0.2average punt
- Q4 11:19CLEM 4th & 8 at CIT 28, up 38Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.134% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%60% to makePunt99.6%−0.3average punt
- Q4 6:25CLEM 4th & 2 at CIT 4, up 31Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%50% to convertField goal99.8%−0.193% to makePunt99.4%−0.5average punt
- Q4 4:27CIT 4th & 10 at CIT 19, down 37Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
- Q4 0:20CIT 4th & 13 at CLEM 13, down 37Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−<0.117% to convertField goal0.0%85% to makePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLEM made the numbers' call on 7 of 7CIT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 8:10CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.3%97% to makeGo for two99.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:17CLEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.2%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:49CLEM Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:07CLEM Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:02CLEM Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 13:13CLEM Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:06CIT Touchdown, down 36 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.2%97% to makeGo for two0.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:31CIT Touchdown, down 32 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.1%97% to makeGo for two0.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:25CLEM Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCITDrive 1MISSED FG12 plays · 53 yds · 4:551% → 1%
Q1 13:20
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+24
99.4%
Johnathan Bennett pass complete to Javonte Graves-Billips for 24 yds to the CLEM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:28
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+14
99.3%
(11:34) Shotgun Johnson,Garrison rush middle for 1 yard loss to the CLEM40 (Brown,Sammy) PENALTY CLEM Face Mask (Carter,Barrett) 14 yards from CLEM39 to CLEM25, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:18
4TH & 2
OPP 17
-5
99.2%
PENALTY CIT Illegal Substitution 5 yards from CLEM17 to CLEM22. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 2TD5 plays · 78 yds · 1:3699% → 99%
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+14
99.2%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Bryant Wesco Jr. for 14 yds to the CLEM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
99.2%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Bryant Wesco Jr. for 6 yds to the CLEM 42Similar
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
99.2%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Antonio Williams for 30 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 3INT TD11 plays · 37 yds · 4:471% → 1%
Q1 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
98.9%
PENALTY CIT False Start (Murillo,Darwin) 5 yards from CLEM35 to CLEM40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:08
2ND & 9
OPP 34
-4
98.9%
Johnathan Bennett sacked by Peter Woods for a loss of 4 yards to the CLEM 38Similar
Q1 3:17
3RD & 13
OPP 38
-57
99.1%
Johnathan Bennett pass intercepted Payton Page return for 57 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 4PUNT10 plays · 31 yds · 4:451% → 1%
Q2 13:33
4TH & 3
OPP 39
-5
98.8%
PENALTY CIT Delay Of Game 5 yards from CLEM39 to CLEM44. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 5TD8 plays · 80 yds · 2:2499% → 99%
Q2 12:43
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+11
98.8%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Antonio Williams for 11 yds to the CLEM 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-10
98.8%
(12:32) No Huddle-Shotgun Klubnik,Cade pass complete short right to Moore,T.J. caught at CLEM30, for 4 yards to the CLEM37 (Wyatt,Thomas) PENALTY CLEM Illegal Block in Back (Sapp,Josh) 10 yards from CLEM33 to CLEM23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+55
99.3%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Bryant Wesco Jr. for 55 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 6PUNT6 plays · 16 yds · 2:431% → 1%
Q2 7:57
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
99.2%
Jack Weil punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Antonio Williams at the CLEM 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 7TD4 plays · 90 yds · 1:3899% → 100%
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+12
99.2%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Cole Turner for 12 yds to the CLEM 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
99.3%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Cole Turner for 9 yds to the CLEM 31Similar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 1
OWN 31
-1
99.3%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Antonio Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the CLEM 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 8FUMBLE4 plays · 55 yds · 1:250% → 0%
CLEMDrive 9TD10 plays · 80 yds · 2:42100% → 100%
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
99.7%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Adam Randall for 14 yds to the CLEM 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+23
99.7%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Antonio Williams for 23 yds to the CIT 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
99.7%
Cade Klubnik run for 8 yds to the CIT 12 Cade Klubnik fumbled, recovered by CLEMSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 10END OF HALF7 plays · 27 yds · 0:510% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 11TD7 plays · 49 yds · 1:37100% → 100%
Q3 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+16
99.8%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Olsen Patt-Henry for 16 yds to the CIT 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
99.9%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Antonio Williams for 9 yds for a TD (Hogan Morton KICK)Similar
Q3 13:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
99.9%
The Citadel Penalty, Defensive Offside (Javonte Graves-Billips) declinedSimilar
Q3 13:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
99.9%
PENALTY CLEM False Start (Parks,Walker) 5 yards from CIT03 to CIT08. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 12TD16 plays · 75 yds · 8:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 13FG10 plays · 50 yds · 3:57100% → 100%
Q3 2:44
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+12
99.9%
Christopher Vizzina pass complete to Cole Turner for 12 yds to the CIT 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:14
2ND & 10
OPP 12
-10
99.9%
Christopher Vizzina sacked by Bradlee Jones for a loss of 10 yards to the CIT 22Similar
Q3 1:34
3RD & 20
OPP 22
+7
99.9%
Christopher Vizzina pass complete to Misun Kelley for 7 yds to the CIT 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:020% → 0%
Q4 14:48
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+2
99.9%
James Platte punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CLEM 37 , Cole Turner returns for 2 yds to the CLEM 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 15MISSED FG11 plays · 35 yds · 3:05100% → 100%
CITDrive 16TD2 plays · 72 yds · 0:370% → 0%
CLEMDrive 17TD13 plays · 70 yds · 3:43100% → 100%
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-10
99.9%
(09:13) No Huddle-Shotgun Eziomume,David rush left for 0 yards to the CLEM46 (Wyatt,Thomas) PENALTY CLEM Holding (Sewell,Harris) 10 yards from CLEM46 to CLEM36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:01
1ST & 20
OWN 36
+15
99.9%
The Citadel Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Thomas Wyatt) to the CIT 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:04
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+21
99.9%
Christopher Vizzina pass complete to Jackson Crosby for 21 yds to the CIT 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:03
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+5
99.9%
Christopher Vizzina pass complete to Noble Johnson for 5 yds to the CIT 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 18PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:580% → 0%
CLEMDrive 19INT2 plays · 13 yds · 0:44100% → 100%
CITDrive 20DOWNS9 plays · 21 yds · 3:230% → 0%
Q4 3:43
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+9
100.0%
Clemson Penalty, Face Mask (9 yards) (9 Yards) to the CLEM 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
100.0%
PENALTY CIT False Start (Jones,Bryson) 5 yards from CLEM02 to CLEM07. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:20
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+9
100.0%
Dustin Fletcher pass complete to Graeson Underwood for 9 yds to the CLEM 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 21END OF GAME1 play · 12 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:49
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Bryant Wesco Jr. for 55 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK)
+0.5
TD · Q2 6:07
Jay Haynes run for 70 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK)
+0.4
TD · Q1 3:17
Johnathan Bennett pass intercepted Payton Page return for 57 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK)
+0.2