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STAN

Stanford 21 at California 24

CAL
2024 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2024 · California Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · CAL
modelCAL aheadSTAN aheadconfidence bandkey playCAL scoreSTAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+61.4CAL 88.2%Jonathan Brady 22 Yd pass fromFernando Mendoza (Fernando MendozaPass to Jaydn Ott for Two-PointConversion)AWAY 21 - HOME 24 · Q4 2:40
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:40 · Jonathan Brady 22 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Fernando Mendoza Pass to Jaydn Ott for Two-Point Conversion)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 171Pregame prior+1.6Home team on offense+16.6Score differential+1.5Garbage-time factor+9.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:04: Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 16 yds for a TD (Derek Morris KICK) — CAL win probability +12.3 pts (now 71%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:33: Micah Ford pass complete to Emmett Mosley V for 2 yds for a TD (Emmet Kenney KICK) — STAN win probability +16.4 pts (now 73%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 0:47: Ryan Coe 46 yd FG GOOD — CAL win probability +4.9 pts (now 28%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:09: Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 30 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — CAL win probability +25.3 pts (now 43%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:40: Jonathan Brady 22 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Fernando Mendoza Pass to Jaydn Ott for Two-Point Conversion) — CAL win probability +61.4 pts (now 88%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CAL made the numbers' call on 9 of 9STAN made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 5:22CAL 4th & 5 at CAL 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.7%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 0:00CAL 4th & 5 at CAL 45, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.1%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.3%
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:58STAN 4th & 3 at STAN 40, up 14
    Close callPunted · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.0%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:17STAN 4th & 1 at STAN 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    29.8%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:14CAL 4th & 2 at STAN 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    64.2%−1.9
    36% to make
    Punt
    64.1%−2.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:21STAN 4th & 3 at CAL 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    38.6%−1.5
    23% to make
    Punt
    39.2%−1.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:40STAN 4th & 11 at CAL 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.6%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.0%
    45% to make
    Punt
    39.9%−1.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:22CAL 4th & 11 at STAN 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%−1.7
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.2%
    51% to make
    Punt
    58.4%−2.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:38CAL 4th & 10 at CAL 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.0%−1.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:38CAL 4th & 10 at CAL 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.0%−1.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:33STAN 4th & 2 at CAL 2, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    52.0%−2.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    42.0%−12.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:30STAN 4th & 8 at CAL 18, up 14
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.6 ptsWent for it · 72.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.6%−1.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    72.2%
    79% to make
    Punt
    62.0%−10.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:54CAL 4th & 2 at CAL 47, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    29.2%−1.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:47CAL 4th & 14 at STAN 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.5%−1.9
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.4%
    60% to make
    Punt
    17.5%−6.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:58STAN 4th & 7 at STAN 28, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.7%−1.9
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:45STAN 4th & 5 at CAL 45, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 68.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    64.3%−5.0
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    67.9%−1.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:47CAL 4th & 2 at CAL 38, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    23.5%−5.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:14STAN 4th & 15 at STAN 20, down 3
    Close callWent for it · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.4%−0.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CAL made the numbers' call on 1 of 3STAN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 7:49STAN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:27STAN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:04CAL Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:33STAN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:09CAL Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    39.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    39.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:40CAL Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    69.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    69.0%−0.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
STANDrive 1TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 6:5719% → 23%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
81.5%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Sam Roush for 3 yds to the STAN 28Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
81.4%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Sam Roush for 4 yds to the STAN 32Similar
Q1 13:38
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+29
81.2%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Emmett Mosley V for 29 yds to the CAL 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
80.9%
Micah Ford run for 7 yds to the CAL 32Similar
Q1 12:24
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+6
80.6%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Sam Roush for 6 yds to the CAL 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
80.4%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 7 yds to the CAL 19Similar
Q1 11:13
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+5
80.1%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Emmett Mosley V for 5 yds to the CAL 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
79.9%
Ashton Daniels run for 6 yds to the CAL 8Similar
Q1 10:06
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+4
79.7%
Ashton Daniels run for 4 yds to the CAL 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
79.5%
(09:36) Shotgun Ford,Micah rush right for 1 yard gain to the CAL03 (Harris,Marcus), out of bounds PENALTY CAL Offside (Carlton,Xavier) 2 yards from CAL04 to CAL02. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
79.2%
Justin Lamson run for no gain to the CAL 2Similar
Q1 8:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
79.0%
Justin Lamson run for 1 yd to the CAL 1Similar
Q1 7:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
77.1%
Justin Lamson run for 1 yd for a TD (Emmet Kenney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:1077% → 75%
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
76.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 7 yds to the CAL 28Similar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+6
76.9%
Jaydn Ott run for 6 yds to the CAL 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
76.6%
Jaydn Ott run for a loss of 1 yard to the CAL 33Similar
Q1 6:13
2ND & 11
OWN 33
0
76.0%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Nyziah HunterSimilar
Q1 5:57
3RD & 11
OWN 33
+6
75.6%
Fernando Mendoza run for 6 yds to the CAL 39Similar
Q1 5:22
4TH & 5
OWN 39
+35
75.4%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 50 yds , Tiger Bachmeier returns for 35 yds to the STAN 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 3TD
9 plays · 54 yds · 3:4625% → 33%
Q1 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
74.9%
Ashton Daniels run for 3 yds to the STAN 49Similar
Q1 4:35
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+15
74.4%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 15 yds to the CAL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
73.6%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Emmett Mosley V for no gain to the CAL 36Similar
Q1 3:25
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+18
73.2%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Emmett Mosley V for 18 yds to the CAL 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
72.5%
Micah Ford run for 5 yds to the CAL 13Similar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+11
71.9%
Micah Ford run for 11 yds to the CAL 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
71.1%
Justin Lamson pass incomplete to Emmett Mosley VSimilar
Q1 1:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
67.2%
Justin Lamson run for 2 yds for a TD (Emmet Kenney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0966% → 64%
Q1 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
65.8%
Fernando Mendoza run for 4 yds to the CAL 44Similar
Q1 0:41
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+1
65.3%
Jaydn Ott run for 1 yd to the CAL 45Similar
Q1 0:07
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
64.3%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Mikey MatthewsSimilar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
64.0%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:5334% → 37%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
66.1%
Ashton Daniels run for 9 yds to the STAN 29Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+4
65.0%
Micah Ford run for 4 yds to the STAN 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
64.1%
Ashton Daniels pass incomplete to Tiger BachmeierSimilar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
64.2%
Ashton Daniels pass incomplete to Elic AyomanorSimilar
Q2 13:26
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+7
64.3%
Ashton Daniels run for 7 yds to the STAN 40Similar
Q2 12:58
4TH & 3
OWN 40
0
63.5%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Mikey Matthews at the CAL 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 6TD
5 plays · 82 yds · 1:4060% → 71%
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+60
59.5%
Fernando Mendoza run for 50 yds to the STAN 32 for a 1ST down Stanford Penalty, Defensive Holding (Collin Wright) to the STAN 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
60.5%
Jaivian Thomas run for 5 yds to the STAN 17Similar
Q2 11:34
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+1
58.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 1 yd to the STAN 16Similar
Q2 11:04
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+16
70.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 16 yds for a TD (Derek Morris KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 7PUNT
11 plays · -11 yds · 4:0732% → 35%
Q2 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
67.9%
Chris Davis Jr. run for 6 yds to the STAN 31Similar
Q2 10:22
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
66.7%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:56
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
66.6%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Sam Roush for 3 yds to the STAN 34Similar
Q2 9:17
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
66.7%
Justin Lamson run for 2 yds to the STAN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-8
65.1%
Ashton Daniels run for 2 yds to the STAN 38 Stanford Penalty, Offensive Holding (Sam Roush) to the STAN 28Similar
Q2 8:29
1ST & 18
OWN 28
+1
65.9%
Ashton Daniels run for 1 yd to the STAN 29Similar
Q2 7:28
2ND & 17
OWN 29
-4
64.1%
Ashton Daniels sacked by David Reese for a loss of 4 yards to the STAN 25 Ashton Daniels fumbled, recovered by STAN Ashton Daniels , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 7:10
3RD & 21
OWN 25
+4
64.4%
Ashton Daniels run for 4 yds to the STAN 29Similar
Q2 7:07
4TH & 17
OWN 29
-15
64.9%
PENALTY STA Personal Foul (Pale,Simione) 15 yards from STA29 to STA14. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:47
4TH & 32
OWN 14
+10
64.7%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 54 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CAL 42 , Mikey Matthews returns for 10 yds to the CAL 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 8DOWNS
9 plays · 11 yds · 2:1765% → 69%
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
65.2%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Corey Dyches for 3 yds to the CAL 45Similar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 7
OWN 45
0
70.8%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Corey DychesSimilar
Q2 6:03
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+8
69.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Corey Dyches for 8 yds to the STAN 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-4
71.3%
Fernando Mendoza sacked by Zach Buckey for a loss of 4 yards to the CAL 49Similar
Q2 5:09
2ND & 14
OWN 49
+13
69.2%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Mikey Matthews for 13 yds to the STAN 38Similar
Q2 4:45
3RD & 1
OPP 38
-1
70.5%
Jaivian Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the STAN 39Similar
Q2 4:14
4TH & 2
OPP 39
-8
69.4%
Fernando Mendoza sacked by Tristan Sinclair for a loss of 8 yards to the STAN 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 9MISSED FG
12 plays · 18 yds · 2:2136% → 39%
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
64.2%
Chris Davis Jr. run for 7 yds to the CAL 46Similar
Q2 3:29
2ND & 3
OPP 46
0
63.1%
Chris Davis Jr. run for no gain to the CAL 46Similar
Q2 3:09
3RD & 3
OPP 46
0
62.2%
Ashton Daniels run for no gain to the CAL 46Similar
Q2 2:21
4TH & 3
OPP 46
+12
62.8%
Ashton Daniels run for 12 yds to the CAL 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
57.8%
Ashton Daniels run for no gain to the CAL 34Similar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-4
57.8%
Ashton Daniels sacked for a loss of 4 yards to the CAL 38Similar
Q2 1:44
3RD & 10
OPP 34
-1
58.5%
Micah Ford run for a loss of 1 yard to the CAL 35Similar
Q2 1:40
4TH & 11
OPP 35
+53
60.6%
Emmet Kenney 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 10MISSED FG
11 plays · 33 yds · 1:1365% → 64%
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
64.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 9 yds to the CAL 44Similar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+5
66.3%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Tobias Merriweather for 5 yds to the CAL 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
66.4%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Trond GrizzellSimilar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+5
65.9%
Jaydn Ott run for 5 yds to the STAN 46Similar
Q2 0:56
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+15
66.4%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 15 yds to the STAN 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-1
68.2%
Fernando Mendoza sacked by Zach Buckey for a loss of 1 yard to the STAN 32Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 11
OPP 32
0
67.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Jonathan BradySimilar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 11
OPP 32
0
65.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Mikey MatthewsSimilar
Q2 0:22
4TH & 11
OPP 32
+50
63.6%
Ryan Coe 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-2
62.1%
A. Daniels takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:1158% → 54%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
57.6%
Jaydn Ott run for a loss of 1 yard to the CAL 18Similar
Q3 14:12
2ND & 11
OWN 18
+1
56.8%
Jaydn Ott run for 1 yd to the CAL 19Similar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 10
OWN 19
0
55.1%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Trond GrizzellSimilar
Q3 13:38
4TH & 10
OWN 19
0
54.4%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Tiger Bachmeier at the STAN 43Similar
Q3 13:38
4TH & 10
OWN 19
0
54.4%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Tiger Bachmeier at the STAN 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 13TD
12 plays · 52 yds · 6:5148% → 73%
Q3 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
51.7%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 13 yds to the CAL 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
50.5%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Emmett Mosley V for 9 yds to the CAL 30Similar
Q3 12:08
2ND & 1
OPP 30
0
49.2%
Ashton Daniels run for no gain to the CAL 30Similar
Q3 11:25
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+8
49.1%
Justin Lamson run for 8 yds to the CAL 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
47.6%
Micah Ford run for 3 yds to the CAL 19Similar
Q3 10:02
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+3
46.8%
Chris Davis Jr. run for 3 yds to the CAL 16Similar
Q3 9:10
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+8
46.7%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 8 yds to the CAL 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
45.3%
Ashton Daniels run for 2 yds to the CAL 6Similar
Q3 7:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
43.5%
Bryce Farrell run for no gain to the CAL 6Similar
Q3 7:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
43.5%
Ashton Daniels run for 4 yds to the CAL 2Similar
Q3 6:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
27.0%
Micah Ford pass complete to Emmett Mosley V for 2 yds for a TD (Emmet Kenney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 14DOWNS
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:4677% → 75%
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
23.3%
Ashton Daniels run for 2 yds to the CAL 18Similar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 8
OPP 18
0
22.6%
Ashton Daniels pass incomplete to Elic AyomanorSimilar
Q3 5:36
3RD & 8
OPP 18
0
23.2%
Ashton Daniels pass incomplete to Sam RoushSimilar
Q3 5:30
4TH & 8
OPP 18
0
25.3%
Connor Weselman pass incomplete to Sam RoushSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 15FG
13 plays · 54 yds · 4:3028% → 28%
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+21
28.0%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 21 yds to the CAL 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
28.3%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 5 yds to the CAL 44Similar
Q3 4:33
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+3
28.4%
Jaydn Ott run for 3 yds to the CAL 47Similar
Q3 4:04
3RD & 2
OWN 47
0
27.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Tobias MerriweatherSimilar
Q3 3:54
4TH & 2
OWN 47
+3
27.0%
Fernando Mendoza run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
50
+5
26.8%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 5 yds to the STAN 45Similar
Q3 2:56
2ND & 5
OPP 45
-10
27.0%
California Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the CAL 46Similar
Q3 2:24
2ND & 14
OWN 46
+30
24.3%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 30 yds to the STAN 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
27.2%
Chandler Rogers pass incomplete to Tobias MerriweatherSimilar
Q3 2:10
2ND & 10
OPP 24
-9
25.8%
Fernando Mendoza sacked by Zach Buckey for a loss of 9 yards to the STAN 33Similar
Q3 1:13
3RD & 19
OPP 33
+5
22.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 5 yds to the STAN 28Similar
Q3 0:47
4TH & 14
OPP 28
+46
27.9%
Ryan Coe 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:0274% → 74%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
26.3%
Micah Ford run for a loss of 2 yards to the STAN 23Similar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+5
26.5%
Ashton Daniels run for 5 yds to the STAN 28Similar
Q4 14:09
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
25.5%
Ashton Daniels pass incomplete to Emmett Mosley VSimilar
Q4 13:58
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+8
26.1%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CAL 29 , Mikey Matthews returns for 8 yds to the CAL 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 17TD
14 plays · 71 yds · 3:4223% → 43%
Q4 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
22.7%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Tobias MerriweatherSimilar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+16
21.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Nyziah Hunter for 16 yds to the CAL 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
23.3%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Nyziah Hunter for 9 yds to the STAN 46Similar
Q4 13:13
2ND & 1
OPP 46
0
25.1%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Nyziah HunterSimilar
Q4 13:04
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+1
23.8%
Jaivian Thomas run for 1 yd to the STAN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
23.8%
Jaivian Thomas run for 7 yds to the STAN 38Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 3
OPP 38
0
23.2%
Mikey Matthews pass incomplete to Corey DychesSimilar
Q4 11:54
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+4
22.0%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Mikey Matthews for 4 yds to the STAN 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
23.9%
Jaivian Thomas run for 3 yds to the STAN 31Similar
Q4 11:02
2ND & 7
OPP 31
-10
23.9%
(11:06) No Huddle-Shotgun Mendoza,Fernando pass complete short left to Endries,Jack caught at STA29, for 5 yards to the STA26 (Nicholson,Brandon; Sumlin,Jaylen'Dai) PENALTY CAL Holding (Morrow,Nick) 10 yards from STA31 to STA41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:31
2ND & 17
OPP 41
+11
17.3%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Corey Dyches for 11 yds to the STAN 30Similar
Q4 10:09
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+30
42.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 30 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 2:1959% → 67%
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
41.5%
Ashton Daniels pass incomplete to Elic AyomanorSimilar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
42.8%
Ashton Daniels run for 6 yds to the STAN 31 Ashton Daniels fumbled, recovered by STAN Ashton DanielsSimilar
Q4 9:15
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+19
35.7%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:06
1ST & 10
50
0
31.6%
Ashton Daniels run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:24
2ND & 10
50
+5
31.1%
Ashton Daniels run for 5 yds to the CAL 45Similar
Q4 7:55
3RD & 5
OPP 45
0
30.5%
Ashton Daniels pass incomplete to Micah FordSimilar
Q4 7:45
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
32.9%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 19TD
14 plays · 98 yds · 4:5933% → 88%
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+15
33.0%
(07:45) Shotgun Mendoza,Fernando pass incomplete deep right to Hunter,Nyziah thrown to CAL35 PENALTY STA Pass Interference (Nicholson,Brandon) 15 yards from CAL02 to CAL17, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
32.7%
(07:39) Shotgun Mendoza,Fernando pass incomplete short middle to Hunter,Nyziah thrown to CAL35 PENALTY STA Pass Interference offsetting CAL Ineligible Downfield on Pass offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
28.3%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 9 yds to the CAL 26Similar
Q4 6:14
2ND & 1
OWN 26
-2
29.2%
Jaydn Ott run for a loss of 2 yards to the CAL 24Similar
Q4 6:14
3RD & 3
OWN 24
+6
26.1%
Fernando Mendoza run for 6 yds to the CAL 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
28.4%
(06:11) Shotgun Mendoza,Fernando pass complete short right to Hunter,Nyziah caught at CAL34, for 4 yards to the CAL34, out of bounds at CAL34 PENALTY STA Illegal Substitution 5 yards from CAL30 to CAL35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:43
1ST & 5
OWN 35
-7
30.6%
Fernando Mendoza sacked by Tobin Phillips for a loss of 7 yards to the CAL 28Similar
Q4 5:18
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+10
24.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Mikey Matthews for 10 yds to the CAL 38Similar
Q4 5:03
3RD & 2
OWN 38
0
26.0%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Tobias MerriweatherSimilar
Q4 4:47
4TH & 2
OWN 38
+5
25.1%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 5 yds to the CAL 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+36
29.0%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Nyziah Hunter for 36 yds to the STAN 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-5
33.3%
Fernando Mendoza sacked by Gaethan Bernadel for a loss of 5 yards to the STAN 26Similar
Q4 3:13
2ND & 15
OPP 26
+4
26.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 4 yds to the STAN 22Similar
Q4 2:40
3RD & 11
OPP 22
+22
88.2%
Jonathan Brady 22 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Fernando Mendoza Pass to Jaydn Ott for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 20DOWNS
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:1824% → 18%
Q4 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
75.7%
Ashton Daniels sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the STAN 20Similar
Q4 2:29
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
79.6%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:22
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
80.9%
Ashton Daniels pass incomplete to Tiger BachmeierSimilar
Q4 2:14
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
82.2%
Ashton Daniels pass incomplete to Tiger BachmeierSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 21END OF GAME
7 plays · 9 yds · 2:0091% → 96%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
91.2%
Jaydn Ott run for 6 yds to the STAN 14Similar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 4
OPP 14
-1
91.0%
Jaydn Ott run for a loss of 1 yard to the STAN 15Similar
Q4 1:51
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+7
90.1%
Chandler Rogers run for 7 yds to the STAN 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
92.7%
F. Mendoza takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
96.2%
F. Mendoza takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:40
Jonathan Brady 22 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Fernando Mendoza Pass to Jaydn Ott for Two-Point Conversion)
+61.4
TD · Q4 10:09
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 30 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+25.3
TD · Q3 6:33
Micah Ford pass complete to Emmett Mosley V for 2 yds for a TD (Emmet Kenney KICK)
-16.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com