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UNC

North Carolina 21 at Boston College 41

BC
2024 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2024 · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
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Win probability · BC
modelBC aheadUNC aheadconfidence bandkey playBC scoreUNC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:00 · Grayson James pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for 2 yds to the UNC 16 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginPregame prior
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 42Home team on offense+4.1Score differential+0.5Garbage-time factor+1.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.9Blowout margin−0.4Pregame prior−4.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:41: Grayson James run for 3 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK) — BC win probability +5.9 pts (now 57%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  2. FG · Q1 8:45: Liam Connor 49 Yd Field Goal — BC win probability +3.6 pts (now 47%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 9:05: Johnathan Montague Jr. run for 24 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK) — BC win probability +14.7 pts (now 74%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:40: Grayson James pass complete to Reed Harris for 18 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK) — BC win probability +14.3 pts (now 83%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 11:20: Liam Connor 27 yd FG GOOD — BC win probability +9.8 pts (now 91%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BC made the numbers' call on 6 of 9UNC made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 5:39UNC 4th & 7 at UNC 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.1%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 15:00BC 4th & 1 at UNC 18, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    45.7%−0.1
    79% to make
    Punt
    45.2%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:45BC 4th & 25 at UNC 31, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.4%−0.7
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.1%
    54% to make
    Punt
    48.8%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:00BC 4th & 1 at UNC 18, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    54.4%−1.6
    79% to make
    Punt
    49.5%−6.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:18UNC 4th & 2 at BC 41, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    39.2%−2.1
    32% to make
    Punt
    39.7%−1.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:57BC 4th & 7 at BC 40, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.4%−0.8
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:30UNC 4th & 16 at UNC 25, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.3%−2.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:55BC 4th & 2 at UNC 43, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    64.7%−2.2
    28% to make
    Punt
    65.1%−1.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:00UNC 4th & 10 at BC 40, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.6%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    20.0%−1.0
    34% to make
    Punt
    21.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:51UNC 4th & 13 at UNC 22, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.6%−3.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:20BC 4th & 4 at UNC 9, up 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 83.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.3%
    43% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.8%−0.4
    89% to make
    Punt
    73.6%−9.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:54UNC 4th & 6 at UNC 39, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:54BC 4th & 9 at UNC 29, up 20
    Close callWent for it · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.9%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    92.3%
    58% to make
    Punt
    89.0%−3.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:43BC 4th & 4 at UNC 5, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    94.3%−0.3
    92% to make
    Punt
    90.5%−4.1
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:57UNC 4th & 18 at UNC 13, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.9%−1.9
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:51UNC 4th & 2 at BC 42, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    1.7%−1.4
    30% to make
    Punt
    2.1%−1.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:39UNC 4th & 10 at UNC 25, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:25BC 4th & 2 at BC 33, up 27
    Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%−0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BC made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UNC made the numbers' call on 0 of 2
  1. Q2 13:41BC Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:05BC Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:40BC Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 12:38BC Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:51BC Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:09UNC Touchdown, down 28 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:09UNC Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNCDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 3:0654% → 52%
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
46.2%
Omarion Hampton run for 4 yds to the UNC 17Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+7
46.2%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to J.J. Jones for 7 yds to the UNC 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
46.1%
Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds to the UNC 27Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 7
OWN 27
-4
46.1%
Jacolby Criswell sacked by Donovan Ezeiruaku and Owen Stoudmire for a loss of 4 yards to the UNC 23Similar
Q1 8:45
3RD & 11
OWN 23
+4
46.5%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to J.J. Jones for 4 yds to the UNC 27Similar
Q1 5:39
4TH & 7
OWN 27
+1
48.1%
Tom Maginness punt for 40 yds , Isaiah Farris returns for 1 yd to the BC 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 2TD
13 plays · 66 yds · 6:5847% → 57%
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
47.2%
Kye Robichaux run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 33Similar
Q1 5:39
2ND & 11
OWN 33
+5
47.0%
Grayson James pass complete to Lewis Bond for 5 yds to the BC 38Similar
Q1 5:39
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+15
47.1%
North Carolina Penalty, Roughing the Passer on COWAN, Jacolbe enforced (Jacolbe Cowan) to the UNC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
48.1%
Kye Robichaux run for 2 yds to the UNC 38Similar
Q1 5:39
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+9
48.1%
Grayson James pass complete to Lewis Bond for 9 yds to the UNC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
48.3%
Grayson James run for no gain to the UNC 29Similar
Q1 5:39
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+1
48.3%
Grayson James pass complete to Lewis Bond for 1 yd to the UNC 28Similar
Q1 5:39
3RD & 9
OPP 28
+10
47.9%
Grayson James pass complete to Reed Harris for 10 yds to the UNC 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
48.3%
Grayson James pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+3
50.7%
Grayson James run for 3 yds to the UNC 15Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 15
+8
50.2%
Grayson James pass complete to Lewis Bond for 8 yds to the UNC 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
50.7%
Kye Robichaux run for 4 yds to the UNC 3Similar
Q2 13:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
56.6%
Grayson James run for 3 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 3FG
27 plays · 39 yds · 15:0044% → 54%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
43.6%
Kye Robichaux run for 5 yds to the BC 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+1
43.6%
Kye Robichaux run for 1 yd to the BC 36Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+11
43.6%
Grayson James pass complete to Treshaun Ward for 11 yds to the BC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
43.6%
Treshaun Ward run for 2 yds to the BC 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+24
43.6%
Grayson James pass complete to Lewis Bond for 24 yds to the UNC 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
43.6%
Kye Robichaux run for 4 yds to the UNC 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 23
-1
43.6%
Kye Robichaux run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNC 24Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 24
+6
43.6%
Grayson James pass complete to Treshaun Ward for 6 yds to the UNC 18Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 18
+2
43.6%
Grayson James pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for 2 yds to the UNC 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
43.6%
Kye Robichaux run for no gain to the UNC 16Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 16
-15
43.6%
JAMES, Grayson pass to the left complete for 16 yards to ROBICHAUX, Kye caught at the NC1 and advanced to the NC0, TOUCHDOWN BC, score nullified by penalty (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY BC Pass Interference on HARRIS, Reed enforced 15 yards to the NC31 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 25
OPP 31
0
43.6%
Grayson James pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 25
OPP 31
0
43.6%
Grayson James pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:45
4TH & 25
OPP 31
+49
47.2%
Liam Connor 49 Yd Field Goal Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
54.5%
Kye Robichaux run for 5 yds to the BC 35Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+1
54.9%
Kye Robichaux run for 1 yd to the BC 36Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+11
54.5%
Grayson James pass complete to Treshaun Ward for 11 yds to the BC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
55.4%
Treshaun Ward run for 2 yds to the BC 49Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+24
55.3%
Grayson James pass complete to Lewis Bond for 24 yds to the UNC 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
55.6%
Kye Robichaux run for 4 yds to the UNC 23Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 23
-1
55.6%
Kye Robichaux run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNC 24Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 24
+6
55.1%
Grayson James pass complete to Treshaun Ward for 6 yds to the UNC 18Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 18
+2
54.4%
Grayson James pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for 2 yds to the UNC 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
55.6%
Kye Robichaux run for no gain to the UNC 16Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 16
-15
55.6%
JAMES, Grayson pass to the left complete for 16 yards to ROBICHAUX, Kye caught at the NC1 and advanced to the NC0, TOUCHDOWN BC, score nullified by penalty (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY BC Pass Interference on HARRIS, Reed enforced 15 yards to the NC31 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 25
OPP 31
0
55.1%
Grayson James pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 25
OPP 31
0
54.4%
Grayson James pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4DOWNS
8 plays · 32 yds · 3:2345% → 43%
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
55.3%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to J.J. Jones for 12 yds to the UNC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
54.6%
Omarion Hampton run for 9 yds to the UNC 48Similar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+3
53.9%
Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds to the BC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:41
1ST & 25
OWN 36
-2
55.4%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Omarion Hampton for a loss of 2 yards to the UNC 34Similar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 27
OWN 34
0
55.6%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:41
3RD & 27
OWN 34
+25
56.3%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to John Copenhaver for 25 yds to the BC 41Similar
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-15
54.0%
CRISWELL, Jacolby pass deep to the right incomplete intended for JONES, J.J. broken up by MCSHANE, Ashton at the BC28; QB hurried by EZEIRUAKU, Donovan. PENALTY NC Illegal use of the hands on GREEN, Trevyon enforced 15 yards from the BC49 to the NC36 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 10:18
4TH & 2
OPP 41
0
57.3%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 5TD
3 plays · 59 yds · 1:1360% → 74%
Q2 10:18
2ND & 1
50
+15
59.5%
North Carolina Penalty, Illegal use of the hands on COWAN, Jacolbe enforced (Jacolbe Cowan) to the UNC 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
59.2%
Grayson James run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
73.9%
Johnathan Montague Jr. run for 24 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:5459% → 61%
Q2 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
58.9%
Jordan McDonald run for 4 yds to the BC 29Similar
Q2 8:51
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
59.0%
Jordan McDonald run for 2 yds to the BC 31Similar
Q2 8:51
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
58.4%
Grayson James run for 6 yds to the BC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
59.5%
Treshaun Ward run for 3 yds to the BC 40Similar
Q2 8:51
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
60.1%
Grayson James pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:51
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
59.0%
Grayson James pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:57
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
60.8%
Liam Connor punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Alijah Huzzie at the UNC 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:2739% → 35%
Q2 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
61.3%
Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds to the UNC 34Similar
Q2 5:57
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+1
61.1%
Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd to the UNC 35Similar
Q2 5:57
3RD & 6
OWN 35
-10
61.8%
North Carolina Penalty, turnover on downs. PENALTY Intentional Grounding on CRISWELL, Jacolby enforced resulting in a (-10 Yards) to the UNC 26Similar
Q2 4:30
4TH & 16
OWN 25
0
64.6%
Tom Maginness punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 8DOWNS
10 plays · 20 yds · 2:3564% → 65%
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
63.8%
Kye Robichaux run for 7 yds to the BC 44Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+5
64.7%
Kye Robichaux run for 5 yds to the BC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-10
64.7%
JAMES, Grayson pass short to the left incomplete thrown to the BC50; QB hurried by EVANS, Desmond. PENALTY BC Holding on BOWRY, Jude enforced 10 yards from the BC49 to the BC39 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 20
OWN 39
+7
63.9%
Grayson James pass complete to Johnathan Montague Jr. for 7 yds to the BC 46Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 13
OWN 46
-14
63.9%
Boston College Penalty, Face mask (14 yards) (Lewis Bond) to the BC 44Similar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 15
OWN 44
+4
66.6%
Grayson James pass complete to Lewis Bond for 4 yds to the BC 48Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 11
OWN 48
+9
64.9%
Grayson James run for 9 yds to the UNC 43Similar
Q2 1:55
4TH & 2
OPP 43
0
65.0%
Grayson James pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 9INT
3 plays · -6 yds · 0:5135% → 32%
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
65.2%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-6
65.6%
Jacolby Criswell sacked by Donovan Ezeiruaku and Quintayvious Hutchins for a loss of 6 yards to the UNC 37Similar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 16
OWN 37
-18
68.2%
Jacolby Criswell pass intercepted Joe Marinaro return for 18 yds to the UNC 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 10TD
4 plays · 32 yds · 0:2469% → 83%
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+10
69.3%
Kye Robichaux run for 10 yds to the UNC 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
68.7%
Kye Robichaux run for 4 yds to the UNC 18Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+18
83.0%
Grayson James pass complete to Reed Harris for 18 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 11DOWNS
8 plays · 68 yds · 0:4024% → 17%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+14
76.2%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 14 yds to the UNC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+14
75.6%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Jordan Shipp for 14 yds to the BC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
73.3%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-6
75.0%
Jacolby Criswell sacked by Donovan Ezeiruaku for a loss of 6 yards to the BC 46Similar
Q2 0:06
3RD & 16
OPP 46
+6
85.3%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to John Copenhaver for 6 yds to the BC 40Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 10
OPP 40
0
83.1%
Jacolby Criswell pass intercepted Carter Davis return for no gain to the BC 0Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 2:0921% → 18%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
78.6%
Omarion Hampton run for 5 yds to the UNC 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
78.0%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 2 yds to the UNC 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-10
78.2%
Jacolby Criswell sacked by Ryan Turner for a loss of 10 yards to the UNC 22Similar
Q3 12:51
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+52
82.3%
Tom Maginness punt for 45 yds , Isaiah Farris returns for 52 yds to the UNC 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 13FG
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3182% → 91%
Q3 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
82.1%
Kye Robichaux run for 4 yds to the UNC 11Similar
Q3 12:51
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+2
82.1%
Grayson James run for 2 yds to the UNC 9Similar
Q3 12:51
3RD & 4
OPP 9
0
81.5%
Grayson James pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:20
4TH & 4
OPP 9
+27
91.3%
Liam Connor 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2611% → 9%
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
89.2%
Omarion Hampton run for no gain to the UNC 35Similar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+9
89.4%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Chris Culliver for 9 yds to the UNC 44Similar
Q3 11:20
3RD & 1
OWN 44
-5
88.9%
North Carolina Penalty, False Start (Chris Culliver) to the UNC 39Similar
Q3 11:20
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
89.3%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:54
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
91.5%
Tom Maginness punt for 57 yds, downed at the BC 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 15DOWNS
13 plays · 90 yds · 5:1193% → 95%
Q3 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+5
93.0%
Kye Robichaux run for 5 yds to the BC 9Similar
Q3 9:54
2ND & 5
OWN 9
+48
93.0%
Grayson James pass complete to Reed Harris for 48 yds to the UNC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
93.0%
Kye Robichaux run for 5 yds to the UNC 38Similar
Q3 9:54
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+8
93.0%
Kye Robichaux run for 8 yds to the UNC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
93.0%
Kye Robichaux run for 1 yd to the UNC 29Similar
Q3 9:54
2ND & 9
OPP 29
0
93.0%
Grayson James pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:54
3RD & 9
OPP 29
0
92.8%
Grayson James pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:54
4TH & 9
OPP 29
+18
92.2%
Grayson James pass complete to Lewis Bond for 18 yds to the UNC 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
93.0%
Grayson James pass complete to Lewis Bond for no gain to the UNC 11Similar
Q3 9:54
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+4
93.0%
Kye Robichaux run for 4 yds to the UNC 7Similar
Q3 9:54
3RD & 6
OPP 7
+2
92.9%
Grayson James pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for 2 yds to the UNC 5Similar
Q3 4:43
4TH & 4
OPP 5
-1
94.5%
Grayson James sacked by Kevin Hester Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the UNC 6Similar
Q3 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+15
94.9%
CRISWELL, Jacolby pass deep to the right incomplete intended for PAYSOUR, Kobe thrown to the NC33. PENALTY BC Pass Interference on MARTINEZ, Cameron enforced 15 yards to the NC21 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:465% → 4%
Q3 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
94.7%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:43
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+4
94.7%
Omarion Hampton run for 4 yds to the UNC 25Similar
Q3 4:43
3RD & 6
OWN 25
-5
94.8%
North Carolina Penalty, False Start (Trevyon Green) to the UNC 20Similar
Q3 4:43
3RD & 11
OWN 20
-7
94.9%
Jacolby Criswell sacked by KP Price for a loss of 7 yards to the UNC 13Similar
Q3 2:57
4TH & 18
OWN 13
+49
95.9%
punt for 49 yds , Isaiah Farris returns for no gain to the BC 22 , returns for a loss of 4 yards to the BC 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 17FUMBLE
6 plays · 28 yds · 3:0696% → 98%
Q3 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
95.5%
Treshaun Ward run for 4 yds to the BC 26Similar
Q3 2:57
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+6
95.5%
Treshaun Ward run for 6 yds to the BC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
95.5%
Jordan McDonald run for 3 yds to the BC 35Similar
Q3 2:57
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+4
95.4%
Jordan McDonald run for 4 yds to the BC 39Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+6
97.3%
Grayson James run for 6 yds to the BC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
97.5%
Kye Robichaux run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line Kye Robichaux fumbled, recovered by UNC Kevin Hester Jr. , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18INT TD
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:133% → 0%
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
50
+6
97.0%
Omarion Hampton run for 6 yds to the BC 44Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 4
OPP 44
-7
96.9%
Jacolby Criswell sacked by Joe Marinaro for a loss of 7 yards to the UNC 49Similar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 11
OWN 49
+9
97.1%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to John Copenhaver for 9 yds to the BC 42Similar
Q4 14:51
4TH & 2
OPP 42
+15
97.1%
Omarion Hampton run for 15 yds to the BC 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-5
96.6%
North Carolina Penalty, Offsides (Kobe Paysour) to the BC 32Similar
Q4 12:38
1ST & 15
OPP 32
-78
99.8%
Jacolby Criswell pass intercepted Ryan Turner return for 78 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:590% → 0%
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Kaleb Cost for no gain to the UNC 25Similar
Q4 12:38
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:39
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Tom Maginness punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Farris at the BC 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 20TD
10 plays · 64 yds · 5:48100% → 100%
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
99.8%
Jordan McDonald run for 3 yds to the BC 39Similar
Q4 11:39
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+3
99.8%
Jordan McDonald run for 3 yds to the BC 42Similar
Q4 11:39
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+15
99.8%
JAMES, Grayson pass deep to the right incomplete intended for HARRIS, Reed broken up by HUZZIE, Alijah at the NC30. PENALTY NC Pass Interference on HUZZIE, Alijah enforced 15 yards to the NC43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
99.8%
Jordan McDonald run for 10 yds to the UNC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
99.8%
Jordan McDonald run for 9 yds to the UNC 24Similar
Q4 11:39
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+3
99.7%
Jordan McDonald run for 3 yds to the UNC 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
99.8%
Kye Robichaux run for 5 yds to the UNC 16Similar
Q4 11:39
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+4
99.8%
Kye Robichaux run for 4 yds to the UNC 12Similar
Q4 11:39
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+4
99.7%
Kye Robichaux run for 4 yds to the UNC 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
99.9%
Kye Robichaux run for 8 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 21TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:420% → 0%
Q4 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.9%
Davion Gause run for 8 yds to the UNC 33Similar
Q4 5:51
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
99.9%
Davion Gause run for 4 yds to the UNC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
99.9%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:51
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
99.9%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:51
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+11
99.9%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Kaleb Cost for 11 yds to the UNC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
99.9%
Davion Gause run for 3 yds to the BC 49Similar
Q4 5:51
2ND & 7
OPP 49
0
99.9%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:51
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+36
99.9%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 36 yds to the BC 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
99.9%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Ty Adams for 5 yds to the BC 8Similar
Q4 5:51
2ND & 5
OPP 8
0
99.9%
Davion Gause run for no gain to the BC 8Similar
Q4 5:51
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+6
99.9%
Jacolby Criswell run for 6 yds to the BC 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
Davion Gause run for 2 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 22DOWNS
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:35100% → 100%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.9%
Datrell Jones run for 6 yds to the BC 31Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-2
99.9%
Datrell Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 29Similar
Q4 0:31
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+4
100.0%
Datrell Jones run for 4 yds to the BC 33Similar
Q4 0:25
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+1
99.9%
run for 1 yd to the BC 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 23TD
2 plays · 34 yds · 0:160% → 1%
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+24
100.0%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to John Copenhaver for 24 yds to the BC 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
99.3%
Davion Gause run for 10 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 24END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
99.8%
[SG] Kneel down by JAMES, Grayson at BC23 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:05
Johnathan Montague Jr. run for 24 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK)
+14.7
TD · Q2 0:40
Grayson James pass complete to Reed Harris for 18 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK)
+14.3
FG · Q3 11:20
Liam Connor 27 yd FG GOOD
+9.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com