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UVA

Virginia 24 at Pittsburgh 19

PITT
2024 · Week 11 · Nov 9, 2024 · Acrisure Stadium
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Win probability · PITT
modelPITT aheadUVA aheadconfidence bandkey playPITT scoreUVA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:18 · Caleb Junko punt for 47 yds , Ethan Davies returns for a loss of 2 yards to the UVA 11
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 18Pregame prior+18.6Home team on offense+0.0Garbage-time factor−0.1Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:48: Daniel Carter run for 1 yd for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK) — PITT win probability +11.7 pts (now 70%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:39: Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Xavier Brown for 24 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK) — UVA win probability +17.8 pts (now 49%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:34: Kobe Pace run for 3 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK) — UVA win probability +22.3 pts (now 71%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:32: Nate Yarnell pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 4 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — PITT win probability +27.7 pts (now 57%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  5. FG · Q4 2:06: Will Bettridge 32 yd FG GOOD — UVA win probability +13.7 pts (now 86%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PITT made the numbers' call on 8 of 9UVA made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 13:02PITT 4th & 22 at PITT 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.4%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:18PITT 4th & 10 at PITT 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.8%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:11UVA 4th & 21 at UVA 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.4%−0.7
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:56PITT 4th & 6 at PITT 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.6%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:57PITT 4th & 7 at PITT 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.0%−0.9
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:34UVA 4th & 11 at PITT 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.7%−0.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:59PITT 4th & 12 at UVA 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.0%−1.2
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.2%
    64% to make
    Punt
    60.1%−4.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:28UVA 4th & 4 at UVA 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.6%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:08PITT 4th & 10 at UVA 30, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.2%−1.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.5%
    56% to make
    Punt
    65.4%−2.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:56UVA 4th & 8 at UVA 19, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.2%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:07PITT 4th & 9 at PITT 16, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.7%−2.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:43UVA 4th & 5 at UVA 28, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.5%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:41PITT 4th & 4 at UVA 27, up 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.6%−0.5
    62% to make
    Punt
    68.0%−7.2
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:55PITT 4th & 11 at PITT 24, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−3.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:59UVA 4th & 7 at UVA 48, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.4%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:06UVA 4th & 1 at PITT 24, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    52.3%−6.7
    68% to make
    Punt
    31.7%−27.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:06UVA 4th & 14 at PITT 15, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.7%−8.8
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.5%
    83% to make
    Punt
    39.2%−29.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PITT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UVA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 14:17UVA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:48PITT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:39UVA Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:34UVA Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:32PITT Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    49.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    49.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PITTDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · -12 yds · 1:5471% → 70%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
70.6%
Pittsburgh Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PITT 16Similar
Q1 14:52
1ST & 15
OWN 16
+4
70.5%
Eli Holstein run for 4 yds to the PITT 20Similar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 11
OWN 20
-10
70.5%
HOLSTEIN, Eli pass deep to the right incomplete intended for WILLIAMS JR., Raphael thrown to the PITT44, clock 14:18. PENALTY PITT Holding on MONTGOMERY, Isaiah enforced 10 yards from the PITT20 to the PITT10 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 14:13
2ND & 21
OWN 10
-1
70.4%
Desmond Reid run for a loss of 1 yard to the PITT 9Similar
Q1 13:34
3RD & 22
OWN 9
+5
70.3%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Raphael Williams Jr. for 5 yds to the PITT 14Similar
Q1 13:09
4TH & 17
OWN 14
-5
70.1%
Pittsburgh Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PITT 9Similar
Q1 13:02
4TH & 22
OWN 9
+16
70.1%
Caleb Junko punt for 40 yds , Ethan Davies returns for 16 yds to the PITT 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 2INT
4 plays · 12 yds · 1:3330% → 31%
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
70.0%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Kobe Pace for 7 yds to the PITT 26Similar
Q1 12:26
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+5
69.8%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Chris Tyree for 5 yds to the PITT 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
69.7%
Anthony Colandrea run for no gain to the PITT 21Similar
Q1 11:17
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
69.5%
Anthony Colandrea pass intercepted Tamon Lynum return for no gain to the PITT 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 1:5270% → 69%
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+6
69.9%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 6 yds to the PITT 13Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 4
OWN 13
+17
69.9%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 17 yds to the PITT 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
69.9%
Pittsburgh Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PITT 25Similar
Q1 10:11
1ST & 15
OWN 25
0
69.8%
Eli Holstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:07
2ND & 15
OWN 25
+5
69.8%
Desmond Reid run for 5 yds to the PITT 30Similar
Q1 9:26
3RD & 10
OWN 30
0
69.5%
Eli Holstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:18
4TH & 10
OWN 30
-2
69.3%
Caleb Junko punt for 47 yds , Ethan Davies returns for a loss of 2 yards to the UVA 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 4PUNT
14 plays · 38 yds · 6:0030% → 31%
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+13
69.6%
Xavier Brown run for 13 yds to the UVA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
69.4%
Xavier Brown run for 1 yd to the UVA 25Similar
Q1 8:14
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+10
69.3%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Andre Greene Jr. for 10 yds to the UVA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
69.0%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
69.1%
(07:29) PACE, Kobe rush to the left for a gain of 6 yards to the UVA41 (LOUIS, Kyle), clock 07:24. PENALTY PITT Offsides on MATLACK, Nate enforced 5 yards from the UVA35 to the UVA40 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 7:02
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+2
68.5%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Kobe Pace for 2 yds to the UVA 42Similar
Q1 6:18
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+5
68.4%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malachi Fields for 5 yds to the UVA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+13
68.1%
Chris Tyree run for 13 yds to the PITT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
67.7%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:51
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-15
67.7%
(04:51) PACE, Kobe rush to the right for a gain of 6 yards to the PITT34 (MCMILLON, Donovan;GEORGE, Brandon), clock 04:47. PENALTY UVA Chop Block on BOLEY, McKale enforced 15 yards from the PITT40 to the UVA45 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 4:36
2ND & 25
OWN 45
-5
68.3%
Anthony Colandrea sacked by Isaiah Neal for a loss of 5 yards to the UVA 40Similar
Q1 3:51
3RD & 30
OWN 40
+9
68.6%
Kobe Pace run for 9 yds to the UVA 49Similar
Q1 3:11
4TH & 21
OWN 49
0
68.8%
Daniel Sparks punt for 16 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1069% → 69%
Q1 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
69.0%
Eli Holstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:01
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-5
69.0%
(03:01) HOLSTEIN, Eli pass short up the middle complete for 6 yards to REID, Desmond caught at the PITT38 and advanced to the PITT41 (MCDONALD, Trey), clock 02:56. PENALTY Before the snap, PITT Illegal Shift enforced 5 yards from the PITT35 to the PITT30. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 2:37
2ND & 15
OWN 30
+9
68.9%
Eli Holstein run for 9 yds to the PITT 39Similar
Q1 2:01
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
69.1%
Eli Holstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:56
4TH & 6
OWN 39
+4
68.7%
Caleb Junko punt for 43 yds , Ethan Davies returns for 4 yds to the UVA 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 6TD
6 plays · 78 yds · 2:2932% → 40%
Q1 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
67.9%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:44
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+28
68.0%
Xavier Brown run for 28 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:59
1ST & 10
50
-2
66.4%
Xavier Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the UVA 48Similar
Q1 0:23
2ND & 12
OWN 48
+24
66.9%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Andre Greene Jr. for 24 yds to the PITT 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+27
65.6%
Suderian Harrison pass complete to Anthony Colandrea for 27 yds to the PITT 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
60.2%
Xavier Brown run for 1 yd for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1062% → 61%
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
62.0%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 5 yds to the PITT 15Similar
Q2 13:39
2ND & 5
OWN 15
-2
61.9%
Daniel Carter run for a loss of 2 yards to the PITT 13Similar
Q2 13:02
3RD & 7
OWN 13
0
60.8%
Eli Holstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:57
4TH & 7
OWN 13
-2
60.5%
Caleb Junko punt for 45 yds , Ethan Davies returns for a loss of 2 yards to the UVA 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 3:1640% → 41%
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
59.8%
Xavier Brown run for 5 yds to the UVA 45Similar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+9
59.4%
Xavier Brown run for 9 yds to the PITT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
58.7%
Xavier Brown run for 3 yds to the PITT 43Similar
Q2 10:59
2ND & 7
OPP 43
-1
58.2%
Anthony Colandrea sacked by Braylan Lovelace for a loss of 1 yard to the PITT 44Similar
Q2 10:08
3RD & 8
OPP 44
-3
57.8%
Anthony Colandrea sacked by Kyle Louis for a loss of 3 yards to the PITT 47Similar
Q2 9:34
4TH & 11
OPP 47
0
59.0%
Daniel Sparks punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 9TD
16 plays · 80 yds · 4:3859% → 70%
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-6
59.1%
Eli Holstein sacked by Kam Robinson for a loss of 6 yards to the PITT 14Similar
Q2 8:53
2ND & 16
OWN 14
+10
58.6%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 10 yds to the PITT 24Similar
Q2 8:24
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+8
57.7%
Eli Holstein run for 8 yds to the PITT 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
58.3%
Eli Holstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
58.2%
Eli Holstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:56
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+15
57.0%
(07:56) HOLSTEIN, Eli pass deep to the left incomplete intended for MUMPFIELD, Konata thrown to the UVA25, clock 07:50. PENALTY UVA Pass Interference on THOMAS, JR., Corey enforced 15 yards to the PITT47 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
59.5%
Desmond Reid run for 8 yds to the UVA 45Similar
Q2 7:33
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+12
60.1%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 12 yds to the UVA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
61.2%
Desmond Reid run for 3 yds to the UVA 30Similar
Q2 6:44
2ND & 7
OPP 30
-10
61.0%
(06:44) HOLSTEIN, Eli pass deep to the left incomplete dropped by WILLIAMS JR., Raphael thrown to the UVA0, clock 06:42. PENALTY PITT Holding on BAER, Ryan enforced 10 yards from the UVA30 to the UVA40 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:41
2ND & 17
OPP 40
+32
58.3%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Desmond Reid for 32 yds to the UVA 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
60.7%
Desmond Reid run for no gain to the UVA 8Similar
Q2 5:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
60.4%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 7 yds to the UVA 1Similar
Q2 4:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
69.8%
Daniel Carter run for 1 yd for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 10INT
3 plays · 4 yds · 1:1036% → 36%
Q2 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
64.4%
Xavier Brown run for 3 yds to the UVA 28Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
63.9%
Xavier Brown run for 1 yd to the UVA 29Similar
Q2 3:36
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-9
64.4%
Anthony Colandrea pass intercepted Kyle Louis return for 9 yds to the UVA 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 11FG
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:2771% → 69%
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
70.8%
Eli Holstein run for 2 yds to the UVA 22Similar
Q2 2:47
2ND & 8
OPP 22
-4
70.5%
Eli Holstein sacked by Jam Jackson and Anthony Britton for a loss of 4 yards to the UVA 26Similar
Q2 2:05
3RD & 12
OPP 26
0
68.7%
Eli Holstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:59
4TH & 12
OPP 26
+44
68.8%
Ben Sauls 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:2130% → 28%
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
70.4%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malachi Fields for 6 yds to the UVA 33Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 4
OWN 33
-1
69.4%
Anthony Colandrea sacked by Tamon Lynum for a loss of 1 yard to the UVA 32Similar
Q2 1:40
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+1
70.6%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Kobe Pace for 1 yd to the UVA 33Similar
Q2 1:28
4TH & 4
OWN 33
+14
71.6%
Daniel Sparks punt for 35 yds , Desmond Reid returns for 14 yds to the PITT 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 13FG
8 plays · 24 yds · 1:0971% → 75%
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
71.2%
Daniel Carter run for 7 yds to the UVA 47Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+4
71.9%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Daniel Carter for 4 yds to the UVA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-10
71.8%
(00:49) HOLSTEIN, Eli pass to the left complete for 8 yards to MUMPFIELD, Konata caught at the UVA35 and advanced to the UVA35, End of Play, clock 00:47. PENALTY PITT Holding on BAER, Ryan enforced 10 yards from the UVA43 to the PITT47 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 20
OWN 47
+23
70.1%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Raphael Williams Jr. for 23 yds to the UVA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
72.9%
Eli Holstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
72.8%
Eli Holstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:17
3RD & 10
OPP 30
0
71.3%
Eli Holstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:08
4TH & 10
OPP 30
+48
75.2%
Ben Sauls 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
74.7%
(00:03) [NHSG] Kneel down by COLANDREA, Anthony at UVA24 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:5728% → 26%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
72.3%
Anthony Colandrea run for 6 yds to the UVA 23Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+1
71.9%
Xavier Brown run for 1 yd to the UVA 24Similar
Q3 13:38
3RD & 3
OWN 24
-5
72.9%
Anthony Colandrea sacked by Rasheem Biles for a loss of 5 yards to the UVA 19Similar
Q3 12:56
4TH & 8
OWN 19
0
74.4%
Daniel Sparks punt for 66 yds, downed at the PITT 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:3575% → 72%
Q3 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
74.5%
Desmond Reid run for 1 yd to the PITT 16Similar
Q3 12:18
2ND & 9
OWN 16
0
74.4%
Eli Holstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:13
3RD & 9
OWN 16
0
73.2%
Eli Holstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:07
4TH & 9
OWN 16
-7
72.4%
Caleb Junko punt for 54 yds , Ethan Davies returns for a loss of 7 yards to the UVA 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0928% → 26%
Q3 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
72.5%
Anthony Colandrea run for 4 yds to the UVA 27Similar
Q3 11:29
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+1
71.8%
Anthony Colandrea run for 1 yd to the UVA 28Similar
Q3 10:47
3RD & 5
OWN 28
0
73.1%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:43
4TH & 5
OWN 28
+14
74.2%
Daniel Sparks punt for 56 yds , Desmond Reid returns for 14 yds to the PITT 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 18MISSED FG
8 plays · 43 yds · 2:4875% → 76%
Q3 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
74.9%
Desmond Reid run for 3 yds to the PITT 33Similar
Q3 10:06
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+8
75.3%
Desmond Reid run for 8 yds to the PITT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
76.7%
Desmond Reid run for 6 yds to the PITT 47Similar
Q3 9:27
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+15
77.1%
Virginia Penalty, Targeting on MCDONALD, Trey enforced (Trey McDonald) to the UVA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
77.8%
Desmond Reid run for 4 yds to the UVA 29Similar
Q3 8:41
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+4
77.8%
Nate Yarnell run for 4 yds to the UVA 25Similar
Q3 8:04
3RD & 2
OPP 25
-2
77.0%
Desmond Reid run for a loss of 2 yards to the UVA 27Similar
Q3 7:41
4TH & 4
OPP 27
+45
75.5%
Ben Sauls 45 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 19TD
5 plays · 73 yds · 1:5728% → 49%
Q3 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
72.4%
Anthony Colandrea run for 1 yd to the UVA 28Similar
Q3 7:07
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+10
72.7%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Tyler Neville for 10 yds to the UVA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
71.4%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Chris Tyree for 9 yds to the UVA 47Similar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+29
69.1%
Anthony Colandrea run for 29 yds to the PITT 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
51.2%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Xavier Brown for 24 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 20INT
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:0358% → 58%
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
58.4%
Pittsburgh Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the PITT 20Similar
Q3 5:36
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-45
58.0%
Nate Yarnell pass intercepted Jonas Sanker return for 45 yds to the PITT 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 21TD
4 plays · 20 yds · 1:4649% → 71%
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
51.0%
Anthony Colandrea run for 5 yds to the PITT 15Similar
Q3 4:38
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+1
50.2%
Kobe Pace run for 1 yd to the PITT 14Similar
Q3 3:57
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+11
51.5%
Kobe Pace run for 11 yds to the PITT 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
29.2%
Kobe Pace run for 3 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:2934% → 30%
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
33.6%
Desmond Reid run for 2 yds to the PITT 17Similar
Q3 2:57
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+8
33.4%
Nate Yarnell run for 8 yds to the PITT 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
33.3%
Nate Yarnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
33.1%
Nate Yarnell sacked by Anthony Britton for a loss of 1 yard to the PITT 24Similar
Q3 2:04
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
31.0%
Nate Yarnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:55
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+16
30.0%
Caleb Junko punt for 47 yds , Ethan Davies returns for 16 yds to the UVA 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:4472% → 71%
Q3 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
28.1%
Xavier Brown run for 1 yd to the UVA 46Similar
Q3 1:04
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+3
27.4%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Chris Tyree for 3 yds to the UVA 49Similar
Q3 0:10
3RD & 6
OWN 49
-1
26.8%
Anthony Colandrea sacked by Jimmy Scott for a loss of 1 yard to the UVA 48Similar
Q4 14:59
4TH & 7
OWN 48
0
29.0%
Daniel Sparks punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Desmond Reid at the PITT 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 24TD
13 plays · 86 yds · 4:1931% → 57%
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
30.8%
Nate Yarnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+34
30.6%
Desmond Reid run for 34 yds to the PITT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
34.5%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Daejon Reynolds for 9 yds to the UVA 43Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+4
35.1%
Desmond Reid run for 4 yds to the UVA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
33.0%
Nate Yarnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
32.8%
Nate Yarnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:33
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+11
31.1%
Nate Yarnell run for 11 yds to the UVA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
34.4%
Desmond Reid run for a loss of 1 yard to the UVA 29Similar
Q4 12:39
2ND & 11
OPP 29
+20
33.9%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 20 yds to the UVA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
33.5%
Desmond Reid run for 6 yds to the UVA 3Similar
Q4 11:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
33.0%
Nate Yarnell run for a loss of 1 yard to the UVA 4Similar
Q4 10:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
56.8%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 4 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 25FG
19 plays · 60 yds · 8:2456% → 86%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
43.6%
Xavier Brown run for 1 yd to the UVA 26Similar
Q4 9:39
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-10
43.6%
(09:39) COLANDREA, Anthony scrambles up the middle for a gain of 16 yards to the UVA42 (SCOTT, Jimmy), clock 09:34. PENALTY UVA Holding on STEVENS, Brian enforced 10 yards from the UVA26 to the UVA16 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 9:12
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+4
44.3%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Xavier Brown for 4 yds to the UVA 20Similar
Q4 8:41
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+25
45.4%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Chris Tyree for 25 yds to the UVA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
38.3%
Anthony Colandrea run for 10 yds to the PITT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
37.0%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Kobe Pace for 12 yds to the PITT 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
33.7%
Kobe Pace run for 6 yds to the PITT 27Similar
Q4 7:01
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+2
33.1%
Kobe Pace run for 2 yds to the PITT 25Similar
Q4 6:43
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+1
35.0%
Kobe Pace run for 1 yd to the PITT 24Similar
Q4 6:06
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+3
36.9%
Kobe Pace run for 3 yds to the PITT 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
29.1%
(05:18) COLANDREA, Anthony pass short to the right complete for 8 yards to TYREE, Chris to the PITT13 (MCMILLON, Donovan), out of bounds, clock 05:15. PENALTY PITT Offsides on MATLACK, Nate enforced 5 yards from the PITT21 to the PITT16 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 5:05
1ST & 5
OPP 16
0
28.9%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:05
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+4
28.9%
Kobe Pace run for 4 yds to the PITT 12Similar
Q4 4:27
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+1
27.2%
Kobe Pace run for 1 yd to the PITT 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
22.9%
Xavier Brown run for no gain to the PITT 11Similar
Q4 2:59
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
21.1%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:52
3RD & 10
OPP 11
-4
23.7%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Andre Greene Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the PITT 15Similar
Q4 2:06
4TH & 14
OPP 15
+32
14.3%
Will Bettridge 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 26INT
5 plays · 28 yds · 0:2023% → 26%
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
23.4%
Nate Yarnell run for 2 yds to the PITT 27Similar
Q4 1:57
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+26
21.8%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Desmond Reid for 11 yds to the UVA 38 for a 1ST down Virginia Penalty, Roughing the Passer on BUTLER, Kameron enforced (Kam Butler) to the UVA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
27.4%
Nate Yarnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
26.0%
Nate Yarnell pass intercepted Corey Thomas Jr. return for no gain to the UVA 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 27END OF GAME
7 plays · 12 yds · 1:2490% → 94%
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
9.8%
Xavier Brown run for 3 yds to the UVA 17Similar
Q4 1:32
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+9
8.8%
Kobe Pace run for 9 yds to the UVA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
5.8%
Kobe Pace run for 2 yds to the UVA 28Similar
Q4 0:46
2ND & 8
OWN 28
-1
5.6%
(00:46) [NH] Kneel down by COLANDREA, Anthony at UVA27 (team loss of 1), clock 00:33.Similar
Q4 0:14
3RD & 9
OWN 27
-1
6.0%
(00:14) [NH] Kneel down by COLANDREA, Anthony at UVA26 (team loss of 1), clock 00:10.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:32
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 4 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+27.7
TD · Q3 3:34
Kobe Pace run for 3 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)
-22.3
TD · Q3 5:39
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Xavier Brown for 24 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)
-17.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com