2024 · Week 11 · Nov 9, 2024 · Lane Stadium
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Win probability · VT
modelVT aheadCLEM aheadconfidence bandkey playVT scoreCLEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:29 · Peter Moore punt for 54 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 12:46: Quentin Reddish 77 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (John Love Kick) — VT win probability +8.6 pts (now 45%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:25: Cade Klubnik pass complete to Cole Turner for 29 yds for a TD Clemson Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Cole Turner) to the VT 0 (Nolan Hauser KICK) — CLEM win probability +17.1 pts (now 62%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:34: Cade Klubnik pass complete to T.J. Moore for 41 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK) — CLEM win probability +15.8 pts (now 74%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q4 13:08: Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 12 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK) — CLEM win probability +13.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 11:24: Phil Mafah run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard line — CLEM win probability +7.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
VT made the numbers' call on 7 of 9CLEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
- Q1 13:29VT 4th & 2 at VT 46, tiedClose callPunted · 37.0% before the snapGo for it37.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call36.9%−0.1average punt
- Q1 5:23VT 4th & 6 at VT 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 39.3% before the snapGo for it39.3%−0.339% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call39.6%average punt
- Q1 0:30CLEM 4th & 2 at VT 26, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call59.7%57% to convertField goal59.3%−0.464% to makePunt57.5%−2.2average punt
- Q2 12:46CLEM 4th & 3 at VT 29, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 58.7% before the snapGo for it58.9%52% to convertField goalTheir call58.4%−0.458% to makePunt56.1%−2.8average punt
- Q2 10:00CLEM 4th & 9 at CLEM 48, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.7% before the snapGo for it48.0%−0.532% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call48.6%average punt
- Q2 5:04VT 4th & 8 at CLEM 48, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.5% before the snapGo for it55.3%−<0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.3%average punt
- Q2 3:06CLEM 4th & 5 at VT 44, down 7Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 44.3% before the snapGo for it44.2%41% to convertField goal42.6%−1.527% to makePuntTheir call43.1%−1.0average punt
- Q2 1:10VT 4th & 19 at CLEM 37, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.4% before the snapGo for it56.2%−1.512% to convertField goalTheir call57.8%40% to makePunt56.8%−1.0average punt
- Q2 0:52CLEM 4th & 9 at CLEM 38, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.4% before the snapGo for it38.7%−1.332% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call40.0%average punt
- Q3 9:10VT 4th & 16 at VT 8, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 46.6% before the snapGo for it43.5%−4.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call47.7%average punt
- Q3 6:00VT 4th & 21 at VT 25, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.3% before the snapGo for it26.1%−5.28% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call31.3%average punt
- Q3 4:58CLEM 4th & 5 at CLEM 30, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.2% before the snapGo for it70.7%−0.841% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call71.5%average punt
- Q4 11:53VT 4th & 3 at VT 47, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call13.9%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt12.7%−1.2average punt
- Q4 10:32CLEM 4th & 11 at midfield, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.0% before the snapGo for it91.3%−0.726% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.1%average punt
- Q4 8:32VT 4th & 4 at VT 23, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.1% before the snapGo for it6.8%−0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.9%average punt
- Q4 6:11CLEM 4th & 1 at CLEM 38, up 14Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 94.8% before the snapGo for it95.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.0%−1.0average punt
- Q4 5:10CLEM 4th & 6 at VT 16, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.0% before the snapGo for it94.2%−0.138% to convertField goalTheir call94.3%81% to makePunt90.4%−4.0average punt
- Q4 1:43VT 4th & 6 at CLEM 14, down 17Close callWent for it · 2.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.4%−<0.137% to convertField goal2.4%84% to makePunt1.8%−0.6average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2CLEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q2 12:46VT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call48.1%97% to makeGo for two48.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:25CLEM Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call49.2%97% to makeGo for two49.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:34CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call66.6%97% to makeGo for two66.4%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 13:08CLEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call85.1%97% to makeGo for two84.7%−0.345% to convert
- Q4 1:43VT Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call5.7%97% to makeGo for two5.4%−0.345% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartVTDrive 1PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2132% → 32%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 2INT15 plays · 48 yds · 6:2168% → 65%
Q1 12:11
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+15
33.0%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Troy Stellato for 15 yds to the CLEM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+5
33.2%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Antonio Williams for 5 yds to the CLEM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:39
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+15
33.8%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Antonio Williams for 15 yds to the VT 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-8
33.6%
Clemson Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Cade Klubnik) to the VT 33Similar
Q1 7:53
2ND & 18
OPP 34
+10
34.0%
Phil Mafah run for 20 yds to the VT 14 Clemson Penalty, Offensive Holding (Cade Klubnik) to the VT 32Similar
Q1 6:59
3RD & 16
OPP 32
0
34.7%
Cade Klubnik pass intercepted Jaylen Jones return for no gain to the VT 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 27 yds · 1:2435% → 35%
CLEMDrive 4DOWNS11 plays · 33 yds · 4:4765% → 63%
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-4
35.4%
Cade Klubnik sacked by Sam Brumfield for a loss of 4 yards to the CLEM 49Similar
Q1 2:28
2ND & 14
OWN 49
+17
36.0%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to T.J. Moore for 17 yds to the VT 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:08
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+4
35.7%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Antonio Williams for 4 yds to the VT 26Similar
Q1 0:30
4TH & 2
OPP 26
-10
36.7%
Cade Klubnik sacked by Cole Nelson for a loss of 10 yards to the VT 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 5FUMBLE2 plays · 0 yds · 0:2439% → 39%
CLEMDrive 6MISSED FG TD5 plays · 7 yds · 2:0664% → 55%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
36.2%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Phil Mafah for no gain to the VT 36Similar
Q2 13:46
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+5
36.7%
KLUBNIK, Cade pass deep to the left incomplete intended for WILLIAMS, Antonio thrown to the HOKIES0, clock 13:46. PENALTY HOKIES Offsides on BURGOS, Keyshawn enforced 5 yards from the HOKIES32 to the HOKIES27 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:46
4TH & 3
OPP 29
+77
45.1%
Quentin Reddish 77 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (John Love Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 23 yds · 2:4554% → 51%
VTDrive 8PUNT11 plays · 40 yds · 4:4749% → 54%
CLEMDrive 9PUNT8 plays · 36 yds · 2:1346% → 42%
Q2 3:52
2ND & 13
OWN 48
+8
53.7%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 8 yds to the VT 44Similar
Q2 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
56.3%
(02:57) TUTEN, Bhayshul rush to the left for a loss of 2 yards to the HOKIES23 (LUKUS, Jeadyn), clock 02:54. PENALTY TIGERS Face mask on LUKUS, Jeadyn enforced 15 yards from the HOKIES25 to the HOKIES40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
58.0%
(02:44) DRONES, Kyron pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for GOSNELL, Stephen thrown to the TIGERS13, clock 02:40. PENALTY TIGERS Holding on LUKUS, Jeadyn enforced 10 yards from the HOKIES40 to the HOKIES50 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 10MISSED FG8 plays · 38 yds · 1:2258% → 55%
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
50
+22
57.7%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Bhayshul Tuten for 22 yds to the CLEM 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 11PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1343% → 40%
Q2 0:52
4TH & 9
OWN 38
0
59.8%
Aidan Swanson punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Lane at the VT 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 12END OF HALF4 plays · 3 yds · 0:1957% → 56%
Q2 0:39
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+7
56.5%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Da'Quan Felton for 7 yds to the VT 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 13TD9 plays · 60 yds · 3:3443% → 62%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
56.6%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Antonio Williams for 1 yd to the CLEM 26Similar
Q3 14:25
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
57.1%
(14:25) KLUBNIK, Cade pass deep to the right incomplete intended for MOORE, T.J. broken up by STRONG, Dorian at the HOKIES48, clock 14:22. PENALTY HOKIES Holding on JONES, Jaylen enforced 10 yards from the TIGERS26 to the TIGERS36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+29
38.4%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Cole Turner for 29 yds for a TD Clemson Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Cole Turner) to the VT 0 (Nolan Hauser KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 14PUNT5 plays · -6 yds · 2:0246% → 45%
Q3 10:30
2ND & 10
OWN 14
-5
46.2%
(10:30) DRONES, Kyron pass to the right complete for 28 yards to LANE, Jaylin caught at the HOKIES26 and advanced to the HOKIES42 (GRIFFIN, Kylon), clock 10:20. PENALTY Before the snap, HOKIES Illegal Shift enforced 5 yards from the HOKIES14 to the HOKIES9. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 15
OWN 9
-1
46.3%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Bhayshul Tuten for a loss of 1 yard to the VT 8Similar
Q3 9:10
4TH & 16
OWN 8
0
44.5%
Peter Moore punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Antonio Williams at the VT 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 15TD4 plays · 44 yds · 1:3260% → 74%
VTDrive 16PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 1:2632% → 29%
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+10
31.7%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Benji Gosnell for 10 yds to the VT 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:46
3RD & 10
OWN 36
-11
30.3%
Kyron Drones sacked by Sammy Brown for a loss of 11 yards to the VT 25Similar
Q3 6:00
4TH & 21
OWN 25
0
29.1%
Peter Moore punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Antonio Williams at the CLEM 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5472% → 71%
Q3 4:58
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+4
29.0%
Aidan Swanson punt for 44 yds , Jaylin Lane returns for 4 yds to the VT 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 18INT3 plays · 33 yds · 0:5232% → 35%
CLEMDrive 19TD10 plays · 93 yds · 5:4471% → 94%
Q3 2:28
3RD & 6
OWN 11
+23
28.0%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Antonio Williams for 23 yds to the CLEM 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
23.4%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Troy Stellato for 5 yds to the VT 35Similar
Q4 14:27
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+19
20.9%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 19 yds to the VT 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
19.8%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Troy Stellato for no gain to the VT 12Similar
Q4 13:08
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+12
6.5%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 12 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 20DOWNS5 plays · 24 yds · 1:1412% → 14%
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
12.4%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Da'Quan Felton for 15 yds to the VT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 21PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 0:5294% → 94%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 22PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:569% → 7%
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
9.3%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 6 yds to the VT 23Similar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 4
OWN 23
-10
9.9%
(09:55) SCHLEE, Collin pass deep to the left complete for 25 yards to GOSNELL, Benji caught at the HOKIES46 and advanced to the HOKIES48 (CARTER, Barrett), out of bounds, clock 09:49. PENALTY HOKIES Holding on CHAPLIN, Xavier enforced 10 yards from the HOKIES23 to the HOKIES13 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:32
4TH & 4
OWN 23
+7
6.8%
Peter Moore punt for 55 yds , Antonio Williams returns for 7 yds to the CLEM 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 23PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 2:1495% → 97%
Q4 6:11
4TH & 1
OWN 38
0
2.6%
Aidan Swanson punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Lane at the VT 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 24INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
5.3%
Collin Schlee pass intercepted R.J. Mickens return for no gain to the VT 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 25FG5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5298% → 98%
VTDrive 26TD16 plays · 75 yds · 3:263% → 5%
Q4 4:49
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+7
2.9%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Da'Quan Felton for 7 yds to the VT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+22
2.8%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Ali Jennings for 22 yds to the CLEM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:16
4TH & 4
OPP 37
+5
2.9%
Clemson Penalty, Offsides (Sammy Brown) to the CLEM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:08
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+5
3.0%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Ayden Greene for 5 yds to the CLEM 27Similar
Q4 2:34
4TH & 5
OPP 27
+9
2.8%
(02:34) SCHLEE, Collin sacked for a loss of 6 yards at the TIGERS33 (WOODAZ, Wade), clock 02:28. PENALTY TIGERS Holding on GRIFFIN, Kylon enforced 9 yards from the TIGERS27 to the TIGERS18 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+4
3.2%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Da'Quan Felton for 4 yds to the CLEM 14Similar
Q4 1:43
4TH & 6
OPP 14
+14
5.4%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Ayden Greene for 14 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 27END OF GAME7 plays · 7 yds · 1:1197% → 97%
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:25
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Cole Turner for 29 yds for a TD Clemson Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Cole Turner) to the VT 0 (Nolan Hauser KICK)
-17.1
TD · Q3 7:34
Cade Klubnik pass complete to T.J. Moore for 41 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK)
-15.8
TD · Q4 13:08
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 12 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK)
-13.3