2024 · Week 11 · Nov 9, 2024 · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · BC
modelBC aheadSYR aheadconfidence bandkey playBC scoreSYR score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:16 · Jackson Kennedy 25 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 8:36: LeQuint Allen run for 4 yds for a TD (Jackson Kennedy KICK) — SYR win probability +16.5 pts (now 64%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:47: Kye Robichaux run for 14 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK) — BC win probability +17.5 pts (now 65%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:38: Jordan McDonald run for 13 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK) — BC win probability +16.4 pts (now 85%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
- TD · Q4 11:16: Kyle McCord pass complete to Darrell Gill Jr. for 12 yds for a TD (Jackson Kennedy KICK) — SYR win probability +21.2 pts (now 43%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- TD · Q4 6:51: Grayson James pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for 18 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK) — BC win probability +19.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
BC made the numbers' call on 7 of 8SYR made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
- Q1 12:23SYR 4th & 6 at BC 44, tiedClose callPunted · 38.5% before the snapGo for it38.5%40% to convertField goal38.4%−0.127% to makePuntTheir call38.5%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 7:49BC 4th & 11 at SYR 11, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.6% before the snapGo for it61.3%−0.222% to convertField goalTheir call61.6%87% to makePunt60.5%−1.1average punt
- Q1 6:29SYR 4th & 16 at SYR 14, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 38.2% before the snapGo for it37.8%−0.614% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.4%average punt
- Q1 4:43BC 4th & 15 at BC 40, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 60.5% before the snapGo for it60.2%−0.517% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call60.7%average punt
- Q1 0:01SYR 4th & 17 at SYR 45, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.3% before the snapGo for it32.7%−1.114% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.8%average punt
- Q2 14:01BC 4th & 4 at BC 18, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.5% before the snapGo for it65.5%−0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call65.5%average punt
- Q2 11:57SYR 4th & 2 at BC 47, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call34.3%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt33.6%−0.8average punt
- Q2 4:55BC 4th & 6 at BC 29, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.6% before the snapGo for it68.2%−0.439% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call68.5%average punt
- Q2 0:00SYR 4th & 18 at BC 49, tiedNumbers favored punt by 3.2 ptsWent for it · 42.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call39.0%−3.213% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt42.2%average punt
- Q3 12:53BC 4th & 16 at BC 19, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 57.6% before the snapGo for it55.6%−3.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call58.8%average punt
- Q3 7:33BC 4th & 1 at SYR 43, up 2Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call65.7%70% to convertField goal60.4%−5.228% to makePunt61.8%−3.9average punt
- Q4 6:51BC 4th & 1 at SYR 18, up 2Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call68.2%71% to convertField goal60.2%−8.079% to makePunt39.2%−29.0average punt
- Q4 4:44SYR 4th & 10 at BC 38, down 9Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call9.1%30% to convertField goal8.9%−0.238% to makePunt8.5%−0.6average punt
- Q4 3:42BC 4th & 4 at BC 44, up 9Close callPunted · 91.9% before the snapGo for it91.9%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call91.8%−0.1average punt
- Q4 1:16SYR 4th & 5 at BC 7, down 9Close callKicked a field goal · 7.3% before the snapGo for it6.3%34% to convertField goalTheir call5.6%−0.791% to makePunt3.8%−2.5average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BC made the numbers' call on 4 of 5SYR made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 2:43BC Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call64.7%97% to makeGo for two64.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:55BC Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call75.6%97% to makeGo for two75.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:32SYR Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call30.5%97% to makeGo for two30.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:10SYR Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call37.9%97% to makeGo for two37.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:36SYR Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call56.9%97% to makeGo for two56.7%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 7:47BC Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call55.9%97% to makeGo for two55.7%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 0:38BC Touchdown, up 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call85.5%97% to makeGo for two85.3%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 11:16SYR Touchdown, down 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call33.1%97% to makeGo for two32.6%−0.545% to convert
- Q4 6:51BC Touchdown, up 8 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call89.7%−0.297% to makeGo for two90.0%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSYRDrive 1PUNT6 plays · 31 yds · 2:3739% → 39%
BCDrive 2MISSED FG10 plays · 76 yds · 4:3462% → 62%
SYRDrive 3PUNT5 plays · -6 yds · 1:2039% → 38%
Q1 7:49
3RD & 6
OWN 24
-10
61.4%
MCCORD, Kyle scrambles to the left for a gain of 48 yards to the BC28 (TUCKER, Max). PENALTY SU Holding on REED, J'Onre enforced 10 yards from the SU24 to the SU14 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 6:29
4TH & 16
OWN 14
0
61.7%
Jack Stonehouse punt for 41 yds , Isaiah Farris returns for no gain to the BC 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 4PUNT4 plays · -5 yds · 1:4662% → 60%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 5FUMBLE2 plays · 7 yds · 0:3639% → 39%
BCDrive 6TD3 plays · 42 yds · 1:2462% → 66%
SYRDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 20 yds · 2:4235% → 33%
Q1 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-11
65.3%
Kyle McCord sacked by Quintayvious Hutchins for a loss of 11 yards to the SYR 14Similar
Q1 2:43
3RD & 21
OWN 14
+38
65.9%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Darrell Gill Jr. for 38 yds to the BC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:43
3RD & 9
OPP 47
-8
64.7%
Kyle McCord sacked by Donovan Ezeiruaku for a loss of 8 yards to the SYR 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 8PUNT6 plays · 6 yds · 0:5966% → 65%
SYRDrive 9DOWNS4 plays · 8 yds · 2:0435% → 34%
BCDrive 10TD6 plays · 53 yds · 3:0269% → 77%
Q2 8:55
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+9
76.9%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Lewis Bond for 9 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 11TD7 plays · 88 yds · 2:2325% → 35%
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+30
74.6%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 30 yds to the SYR 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+14
74.2%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Jackson Meeks for 14 yds to the BC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
72.7%
MCCORD, Kyle pass deep to the left incomplete intended for MEEKS, Jackson thrown to the BC4. PENALTY BC Pass Interference on TUCKER, Max enforced 15 yards to the BC17 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
65.3%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 17 yds for a TD (Jackson Kennedy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 12PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3770% → 69%
Q2 6:32
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+5
69.6%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Johnathan Montague Jr. for 5 yds to the BC 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 13TD6 plays · 67 yds · 2:4531% → 47%
BCDrive 14INT4 plays · 16 yds · 0:4560% → 62%
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
61.9%
Thomas Castellanos pass intercepted Jayden Bellamy return for no gain to the SYR 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 15DOWNS6 plays · 4 yds · 1:2447% → 43%
BCDrive 16PUNT4 plays · -6 yds · 2:0760% → 58%
SYRDrive 17TD9 plays · 59 yds · 4:1746% → 64%
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
54.4%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Trebor Pena for 5 yds to the SYR 46Similar
Q3 12:53
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+5
54.3%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Trebor Pena for 5 yds to the BC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:53
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+15
52.9%
MCCORD, Kyle pass deep to the right incomplete intended for MEEKS, Jackson broken up by MCSHANE, Ashton at the BC17. PENALTY BC Pass Interference on MCSHANE, Ashton enforced 15 yards to the BC28 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:53
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+11
52.1%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Jackson Meeks for 11 yds to the BC 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 18TD3 plays · 75 yds · 0:4941% → 65%
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+56
41.3%
Kye Robichaux run for 41 yds to the SYR 34 for a 1ST down Syracuse Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Alijah Clark) to the SYR 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 19SF1 play · -22 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
62.6%
Kyle McCord sacked for a loss of 22 yards for a SAFETY TEAM fumbled, recovered by SYR , return for 0 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 20TD12 plays · 67 yds · 6:5564% → 85%
Q3 7:33
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+11
65.8%
Grayson James pass complete to Lewis Bond for 11 yds to the BC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:33
3RD & 7
OPP 38
+10
66.9%
Grayson James pass complete to Lewis Bond for 10 yds to the SYR 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
68.4%
Grayson James pass complete to Lewis Bond for 6 yds to the SYR 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 21TD11 plays · 75 yds · 4:2218% → 43%
Q3 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+12
82.7%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Braden Davis for 12 yds to the SYR 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
81.5%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 7 yds to the SYR 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+15
80.5%
Kyle McCord pass complete to LeQuint Allen for 15 yds to the BC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+10
79.6%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Trebor Pena for 10 yds to the BC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
78.4%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 5 yds to the BC 27Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+4
77.9%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Jackson Meeks for 4 yds to the BC 23Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+10
79.6%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Trebor Pena for 10 yds to the BC 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:16
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+12
56.6%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Darrell Gill Jr. for 12 yds for a TD (Jackson Kennedy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 22TD10 plays · 78 yds · 4:2567% → 90%
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
68.0%
Boston College Penalty, Offensive Holding (Lewis Bond) to the BC 40Similar
Q4 11:16
1ST & 6
OWN 40
+15
69.9%
Syracuse Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Justin Barron) to the SYR 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:16
3RD & 7
OPP 24
+6
70.5%
Grayson James pass complete to Lewis Bond for 6 yds to the SYR 18Similar
Q4 6:51
4TH & 1
OPP 18
+18
90.1%
Grayson James pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for 18 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 23DOWNS10 plays · 37 yds · 2:0711% → 10%
Q4 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
88.8%
Kyle McCord pass complete to LeQuint Allen for 7 yds to the SYR 32Similar
Q4 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
87.5%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 8 yds to the SYR 43Similar
Q4 6:51
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+19
86.5%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 19 yds to the BC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 24PUNT6 plays · 6 yds · 1:0292% → 93%
Q4 3:42
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
93.3%
Liam Connor punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Trebor Pena at the SYR 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 25FG11 plays · 73 yds · 2:267% → 17%
Q4 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
93.5%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 11 yds to the BC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+13
93.1%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Jackson Meeks for 13 yds to the BC 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-5
92.1%
MCCORD, Kyle pass deep up the middle complete for 16 yards to GADSDEN II, Oronde caught at the BC11 and advanced to the BC11 (DAVIS, Carter). PENALTY SU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on BROWN-MILLER, Travis enforced 5 yards from the BC27 to the BC32 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+29
94.6%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Jackson Meeks for 29 yds Jackson Meeks fumbled, recovered by SYR return for 0 yds for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 15
OPP 32
+20
95.1%
Kyle McCord pass complete to LeQuint Allen for 20 yds to the BC 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 10
OPP 12
+5
95.1%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 5 yds to the BC 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 26END OF GAME5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1695% → 96%
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:16
Kyle McCord pass complete to Darrell Gill Jr. for 12 yds for a TD (Jackson Kennedy KICK)
-21.2
TD · Q4 6:51
Grayson James pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for 18 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK)
+19.7
TD · Q3 7:47
Kye Robichaux run for 14 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK)
+17.5