2024 · Week 10 · Nov 2, 2024 · JMA Wireless Dome
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Win probability · SYR
modelSYR aheadVT aheadconfidence bandkey playSYR scoreVT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:28 · Jack Stonehouse punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Lane at the VT 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 2:53: LeQuint Allen run for 1 yd for a TD (Kyle McCord pass to Oronde Gadsden II for Two-Point Conversion) — SYR win probability +22.0 pts (now 50%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
- TD · Q4 14:22: Kyle McCord pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 28 yds for a TD (Jackson Kennedy PAT BLOCKED) — SYR win probability +19.6 pts (now 70%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- TD · Q4 11:04: Malachi Thomas run for 15 yds for a TD (John Love KICK) — VT win probability +28.3 pts (now 73%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
- TD · Q4 0:29: LeQuint Allen run for 1 yd for a TD (Jackson Kennedy KICK) — SYR win probability +40.0 pts (now 67%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- TD · OT 0:00: LeQuint Allen 9 Yd Run (Jackson Kennedy Kick) — SYR win probability +21.4 pts (now 87%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
SYR made the numbers' call on 7 of 7VT made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 14:03VT 4th & 9 at VT 17, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 57.3% before the snapGo for it57.3%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call57.4%average punt
- Q1 12:28SYR 4th & 5 at SYR 42, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 43.0% before the snapGo for it43.0%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call43.1%average punt
- Q1 7:50SYR 4th & 13 at SYR 17, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.1% before the snapGo for it40.8%−0.519% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call41.3%average punt
- Q2 14:56SYR 4th & 9 at VT 26, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.9% before the snapGo for it35.5%−0.531% to convertField goalTheir call36.0%64% to makePunt32.8%−3.1average punt
- Q2 10:37VT 4th & 25 at VT 21, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.5% before the snapGo for it61.2%−2.96% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call64.1%average punt
- Q2 10:37SYR 4th & 1 at VT 41, down 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call36.6%70% to convertField goal34.1%−2.432% to makePunt34.5%−2.0average punt
- Q2 5:19VT 4th & 1 at VT 44, up 11Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 66.9% before the snapGo for it67.0%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call65.9%−1.1average punt
- Q2 4:18SYR 4th & 4 at SYR 11, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.4% before the snapGo for it30.1%−0.547% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.6%average punt
- Q2 2:29VT 4th & 18 at VT 40, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.8% before the snapGo for it66.2%−1.113% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call67.3%average punt
- Q3 13:22SYR 4th & 15 at SYR 30, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.7% before the snapGo for it26.6%−1.716% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.3%average punt
- Q3 5:27VT 4th & 9 at VT 31, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.1% before the snapGo for it73.4%−2.731% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call76.1%average punt
- Q4 9:32SYR 4th & 18 at SYR 17, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.5% before the snapGo for it27.6%−4.512% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.1%average punt
- Q4 5:16VT 4th & 7 at SYR 9, up 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.5% before the snapGo for it71.4%−0.930% to convertField goalTheir call72.4%89% to makePunt56.0%−16.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SYR made the numbers' call on 3 of 4VT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 8:45VT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call57.5%97% to makeGo for two57.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:31VT Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call61.1%97% to makeGo for two61.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:44VT Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.6%97% to makeGo for two84.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:08SYR Touchdown, down 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call23.5%97% to makeGo for two23.4%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 2:53SYR Touchdown, down 5 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick37.2%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call37.0%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 14:22SYR Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call66.2%97% to makeGo for two66.0%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 11:04VT Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call62.2%97% to makeGo for two61.9%−0.345% to convert
- Q4 0:29SYR Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call49.0%97% to makeGo for two42.1%−7.045% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartVTDrive 1PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5262% → 62%
SYRDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3538% → 39%
Q1 12:28
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
38.8%
Jack Stonehouse punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Lane at the VT 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 3TD8 plays · 80 yds · 3:4361% → 63%
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
38.9%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Da'Quan Felton for 7 yds to the VT 27Similar
Q1 12:28
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+6
38.8%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Malachi Thomas for 6 yds to the VT 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-6
38.8%
Collin Schlee sacked by Rashard Perry for a loss of 6 yards to the VT 27Similar
Q1 12:28
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+7
38.8%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Stephen Gosnell for 7 yds to the VT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+48
38.7%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Stephen Gosnell for 48 yds to the SYR 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 4PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 0:4838% → 37%
Q1 7:50
4TH & 13
OWN 17
+3
37.4%
Jack Stonehouse punt for 59 yds , Jaylin Lane returns for 3 yds to the VT 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 5TD7 plays · 73 yds · 3:1963% → 67%
SYRDrive 6FG12 plays · 66 yds · 4:3034% → 35%
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+15
34.3%
Kyle McCord pass complete to LeQuint Allen for 15 yds to the SYR 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
34.8%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Jackson Meeks for 7 yds to the SYR 44Similar
Q1 4:26
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+6
35.2%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Trebor Pena for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:26
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+5
35.3%
MCCORD, Kyle pass up the middle incomplete intended for PENA, Trebor thrown to the VATECH29. PENALTY VATECH Offsides enforced 5 yards from the VATECH43 to the VATECH38 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
35.7%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Jackson Meeks for 2 yds to the VT 25Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 25
-1
33.2%
Kyle McCord pass complete to LeQuint Allen for a loss of 1 yard to the VT 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 7PUNT8 plays · -4 yds · 4:1965% → 66%
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-12
34.4%
Collin Schlee sacked by Marlowe Wax and David Omopariola for a loss of 12 yards to the VT 24Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 22
OWN 24
+9
35.0%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Malachi Thomas for 9 yds to the VT 33Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 18
OWN 28
-7
35.3%
Collin Schlee sacked by Marlowe Wax for a loss of 7 yards to the VT 21Similar
Q2 10:37
4TH & 25
OWN 21
+9
33.7%
Peter Moore punt for 38 yds , Trebor Pena returns for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 8INT5 plays · 11 yds · 2:4035% → 33%
Q2 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
32.9%
Kyle McCord pass intercepted Mansoor Delane return for no gain to the VT 0Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 9PUNT6 plays · 24 yds · 2:3868% → 69%
SYRDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0130% → 28%
Q2 4:18
4TH & 4
OWN 11
+7
28.2%
Jack Stonehouse punt for 48 yds , Jaylin Lane returns for 7 yds to the VT 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 11PUNT6 plays · -8 yds · 1:4971% → 70%
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-10
29.5%
Virginia Tech Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the VT 43Similar
Q2 4:18
1ST & 15
OWN 43
+4
30.0%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Harrison Saint Germain for 4 yds to the VT 47Similar
Q2 2:29
4TH & 18
OWN 40
0
30.1%
Peter Moore punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Trebor Pena at the SYR 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 12FUMBLE8 plays · 67 yds · 0:5728% → 30%
Q2 2:00
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+12
27.3%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Jackson Meeks for 12 yds to the SYR 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+6
28.3%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Jackson Meeks for 6 yds to the SYR 39Similar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+18
30.3%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Darrell Gill Jr. for 18 yds fumbled, recovered by VT Jaden Keller J. Keller return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 13END OF HALF5 plays · 75 yds · 1:0373% → 74%
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
25.3%
Collin Schlee run for a loss of 5 yards to the VT 46 Collin Schlee fumbled, recovered by VT Collin Schlee C. Schlee return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 14PUNT6 plays · 5 yds · 1:3828% → 26%
VTDrive 15TD11 plays · 76 yds · 5:3872% → 90%
Q3 13:22
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+6
27.6%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Stephen Gosnell for 6 yds to the VT 33Similar
Q3 13:22
2ND & 11
OPP 38
+11
26.4%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Da'Quan Felton for 11 yds to the SYR 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:22
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+13
26.3%
SCHLEE, Collin pass short to the left incomplete intended for FELTON, Da'Quan thrown to the SYRA23. PENALTY SYRA Personal Foul enforced half the distance from the goal, 13 yards from the SYRA26 to the SYRA13 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 7:44
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+12
10.4%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Ali Jennings for 12 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 16TD6 plays · 75 yds · 1:3614% → 26%
Q3 7:44
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
13.8%
Virginia Tech Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Ali Jennings) to the SYR 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:44
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+12
14.0%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 12 yds to the SYR 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+55
25.6%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 55 yds for a TD (Jackson Kennedy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4177% → 75%
Q3 5:27
4TH & 9
OWN 31
+14
24.7%
Peter Moore punt for 39 yds , Trebor Pena returns for 14 yds to the SYR 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 18TD6 plays · 56 yds · 2:3425% → 50%
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
25.4%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 2 yds to the SYR 46Similar
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+41
26.5%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Trebor Pena for 41 yds to the VT 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
49.8%
LeQuint Allen run for 1 yd for a TD (Kyle McCord pass to Oronde Gadsden II for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 19FUMBLE4 plays · 14 yds · 2:0861% → 62%
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
38.0%
Jeremiah Coney run for 3 yds to the VT 39 Jeremiah Coney fumbled, recovered by SYR Marlowe Wax M. Wax return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 20TD5 plays · 39 yds · 1:2348% → 70%
VTDrive 21TD8 plays · 75 yds · 3:1838% → 73%
SYRDrive 22PUNT5 plays · -8 yds · 1:3237% → 27%
Q4 11:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
37.0%
Kyle McCord pass complete to LeQuint Allen for 3 yds to the SYR 28Similar
Q4 11:04
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-11
35.5%
Kyle McCord sacked by Antwaun Powell-Ryland for a loss of 11 yards to the SYR 17Similar
Q4 9:32
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
32.9%
Jack Stonehouse punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Lane at the SYR 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 23FG8 plays · 28 yds · 4:1672% → 85%
Q4 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+14
25.2%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Benji Gosnell for 14 yds to the SYR 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 24TD16 plays · 75 yds · 4:4722% → 67%
Q4 5:16
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-15
21.4%
Syracuse Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the SYR 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
21.3%
Virginia Tech Penalty, Personal Foul (Aeneas Peebles) to the SYR 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
25.0%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 3 yds to the VT 49Similar
Q4 5:16
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+6
26.5%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 6 yds to the VT 43Similar
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+14
29.2%
MCCORD, Kyle pass deep to the right incomplete intended for VILLARI, Dan thrown to the VATECH5. PENALTY VATECH Pass Interference enforced half the distance from the goal, 14 yards to the VATECH14 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 5:16
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+11
29.2%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Trebor Pena for 11 yds to the VT 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 25END OF 4TH QUARTER1 play · -1 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 26TD2 plays · 25 yds · 0:0066% → 87%
VTDrive 27FUMBLE3 plays · 14 yds · 0:0020% → 17%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+15
80.1%
SCHLEE, Collin pass deep to the right incomplete intended for GOSNELL, Stephen thrown to the SYRA4. PENALTY SYRA Pass Interference enforced half the distance from the goal, 15 yards to the SYRA10 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-10
80.1%
QB Keeper SCHLEE, Collin rush to the left for no gain to the SYRA10 (DIGGS, Fadil). PENALTY VATECH Holding enforced 10 yards from the SYRA10 to the SYRA20 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 20
+9
83.5%
Collin Schlee run for 9 yds to the SYR 11 Collin Schlee fumbled, recovered by SYR Fadil Diggs F. Diggs return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:29
LeQuint Allen run for 1 yd for a TD (Jackson Kennedy KICK)
+40
TD · Q4 11:04
Malachi Thomas run for 15 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)
-28.3
TD · Q3 2:53
LeQuint Allen run for 1 yd for a TD (Kyle McCord pass to Oronde Gadsden II for Two-Point Conversion)
+22