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UNC

North Carolina 35 at Florida State 11

FSU
2024 · Week 10 · Nov 2, 2024 · Doak Campbell Stadium
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Win probability · FSU
modelFSU aheadUNC aheadconfidence bandkey playFSU scoreUNC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 3:11 · Alex Mastromanno punt for 51 yds , Alijah Huzzie returns for 8 yds to the UNC 46
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+56.0+28.00−28.0−56.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 32Home team on offense+0.3Score differential−0.1Pregame prior−6.5Garbage-time factor+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:57: Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK) — UNC win probability +7.4 pts (now 72%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: Ryan Fitzgerald kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback — FSU win probability +5.3 pts (now 30%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:48: Omarion Hampton run for 31 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK) — UNC win probability +14.9 pts (now 86%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:24: Brock Glenn pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 28 yds for a TD (L. McCoy Run For Two-point Conversion) — FSU win probability +10.5 pts (now 27%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:50: Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK) — UNC win probability +10.2 pts (now 88%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8UNC made the numbers' call on 2 of 5
  1. Q1 13:40FSU 4th & 6 at FSU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.1%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:46UNC 4th & 4 at UNC 30, tied
    Close callPunted · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:33FSU 4th & 9 at UNC 38, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.3%
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.3%−<0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    46.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:49UNC 4th & 1 at FSU 1, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    51.1%−0.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    49.1%−2.8
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:11FSU 4th & 18 at FSU 11, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.2%−1.5
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:08FSU 4th & 7 at UNC 45, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.5%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    44.5%−1.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    45.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:58FSU 4th & 26 at FSU 16, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.1%−2.9
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:11FSU 4th & 13 at FSU 22, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.2%−2.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:35UNC 4th & 4 at UNC 46, up 18
    Close callPunted · 86.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.6%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:24FSU 4th & 3 at UNC 28, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    15.4%−0.9
    60% to make
    Punt
    9.9%−6.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:50UNC 4th & 1 at FSU 1, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    70.4%−3.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    60.0%−14.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:57FSU 4th & 11 at FSU 49, down 17
    Numbers favored punt by 1.1 ptsWent for it · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.3%−1.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:36UNC 4th & 3 at UNC 46, up 24
    Close callPunted · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.5%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FSU made the numbers' call on 0 of 1UNC made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q2 13:45UNC Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:57UNC Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:48UNC Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:24FSU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    24.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    24.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:50UNC Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:19UNC Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.6%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:0742% → 42%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
42.1%
Ja'Khi Douglas run for 2 yds to the FSU 17Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+2
42.2%
Lawrance Toafili run for 2 yds to the FSU 19Similar
Q1 13:50
3RD & 6
OWN 19
0
42.3%
Brock Glenn pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:40
4TH & 6
OWN 19
0
42.3%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 57 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:4858% → 57%
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
42.5%
Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds to the UNC 27Similar
Q1 13:01
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+2
42.6%
Jacolby Criswell run for 2 yds to the UNC 29Similar
Q1 12:23
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+1
42.9%
Jacolby Criswell run for 1 yd to the UNC 30Similar
Q1 11:46
4TH & 4
OWN 30
+4
43.2%
Tom Maginness punt for 48 yds , Lawayne McCoy returns for 4 yds to the FSU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 3FG
7 plays · 36 yds · 2:0643% → 44%
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
43.1%
Lawrance Toafili run for 2 yds to the FSU 28Similar
Q1 11:06
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+33
43.2%
Brock Glenn pass complete to Hykeem Williams for 33 yds to the UNC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
43.9%
Lawrance Toafili run for 1 yd to the UNC 40Similar
Q1 10:14
2ND & 11
OPP 40
0
44.0%
Brock Glenn pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:06
3RD & 11
OPP 40
+2
43.7%
Lawrance Toafili run for 2 yds to the UNC 38Similar
Q1 9:33
4TH & 9
OPP 38
+56
44.1%
Ryan Fitzgerald 56 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4DOWNS
10 plays · 50 yds · 3:2956% → 55%
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
43.8%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+7
44.0%
Omarion Hampton run for 7 yds to the FSU 44Similar
Q1 8:34
3RD & 3
OPP 44
-6
44.0%
(08:40) No Huddle-Shotgun Criswell,Jacolby pass complete short right to Hampton,Omarion caught at FSU44, for 15 yards to the FSU29 (Little Jr.,Earl), out of bounds PENALTY UNC Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Green,Trevyon) 6 yards from FSU44 to FSU50. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:09
3RD & 9
50
+24
44.5%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 24 yds to the FSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+16
43.9%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to John Copenhaver for 16 yds to the FSU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
44.0%
Omarion Hampton run for 5 yds to the FSU 5Similar
Q1 6:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
44.1%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
44.5%
Jacolby Criswell run for 4 yds to the FSU 1Similar
Q1 5:49
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
45.1%
Omarion Hampton run for no gain to the FSU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 2:2845% → 45%
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
45.2%
Lawrance Toafili run for 3 yds to the FSU 4Similar
Q1 5:12
2ND & 7
OWN 4
+15
45.3%
(05:14) No Huddle-Shotgun Glenn,Brock pass incomplete deep left to Benson,Malik thrown to FSU25 PENALTY UNC Pass Interference (Allen,Marcus) 15 yards from FSU04 to FSU19, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-7
45.7%
Brock Glenn sacked by Beau Atkinson for a loss of 7 yards to the FSU 12Similar
Q1 4:25
2ND & 17
OWN 12
+10
45.8%
Brock Glenn run for 10 yds to the FSU 22Similar
Q1 3:50
3RD & 7
OWN 22
-11
45.6%
Brock Glenn sacked for a loss of 11 yards to the FSU 11Similar
Q1 3:11
4TH & 18
OWN 11
+8
45.4%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 51 yds , Alijah Huzzie returns for 8 yds to the UNC 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6TD
11 plays · 54 yds · 4:1954% → 59%
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-10
45.7%
(03:08) No Huddle-Shotgun Criswell,Jacolby pass complete short left to Jones,J.J. caught at FSU41, for 13 yards to the FSU41, End Of Play PENALTY UNC Holding (Blaske,Austin) 10 yards from UNC46 to UNC36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:41
1ST & 20
OWN 36
+6
46.9%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 6 yds to the UNC 42Similar
Q1 2:06
2ND & 14
OWN 42
0
46.6%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:53
3RD & 14
OWN 42
+38
47.0%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 38 yds to the FSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-2
44.8%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to John Copenhaver for a loss of 2 yards to the FSU 22Similar
Q1 0:48
2ND & 12
OPP 22
+2
45.2%
Davion Gause run for 2 yds to the FSU 20Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+14
46.0%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to John Copenhaver for 14 yds to the FSU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
45.1%
Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd to the FSU 5Similar
Q2 14:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
45.2%
Omarion Hampton run for 4 yds to the FSU 1Similar
Q2 13:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
45.9%
(13:59) Criswell,Jacolby rush middle for 0 yards to the FSU01 (Lyons,Daniel) PENALTY FSU Offside. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
41.4%
Omarion Hampton 1 Yd Run (Noah Burnette Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 3:3243% → 44%
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
43.3%
Samuel Singleton Jr. run for no gain to the FSU 25Similar
Q2 13:01
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
43.1%
Luke Kromenhoek run for 2 yds to the FSU 27Similar
Q2 12:24
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+13
42.5%
Luke Kromenhoek run for 13 yds to the FSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
45.1%
Lawrance Toafili run for 12 yds to the UNC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
45.9%
Luke Kromenhoek sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the FSU 47Similar
Q2 10:49
2ND & 15
OWN 47
+8
44.0%
Caziah Holmes run for 8 yds to the UNC 45Similar
Q2 10:15
3RD & 7
OPP 45
0
45.6%
Luke Kromenhoek pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:08
4TH & 7
OPP 45
0
43.5%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Alijah Huzzie at the UNC 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8TD
17 plays · 93 yds · 8:0457% → 72%
Q2 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
43.4%
Omarion Hampton run for 4 yds to the UNC 11Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 6
OWN 11
+2
43.1%
Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the UNC 13Similar
Q2 8:47
3RD & 4
OWN 13
+10
43.9%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Christian Hamilton for 10 yds to the UNC 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
42.8%
Omarion Hampton run for 7 yds to the UNC 30Similar
Q2 7:48
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+2
40.6%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to John Copenhaver for 2 yds to the UNC 32Similar
Q2 7:16
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+3
40.9%
Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds to the UNC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
40.8%
Davion Gause run for 4 yds to the UNC 39Similar
Q2 6:08
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+2
39.8%
Jacolby Criswell run for 2 yds to the UNC 41Similar
Q2 5:25
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+5
40.0%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Paul Billups II for 5 yds to the UNC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+17
39.6%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 17 yds to the FSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
39.1%
Jacolby Criswell run for 1 yd to the FSU 38Similar
Q2 3:42
2ND & 11
OPP 38
+15
39.2%
Omarion Hampton run for 15 yds to the FSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
37.9%
Omarion Hampton run for no gain to the FSU 23Similar
Q2 2:37
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+18
36.9%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 18 yds to the FSU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
36.3%
Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds to the FSU 2Similar
Q2 1:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
28.1%
Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · -4 yds · 0:3730% → 28%
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
29.5%
Luke Kromenhoek run for 5 yds to the FSU 25Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+7
29.7%
Luke Kromenhoek run for 7 yds to the FSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
29.8%
Luke Kromenhoek pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-8
29.0%
Luke Kromenhoek sacked by Beau Atkinson for a loss of 8 yards to the FSU 24Similar
Q2 1:01
3RD & 18
OWN 24
-8
28.3%
Luke Kromenhoek sacked by Beau Atkinson for a loss of 8 yards to the FSU 16Similar
Q2 0:58
4TH & 26
OWN 16
0
28.1%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Alijah Huzzie at the UNC 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10MISSED FG
5 plays · 21 yds · 0:5073% → 75%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-9
27.5%
Jacolby Criswell sacked by Darrell Jackson Jr. for a loss of 9 yards to the UNC 33Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 19
OWN 33
+18
28.2%
Davion Gause run for 18 yds to the FSU 49Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+12
25.9%
Jacolby Criswell run for 12 yds to the FSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+54
25.0%
Noah Burnette 54 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 11TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 3:1270% → 86%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
30.1%
Omarion Hampton run for 7 yds to the UNC 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
29.5%
Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the UNC 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+7
30.2%
Jacolby Criswell run for 7 yds to the UNC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+18
29.4%
Davion Gause run for 18 yds to the FSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+14
28.7%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Jake Johnson for 14 yds to the FSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
13.8%
Omarion Hampton run for 31 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:3717% → 16%
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
17.0%
Lawrance Toafili run for 2 yds to the FSU 27Similar
Q3 11:48
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
16.9%
Luke Kromenhoek pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:48
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-5
16.7%
Luke Kromenhoek sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the FSU 22Similar
Q3 10:11
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+12
15.7%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UNC 40 , Alijah Huzzie returns for 12 yds to the UNC 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2887% → 87%
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
13.1%
Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd to the UNC 41Similar
Q3 9:22
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+5
12.8%
Omarion Hampton run for 5 yds to the UNC 46Similar
Q3 8:41
3RD & 4
OWN 46
0
12.5%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:35
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
13.2%
Tom Maginness punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FSU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 14TD
5 plays · 85 yds · 1:5415% → 27%
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+50
14.9%
Brock Glenn pass complete to Malik Benson for 50 yds to the UNC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
17.0%
Caziah Holmes run for 4 yds to the UNC 31Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+1
16.9%
Caziah Holmes run for 1 yd to the UNC 30Similar
Q3 7:01
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+2
16.3%
Lawrance Toafili run for 2 yds to the UNC 28Similar
Q3 6:24
4TH & 3
OPP 28
+28
26.8%
Brock Glenn pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 28 yds for a TD (L. McCoy Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 15TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:2374% → 88%
Q3 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+58
26.2%
Omarion Hampton run for 43 yds to the FSU 32 for a 1ST down Florida State Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Azareye'h Thomas) to the FSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
23.5%
Omarion Hampton run for 5 yds to the FSU 12Similar
Q3 5:16
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+7
22.1%
Omarion Hampton run for 7 yds to the FSU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
21.5%
Omarion Hampton run for 4 yds to the FSU 1Similar
Q3 3:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
21.2%
Omarion Hampton run for no gain to the FSU 1Similar
Q3 3:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
21.8%
Omarion Hampton run for no gain to the FSU 1Similar
Q3 2:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
11.6%
Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 16DOWNS
10 plays · 24 yds · 3:4014% → 9%
Q3 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
14.0%
Brock Glenn pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for a loss of 7 yards to the FSU 18Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+7
13.4%
Brock Glenn run for 7 yds to the FSU 25Similar
Q3 1:19
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+12
13.2%
Brock Glenn pass complete to Kyle Morlock for 12 yds to the FSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
13.6%
Caziah Holmes run for 6 yds to the FSU 43Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+7
12.9%
Brock Glenn pass complete to Lawayne McCoy for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
50
0
12.9%
Brock Glenn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:42
2ND & 10
50
-1
12.4%
Brock Glenn sacked by Amare Campbell for a loss of 1 yard to the FSU 49Similar
Q4 14:05
3RD & 11
OWN 49
0
10.5%
Brock Glenn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:57
4TH & 11
OWN 49
0
9.4%
Brock Glenn pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 17TD
3 plays · 49 yds · 1:3193% → 98%
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
7.4%
Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the UNC 49Similar
Q4 13:08
2ND & 12
OWN 49
+2
7.1%
Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the FSU 49Similar
Q4 12:19
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+49
2.3%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 49 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 18INT
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:313% → 3%
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
2.7%
Samuel Singleton Jr. run for 2 yds to the FSU 23Similar
Q4 11:38
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
2.5%
Luke Kromenhoek pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 3:5498% → 99%
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
2.2%
Omarion Hampton run for 4 yds to the UNC 33Similar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+6
2.0%
Omarion Hampton run for 6 yds to the UNC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
1.7%
Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds to the UNC 42Similar
Q4 9:07
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+1
1.7%
Davion Gause run for 1 yd to the UNC 43Similar
Q4 8:22
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+3
1.5%
Davion Gause run for 3 yds to the UNC 46Similar
Q4 7:36
4TH & 3
OWN 46
0
1.0%
Tom Maginness punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Lawayne McCoy at the FSU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 20INT
3 plays · 36 yds · 1:011% → 1%
Q4 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+32
1.4%
Luke Kromenhoek pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for 32 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
50
+4
1.3%
Luke Kromenhoek pass complete to Elijah Moore for 4 yds to the UNC 46Similar
Q4 6:28
2ND & 6
OPP 46
0
1.3%
Luke Kromenhoek pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 21END OF GAME
10 plays · 53 yds · 6:2199% → 100%
Q4 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
0.8%
Davion Gause run for 4 yds to the UNC 19Similar
Q4 5:36
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+1
0.7%
Davion Gause run for 1 yd to the UNC 20Similar
Q4 4:51
3RD & 5
OWN 20
+13
0.7%
Darwin Barlow run for 13 yds to the UNC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
0.7%
Darwin Barlow run for 2 yds to the UNC 31Similar
Q4 3:22
2ND & 12
OWN 31
+12
0.5%
Darwin Barlow run for 12 yds to the UNC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
0.5%
Davion Gause run for 3 yds to the UNC 46Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+16
0.3%
Conner Harrell run for 16 yds to the FSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
0.3%
Charleston French run for 3 yds to the FSU 35Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+3
0.3%
Charleston French run for 3 yds to the FSU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:48
Omarion Hampton run for 31 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)
-14.9
TD · Q3 6:24
Brock Glenn pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 28 yds for a TD (L. McCoy Run For Two-point Conversion)
+10.5
TD · Q3 2:50
Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)
-10.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com