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DUKE

Duke 31 at Miami 53

MIA
2024 · Week 10 · Nov 2, 2024 · Hard Rock Stadium
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Win probability · MIA
modelMIA aheadDUKE aheadconfidence bandkey playMIA scoreDUKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:35 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MIA 34
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+42.5+21.30−21.3−42.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:47: Maalik Murphy pass complete to Peyton Jones for 6 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK) — DUKE win probability +8.1 pts (now 27%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:03: Maalik Murphy pass complete to Jordan Moore for 6 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK) — DUKE win probability +14.7 pts (now 46%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:16: Cam Ward pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 3 yds for a TD (C. Ward Run For Two-point Conversion) — MIA win probability +18.7 pts (now 75%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q3 3:08: Elija Lofton run for 2 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +14.5 pts (now 85%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:56: Cam Ward pass complete to Jacolby George for 49 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +14.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIA made the numbers' call on 3 of 5DUKE made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 11:04DUKE 4th & 4 at DUKE 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.0%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:37MIA 4th & 7 at DUKE 41, up 7
    Close callPunted · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    89.6%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    89.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:51DUKE 4th & 11 at DUKE 24, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.4%−0.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:23MIA 4th & 10 at MIA 30, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.5%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:46MIA 4th & 3 at MIA 29, up 7
    Close callPunted · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.1%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:51MIA 4th & 11 at DUKE 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.6%−0.7
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.2%
    87% to make
    Punt
    77.9%−3.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:08MIA 4th & 4 at MIA 31, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.2%−0.7
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:01DUKE 4th & 16 at DUKE 19, up 4
    Numbers favored punt by 2.5 ptsWent for it · 26.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.5%−2.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    23.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:03DUKE 4th & 1 at MIA 6, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.6%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    29.8%−3.8
    91% to make
    Punt
    19.8%−13.8
    average punt
  10. Q4 13:51DUKE 4th & 7 at MIA 7, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.0%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    14.1%−10.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:32DUKE 4th & 5 at DUKE 30, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.7%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:21DUKE 4th & 6 at DUKE 44, down 8
    Close callPunted · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.1%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:35DUKE 4th & 18 at DUKE 22, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−<0.1
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIA made the numbers' call on 6 of 7DUKE made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 11:54MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:04MIA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:28DUKE Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:15DUKE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:47DUKE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:03DUKE Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 7:16MIA Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    61.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    61.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 3:08MIA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 12:56MIA Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 7:36MIA Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.0%−0.5
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 5:37MIA Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIADrive 1TD
9 plays · 77 yds · 2:5492% → 92%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
92.4%
Cam Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:41
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
92.3%
Cam Ward pass incomplete to Elijah ArroyoSimilar
Q1 14:29
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+22
92.3%
Cam Ward pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 22 yds to the MIA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
92.2%
Cam Ward pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 11 yds to the DUKE 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
92.1%
Jacolby George run for a loss of 5 yards to the DUKE 49Similar
Q1 12:47
2ND & 15
OPP 49
+10
91.9%
Cam Ward pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 10 yds to the DUKE 39Similar
Q1 12:10
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+5
91.8%
Damien Martinez run for 5 yds to the DUKE 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
92.1%
Cam Ward pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 34 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:478% → 8%
Q1 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.0%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
91.9%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Jordan Moore for 6 yds to the DUKE 31Similar
Q1 11:12
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
91.8%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Eli PancolSimilar
Q1 11:04
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
91.9%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MIA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 34 yds · 2:2192% → 92%
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
91.9%
Damien Martinez run for 16 yds to the MIA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
91.9%
Cam Ward pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 7 yds to the MIA 48Similar
Q1 9:59
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+8
91.9%
Damien Martinez run for 8 yds to the DUKE 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
91.9%
Cam Ward pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 4 yds to the DUKE 40Similar
Q1 8:55
2ND & 6
OPP 40
-1
91.7%
Damien Martinez run for a loss of 1 yard to the DUKE 41Similar
Q1 8:48
3RD & 7
OPP 41
0
91.6%
Cam Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:37
4TH & 7
OPP 41
0
91.5%
Dylan Joyce punt for 36 yds, downed at the DUKE 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
91.4%
Maalik Murphy pass intercepted Mishael Powell return for no gain to the DUKE 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 5TD
8 plays · 45 yds · 3:0492% → 93%
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
91.7%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 1 yd to the DUKE 44Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+11
91.6%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 11 yds to the DUKE 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
91.6%
Cam Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:17
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+10
91.5%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 10 yds to the DUKE 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-1
91.5%
Cam Ward pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for a loss of 1 yard to the DUKE 24Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 11
OPP 24
+21
91.4%
Cam Ward pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 21 yds to the DUKE 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
91.4%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the DUKE 4Similar
Q1 5:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
92.7%
Cam Ward pass complete to Cam McCormick for 4 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:598% → 8%
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
92.1%
Miami Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (5 Yards) to the DUKE 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.1%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
92.0%
Star Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the DUKE 24Similar
Q1 3:58
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
92.1%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:51
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
92.1%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Ray Ray Joseph at the MIA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 7FUMBLE
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2193% → 92%
Q1 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
92.5%
Cam Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
92.4%
Cam Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:33
3RD & 10
OWN 30
0
92.3%
Cam Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:23
4TH & 10
OWN 30
-3
92.2%
Dylan Joyce punt for 50 yds , Que'Sean Brown returns for a loss of 3 yards to the DUKE 17 Que'Sean Brown fumbled, recovered by DUKE Que'Sean BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 8TD
4 plays · 83 yds · 0:408% → 11%
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+21
92.1%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 21 yds to the DUKE 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+27
92.0%
Peyton Jones run for 27 yds to the MIA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+27
91.5%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Jordan Moore for 27 yds to the MIA 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
89.5%
Peyton Jones run for 8 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4291% → 90%
Q1 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
90.5%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for no gain to the MIA 22Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+7
90.3%
Cam Ward pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 7 yds to the MIA 29Similar
Q1 0:52
3RD & 3
OWN 29
0
90.0%
Cam Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:46
4TH & 3
OWN 29
0
89.8%
Dylan Joyce punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Que'Sean Brown at the DUKE 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 10TD
10 plays · 77 yds · 4:2710% → 15%
Q1 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
90.0%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+2
90.0%
Star Thomas run for 2 yds to the DUKE 25Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+9
90.0%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 9 yds to the DUKE 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-10
89.6%
Duke Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the DUKE 24Similar
Q2 13:40
1ST & 20
OWN 24
+4
89.6%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Eli Pancol for 4 yds to the DUKE 28Similar
Q2 13:08
2ND & 16
OWN 28
+40
89.5%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Peyton Jones for 40 yds to the MIA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
88.2%
Peyton Jones run for 3 yds to the MIA 29Similar
Q2 11:58
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+2
88.0%
Star Thomas run for 2 yds to the MIA 27Similar
Q2 11:15
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+27
85.0%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 27 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 11FG
14 plays · 67 yds · 6:0787% → 86%
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
86.6%
Damien Martinez run for 10 yds to the MIA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
86.7%
Damien Martinez run for 3 yds to the MIA 35Similar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+17
86.5%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 17 yds to the DUKE 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
87.1%
Cam Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:58
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+2
86.9%
Cam Ward pass complete to Damien Martinez for 2 yds to the DUKE 46Similar
Q2 8:28
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+8
86.4%
Cam Ward run for 8 yds to the DUKE 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+17
86.5%
Cam Ward pass complete to Damien Martinez for 17 yds to the DUKE 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
86.7%
Cam Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+15
86.6%
Ward, Cam pass incomplete, PENALTY DUKE pass interference 15 yards to the DUKE6, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIAMI.Similar
Q2 6:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
86.6%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for no gain to the DUKE 6Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-3
86.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the DUKE 9 TEAM fumbled, recovered by MIA Cam WardSimilar
Q2 5:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
-2
85.4%
Cam Ward sacked by Michael Reese and Cameron Bergeron for a loss of 2 yards to the DUKE 11Similar
Q2 4:51
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+29
85.7%
Andres Borregales 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 12TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:5815% → 27%
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
85.2%
Jones, Peyton rush for loss of 1 yard to the DUKE24, PENALTY MIAMI holding 10 yards to the DUKE35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN DUKE.Similar
Q2 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
84.7%
Peyton Jones run for 4 yds to the DUKE 39Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+21
83.7%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Eli Pancol for 6 yds to the MIA 45 for a 1ST down Miami Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the MIA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
83.2%
Miami Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the MIA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
82.5%
Peyton Jones run for 6 yds to the MIA 19Similar
Q2 2:46
2ND & 4
OPP 19
0
82.1%
Maalik Murphy pass incomplete to Que'Sean BrownSimilar
Q2 2:35
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+6
82.7%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 6 yds to the MIA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
81.2%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 7 yds to the MIA 6Similar
Q2 1:47
2ND & 3
OPP 6
+6
73.1%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Peyton Jones for 6 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:2577% → 75%
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
77.1%
Damien Martinez run for 6 yds to the MIA 31Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
78.2%
Cam Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
75.9%
Cam Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:08
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
75.3%
Dylan Joyce punt for 44 yds, downed at the DUKE 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 14DOWNS
9 plays · -11 yds · 1:0125% → 24%
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
74.7%
Duke Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the DUKE 15Similar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+2
75.1%
Star Thomas run for 2 yds to the DUKE 17Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 18
OWN 17
0
74.9%
Star Thomas run for no gain to the DUKE 17Similar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+7
75.4%
Star Thomas run for 7 yds to the DUKE 24Similar
Q2 0:01
4TH & 11
OWN 24
-5
75.5%
Duke Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the DUKE 19Similar
Q2 0:01
4TH & 16
OWN 19
-5
75.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the DUKE 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:5226% → 46%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
74.0%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
73.9%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Jordan Moore for 11 yds to the DUKE 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
72.4%
Star Thomas run for no gain to the DUKE 36Similar
Q3 13:48
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+16
72.6%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 16 yds to the MIA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
70.3%
Star Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the MIA 49Similar
Q3 12:44
2ND & 11
OPP 49
+34
70.0%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 34 yds to the MIA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
68.2%
Peyton Jones run for 2 yds to the MIA 13Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+2
67.3%
Peyton Jones run for 2 yds to the MIA 11Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 6
OPP 11
-5
67.8%
Duke Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the MIA 16Similar
Q3 10:43
3RD & 11
OPP 16
+10
67.9%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 10 yds to the MIA 6Similar
Q3 10:03
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+6
53.9%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Jordan Moore for 6 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 16TD
8 plays · 69 yds · 2:1455% → 75%
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+20
54.7%
Cam Ward pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 20 yds to the DUKE 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+16
56.8%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 16 yds to the DUKE 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
58.7%
Cam Ward pass incomplete to Xavier RestrepoSimilar
Q3 8:49
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+5
58.2%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 5 yds to the DUKE 28Similar
Q3 7:47
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+8
54.9%
Cam Ward pass complete to Jacolby George for 8 yds to the DUKE 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+17
56.6%
Cam Ward pass complete to Jacolby George for 17 yds to the DUKE 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
75.3%
Cam Ward pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 3 yds for a TD (C. Ward Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17INT
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:4233% → 34%
Q3 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
67.3%
Star Thomas run for 4 yds to the DUKE 29Similar
Q3 6:24
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-30
65.9%
Maalik Murphy pass intercepted OJ Frederique Jr. return for 30 yds to the DUKE 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 18TD
7 plays · 38 yds · 2:5273% → 85%
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+11
72.8%
Cam Ward pass complete to Elijah Arroyo for 11 yds to the DUKE 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
74.3%
Damien Martinez run for 7 yds to the DUKE 20Similar
Q3 4:54
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+7
73.6%
Cam Ward pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 7 yds to the DUKE 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
73.3%
Damien Martinez run for 5 yds to the DUKE 8Similar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 5
OPP 8
0
72.9%
Cam Ward pass incomplete to Jacolby GeorgeSimilar
Q3 3:41
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+6
70.8%
Cam Ward pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 6 yds to the DUKE 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
85.4%
Elija Lofton run for 2 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19FG
13 plays · 68 yds · 4:0418% → 29%
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
81.6%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Eli Pancol for 10 yds to the DUKE 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
80.7%
Peyton Jones run for 13 yds to the DUKE 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
78.3%
Peyton Jones run for 1 yd to the DUKE 49Similar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+7
78.2%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Eli Pancol for 7 yds to the MIA 44Similar
Q3 0:05
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+25
77.5%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Jordan Moore for 25 yds to the MIA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
75.6%
Star Thomas run for 5 yds to the MIA 14Similar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+7
75.2%
Brown, Que'Sean rush for loss of 8 yards to the MIAMI22, PENALTY MIAMI face mask 7 yards to the MIAMI7, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN DUKE.Similar
Q4 14:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
75.1%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
75.0%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
75.4%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:51
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
71.2%
Todd Pelino 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 20TD
3 plays · 51 yds · 0:4977% → 92%
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
77.0%
Damien Martinez run for 2 yds to the DUKE 49Similar
Q4 12:56
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+49
91.7%
Cam Ward pass complete to Jacolby George for 49 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1011% → 10%
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
88.7%
Star Thomas run for 7 yds to the DUKE 32Similar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-2
87.2%
Star Thomas run for a loss of 2 yards to the DUKE 30Similar
Q4 11:41
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
88.5%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:32
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+9
89.7%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 45 yds , Ray Ray Joseph returns for 9 yds to the MIA 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 22INT
4 plays · 25 yds · 1:1490% → 92%
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+20
90.3%
Cam Ward pass complete to Sam Brown Jr. for 20 yds to the DUKE 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
92.0%
Damien Martinez run for 5 yds to the DUKE 41Similar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 5
OPP 41
0
92.0%
Cam Ward pass incomplete to Xavier RestrepoSimilar
Q4 9:57
3RD & 5
OPP 41
0
91.6%
Cam Ward pass intercepted Chandler Rivers return for no gain to the DUKE 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2012% → 10%
Q4 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
88.1%
Peyton Jones run for 3 yds to the DUKE 43Similar
Q4 9:09
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+1
87.7%
Peyton Jones run for 1 yd to the DUKE 44Similar
Q4 8:28
3RD & 6
OWN 44
0
88.3%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:21
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
89.6%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MIA 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 24TD
2 plays · 68 yds · 0:3592% → 97%
Q4 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
91.9%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 2 yds to the MIA 34Similar
Q4 7:36
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+66
97.1%
Cam Ward pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 66 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 25INT
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:113% → 4%
Q4 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
96.6%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Eli Pancol for 9 yds to the DUKE 34Similar
Q4 7:06
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-15
96.3%
Maalik Murphy pass intercepted Jadais Richard return for 15 yds to the DUKE 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 26TD
3 plays · 30 yds · 1:1898% → 100%
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
97.6%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 3 yds to the DUKE 27Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+26
97.8%
Cam Ward pass complete to Sam Brown Jr. for 26 yds to the DUKE 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.6%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 27FUMBLE
4 plays · 16 yds · 0:371% → 1%
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
99.4%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 14 yds to the DUKE 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
99.4%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 2 yds to the DUKE 41Similar
Q4 4:43
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+6
99.4%
Maalik Murphy run for no gain to the DUKE 35 Maalik Murphy fumbled, recovered by MIA Akheem Mesidor , return for 6 yds to the DUKE 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 28FUMBLE
4 plays · 25 yds · 2:03100% → 100%
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
99.7%
Jordan Lyle run for 1 yd to the DUKE 34Similar
Q4 3:33
2ND & 9
OPP 34
0
99.7%
Cam Ward pass complete to Jacolby George for no gain to the DUKE 34Similar
Q4 3:08
3RD & 9
OPP 34
+29
99.7%
Cam Ward pass complete to Riley Williams for 29 yds to the DUKE 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
99.7%
Cam Ward sacked by Terry Moore for a loss of 5 yards to the DUKE 10 Cam Ward fumbled, recovered by DUKE DaShawn Stone , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 29PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 1:251% → 1%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
99.5%
Peyton Jones run for 1 yd to the DUKE 11Similar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+4
99.5%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 4 yds to the DUKE 15Similar
Q4 1:43
3RD & 5
OWN 15
+15
99.5%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Peyton Jones for 15 yds to the DUKE 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
99.5%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Jontavis Robertson for 3 yds to the DUKE 33Similar
Q4 1:31
2ND & 7
OWN 33
0
99.5%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 7
OWN 33
-11
99.5%
Maalik Murphy sacked by Booker Pickett for a loss of 11 yards to the DUKE 22Similar
Q4 0:35
4TH & 18
OWN 22
+10
99.5%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 53 yds , Ray Ray Joseph returns for 10 yds to the MIA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 30END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
99.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MIA 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:16
Cam Ward pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 3 yds for a TD (C. Ward Run For Two-point Conversion)
+18.7
TD · Q3 10:03
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Jordan Moore for 6 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)
-14.7
TD · Q4 12:56
Cam Ward pass complete to Jacolby George for 49 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)
+14.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com