2024 · Week 9 · Oct 26, 2024 · Lane Stadium
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Win probability · VT
modelVT aheadGT aheadconfidence bandkey playVT scoreGT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · [NH] Kneel down by DRONES, Kyron at HOKIES34 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 13:02: Kyron Drones pass complete to Benji Gosnell for 20 yds for a TD (John Love KICK) — VT win probability +3.6 pts (now 76%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:51: Jaylin Lane pass complete to Kyron Drones for 6 yds for a TD (John Love KICK) — VT win probability +6.1 pts (now 82%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 6:36: Kyron Drones pass complete to Stephen Gosnell for 28 yds to the GT 14 for a 1ST down — VT win probability +5.0 pts (now 84%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:50: Kyron Drones run for 1 yd for a TD (John Love KICK) — VT win probability +9.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 4:43: Jamal Haynes run for 9 yds to the GT 17 — GT win probability +2.8 pts (now 9%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
VT made the numbers' call on 11 of 12GT made the numbers' call on 9 of 13
- Q1 12:52VT 4th & 10 at VT 25, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 77.2% before the snapGo for it77.2%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call77.3%average punt
- Q1 7:00GT 4th & 4 at VT 17, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 24.6% before the snapGo for it24.6%47% to convertField goalTheir call24.5%−<0.180% to makePunt23.6%−1.0average punt
- Q1 4:38VT 4th & 8 at VT 37, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.6% before the snapGo for it73.5%−0.234% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call73.7%average punt
- Q2 15:00GT 4th & 16 at GT 32, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.4% before the snapGo for it26.9%−1.115% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.9%average punt
- Q2 11:36GT 4th & 1 at GT 34, down 4Close callPunted · 24.9% before the snapGo for it25.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.9%−0.5average punt
- Q2 9:30VT 4th & 6 at VT 16, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.1% before the snapGo for it72.6%−0.438% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call73.0%average punt
- Q2 5:39GT 4th & 13 at VT 33, down 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.5% before the snapGo for it24.9%−0.521% to convertField goalTheir call25.4%49% to makePunt24.9%−0.5average punt
- Q2 5:39VT 4th & 2 at GT 26, up 1Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call74.0%57% to convertField goal73.4%−0.664% to makePunt70.7%−3.3average punt
- Q2 1:23GT 4th & 13 at GT 22, down 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.3% before the snapGo for it16.4%−1.919% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.3%average punt
- Q2 0:00VT 4th & 1 at VT 44, up 8Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 81.5% before the snapGo for it82.5%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call81.0%−1.4average punt
- Q3 14:22GT 4th & 9 at GT 26, down 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.1% before the snapGo for it17.6%−1.430% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.1%average punt
- Q3 13:23VT 4th & 9 at VT 42, up 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.0% before the snapGo for it80.6%−1.232% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call81.8%average punt
- Q3 12:08GT 4th & 2 at GT 38, down 8Close callPunted · 19.0% before the snapGo for it19.6%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.6%−0.9average punt
- Q3 9:40VT 4th & 11 at VT 31, up 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.7% before the snapGo for it79.7%−2.626% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.3%average punt
- Q3 8:17GT 4th & 9 at GT 13, down 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.3% before the snapGo for it16.6%−1.930% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.5%average punt
- Q3 7:08VT 4th & 19 at GT 37, up 8Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.6% before the snapGo for it80.8%−1.812% to convertField goalTheir call82.5%40% to makePunt82.3%−0.2average punt
- Q3 1:18GT 4th & 5 at GT 42, down 15Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.8% before the snapGo for it7.9%−0.341% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.2%average punt
- Q3 0:19VT 4th & 8 at VT 22, up 15Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.7% before the snapGo for it93.2%−1.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.2%average punt
- Q4 13:45GT 4th & 1 at VT 17, down 15Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call8.0%71% to convertField goal6.5%−1.480% to makePunt1.7%−6.3average punt
- Q4 12:16VT 4th & 6 at VT 22, up 15Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.7% before the snapGo for it94.4%−0.638% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.0%average punt
- Q4 10:58GT 4th & 4 at GT 39, down 15Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.9%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt5.4%−0.5average punt
- Q4 8:44VT 4th & 17 at GT 46, up 15Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.9% before the snapGo for it95.4%−0.914% to convertField goal95.5%−0.823% to makePuntTheir call96.3%average punt
- Q4 8:44GT 4th & 2 at GT 28, down 15Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.9%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt4.4%−0.5average punt
- Q4 4:18GT 4th & 10 at VT 24, down 15Close callWent for it · 3.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.9%−0.628% to convertField goal3.5%68% to makePunt1.9%−1.6average punt
- Q4 2:41VT 4th & 9 at VT 35, up 15Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.6% before the snapGo for it97.5%−0.231% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.7%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q2 13:02VT Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call75.3%97% to makeGo for two75.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:51VT Touchdown, up 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call79.3%97% to makeGo for two79.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:50VT Touchdown, up 14 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.7%97% to makeGo for two90.6%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartVTDrive 1PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 2:0876% → 76%
GTDrive 2FG13 plays · 59 yds · 5:5224% → 26%
Q1 12:52
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+17
75.8%
Zach Pyron pass complete to Josh Beetham for 17 yds to the GT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:54
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+14
74.8%
Zach Pyron pass complete to Jackson Hawes for 14 yds to the VT 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:54
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+6
74.6%
Zach Pyron pass complete to Avery Boyd for 6 yds to the VT 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:54
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+1
74.6%
Zach Pyron pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 1 yd to the VT 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 3PUNT7 plays · 12 yds · 2:2274% → 72%
Q1 4:38
4TH & 8
OWN 37
+6
72.4%
Peter Moore punt for 54 yds , Rodney Shelley returns for 6 yds to the GT 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 4PUNT9 plays · 17 yds · 4:3827% → 29%
Q1 4:38
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+12
73.2%
Zach Pyron pass complete to Avery Boyd for 12 yds to the GT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
72.7%
Zach Pyron sacked by Wilfried Pene for a loss of 5 yards to the GT 33Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 16
OWN 32
+14
71.5%
David Shanahan punt for 54 yds , Jaylin Lane returns for 14 yds to the VT 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 5TD4 plays · 72 yds · 1:4671% → 76%
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
71.3%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 7 yds to the VT 35Similar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+31
72.4%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Benji Gosnell for 31 yds to the GT 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
76.0%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Benji Gosnell for 20 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2625% → 25%
Q2 11:36
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+5
75.0%
David Shanahan punt for 47 yds , Jaylin Lane returns for 5 yds to the VT 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 2:0674% → 73%
GTDrive 8FG9 plays · 36 yds · 3:5126% → 28%
VTDrive 9TD9 plays · 75 yds · 3:4873% → 82%
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
75.8%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Harrison Saint Germain for 8 yds to the GT 26Similar
Q2 5:39
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+4
75.1%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Benji Gosnell for 4 yds to the GT 26Similar
Q2 1:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
81.9%
Jaylin Lane pass complete to Kyron Drones for 6 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 10PUNT7 plays · -3 yds · 0:2821% → 19%
VTDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1882% → 83%
Q2 1:18
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+5
81.4%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Malachi Thomas for 5 yds to the VT 39Similar
Q2 0:08
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+5
81.6%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Da'Quan Felton for 5 yds to the VT 44Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
82.5%
Peter Moore punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Rodney Shelley at the GT 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 12PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:3820% → 19%
Q3 14:22
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+7
81.3%
David Shanahan punt for 40 yds , Jaylin Lane returns for 7 yds to the VT 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5083% → 80%
Q3 13:23
4TH & 9
OWN 42
+16
80.3%
Peter Moore punt for 44 yds , Rodney Shelley returns for 16 yds to the GT 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 14PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:0420% → 20%
Q3 12:08
4TH & 2
OWN 38
+4
80.4%
David Shanahan punt for 46 yds , Jaylin Lane returns for 4 yds to the VT 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 15PUNT7 plays · 11 yds · 2:2881% → 80%
GTDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 1:0819% → 18%
Q3 8:17
4TH & 9
OWN 13
+25
82.2%
David Shanahan punt for 40 yds , Jaylin Lane returns for 25 yds to the GT 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 17MISSED FG4 plays · -9 yds · 0:5584% → 81%
Q3 7:20
3RD & 9
OPP 27
-10
83.5%
Kyron Drones sacked by Romello Height and Sylvain Yondjouen for a loss of 10 yards to the GT 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 18INT1 play · 5 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
79.2%
Zach Pyron pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 5 yds to the GT 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 19TD5 plays · 42 yds · 1:4684% → 94%
GTDrive 20PUNT9 plays · 34 yds · 3:259% → 8%
VTDrive 21PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5994% → 94%
Q3 0:19
4TH & 8
OWN 22
-4
93.6%
Peter Moore punt for 57 yds , Rodney Shelley returns for a loss of 4 yards to the GT 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 22DOWNS5 plays · 65 yds · 1:157% → 8%
VTDrive 23PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2995% → 95%
Q4 13:45
3RD & 5
OWN 23
-1
94.4%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Jaylin Lane for a loss of 1 yard to the VT 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 24DOWNS5 plays · 6 yds · 1:187% → 6%
VTDrive 25PUNT4 plays · -7 yds · 2:1496% → 96%
Q4 10:58
2ND & 8
OPP 37
-1
96.1%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Benji Gosnell for a loss of 1 yard to the GT 38Similar
Q4 10:58
3RD & 9
OPP 38
-8
95.9%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Kyron Drones for a loss of 8 yards to the GT 46Similar
Q4 8:44
4TH & 17
OPP 46
0
95.9%
Peter Moore punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Rodney Shelley at the GT 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 26DOWNS14 plays · 69 yds · 4:265% → 3%
Q4 8:44
4TH & 2
OWN 28
+4
95.0%
Aaron Philo pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 4 yds to the GT 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+21
94.6%
Aaron Philo pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 21 yds to the VT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:07
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+21
95.8%
Aaron Philo pass complete to Isiah Canion for 21 yds to the VT 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 27PUNT10 plays · 11 yds · 1:3797% → 98%
Q4 2:41
4TH & 9
OWN 35
+4
98.2%
Peter Moore punt for 44 yds , Rodney Shelley returns for 4 yds to the GT 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 28DOWNS6 plays · 37 yds · 0:421% → 1%
VTDrive 29END OF 4TH QUARTER3 plays · -4 yds · 1:4099% → 99%
Q4 0:00
3RD & 13
OWN 35
-1
98.8%
[NH] Kneel down by DRONES, Kyron at HOKIES34 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:50
Kyron Drones run for 1 yd for a TD (John Love KICK)
+9.8
TD · Q2 1:51
Jaylin Lane pass complete to Kyron Drones for 6 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)
+6.1
KEY PLAY · Q3 6:36
Kyron Drones pass complete to Stephen Gosnell for 28 yds to the GT 14 for a 1ST down
+5