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FSU

Florida State 14 at Miami 36

MIA
2024 · Week 9 · Oct 26, 2024 · Hard Rock Stadium
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Win probability · MIA
modelMIA aheadFSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMIA scoreFSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:34 · Brock Glenn run for 12 yds to the FSU 42 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
+43.5+21.80−21.8−43.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 161Pregame prior+1.6Home team on offense+35.6Score differential+31.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.5Garbage-time factor+10.9Blowout margin+16.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:44: Caziah Holmes run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK) — FSU win probability +2.5 pts (now 11%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:36: Timeout Miami, clock 06:36 — MIA win probability +3.0 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:00: Andres Borregales 20 yd FG GOOD — MIA win probability +2.6 pts (now 83%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 5:59: Andres Borregales 42 yd FG GOOD — MIA win probability +3.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 0:39: Andres Borregales 45 yd FG GOOD — MIA win probability +2.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIA made the numbers' call on 4 of 6FSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 11:30FSU 4th & 10 at FSU 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.4%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:38MIA 4th & 27 at MIA 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.5%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:18FSU 4th & 7 at midfield, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.7%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:24FSU 4th & 1 at FSU 45, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.3%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:44FSU 4th & 1 at MIA 1, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    7.9%−0.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    5.5%−3.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:58MIA 4th & 1 at MIA 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    86.7%−1.0
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:59FSU 4th & 3 at FSU 42, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.0%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:07FSU 4th & 2 at MIA 46, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    9.9%−2.1
    23% to make
    Punt
    11.0%−1.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:05MIA 4th & 1 at FSU 45, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    86.6%−2.5
    25% to make
    Punt
    87.5%−1.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:59MIA 4th & 3 at FSU 24, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.8%−0.4
    68% to make
    Punt
    85.3%−4.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:21FSU 4th & 4 at MIA 36, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    8.0%−0.9
    42% to make
    Punt
    7.8%−1.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:39MIA 4th & 3 at FSU 27, up 13
    Close callKicked a field goal · 93.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.9%−0.6
    62% to make
    Punt
    89.4%−4.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:48FSU 4th & 7 at MIA 45, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    4.5%−0.6
    25% to make
    Punt
    5.0%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:39MIA 4th & 1 at FSU 46, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    95.3%−1.4
    23% to make
    Punt
    95.9%−0.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:59FSU 4th & 16 at FSU 20, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:34FSU 4th & 5 at FSU 30, down 29
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4FSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 12:22MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:09MIA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:44FSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 4:32MIA Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:51MIA Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:18FSU Touchdown, down 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.4%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIADrive 1TD
8 plays · 67 yds · 2:2993% → 93%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
93.4%
Cam Ward pass complete to Elijah Arroyo for 13 yds to the MIA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
93.3%
Cam Ward pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 8 yds to the FSU 46Similar
Q1 13:57
2ND & 2
OPP 46
0
93.2%
Cam Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:50
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+13
93.2%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 13 yds to the FSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+12
93.1%
Cam Ward pass complete to Samuel Brown Jr. for 12 yds to the FSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+20
93.0%
Cam Ward pass complete to Samuel Brown Jr. for 20 yds to the FSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
92.9%
(12:27) WARD, Cameron pass short to the right incomplete intended for GEORGE, Jacolby thrown to the NOLES0, clock 12:25. PENALTY NOLES Pass Interference on THOMAS, Azareye'h enforced half the distance from the goal, 0 yards to the NOLES1 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 12:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.1%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:517% → 7%
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.0%
Brock Glenn pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
93.0%
Florida State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FSU 20Similar
Q1 12:14
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+5
93.0%
Lawrance Toafili run for 5 yds to the FSU 25Similar
Q1 11:39
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
93.0%
Brock Glenn pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:30
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+6
93.0%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 56 yds , Ray Ray Joseph returns for 6 yds to the MIA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 5 yds · 3:4393% → 92%
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
92.9%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 7 yds to the MIA 32Similar
Q1 11:02
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
92.9%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 2 yds to the MIA 34Similar
Q1 10:27
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+13
92.8%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 13 yds to the MIA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
92.8%
Cam Ward pass complete to Isaiah Horton for a loss of 1 yard to the MIA 46Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 11
OWN 46
-7
92.6%
Cam Ward sacked by Omar Graham Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the MIA 39Similar
Q1 8:17
3RD & 18
OWN 39
-9
92.4%
Cam Ward sacked by Edwin Joseph for a loss of 9 yards to the MIA 30Similar
Q1 7:38
4TH & 27
OWN 30
-2
92.2%
Dylan Joyce punt for 42 yds , Lawayne McCoy returns for a loss of 2 yards to the FSU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 3:138% → 8%
Q1 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
92.3%
Brock Glenn run for 2 yds to the FSU 28Similar
Q1 6:58
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+9
92.1%
Brock Glenn pass complete to Malik Benson for 9 yds to the FSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
92.0%
Lawrance Toafili run for 2 yds to the FSU 39Similar
Q1 5:57
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+8
91.9%
Brock Glenn pass complete to Lawayne McCoy for 8 yds to the FSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
91.6%
Brock Glenn pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:07
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+3
91.7%
Brock Glenn run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:24
3RD & 7
50
0
91.4%
Brock Glenn pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:18
4TH & 7
50
0
91.6%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 45 yds, downed at the MIA 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 5TD
16 plays · 95 yds · 5:0092% → 95%
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+14
91.8%
Damien Martinez run for 14 yds to the MIA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+15
91.7%
Florida State Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (K.J. Kirkland) to the MIA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
91.8%
Damien Martinez run for 4 yds to the MIA 43Similar
Q1 2:43
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+3
91.8%
Damien Martinez run for 3 yds to the MIA 46Similar
Q1 2:19
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+5
91.5%
WARD, Cameron pass to the left incomplete intended for HORTON, Isaiah thrown to the NOLES42, clock 02:19. PENALTY Before the snap, NOLES Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the CANES46 to the NOLES49 and results in a 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
91.6%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 3 yds to the FSU 46Similar
Q1 1:39
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+4
91.5%
Cam Ward pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 4 yds to the FSU 42Similar
Q1 1:01
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+3
91.3%
Damien Martinez run for 3 yds to the FSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-10
91.4%
(00:39) WARD, Cameron scrambles to the left for a gain of 1 yard to the NOLES38, out of bounds, clock 00:32. PENALTY CANES Holding on COOPER, Anez enforced 10 yards from the NOLES39 to the NOLES49 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 0:09
1ST & 20
OPP 49
0
92.2%
Cam Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:08
2ND & 20
OPP 49
0
92.1%
Cam Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 20
OPP 49
+21
91.9%
Cam Ward pass complete to Damien Martinez for 21 yds to the FSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:59
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+10
92.6%
Damien Martinez run for 10 yds to the FSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
92.4%
Cam Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+18
94.5%
Damien Martinez run for 18 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 6TD
13 plays · 78 yds · 7:148% → 11%
Q2 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
92.5%
Ja'Khi Douglas run for no gain to the FSU 22Similar
Q2 13:17
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
92.6%
Luke Kromenhoek pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:11
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+14
92.6%
Luke Kromenhoek run for 14 yds to the FSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
92.1%
Luke Kromenhoek run for 1 yd to the FSU 37Similar
Q2 11:40
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+7
92.1%
Luke Kromenhoek pass complete to Malik Benson for 7 yds to the FSU 44Similar
Q2 11:05
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+1
91.9%
Caziah Holmes run for 1 yd to the FSU 45Similar
Q2 10:24
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+42
92.1%
Luke Kromenhoek run for 42 yds to the MIA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+12
91.3%
Luke Kromenhoek run for 12 yds to the MIA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
91.1%
Lawrance Toafili run for no gain to the MIA 1Similar
Q2 8:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
91.0%
Luke Kromenhoek run for no gain to the MIA 1Similar
Q2 7:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
91.3%
Luke Kromenhoek run for no gain to the MIA 1Similar
Q2 6:44
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
88.9%
Caziah Holmes run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 7FG
24 plays · 88 yds · 6:3492% → 83%
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
91.9%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 7 yds to the MIA 17Similar
Q2 5:52
2ND & 3
OWN 17
+3
91.5%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 3 yds to the MIA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
91.6%
Cam Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+6
91.5%
Cam Ward pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 6 yds to the MIA 26Similar
Q2 4:22
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+11
91.1%
Cam Ward pass complete to Joshisa Trader for 11 yds to the MIA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
91.7%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 2 yds to the MIA 39Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+6
91.8%
Cam Ward run for 6 yds to the MIA 45Similar
Q2 2:36
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+1
91.4%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 1 yd to the MIA 46Similar
Q2 1:58
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+4
90.8%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
50
0
91.8%
Cam Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 10
50
0
91.8%
Damien Martinez run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 10
50
+16
91.3%
Cam Ward pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 16 yds to the FSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
92.0%
(00:44) WARD, Cameron pass to the left complete for 6 yards to HORTON, Isaiah caught at the NOLES28 and advanced to the NOLES28 (CYPRESS II, Fentrell), clock 00:43. PENALTY Before the snap, NOLES Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the NOLES34 to the NOLES29. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 5
OPP 29
0
91.9%
Cam Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 5
OPP 29
-5
91.9%
Cam Ward sacked by Darrell Jackson Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the FSU 34Similar
Q2 0:31
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+21
91.5%
Cam Ward pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 21 yds to the FSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+11
90.9%
Cam Ward run for 11 yds to the FSU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
85.4%
Cam Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
82.5%
Andres Borregales 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 8DOWNS
10 plays · 29 yds · 3:5211% → 11%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
89.5%
Luke Kromenhoek pass complete to Landen Thomas for 10 yds to the FSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
89.1%
Luke Kromenhoek pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+6
89.3%
Lawrance Toafili run for 6 yds to the FSU 41Similar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+1
89.5%
Luke Kromenhoek run for 1 yd to the FSU 42Similar
Q3 12:59
4TH & 3
OWN 42
+4
90.0%
Luke Kromenhoek pass complete to Kyle Morlock for 4 yds to the FSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
89.1%
Luke Kromenhoek run for 1 yd to the FSU 47Similar
Q3 11:42
2ND & 9
OWN 47
0
89.1%
Luke Kromenhoek pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:37
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+7
89.4%
Luke Kromenhoek pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for 7 yds to the MIA 46Similar
Q3 11:07
4TH & 2
OPP 46
0
89.3%
Luke Kromenhoek pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 9FG
11 plays · 30 yds · 5:0390% → 93%
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
90.2%
Damien Martinez run for 3 yds to the MIA 49Similar
Q3 10:33
2ND & 7
OWN 49
0
90.2%
Cam Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:29
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+6
89.7%
Cam Ward pass complete to Jacolby George for 6 yds to the FSU 45Similar
Q3 10:05
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+4
89.4%
Damien Martinez run for 4 yds to the FSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
90.4%
Cam Ward pass complete to Jacolby George for 7 yds to the FSU 34Similar
Q3 8:59
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+3
90.4%
Cam Ward run for 3 yds to the FSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-10
90.3%
Miami Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the FSU 40Similar
Q3 7:49
1ST & 19
OPP 40
+11
90.0%
Cam Ward pass complete to Elijah Arroyo for 11 yds to the FSU 29Similar
Q3 7:27
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+1
90.5%
Damien Martinez run for 1 yd to the FSU 28Similar
Q3 6:45
3RD & 7
OPP 28
+4
90.0%
Cam Ward pass complete to Samuel Brown Jr. for 4 yds to the FSU 24Similar
Q3 5:59
4TH & 3
OPP 24
+42
93.4%
Andres Borregales 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 10DOWNS
7 plays · 33 yds · 2:368% → 9%
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
91.9%
Lawrance Toafili run for 4 yds to the FSU 29Similar
Q3 5:22
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+29
91.2%
Luke Kromenhoek pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 29 yds to the MIA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
90.2%
Luke Kromenhoek sacked by Simeon Barrow Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the MIA 43Similar
Q3 4:11
2ND & 11
OPP 43
+7
90.5%
Luke Kromenhoek run for 7 yds to the MIA 36Similar
Q3 3:24
3RD & 4
OPP 36
0
90.0%
Luke Kromenhoek pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:21
4TH & 4
OPP 36
-6
90.6%
Luke Kromenhoek sacked by Akheem Mesidor for a loss of 6 yards to the MIA 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 11FG
7 plays · 31 yds · 2:3695% → 98%
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
94.5%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 3 yds to the MIA 45 fumbled, recovered by MIA Mark Fletcher Jr. M. Fletcher Jr. return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q3 2:44
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+8
94.5%
Cam Ward pass complete to Jacolby George for 8 yds to the FSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+13
94.8%
Cam Ward pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 13 yds to the FSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
95.2%
Cam Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:26
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
95.1%
Cam Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:21
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+7
94.9%
Cam Ward pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 7 yds to the FSU 27Similar
Q3 0:39
4TH & 3
OPP 27
+45
97.5%
Andres Borregales 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 12DOWNS
14 plays · 30 yds · 3:506% → 5%
Q3 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
94.2%
Lawrance Toafili run for 9 yds to the FSU 34Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-10
93.6%
TOAFILI, Lawrance rush to the left for a loss of 1 yard to the NOLES33 (BARON, Tyler), clock 00:00. PENALTY NOLES Holding on SMITH, Maurice enforced 10 yards from the NOLES34 to the NOLES24 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:59
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
94.3%
Luke Kromenhoek pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+15
94.6%
(14:53) KROMENHOEK, Luke pass deep to the left incomplete intended for POITIER, Kentron thrown to the NOLES40, clock 14:48. PENALTY CANES Roughing the Passer on BARON, Tyler enforced 15 yards from the NOLES24 to the NOLES39 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
93.7%
Caziah Holmes run for 6 yds to the FSU 45Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+7
93.6%
Caziah Holmes run for 7 yds to the MIA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
93.7%
Micahi Danzy run for a loss of 1 yard to the MIA 49Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 11
OPP 49
+4
93.7%
Luke Kromenhoek pass complete to Samuel Singleton Jr. for 4 yds to the MIA 45Similar
Q4 12:18
3RD & 7
OPP 45
0
94.9%
(12:18) KROMENHOEK, Luke scrambles to the right for no gain to the CANES45 (MAUIGOA, Francisco), out of bounds, clock 12:13. PENALTY NOLES Holding on SMITH, Maurice CANES Offsides on MOTEN, SR., Ahmad , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 11:52
3RD & 7
OPP 45
0
95.3%
Luke Kromenhoek pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:48
4TH & 7
OPP 45
0
95.4%
Luke Kromenhoek pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 13TD
15 plays · 55 yds · 7:1199% → 100%
Q4 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
99.2%
Ajay Allen run for 3 yds to the MIA 48Similar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+3
99.2%
Cam Ward pass complete to Samuel Brown Jr. for 3 yds to the FSU 49Similar
Q4 10:20
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+3
99.2%
Cam Ward pass complete to Jr. Chris Johnson for 3 yds to the FSU 46Similar
Q4 9:39
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+1
99.1%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 1 yd to the FSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-15
99.3%
(08:57) WARD, Cameron pass to the left complete for 15 yards to RESTREPO, Xavier caught at the NOLES31 and advanced to the NOLES30 (JOSEPH, Edwin), out of bounds, clock 08:53. PENALTY CANES Pass Interference on HORTON, Isaiah enforced 15 yards to the CANES40 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:36
1ST & 25
OWN 40
+6
99.2%
Ajay Allen run for 6 yds to the MIA 46Similar
Q4 8:17
2ND & 19
OWN 46
-3
99.2%
Cam Ward sacked by Darrell Jackson Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the MIA 43Similar
Q4 7:31
3RD & 22
OWN 43
+10
99.2%
(07:31) WARD, Cameron pass to the left complete for 13 yards to FLETCHER JR., Mark caught at the NOLES44 and advanced to the NOLES44, out of bounds, clock 07:23. PENALTY NOLES Holding on NICHELSON, Blake enforced 10 yards from the CANES43 to the NOLES47 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
99.3%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 4 yds to the FSU 43Similar
Q4 6:18
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+7
99.4%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 7 yds to the FSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
99.4%
(05:35) WARD, Cameron pass deep to the left incomplete intended for HORTON, Isaiah thrown to the NOLES10, clock 05:31. PENALTY NOLES Pass Interference on JONES, Quindarrius enforced 15 yards to the NOLES21 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+14
99.4%
Cam Ward pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 14 yds to the FSU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
99.4%
Cam Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.8%
Elijah Arroyo pass complete to Cam Ward for 7 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:250% → 0%
Q4 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
99.6%
Brock Glenn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:19
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
99.6%
Brock Glenn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:14
3RD & 10
OWN 26
-6
99.6%
Brock Glenn sacked by Rueben Bain Jr. and TEAM for a loss of 6 yards to the FSU 20Similar
Q4 3:59
4TH & 16
OWN 20
-4
99.6%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 53 yds , Ray Ray Joseph returns for a loss of 4 yards to the MIA 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 15TD
6 plays · 83 yds · 1:56100% → 100%
Q4 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+53
99.8%
Damien Martinez run for 53 yds to the FSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
99.9%
Cam Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:48
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+5
99.9%
Damien Martinez run for 5 yds to the FSU 25Similar
Q4 2:01
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+13
99.9%
Damien Martinez run for 13 yds to the FSU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
100.0%
Damien Martinez run for 12 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 16TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 1:310% → 0%
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
100.0%
Brock Glenn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
100.0%
Brock Glenn pass complete to Lawayne McCoy for 5 yds to the FSU 30Similar
Q4 1:37
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
100.0%
Brock Glenn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:34
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+12
100.0%
Brock Glenn run for 12 yds to the FSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+27
100.0%
Brock Glenn pass complete to Amaree Williams for 27 yds to the MIA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
100.0%
Brock Glenn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
100.0%
Brock Glenn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:54
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+11
100.0%
Brock Glenn run for 11 yds to the MIA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
100.0%
Brock Glenn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:37
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+15
100.0%
(00:37) GLENN, Brock pass deep to the left incomplete intended for WILLIAMS, Amaree thrown to the CANES2, clock 00:33. PENALTY CANES Pass Interference on HARRIS, Jaden enforced at the spot of the foul for 15 yards to the CANES5 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 0:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
100.0%
Brock Glenn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
100.0%
Brock Glenn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.6%
Brock Glenn pass complete to Malik Benson for 5 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 17END OF GAME
1 play · 6 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.8%
Jordan Lyle run for 6 yds to the MIA 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q3 5:59
Andres Borregales 42 yd FG GOOD
+3.3
TD · Q2 6:36
Timeout Miami, clock 06:36
+3
FG · Q2 0:00
Andres Borregales 20 yd FG GOOD
+2.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com