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Win probability · DUKE
modelDUKE aheadSMU aheadconfidence bandkey playDUKE scoreSMU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
OT 0:00 · Eli Pancol 25 Yd pass from Maalik Murphy (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 4:58: Kevin Jennings pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 81 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK) — SMU win probability +13.7 pts (now 89%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:11: Maalik Murphy pass complete to Jordan Moore for 12 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino PAT MISSED) — DUKE win probability +11.4 pts (now 27%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
- TD · Q4 9:02: Star Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD (Maalik Murphy pass to Eli Pancol for Two-Point Conversion) — DUKE win probability +33.5 pts (now 60%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
- TD · OT 0:00: Brashard Smith run for 24 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK) — SMU win probability +21.7 pts (now 81%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
- TD · OT 0:00: Eli Pancol 25 Yd pass from Maalik Murphy (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — DUKE win probability +22.7 pts (now 42%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
DUKE made the numbers' call on 6 of 8SMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
- Q1 6:42DUKE 4th & 6 at SMU 40, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call28.1%40% to convertField goal27.9%−0.234% to makePunt28.0%−0.1average punt
- Q1 5:31SMU 4th & 5 at SMU 45, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 71.6% before the snapGo for it71.6%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call71.7%average punt
- Q2 13:15SMU 4th & 1 at DUKE 1, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call63.0%59% to convertField goal61.3%−1.694% to makePunt57.2%−5.7average punt
- Q2 10:47DUKE 4th & 3 at DUKE 47, tiedClose callPunted · 34.2% before the snapGo for it34.3%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.0%−0.3average punt
- Q2 1:36DUKE 4th & 7 at DUKE 36, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.7% before the snapGo for it25.3%−0.637% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.9%average punt
- Q2 0:02DUKE 4th & 2 at SMU 48, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call28.5%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt27.3%−1.2average punt
- Q3 13:38DUKE 4th & 6 at DUKE 29, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.3% before the snapGo for it25.3%−0.739% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.1%average punt
- Q3 5:25DUKE 4th & 15 at SMU 45, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.3% before the snapGo for it25.3%−2.417% to convertField goal25.6%−2.125% to makePuntTheir call27.7%average punt
- Q4 15:00SMU 4th & 4 at SMU 42, up 8Close callPunted · 80.5% before the snapGo for it81.2%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call81.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 5:38DUKE 4th & 7 at SMU 24, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.3% before the snapGo for it53.9%−0.436% to convertField goalTheir call54.3%68% to makePunt35.5%−18.8average punt
- Q4 2:40DUKE 4th & 9 at SMU 38, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 3.8 ptsPunted · 56.0% before the snapGo for it54.3%32% to convertField goal53.1%−1.338% to makePuntTheir call50.6%−3.8average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
DUKE made the numbers' call on 3 of 3SMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 2:38DUKE Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call33.4%97% to makeGo for two33.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:15SMU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call66.7%97% to makeGo for two66.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:56SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call72.4%97% to makeGo for two72.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:58SMU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call83.8%97% to makeGo for two83.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:11DUKE Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call21.4%97% to makeGo for two21.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:02DUKE Touchdown, down 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersWent for two · convertedKick41.7%−0.197% to makeGo for twoTheir call41.8%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSMUDrive 1FUMBLE11 plays · 60 yds · 4:2779% → 77%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
20.9%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 6 yds to the SMU 38Similar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+15
21.1%
Duke Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Alex Howard) to the DUKE 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+14
21.2%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Brashard Smith for 14 yds to the DUKE 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-4
22.7%
Kevin Jennings run for a loss of 4 yards to the DUKE 8 Kevin Jennings fumbled, recovered by DUKE Ryan Smith R. Smith return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 2DOWNS10 plays · 52 yds · 3:4023% → 26%
Q1 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+12
23.3%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Eli Pancol for 12 yds to the DUKE 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 6
OWN 24
-4
23.7%
Maalik Murphy run for a loss of 4 yards to the DUKE 24 Maalik Murphy fumbled, recovered by DUKE Maalik Murphy M. Murphy return for 4 ydsSimilar
Q1 8:58
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+9
23.9%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Eli Pancol for 9 yds to the DUKE 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
24.3%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Eli Pancol for 8 yds to the DUKE 41Similar
Q1 8:18
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+15
24.8%
(08:18) MURPHY, Maalik pass deep to the right incomplete intended for MOORE, Jordan thrown to the SMU20, clock 08:32. PENALTY SMU Pass Interference on CROSSLEY, Brandon enforced 15 yards to the SMU44 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 7:29
3RD & 11
OPP 45
+5
25.0%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Star Thomas for 5 yds to the SMU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0975% → 74%
DUKEDrive 4TD9 plays · 95 yds · 2:4826% → 33%
Q1 4:50
2ND & 5
OWN 10
+7
26.2%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 7 yds to the DUKE 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+19
26.5%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Eli Pancol for 19 yds to the DUKE 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:16
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+11
26.8%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Eli Pancol for 11 yds to the DUKE 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
27.8%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 9 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
32.6%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 43 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5TD13 plays · 75 yds · 4:0468% → 72%
Q1 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+23
32.1%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 23 yds to the DUKE 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+16
31.3%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Matthew Hibner for 16 yds to the DUKE 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:35
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+4
32.9%
Duke Penalty, Face mask (0 yards) (Ozzie Nicholas) to the DUKE 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
33.7%
Kevin Jennings run for 1 yd to the DUKE 1 Kevin Jennings fumbled, recovered by SMU return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6PUNT7 plays · 22 yds · 2:2831% → 33%
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
30.6%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for no gain to the DUKE 25Similar
Q2 12:29
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
30.4%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Javon Harvey for 15 yds to the DUKE 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
32.6%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Javon Harvey for 3 yds to the DUKE 43Similar
Q2 10:47
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
32.5%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Roderick Daniels Jr. at the SMU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7TD19 plays · 85 yds · 7:0269% → 78%
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
30.8%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Matthew Hibner for 8 yds to the SMU 23Similar
Q2 7:44
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+3
28.8%
Key'Shawn Smith run for 3 yds to the DUKE 24 Key'Shawn Smith fumbled, recovered by SMU Key'Shawn Smith K. Smith return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q2 7:29
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+12
29.3%
Duke Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (12 Yards) to the DUKE 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:19
3RD & 8
OPP 14
+10
30.6%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jake Bailey for 10 yds to the DUKE 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 8PUNT6 plays · 3 yds · 2:1627% → 24%
Q2 2:49
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+6
26.4%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 6 yds to the DUKE 41Similar
Q2 1:36
4TH & 7
OWN 36
-6
24.4%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 45 yds , Roderick Daniels Jr. returns for a loss of 6 yards to the SMU 30 SMU Penalty, Offensive Holding (11 Yards) to the SMU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9INT4 plays · 27 yds · 1:0575% → 77%
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
22.6%
Kevin Jennings pass intercepted Cameron Bergeron return for a loss of 1 yard to the DUKE 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 10DOWNS5 plays · 8 yds · 0:1527% → 26%
SMUDrive 11FUMBLE1 play · 11 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
21.5%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Matthew Hibner for 11 yds Matthew Hibner fumbled, recovered by DUKE Tre Freeman T. Freeman return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 12END OF HALF3 plays · 11 yds · 0:0026% → 28%
DUKEDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:0325% → 24%
Q3 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
25.1%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 5 yds to the DUKE 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 14DOWNS9 plays · 68 yds · 2:3476% → 77%
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
23.8%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Matthew Hibner for 4 yds to the SMU 20Similar
Q3 12:39
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+72
24.1%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 72 yds for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-15
23.4%
SMU Penalty, turnover on downs. PENALTY Unsportsmanlike Conduct on BYRD, Savion enforced (-15 Yards) to the DUKE 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15PUNT12 plays · 39 yds · 4:5326% → 27%
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
26.2%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Eli Pancol for 6 yds to the DUKE 22Similar
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
26.9%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 5 yds to the DUKE 31Similar
Q3 7:52
3RD & 10
50
+10
27.7%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Eli Pancol for 10 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:09
3RD & 6
OPP 36
-9
30.5%
Maalik Murphy sacked by Cameron Robertson for a loss of 9 yards to the SMU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 16TD2 plays · 80 yds · 0:2376% → 89%
DUKEDrive 17TD9 plays · 75 yds · 2:3913% → 27%
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
13.3%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Star Thomas for 6 yds to the DUKE 31Similar
Q3 4:05
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+11
13.7%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Javon Harvey for 11 yds to the DUKE 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:49
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+18
13.8%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Jordan Moore for 18 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
15.1%
SMU Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Brashard Smith) to the SMU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:11
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+12
27.3%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Jordan Moore for 12 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 18PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 1:5181% → 81%
Q3 0:51
2ND & 9
OWN 37
-10
18.9%
(00:51) QB Keeper JENNINGS, Kevin rush to the right for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU36, out of bounds, clock 01:06. PENALTY SMU Holding on WILLIAMS, PJ enforced 10 yards from the SMU37 to the SMU27 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 0:35
2ND & 19
OWN 27
+9
20.3%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Brashard Smith for 9 yds to the SMU 36Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 42
+24
19.0%
Isaac Pearson punt for 46 yds , Que'Sean Brown returns for 24 yds to the DUKE 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19TD10 plays · 64 yds · 5:2524% → 60%
Q4 12:18
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+22
24.7%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Eli Pancol for 22 yds to the SMU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:16
3RD & 6
OPP 22
+14
24.7%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Jake Taylor for 14 yds to the SMU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
60.4%
Star Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD (Maalik Murphy pass to Eli Pancol for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 20INT3 plays · 0 yds · 0:2353% → 53%
DUKEDrive 21MISSED FG6 plays · 13 yds · 2:4761% → 63%
SMUDrive 22INT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3350% → 47%
Q4 4:51
2ND & 6
OWN 28
-5
49.1%
(04:51) JENNINGS, Kevin pass to the right complete for 0 yards to HUDSON, Jordan caught at the SMU27 and advanced to the SMU28 (BERGERON, Cameron;MOORE, Terry), clock 05:04. PENALTY Before the snap, SMU Illegal Motion on DIXON, Kelvontay enforced 5 yards from the SMU28 to the SMU23. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 3:42
3RD & 8
OWN 26
0
52.6%
Kevin Jennings pass intercepted Chandler Rivers return for no gain to the SMU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 23PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5865% → 60%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 24FUMBLE6 plays · 15 yds · 1:4848% → 51%
Q4 1:07
2ND & 6
OWN 35
0
48.8%
Kevin Jennings run for no gain to the SMU 14 Kevin Jennings fumbled, recovered by DUKE Ozzie Nicholas O. Nicholas return for 21 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 25MISSED FG4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5868% → 64%
SMUDrive 26TD2 plays · 25 yds · 0:0059% → 81%
DUKEDrive 27TD1 play · 25 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
42.1%
Eli Pancol 25 Yd pass from Maalik Murphy (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-42.1
TD · Q4 9:02
Star Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD (Maalik Murphy pass to Eli Pancol for Two-Point Conversion)
+33.5
TD · OT 0:00
Eli Pancol 25 Yd pass from Maalik Murphy (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
+22.7