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ORST

Oregon State 7 at California 44

CAL
2024 · Week 9 · Oct 26, 2024 · California Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · CAL
modelCAL aheadORST aheadconfidence bandkey playCAL scoreORST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGFGTDTDFGTDFGFGTDFGFGTDTDEnd of GameFG+0.5CAL 93.7%Derek Morris 46 yd FG GOODAWAY 0 - HOME 20 · Q2 9:31
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:31 · Derek Morris 46 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 60Home team on offense+13.8Pregame prior+23.6Score differential+9.6Blowout margin−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.4Garbage-time factor+3.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 8:59: Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Nyziah Hunter for 20 yds for a TD (Derek Morris KICK) — CAL win probability +1.5 pts (now 86%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 8:59: Timeout California, clock 08:59 — ORST win probability +1.6 pts (now 16%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 14:08: Derek Morris 33 yd FG GOOD — CAL win probability +2.9 pts (now 91%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 9:31: Timeout California, clock 09:31 — ORST win probability +0.9 pts (now 7%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 5:09: Jaivian Thomas 2 Yd Run (Fernando Mendoza Pass to Mikey Matthews for Two-Point Conversion) — CAL win probability +1.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CAL made the numbers' call on 6 of 6ORST made the numbers' call on 6 of 11
  1. Q1 10:04ORST 4th & 15 at ORST 1, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%−0.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:34ORST 4th & 3 at ORST 43, down 14
    Close callPunted · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.9%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:16CAL 4th & 10 at CAL 12, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.3%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:49ORST 4th & 6 at ORST 48, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:08CAL 4th & 8 at ORST 15, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.5%−0.6
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.1%
    83% to make
    Punt
    80.0%−4.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:31CAL 4th & 13 at ORST 28, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.3%−1.0
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.3%
    60% to make
    Punt
    84.8%−3.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:59ORST 4th & 5 at ORST 30, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.8%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:45ORST 4th & 8 at CAL 20, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.0%
    75% to make
    Punt
    -2.3%−4.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:35ORST 4th & 3 at ORST 32, down 31
    Close callWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:12CAL 4th & 1 at ORST 23, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    98.8%−0.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    98.4%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:37CAL 4th & 5 at ORST 7, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    98.9%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:27ORST 4th & 8 at CAL 29, down 34
    Close callWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%
    58% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:27ORST 4th & 8 at CAL 29, down 34
    Close callWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%
    58% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:12CAL 4th & 7 at ORST 20, up 41
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%
    75% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:25ORST 4th & 3 at CAL 39, down 44
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:15ORST 4th & 11 at CAL 36, down 44
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    42% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:00ORST 4th & 2 at CAL 2, down 44
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CAL made the numbers' call on 3 of 4ORST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 11:33CAL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:59CAL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:09CAL Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    96.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    96.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:36CAL Touchdown, up 40 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:00ORST Touchdown, down 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CALDrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:1984% → 84%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
83.8%
Jaydn Ott run for 1 yd to the CAL 26Similar
Q1 14:16
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+12
83.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 12 yds to the CAL 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
83.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 8 yds to the CAL 46Similar
Q1 13:36
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+1
83.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jeffrey Johnson for 1 yd to the CAL 47Similar
Q1 13:24
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+2
83.4%
Jaydn Ott run for 2 yds to the CAL 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+40
83.4%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 40 yds to the ORST 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
83.3%
Jaivian Thomas run for 2 yds to the ORST 9Similar
Q1 11:42
2ND & 8
OPP 9
0
83.2%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Jonathan BradySimilar
Q1 11:33
3RD & 8
OPP 9
+9
83.8%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete short right to Jaivian Thomas caught at ORS12, for 9 yards to the ORS00 lateral to Fernando Mendoza TOUCHDOWN (Derek Morris Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:1417% → 16%
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
83.5%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Trent Walker for 3 yds to the ORST 9Similar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 7
OWN 9
0
83.5%
Gevani McCoy pass incomplete to Jeremiah NogaSimilar
Q1 10:40
3RD & 7
OWN 9
-8
83.6%
Gevani McCoy sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the ORST 1Similar
Q1 10:04
4TH & 15
OWN 1
0
83.7%
Josh Green punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ORST 42 , Mikey Matthews returns for no gain to the ORST 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 3TD
4 plays · 42 yds · 0:5084% → 86%
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+27
84.0%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 27 yds to the ORST 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
84.1%
PENALTY CAL False Start (Matthews,Mikey) 5 yards from ORS15 to ORS20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:59
1ST & 15
OPP 20
+20
85.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Nyziah Hunter for 20 yds for a TD (Derek Morris KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 3:1416% → 15%
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
84.0%
Anthony Hankerson run for 3 yds to the ORST 28Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
84.7%
Anthony Hankerson run for 8 yds to the ORST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
84.8%
Gevani McCoy run for 4 yds to the ORST 40Similar
Q1 6:53
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+3
84.8%
Anthony Hankerson run for 3 yds to the ORST 43Similar
Q1 6:02
3RD & 3
OWN 43
0
84.6%
Anthony Hankerson run for no gain to the ORST 43Similar
Q1 5:34
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
84.9%
Josh Green punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Mikey Matthews at the CAL 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1687% → 87%
Q1 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
87.2%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Mikey MatthewsSimilar
Q1 5:28
2ND & 10
OWN 12
0
87.2%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Mikey MatthewsSimilar
Q1 5:24
3RD & 10
OWN 12
0
87.1%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Nyziah HunterSimilar
Q1 5:16
4TH & 10
OWN 12
0
87.0%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 44 yds to ORS44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2315% → 15%
Q1 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
84.8%
Gevani McCoy pass incomplete to Jermaine Terry IISimilar
Q1 5:04
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+4
84.9%
Salahadin Allah run for 4 yds to the ORST 48Similar
Q1 4:14
3RD & 6
OWN 48
0
84.6%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Anthony Hankerson for no gain to the ORST 48Similar
Q1 3:49
4TH & 6
OWN 48
0
84.7%
Josh Green punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Mikey Matthews at the CAL 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 7FG
11 plays · 71 yds · 4:2388% → 91%
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+15
87.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Mikey Matthews for 15 yds to the CAL 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
87.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 11 yds to the CAL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
88.0%
Jaydn Ott run for 3 yds to the CAL 37Similar
Q1 2:31
2ND & 13
OWN 37
+4
87.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Mikey Matthews for 4 yds to the CAL 41Similar
Q1 1:50
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+29
87.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 29 yds to the ORST 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
88.2%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Josiah Martin for 9 yds to the ORST 21Similar
Q1 0:53
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+4
88.0%
Jaivian Thomas run for 4 yds to the ORST 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
88.3%
Jaivian Thomas run for 5 yds to the ORST 12Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+3
88.2%
Jaydn Ott run for 3 yds to the ORST 15Similar
Q2 14:11
3RD & 8
OPP 15
0
88.1%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Trevor RogersSimilar
Q2 14:08
4TH & 8
OPP 15
+33
91.0%
Derek Morris 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 8INT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2112% → 12%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
87.9%
Anthony Hankerson run for 2 yds to the ORST 27Similar
Q2 13:21
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
88.1%
Anthony Hankerson run for 3 yds to the ORST 30Similar
Q2 12:39
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
88.0%
Gevani McCoy pass intercepted Craig Woodson return for no gain to the ORST 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 9FG
10 plays · 19 yds · 3:0292% → 94%
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+10
92.2%
(12:33) Shotgun Mendoza,Fernando pass incomplete short right to Matthews,Mikey thrown to ORS28 PENALTY ORS Holding (Vadrawale III,Sailasa) 10 yards from ORS47 to ORS37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
92.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Mikey Matthews for a loss of 1 yard to the ORST 38Similar
Q2 11:48
2ND & 11
OPP 38
+3
92.7%
Jaydn Ott run for 3 yds to the ORST 35Similar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+10
92.7%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Mikey Matthews for 10 yds to the ORST 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
93.1%
(10:34) Shotgun Mendoza,Fernando pass incomplete short middle to Endries,Jack thrown to ORS22 PENALTY CAL Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Williams III,Frederick) 5 yards from ORS25 to ORS30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:23
1ST & 15
OPP 30
0
93.2%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Josiah MartinSimilar
Q2 10:16
2ND & 15
OPP 30
+2
93.2%
Jaivian Thomas run for 2 yds to the ORST 28Similar
Q2 9:35
3RD & 13
OPP 28
0
93.2%
California Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 9:31
4TH & 13
OPP 28
+46
93.7%
Derek Morris 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:247% → 7%
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
92.8%
Salahadin Allah run for 3 yds to the ORST 28Similar
Q2 8:38
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
93.0%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Salahadin Allah for 2 yds to the ORST 30Similar
Q2 8:11
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
92.7%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Jermaine Terry IISimilar
Q2 7:59
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+13
93.0%
Josh Green punt for 53 yds , Mikey Matthews returns for 13 yds to the CAL 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 11TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 2:4194% → 97%
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
94.3%
Jaivian Thomas run for 2 yds to the CAL 32Similar
Q2 7:14
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+15
94.4%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 15 yds to the CAL 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
94.8%
Fernando Mendoza run for 11 yds to the ORST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+24
95.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jordan King for 24 yds to the ORST 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+16
95.6%
Jaivian Thomas run for 18 yds for a TDSimilar
Q2 5:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
97.4%
Jaivian Thomas 2 Yd Run (Fernando Mendoza Pass to Mikey Matthews for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 12MISSED FG
10 plays · 55 yds · 3:082% → 2%
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
97.6%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Taz Reddicks for 29 yds to the CAL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
97.3%
Gabarri Johnson pass complete to Anthony Hankerson for 6 yds to the CAL 40Similar
Q2 3:49
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+6
98.2%
Anthony Hankerson run for 6 yds to the CAL 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+12
97.3%
Anthony Hankerson run for 12 yds to the CAL 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
97.4%
Anthony Hankerson run for 2 yds to the CAL 24Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 12
OPP 24
+4
97.7%
Gabarri Johnson run for 4 yds to the CAL 20Similar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 8
OPP 20
0
97.7%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Jeremiah NogaSimilar
Q2 1:45
4TH & 8
OPP 20
+38
97.7%
Everett Hayes 38 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Derek WilkinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 13FG
12 plays · 79 yds · 1:2998% → 98%
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+24
98.2%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 24 yds to the CAL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
98.3%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Trond GrizzellSimilar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+6
98.4%
Fernando Mendoza run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:47
3RD & 4
50
+6
98.4%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 6 yds to the ORST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
98.6%
Fernando Mendoza run for 7 yds to the ORST 37Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+5
98.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 5 yds to the ORST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
98.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 4 yds to the ORST 28Similar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+18
98.7%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Nyziah Hunter for 18 yds to the ORST 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
98.7%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 9 yds to the ORST 1Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+19
98.4%
Derek Morris 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 14DOWNS
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:211% → 1%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.6%
Ben Gulbranson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
98.6%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Anthony Hankerson for 8 yds to the ORST 33Similar
Q3 14:08
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
99.0%
Gabarri Johnson run for 1 yd to the ORST 32Similar
Q3 13:35
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
99.0%
Gabarri Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 15FG
11 plays · 25 yds · 4:5099% → 100%
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
98.9%
Jaydn Ott run for 6 yds to the ORST 26Similar
Q3 12:49
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+2
99.0%
Jaydn Ott run for 2 yds to the ORST 24Similar
Q3 12:13
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+1
99.1%
Jaydn Ott run for 1 yd to the ORST 23Similar
Q3 11:12
4TH & 1
OPP 23
+1
99.1%
Fernando Mendoza run for 1 yd to the ORST 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-2
99.2%
Jaydn Ott run for 22 yds for a TDSimilar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 12
OPP 24
+12
99.3%
(10:53) Shotgun Ott,Jaydn rush right for 4 yards loss to the ORS28 (Foster,Dexter) PENALTY ORS Face Mask (Foster,Dexter) 12 yards from ORS24 to ORS12, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
99.3%
Fernando Mendoza run for no gain to the ORST 12Similar
Q3 9:47
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+4
99.4%
Jaydn Ott run for 4 yds to the ORST 8Similar
Q3 9:10
3RD & 6
OPP 8
+1
99.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 1 yd to the ORST 7Similar
Q3 8:37
4TH & 5
OPP 7
+25
99.5%
Derek Morris 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 16DOWNS
12 plays · 46 yds · 4:041% → 0%
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.4%
Ben Gulbranson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.4%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Bryce Caufield for 6 yds to the ORST 31Similar
Q3 7:29
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
99.5%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to David Wells Jr. for 6 yds to the ORST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+21
99.5%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Bryce Caufield for 21 yds to the CAL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
99.5%
Anthony Hankerson run for 9 yds to the CAL 33Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+2
99.5%
Anthony Hankerson run for 2 yds to the CAL 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
99.6%
Salahadin Allah run for 2 yds to the CAL 29Similar
Q3 4:36
2ND & 8
OPP 29
0
99.6%
Ben Gulbranson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:32
3RD & 8
OPP 29
0
99.6%
Ben Gulbranson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:27
4TH & 8
OPP 29
0
99.6%
Ben Gulbranson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:27
4TH & 8
OPP 29
0
99.6%
Ben Gulbranson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 17TD
9 plays · 71 yds · 3:39100% → 100%
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+35
99.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Nyziah Hunter for 35 yds to the ORST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+12
99.7%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 12 yds to the ORST 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+12
99.7%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Nyziah Hunter for 12 yds to the ORST 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
99.7%
Nyziah Hunter run for 6 yds to the ORST 6Similar
Q3 1:38
2ND & 4
OPP 6
0
99.7%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:30
3RD & 4
OPP 6
+5
99.7%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 5 yds for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.8%
Jamaal Wiley run for no gain to the ORST 1Similar
Q3 0:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.8%
Jamaal Wiley run for 1 yd for a TD (Derek Morris KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 18FG
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:48100% → 100%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-15
99.8%
California Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the ORST 37Similar
Q4 14:44
2ND & 24
OPP 37
+17
99.8%
Chandler Rogers run for 17 yds to the ORST 20Similar
Q4 14:17
3RD & 7
OPP 20
0
99.8%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:12
4TH & 7
OPP 20
+38
99.8%
Derek Morris 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 19TD
21 plays · 75 yds · 9:070% → 0%
Q4 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Ben Gulbranson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+23
99.9%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Trent Walker for 23 yds to the ORST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
99.9%
Salahadin Allah run for 4 yds to the ORST 44 Salahadin Allah fumbled, recovered by ORST Ben GulbransonSimilar
Q4 12:53
2ND & 14
OWN 44
0
99.9%
(12:53) No Huddle-Shotgun Gulbranson,Ben pass incomplete short left to Card,Zachary thrown to CAL48 PENALTY CAL Holding declined CAL Holding (Harris,Marcus) 10 yards from ORS44 to CAL46, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
99.9%
Salahadin Allah run for 2 yds to the CAL 44Similar
Q4 11:54
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+4
99.9%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Jeremiah Noga for 4 yds to the CAL 40Similar
Q4 11:25
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+1
99.9%
Salahadin Allah run for 1 yd to the CAL 39Similar
Q4 10:25
4TH & 3
OPP 39
+4
99.9%
Ben Gulbranson run for 4 yds to the CAL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
99.9%
Anthony Hankerson run for 2 yds to the CAL 33Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+3
99.9%
Anthony Hankerson run for 3 yds to the CAL 36Similar
Q4 8:31
3RD & 11
OPP 36
0
99.9%
Ben Gulbranson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:15
4TH & 11
OPP 36
+17
99.9%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Trent Walker for 17 yds to the CAL 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
99.9%
Anthony Hankerson run for 2 yds to the CAL 21Similar
Q4 6:57
2ND & 12
OPP 21
+13
99.9%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Trent Walker for 13 yds to the CAL 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
99.9%
Trent Walker pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
99.9%
Anthony Hankerson run for 4 yds to the CAL 4Similar
Q4 5:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
99.9%
Anthony Hankerson run for 2 yds to the CAL 2Similar
Q4 5:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Trent Walker for 2 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 20END OF GAME
10 plays · 5 yds · 4:52100% → 100%
Q4 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.9%
Kadarius Calloway run for 9 yds to the CAL 34Similar
Q4 4:16
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
99.9%
Kadarius Calloway run for 5 yds to the CAL 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
100.0%
Kadarius Calloway run for 3 yds to the CAL 42Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+1
100.0%
Josiah Martin run for 1 yd to the CAL 43Similar
Q4 2:01
3RD & 6
OWN 43
-9
100.0%
Chandler Rogers run for 6 yds to the CAL 49 for a 1ST down California Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (J.T. Byrne) to the CAL 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
100.0%
C. Rogers takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 11
OWN 33
-2
100.0%
C. Rogers takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 13
OWN 31
-1
100.0%
C. Rogers takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q2 14:08
Derek Morris 33 yd FG GOOD
+2.9
TD · Q2 5:09
Jaivian Thomas 2 Yd Run (Fernando Mendoza Pass to Mikey Matthews for Two-Point Conversion)
+1.7
TD · Q1 8:59
Timeout California, clock 08:59
-1.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com