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SMU

SMU 40 at Stanford 10

STAN
2024 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2024 · Stanford Stadium
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Win probability · STAN
modelSTAN aheadSMU aheadconfidence bandkey playSTAN scoreSMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGFGSAFETYTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:33 · Aidan Flintoft punt for 46 yds , Roderick Daniels Jr. returns for no gain to the SMU 45 , returns for 17 yds to the SMU 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+58.0+29.00−29.0−58.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 33Home team on offense−5.4Pregame prior−29.5Score differential−2.5Garbage-time factor−1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:31: Kevin Jennings pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 45 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK) — SMU win probability +2.1 pts (now 84%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 1:47: Kevin Jennings pass complete to RJ Maryland for 38 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK) — SMU win probability +4.3 pts (now 89%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 6:39: Elijah Brown pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 18 yds for a TD (Emmet Kenney KICK) — STAN win probability +1.2 pts (now 12%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:51: LJ Johnson Jr. run for 5 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK) — SMU win probability +5.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q2 0:00: Collin Rogers 51 yd FG GOOD — SMU win probability +0.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
STAN made the numbers' call on 12 of 13SMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 12:02STAN 4th & 11 at STAN 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.1%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:55SMU 4th & 2 at STAN 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    83.5%−0.2
    32% to make
    Punt
    83.5%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:30STAN 4th & 7 at SMU 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    17.2%−0.1
    28% to make
    Punt
    17.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:44STAN 4th & 21 at SMU 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.3%−0.3
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    17.4%−0.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    17.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:33STAN 4th & 9 at STAN 26, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.6%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:16SMU 4th & 5 at midfield, up 21
    Close callPunted · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.8%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:10STAN 4th & 13 at STAN 20, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.2%−0.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:23STAN 4th & 11 at SMU 47, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.7%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:18STAN 4th & 8 at STAN 32, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.6%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:46STAN 4th & 11 at STAN 24, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%−1.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:54STAN 4th & 5 at SMU 23, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.2%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.4%
    70% to make
    Punt
    1.7%−4.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:38SMU 4th & 4 at SMU 31, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.7%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:53STAN 4th & 11 at SMU 37, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.6%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    6.7%
    40% to make
    Punt
    6.6%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:38SMU 4th & 8 at SMU 39, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.8%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.1%
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:36STAN 4th & 10 at STAN 40, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.5%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:59SMU 4th & 12 at STAN 31, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%−0.3
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.5%
    54% to make
    Punt
    97.2%−0.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:19SMU 4th & 17 at SMU 41, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%−0.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:46SMU 4th & 1 at STAN 3, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.0%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    98.7%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    97.9%−1.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:59STAN 4th & 1 at SMU 36, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:49STAN 4th & 1 at SMU 25, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
STAN made the numbers' call on 1 of 1SMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 14:41SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:31SMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:47SMU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:39STAN Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:51SMU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 5:03SMU Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1TD
1 play · 87 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q1 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+87
16.2%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Moochie Dixon for 87 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 2:3816% → 17%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
16.2%
Micah Ford run for 4 yds to the STAN 29Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
16.3%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Micah Ford for 7 yds to the STAN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
16.5%
Micah Ford run for no gain to the STAN 36Similar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-1
16.6%
Micah Ford run for a loss of 1 yard to the STAN 35Similar
Q1 12:17
3RD & 11
OWN 35
0
16.7%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:02
4TH & 11
OWN 35
0
16.8%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 14 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:0883% → 83%
Q1 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
16.7%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 7 yds to the STAN 42Similar
Q1 11:36
2ND & 3
OPP 42
0
16.7%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:30
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+1
16.7%
Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 1 yd to the STAN 41Similar
Q1 10:55
4TH & 2
OPP 41
0
16.9%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 4PUNT
11 plays · 14 yds · 4:0417% → 18%
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+13
17.3%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 13 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
17.5%
Micah Ford run for 1 yd to the SMU 45Similar
Q1 9:56
2ND & 9
OPP 45
-3
17.5%
Ashton Daniels run for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 48Similar
Q1 9:14
3RD & 12
OPP 48
+5
17.5%
Micah Ford run for 5 yds to the SMU 43Similar
Q1 8:30
4TH & 7
OPP 43
+9
17.7%
Ashton Daniels run for 9 yds to the SMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
18.4%
Chris Davis Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 35Similar
Q1 7:13
2ND & 11
OPP 35
0
18.4%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:06
3RD & 11
OPP 35
-10
18.1%
(07:06) DANIELS, Ashton scrambles to the left for a gain of 12 yards to the SMU23 (KILGORE, Alexander), clock 06:58. PENALTY STAN Holding on HOUSE, Kahlil enforced 10 yards from the SMU35 to the SMU45 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 6:46
3RD & 21
OPP 45
0
17.9%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:44
4TH & 21
OPP 45
0
17.7%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5TD
6 plays · 93 yds · 2:0382% → 84%
Q1 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
18.2%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the SMU 10Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 7
OWN 10
+10
18.1%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 10 yds to the SMU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+20
18.1%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 20 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
17.7%
Kevin Jennings run for 7 yds to the SMU 47Similar
Q1 4:57
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+8
17.7%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 8 yds to the STAN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
15.6%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 45 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:5517% → 16%
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
16.6%
Chris Davis Jr. run for no gain to the STAN 25Similar
Q1 3:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
16.5%
Chris Davis Jr. run for no gain to the STAN 25Similar
Q1 3:06
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+1
15.9%
Micah Ford run for 1 yd to the STAN 26Similar
Q1 2:33
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+46
16.0%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 46 yds , Roderick Daniels Jr. returns for no gain to the SMU 45 , returns for 17 yds to the SMU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7TD
2 plays · 55 yds · 0:3185% → 89%
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+17
15.5%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to RJ Maryland for 17 yds to the STAN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
11.2%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to RJ Maryland for 38 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 8INT
8 plays · 35 yds · 2:2513% → 13%
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
12.8%
(01:47) BROWN, Elijah pass deep to the right incomplete intended for MOSLEY V, Emmett thrown to the SMU40, clock 01:40. PENALTY SMU Pass Interference on BOOKER JR., Anthony enforced 15 yards to the STAN40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-6
13.2%
Elijah Brown sacked by Isaiah Smith for a loss of 6 yards to the STAN 34Similar
Q1 0:54
2ND & 16
OWN 34
+15
12.6%
SMU Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Jaelyn Davis-Robinson) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:26
1ST & 10
50
-15
13.1%
Stanford Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Sam Roush) to the STAN 20Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 20
OWN 40
+1
12.4%
Elijah Brown pass complete to Sam Roush for 1 yd to the STAN 41Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 25
OWN 35
+5
12.2%
SMU Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the STAN 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 19
OWN 41
+19
12.4%
Elijah Brown pass complete to Sam Roush for 19 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-25
12.7%
Elijah Brown pass intercepted Deuce Harmon return for 25 yds to the SMU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5690% → 90%
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
10.4%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jake Bailey for 2 yds to the SMU 47Similar
Q2 13:47
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+3
10.3%
Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:20
3RD & 5
50
0
10.2%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:16
4TH & 5
50
0
10.5%
Isaac Pearson punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 1:5812% → 17%
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
11.6%
Elijah Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:02
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+15
11.5%
Micah Ford run for 15 yds to the STAN 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
11.5%
Elijah Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 10
OWN 23
-10
20.7%
(12:15) FORD, Micah rush to the left for no gain to the STAN23 (WALKER, Ahmad), out of bounds, clock 12:09. PENALTY STAN Holding on DAVIS JR., Chris enforced 10 yards from the STAN23 to the STAN13 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:52
2ND & 20
OWN 13
0
17.6%
Elijah Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:40
3RD & 20
OWN 13
+7
17.5%
Elijah Brown pass complete to Sam Roush for 7 yds to the STAN 20Similar
Q2 11:10
4TH & 13
OWN 20
+35
17.0%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 35 yds , Roderick Daniels Jr. returns for no gain to the SMU 46 , returns for no gain to the SMU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:3019% → 11%
Q2 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
18.5%
Emmett Mosley V run for 3 yds to the SMU 43Similar
Q2 10:14
2ND & 7
OPP 43
-4
10.8%
Elijah Brown sacked by Jahfari Harvey for a loss of 4 yards to the SMU 47Similar
Q2 9:28
3RD & 11
OPP 47
0
10.7%
Elijah Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:23
4TH & 11
OPP 47
0
10.5%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 41 yds, downed at the SMU 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 12INT
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:3289% → 89%
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+1
10.8%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the SMU 7Similar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 9
OWN 7
0
10.7%
Kevin Jennings pass intercepted Mitch Leigber return for no gain to the SMU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 13TD
4 plays · 14 yds · 1:5311% → 12%
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-3
10.6%
Micah Ford run for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 17Similar
Q2 7:44
2ND & 13
OPP 17
-5
10.6%
Stanford Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the SMU 22Similar
Q2 7:27
2ND & 18
OPP 22
+4
11.0%
Elijah Brown run for 4 yds to the SMU 18Similar
Q2 6:39
3RD & 14
OPP 18
+18
12.2%
Elijah Brown pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 18 yds for a TD (Emmet Kenney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 14TD
16 plays · 59 yds · 4:3986% → 95%
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
14.4%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:27
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-10
14.5%
SMU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the SMU 16Similar
Q2 6:08
2ND & 20
OWN 16
+8
14.6%
Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 8 yds to the SMU 24Similar
Q2 5:27
3RD & 12
OWN 24
+15
14.8%
(05:27) JENNINGS, Kevin pass up the middle incomplete intended for DANIELS, JR., Roderick thrown to the SMU30, clock 05:24. PENALTY STAN Roughing the Passer on GALVAN, Jahsiah enforced 15 yards from the SMU24 to the SMU39 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
13.8%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
50
+5
13.6%
Kevin Jennings run for 5 yds to the STAN 45Similar
Q2 4:42
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+1
13.5%
Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 1 yd to the STAN 44Similar
Q2 4:06
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+14
13.3%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to LJ Johnson Jr. for 14 yds to the STAN 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+13
13.1%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 13 yds to the STAN 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
12.9%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 4 yds to the STAN 13Similar
Q2 2:54
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+4
12.8%
Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 4 yds to the STAN 9Similar
Q2 2:13
3RD & 2
OPP 9
+4
12.7%
Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 4 yds to the STAN 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
9.9%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
4.9%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 5 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:2610% → 9%
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
9.5%
Micah Ford run for 2 yds to the STAN 32Similar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
9.4%
Elijah Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:22
3RD & 8
OWN 32
0
9.3%
Elijah Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:18
4TH & 8
OWN 32
0
9.2%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 16FG
7 plays · 46 yds · 1:1195% → 96%
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
5.2%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
5.2%
Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 2 yds to the SMU 22Similar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+10
5.3%
Kevin Jennings run for 10 yds to the SMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
5.0%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 11 yds to the SMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+23
4.7%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jake Bailey for 23 yds to the STAN 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+51
4.2%
Collin Rogers 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:148% → 8%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
8.1%
Elijah Brown sacked by Jahfari Harvey for a loss of 5 yards to the STAN 20Similar
Q3 14:23
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
7.9%
Elijah Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:20
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+4
7.9%
Elijah Brown pass complete to Micah Ford for 4 yds to the STAN 24Similar
Q3 13:46
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+48
7.8%
Aidan Flintoft punt for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 18FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:3710% → 10%
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
9.8%
Elijah Brown pass complete to Chris Davis Jr. for 5 yds to the SMU 23Similar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 5
OPP 23
0
9.6%
Elijah Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:04
3RD & 5
OPP 23
0
9.2%
Elijah Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:54
4TH & 5
OPP 23
+42
9.5%
Emmet Kenney 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:1194% → 95%
Q3 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+10
6.3%
Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 10 yds to the SMU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
5.8%
Brashard Smith run for 5 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
5.3%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:49
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+1
5.3%
Kevin Jennings run for 1 yd to the SMU 31Similar
Q3 11:38
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
5.3%
Isaac Pearson punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 20DOWNS
12 plays · 41 yds · 4:388% → 6%
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
8.3%
Chris Davis Jr. run for 3 yds to the STAN 25Similar
Q3 10:53
2ND & 7
OWN 25
0
8.2%
Elijah Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:50
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+17
8.0%
Elijah Brown pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 17 yds to the STAN 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
7.7%
Elijah Brown run for 4 yds to the STAN 46Similar
Q3 9:27
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+7
7.6%
Elijah Brown pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 7 yds to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
6.8%
Elijah Brown run for 7 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q3 8:02
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+4
6.7%
Micah Ford run for 4 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
6.3%
Elijah Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:33
2ND & 10
OPP 36
-1
6.3%
Chris Davis Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 37Similar
Q3 6:59
3RD & 11
OPP 37
0
6.1%
Elijah Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:53
4TH & 11
OPP 37
0
5.9%
Elijah Brown pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 2 yds · 2:1597% → 98%
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
3.2%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-10
3.2%
(06:35) SMITH, Brashard rush to the left for a gain of 3 yards to the SMU40 (BERNADEL, Gaethan), clock 06:30. PENALTY SMU Holding on PARR, Logan enforced 10 yards from the SMU37 to the SMU27 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 20
OWN 27
+5
3.3%
(06:25) JENNINGS, Kevin pass to the right complete for 11 yards to BAILEY, Jake caught at the SMU38 and advanced to the SMU38, out of bounds, clock 06:20. PENALTY STAN Offsides on BAILEY, David enforced 5 yards from the SMU27 to the SMU32 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:08
2ND & 15
OWN 32
+7
3.1%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 7 yds to the SMU 39Similar
Q3 5:29
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+5
2.9%
Kevin Jennings run for 5 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q3 4:48
4TH & 3
OWN 44
-5
3.1%
SMU Penalty, Illegal Snap enforced (TEAM) to the SMU 39Similar
Q3 4:38
4TH & 8
OWN 39
0
3.0%
Isaac Pearson punt for 41 ydsSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
2.1%
(04:30) BROWN, Elijah pass up the middle complete for 11 yards to MOSLEY V, Emmett caught at the STAN31 and advanced to the STAN31 (MCGILL, Jonathan), clock 04:24. PENALTY STAN Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on MAIKKULA, Jake enforced 5 yards from the STAN20 to the STAN15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:292% → 2%
Q3 4:05
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+25
2.1%
Elijah Brown pass complete to Sam Roush for 25 yds to the STAN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-3
2.2%
Elijah Brown sacked by Elijah Roberts and Isaiah Smith for a loss of 3 yards to the STAN 37Similar
Q3 3:24
2ND & 13
OWN 37
+3
1.9%
Elijah Brown run for 3 yds to the STAN 40Similar
Q3 2:43
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
1.8%
Elijah Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:36
4TH & 10
OWN 40
0
1.8%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 23MISSED FG
7 plays · 49 yds · 2:3198% → 98%
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+40
2.5%
Brashard Smith run for 40 yds to the STAN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
2.2%
Brashard Smith run for 5 yds to the STAN 35Similar
Q3 1:22
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+6
2.0%
Brashard Smith run for 6 yds to the STAN 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
2.0%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 7 yds to the STAN 22Similar
Q3 0:43
2ND & 3
OPP 22
-5
1.9%
Kevin Jennings sacked by Jshawn Frausto-Ramos for a loss of 5 yards to the STAN 27Similar
Q3 0:05
3RD & 8
OPP 27
-4
2.0%
Kevin Jennings sacked by Omar Staples for a loss of 4 yards to the STAN 31Similar
Q4 14:59
4TH & 12
OPP 31
+48
2.3%
Collin Rogers 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 24INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:351% → 1%
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
1.4%
Elijah Brown pass complete to Emmett Mosley V for no gain to the STAN 31Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+15
1.4%
SMU Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Anthony Booker Jr.) to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:4698% → 98%
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-3
1.9%
Kevin Jennings run for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 45Similar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 13
OWN 45
+2
1.9%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jake Bailey for 2 yds to the SMU 47Similar
Q4 14:05
3RD & 11
OWN 47
-6
1.9%
Kevin Jennings sacked by David Bailey for a loss of 6 yards to the SMU 41Similar
Q4 12:19
4TH & 17
OWN 41
0
2.0%
Isaac Pearson punt for 58 yds, downed at the STAN 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 26SF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:391% → 1%
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
1.0%
Chris Davis Jr. run for 2 yds to the STAN 3Similar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 8
OWN 3
-3
0.9%
Cale Sanders Jr. SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 27TD
15 plays · 63 yds · 6:2999% → 100%
Q4 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
1.3%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:26
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+13
1.3%
Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:56
1ST & 10
50
+4
1.2%
Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 4 yds to the STAN 46Similar
Q4 10:27
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+3
1.1%
Brashard Smith run for 3 yds to the STAN 43Similar
Q4 9:53
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+8
1.1%
Kevin Jennings run for 8 yds to the STAN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
1.0%
(09:14) JENNINGS, Kevin pass to the left complete for 2 yards to SMITH, Brashard caught at the STAN37 and advanced to the STAN33 (SINCLAIR, Tristan), out of bounds, clock 09:09. PENALTY Before the snap, SMU Illegal Motion on SMITH, Brashard enforced 5 yards from the STAN35 to the STAN40. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:59
1ST & 15
OPP 40
0
1.0%
Brashard Smith run for no gain to the STAN 40Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 15
OPP 40
+9
0.9%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Brashard Smith for 9 yds to the STAN 31Similar
Q4 7:51
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+19
0.9%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jake Bailey for 19 yds to the STAN 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+9
0.8%
Brashard Smith run for 9 yds to the STAN 3Similar
Q4 7:07
2ND & 1
OPP 3
-1
0.8%
Brashard Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the STAN 4Similar
Q4 6:32
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+1
0.8%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the STAN 3Similar
Q4 5:46
4TH & 1
OPP 3
+1
0.6%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the STAN 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.1%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 28DOWNS
15 plays · 50 yds · 4:130% → 0%
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
0.1%
Micah Ford run for 1 yd to the STAN 26Similar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
0.1%
Elijah Brown pass complete to Sam Roush for 10 yds to the STAN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
0.1%
Elijah Brown pass complete to Emmett Mosley V for 6 yds to the STAN 42Similar
Q4 3:36
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+13
0.0%
Elijah Brown pass complete to Sam Roush for 13 yds to the SMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
0.1%
Elijah Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 46Similar
Q4 2:51
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+9
0.0%
Elijah Brown pass complete to Tiger Bachmeier for 9 yds to the SMU 37Similar
Q4 2:31
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+1
0.0%
Micah Ford run for 1 yd to the SMU 36Similar
Q4 1:59
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+2
0.0%
Elijah Brown pass complete to Tiger Bachmeier for 2 yds to the SMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-6
0.0%
Elijah Brown sacked by Brandon Miyazono for a loss of 6 yards to the SMU 40Similar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 16
OPP 40
+10
0.0%
Elijah Brown pass complete to Emmett Mosley V for 10 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q4 0:57
3RD & 6
OPP 30
0
0.0%
Elijah Brown run for no gain to the SMU 30Similar
Q4 0:49
4TH & 6
OPP 30
+5
0.0%
SMU Penalty, Offsides (Cameron Robertson) to the SMU 25Similar
Q4 0:49
4TH & 1
OPP 25
0
0.0%
Justin Lamson run for no gain to the SMU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 29END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
0.1%
(00:42) [NHSG] Kneel down by STONE, Preston at SMU24 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:51
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 5 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)
-5
TD · Q1 1:47
Kevin Jennings pass complete to RJ Maryland for 38 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)
-4.3
TD · Q1 4:31
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 45 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)
-2.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com