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MIA

Miami 52 at Louisville 45

LOU
2024 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2024 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadMIA aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scoreMIA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFUMBLEFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:38 · Tyler Shough pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 12 yds to the MIA 32 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+41.0+20.50−20.5−41.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 173Home team on offense−37.7Pregame prior−0.6Garbage-time factor−16.7Score differential−17.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−10.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 6:59: Tyler Shough pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 21 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK) — LOU win probability +16.8 pts (now 51%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:19: Cam Ward pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 2 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +21.8 pts (now 78%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:22: Tyler Shough pass complete to Duke Watson for 4 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK) — LOU win probability +25.3 pts (now 58%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:17: Ajay Allen run for 2 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +21.9 pts (now 82%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:54: Tyler Shough pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 4 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK) — LOU win probability +20.5 pts (now 24%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6MIA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 13:44LOU 4th & 8 at LOU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.4%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:34MIA 4th & 15 at LOU 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.7%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.9%
    40% to make
    Punt
    57.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:26LOU 4th & 1 at LOU 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    41.8%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:49LOU 4th & 3 at LOU 42, down 3
    Close callPunted · 42.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.5%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:24MIA 4th & 1 at MIA 25, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    55.3%−1.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:09MIA 4th & 24 at MIA 43, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.8%−2.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:38LOU 4th & 16 at MIA 34, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%−0.8
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.7%
    47% to make
    Punt
    28.8%−0.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:57MIA 4th & 18 at MIA 34, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.6%−1.8
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:38MIA 4th & 1 at MIA 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    50.3%−2.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:10LOU 4th & 7 at LOU 28, down 7
    Numbers favored punt by 1.6 ptsWent for it · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.6%−1.6
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    31.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 1:38LOU 4th & 9 at MIA 44, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.9%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    3.0%
    27% to make
    Punt
    2.6%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LOU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6MIA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 7:15LOU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:05MIA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:32MIA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:32LOU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:21MIA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:06LOU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:59LOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 3:19MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 13:22LOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 11:17MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 4:05MIA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.9%−0.8
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 0:54LOU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.1%−2.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LOUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5929% → 29%
Q1 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
29.0%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:38
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+2
29.0%
Isaac Brown run for 2 yds to the LOU 26Similar
Q1 13:52
3RD & 8
OWN 26
0
29.3%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:44
4TH & 8
OWN 26
0
29.4%
Brady Hodges punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Xavier Restrepo at the MIA 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 2FG
14 plays · 34 yds · 5:0571% → 69%
Q1 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
29.5%
Cam Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:26
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+17
29.6%
Cam Ward pass complete to Samuel Brown for 17 yds to the MIA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
29.5%
Cam Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:08
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+9
29.6%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 9 yds to the LOU 45Similar
Q1 12:30
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+1
29.8%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 1 yd to the LOU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
29.9%
Cam Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:53
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+2
30.0%
Cam Ward pass complete to Mark Fletcher Jr. for 2 yds to the LOU 42Similar
Q1 11:16
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+10
30.2%
Cam Ward run for 10 yds to the LOU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
30.3%
Cam Ward pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 3 yds to the LOU 29Similar
Q1 10:14
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+1
30.4%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 1 yd to the LOU 28Similar
Q1 9:38
3RD & 6
OPP 28
-15
30.9%
Miami Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Elijah Arroyo) to the LOU 43Similar
Q1 9:31
3RD & 21
OPP 43
-5
31.3%
Miami Penalty, False Start (Jalen Rivers) to the LOU 48Similar
Q1 9:13
3RD & 26
OPP 48
+11
31.4%
Cam Ward run for 11 yds to the LOU 37Similar
Q1 8:34
4TH & 15
OPP 37
+55
31.4%
Andres Borregales 55 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 3TD
4 plays · 68 yds · 0:5731% → 34%
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+17
31.4%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Chris Bell for 17 yds to the LOU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
32.1%
Isaac Brown run for 8 yds to the MIA 43Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+43
34.1%
Isaac Brown run for 43 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 4TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 1:5766% → 69%
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
33.6%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 7 yds to the MIA 37Similar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+23
33.4%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 23 yds to the LOU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
33.3%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 10 yds to the LOU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
33.2%
Cam Ward pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 3 yds to the LOU 27Similar
Q1 5:05
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+27
31.4%
Cam Ward pass complete to Jacolby George for 27 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 19 yds · 4:0532% → 34%
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
32.2%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+8
32.2%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Mark Redman for 8 yds to the LOU 31Similar
Q1 4:09
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+1
32.3%
Isaac Brown run for 1 yd to the LOU 32Similar
Q1 3:26
4TH & 1
OWN 32
+3
32.7%
Tyler Shough run for 3 yds to the LOU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
33.4%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Jamari Johnson for 6 yds to the LOU 41Similar
Q1 2:12
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+1
34.6%
Isaac Brown run for 1 yd to the LOU 42Similar
Q1 1:23
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
34.6%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Donald Chaney for no gain to the LOU 42Similar
Q1 0:49
4TH & 3
OWN 42
+8
33.9%
Brady Hodges punt for 45 yds , Ray Ray Joseph returns for 8 yds to the MIA 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 6TD
4 plays · 79 yds · 1:0566% → 72%
Q1 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+18
34.0%
Cam Ward pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 18 yds to the MIA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
33.2%
Damien Martinez run for 9 yds to the MIA 48Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+3
32.7%
Damien Martinez run for 3 yds to the LOU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:32
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
28.0%
Cam Ward pass complete to Samuel Brown for 49 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:5129% → 39%
Q2 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
28.7%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Mark Redman for 7 yds to the LOU 32Similar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
28.9%
Isaac Brown run for no gain to the LOU 32Similar
Q2 13:10
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+26
28.3%
Donald Chaney run for 26 yds to the MIA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
29.7%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:36
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+13
29.6%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 13 yds to the MIA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
30.3%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:53
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+27
29.9%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Chris Bell for 27 yds to the MIA 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
30.0%
Isaac Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the MIA 3Similar
Q2 10:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
39.1%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Mark Redman for 3 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 8PUNT
11 plays · 27 yds · 5:0765% → 63%
Q2 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
35.4%
Cam Ward pass complete to Jacolby George for 6 yds to the MIA 22Similar
Q2 9:51
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+3
35.1%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 3 yds to the MIA 25Similar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 1
OWN 25
0
35.5%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for no gain to the MIA 25Similar
Q2 8:24
4TH & 1
OWN 25
+3
36.9%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 3 yds to the MIA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+18
34.8%
Cam Ward pass complete to Mark Fletcher Jr. for 18 yds to the MIA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
33.5%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 11 yds to the LOU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-9
33.3%
Cam Ward sacked by Jordan Guerad for a loss of 9 yards to the MIA 48Similar
Q2 6:08
2ND & 19
OWN 48
-5
34.7%
Cam Ward sacked by Dezmond Tell for a loss of 5 yards to the MIA 43Similar
Q2 5:21
3RD & 24
OWN 43
0
35.6%
Cam Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:09
4TH & 24
OWN 43
+7
36.9%
Dylan Joyce punt for 51 yds , Caullin Lacy returns for 21 yds to the 30 yard line Louisville Penalty, Offensive Holding (3 Yards) to the LOU 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 9FUMBLE TD
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
26.8%
Isaac Brown fumbled, forced by Simeon Barrow Jr., recovered by MIA Raul Aguirre Jr. for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 10MISSED FG
11 plays · 41 yds · 3:1727% → 25%
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
27.1%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Chris Bell for 9 yds to the LOU 34Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+1
27.9%
Donald Chaney run for 1 yd to the LOU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
27.4%
Keyjuan Brown run for no gain to the LOU 35Similar
Q2 3:09
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+19
27.3%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Donald Chaney for 19 yds to the MIA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+18
28.8%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Chris Bell for 18 yds to the MIA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
30.0%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Isaac Brown for 2 yds to the MIA 26Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 8
OPP 26
0
30.2%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:45
3RD & 8
OPP 26
-8
27.7%
Tyler Shough sacked by Simeon Barrow Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the MIA 34Similar
Q2 1:38
4TH & 16
OPP 34
+52
25.3%
Brock Travelstead 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:3474% → 74%
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
25.7%
Damien Martinez run for no gain to the MIA 34Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 18
OWN 34
0
25.6%
Cam Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:05
3RD & 18
OWN 34
0
26.1%
Cam Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:57
4TH & 18
OWN 34
+3
26.5%
Dylan Joyce punt for 39 yds , Caullin Lacy returns for 3 yds to the LOU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 12END OF HALF
10 plays · 65 yds · 0:5126% → 33%
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
26.4%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Jamari Johnson for 12 yds to the LOU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
26.9%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Isaac Brown for 4 yds to the LOU 46Similar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 6
OWN 46
0
27.1%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:24
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+6
26.0%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Chris Bell for 6 yds to the MIA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
27.7%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+17
27.4%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 17 yds to the MIA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+26
29.5%
Duke Watson run for 26 yds to the MIA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
33.4%
Brock Travelstead 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 13TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 6:3373% → 86%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
27.5%
Damien Martinez run for 8 yds to the MIA 33Similar
Q3 14:32
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
26.6%
Damien Martinez run for 5 yds to the MIA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
26.1%
Cam Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+1
26.2%
Damien Martinez run for 1 yd to the MIA 39Similar
Q3 13:13
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+12
26.8%
Cam Ward pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 12 yds to the LOU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
25.3%
Damien Martinez run for 4 yds to the LOU 45Similar
Q3 12:19
2ND & 6
OPP 45
0
25.3%
Cam Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:09
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+7
25.6%
Cam Ward run for 7 yds to the LOU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
25.2%
Cam Ward pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 2 yds to the LOU 36Similar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+2
25.1%
Cam Ward pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 2 yds to the LOU 34Similar
Q3 9:54
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+21
25.5%
Damien Martinez run for 21 yds to the LOU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
24.4%
Cam Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+4
24.4%
Damien Martinez run for 4 yds to the LOU 9Similar
Q3 8:21
3RD & 6
OPP 9
+9
13.7%
Cam Ward pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 9 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 15FUMBLE
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
26.4%
Cam Ward pass complete to Mark Fletcher Jr. for 1 yd Mark Fletcher Jr. fumbled, forced by Thor Griffith, recovered by LOU Jordan GueradSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 16TD
3 plays · 26 yds · 0:5234% → 51%
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
34.4%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+5
34.3%
Isaac Brown run for 5 yds to the MIA 21Similar
Q3 6:59
3RD & 5
OPP 21
+21
51.1%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 21 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 17TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 3:2556% → 78%
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
43.9%
Cam Ward pass complete to Mark Fletcher Jr. for 5 yds to the MIA 30Similar
Q3 6:04
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
43.2%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 3 yds to the MIA 33Similar
Q3 5:19
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
43.7%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 1 yd to the MIA 34Similar
Q3 4:38
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+1
45.3%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 1 yd to the MIA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+63
43.8%
Cam Ward pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 63 yds to the LOU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
22.0%
Cam Ward pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 2 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 18TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 4:5129% → 58%
Q3 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
28.9%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Isaac Brown for 3 yds to the LOU 28Similar
Q3 2:42
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
29.2%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:37
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
27.6%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:10
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+14
26.6%
Duane Martin run for 14 yds to the LOU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
31.5%
Louisville Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LOU 37Similar
Q3 1:20
1ST & 15
OWN 37
+6
29.0%
Duke Watson run for 6 yds to the LOU 43Similar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+18
31.6%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 18 yds to the MIA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
31.3%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 2 yds to the MIA 37Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 37
0
31.2%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 8
OPP 37
0
30.5%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:45
4TH & 8
OPP 37
+10
27.6%
Miami Penalty, Defensive Holding (D'Yoni Hill) to the MIA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:39
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
33.1%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:34
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-5
32.9%
Louisville Penalty, Illegal Shift (-5 Yards) to the MIA 32Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 15
OPP 32
+21
30.7%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 21 yds to the MIA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+7
32.5%
Duke Watson run for 7 yds to the MIA 4Similar
Q4 13:22
2ND & 3
OPP 4
+4
57.8%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Duke Watson for 4 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 19TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 1:5353% → 82%
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
46.9%
Ajay Allen run for no gain to the MIA 20Similar
Q4 12:32
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+59
47.6%
Cam Ward pass complete to Samuel Brown for 59 yds to the LOU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+10
40.3%
Cam Ward pass complete to Jacolby George for 10 yds to the LOU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+9
40.3%
Ajay Allen run for 9 yds to the LOU 2Similar
Q4 11:17
2ND & 1
OPP 2
+2
18.4%
Ajay Allen run for 2 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:5326% → 22%
Q4 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
25.9%
Donald Chaney run for 2 yds to the LOU 27Similar
Q4 10:44
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+28
26.2%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 28 yds to the MIA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-22
31.0%
Louisville Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Tyler Shough) to the LOU 33Similar
Q4 10:33
2ND & 32
OWN 33
0
25.7%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:27
3RD & 32
OWN 33
0
22.5%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:16
4TH & 32
OWN 33
0
21.8%
Brady Hodges punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MIA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 21TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 6:0480% → 96%
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
20.3%
Ajay Allen run for 13 yds to the MIA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
18.7%
Cam Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:14
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+7
18.8%
Cam Ward pass complete to Ajay Allen for 7 yds to the MIA 40Similar
Q4 8:29
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+4
17.3%
Cam Ward pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 4 yds to the MIA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
16.6%
Damien Martinez run for no gain to the MIA 44Similar
Q4 6:57
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-7
15.8%
Cam Ward sacked by Benjamin Perry for a loss of 7 yards to the MIA 37Similar
Q4 6:07
3RD & 17
OWN 37
+22
16.2%
Cam Ward run for 22 yds to the LOU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
11.6%
Ajay Allen run for 7 yds to the LOU 34Similar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 3
OPP 34
0
11.0%
Cam Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:44
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+4
11.4%
Damien Martinez run for 4 yds to the LOU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
3.9%
Damien Martinez run for 30 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 22TD
20 plays · 77 yds · 3:004% → 24%
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
4.0%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:37
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+15
3.8%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 15 yds to the LOU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-4
3.9%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Isaac Brown for a loss of 4 yards to the LOU 34Similar
Q4 2:54
2ND & 14
OWN 34
-5
3.6%
Tyler Shough sacked by Rueben Bain Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the LOU 29Similar
Q4 2:44
3RD & 19
OWN 29
+11
3.0%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Isaac Brown for 11 yds to the LOU 40Similar
Q4 2:28
4TH & 8
OWN 40
+15
3.1%
Miami Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jadais Richard) to the MIA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-10
3.4%
Louisville Penalty, Offensive Holding (Trevonte Sylvester) to the LOU 45Similar
Q4 1:59
1ST & 20
OWN 45
+4
2.7%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 4 yds to the LOU 49Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 16
OWN 49
0
2.6%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:44
3RD & 16
OWN 49
+7
2.6%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Isaac Brown for 7 yds to the MIA 44Similar
Q4 1:38
4TH & 9
OPP 44
+12
2.5%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 12 yds to the MIA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
3.0%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+28
2.9%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 28 yds to the MIA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
3.1%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
23.6%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 4 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 23END OF GAME
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:5395% → 96%
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
5.0%
Louisville Penalty, Personal Foul (Donald Chaney) to the LOU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
4.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the LOU 46Similar
Q4 0:33
2ND & 11
OPP 46
-1
4.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the LOU 47Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 12
OPP 47
-1
4.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the LOU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:22
Tyler Shough pass complete to Duke Watson for 4 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)
+25.3
TD · Q4 11:17
Ajay Allen run for 2 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)
-21.9
TD · Q3 3:19
Cam Ward pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 2 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)
-21.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com