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Win probability · CLEM
modelCLEM aheadUVA aheadconfidence bandkey playCLEM scoreUVA score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:47 · Aidan Swanson punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Ethan Davies at the UVA 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 12:26: Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Dakota Twitty for 8 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK) — UVA win probability +3.6 pts (now 19%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:38: Phil Mafah run for 1 yd for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK) — CLEM win probability +5.6 pts (now 86%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:42: Phil Mafah run for 3 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK) — CLEM win probability +4.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:23: Cade Klubnik pass complete to Olsen Patt-Henry for 11 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK) — CLEM win probability +5.2 pts (now 93%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q4 2:11: Sackett Wood Jr. 8 Yd pass from Tony Muskett (Tony Muskett Pass to Kobe Pace for Two-Point Conversion) — UVA win probability +3.3 pts (now 4%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CLEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 6UVA made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
- Q1 13:20UVA 4th & 1 at UVA 34, tiedClose callPunted · 10.2% before the snapGo for it10.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.2%−0.1average punt
- Q1 7:56CLEM 4th & 8 at UVA 11, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.3% before the snapGo for it88.2%−0.129% to convertField goalTheir call88.3%87% to makePunt87.8%−0.5average punt
- Q1 0:53UVA 4th & 2 at CLEM 3, down 3Close callKicked a field goal · 14.0% before the snapGo for it14.0%49% to convertField goalTheir call13.7%−0.493% to makePunt12.2%−1.9average punt
- Q2 5:01UVA 4th & 25 at UVA 10, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 19.5% before the snapGo for it17.5%−1.86% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.2%average punt
- Q2 2:42UVA 4th & 8 at UVA 27, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.4% before the snapGo for it12.9%−0.533% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.4%average punt
- Q2 1:52CLEM 4th & 2 at CLEM 31, up 7Close callPunted · 85.2% before the snapGo for it85.5%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.2%−0.2average punt
- Q2 0:20UVA 4th & 12 at midfield, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.3% before the snapGo for it14.0%−0.223% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.2%average punt
- Q3 7:28UVA 4th & 5 at UVA 30, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.1% before the snapGo for it8.3%−0.341% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.5%average punt
- Q3 1:30CLEM 4th & 1 at UVA 40, up 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.3%70% to convertField goal97.6%−0.834% to makePunt97.6%−0.7average punt
- Q4 11:20CLEM 4th & 1 at UVA 46, up 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.9%70% to convertField goal98.4%−0.523% to makePunt98.6%−0.3average punt
- Q4 8:22CLEM 4th & 5 at UVA 5, up 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.0% before the snapGo for it98.9%−<0.133% to convertField goalTheir call98.9%92% to makePunt98.0%−0.9average punt
- Q4 6:53UVA 4th & 11 at UVA 24, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.6%−0.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
- Q4 4:47CLEM 4th & 4 at CLEM 29, up 24Close callPunted · 99.3% before the snapGo for it99.3%47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.3%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 6UVA made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
- Q2 12:26UVA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call19.8%97% to makeGo for two19.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:38CLEM Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call80.2%97% to makeGo for two80.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:42CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call85.4%97% to makeGo for two85.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:23CLEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.1%97% to makeGo for two92.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:31CLEM Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.1%97% to makeGo for two98.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:30CLEM Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.1%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:53UVA Touchdown, down 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call1.6%97% to makeGo for two1.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:11UVA Touchdown, down 18 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick1.4%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call1.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 1:54CLEM Touchdown, up 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 1:39UVA Touchdown, down 17 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick1.8%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call1.6%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUVADrive 1PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:338% → 8%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 2FG12 plays · 74 yds · 5:1492% → 91%
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+22
91.9%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to T.J. Moore for 22 yds to the CLEM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
91.8%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 4 yds to the CLEM 41Similar
Q1 9:39
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+31
91.2%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Cole Turner for 31 yds to the UVA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
91.1%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Antonio Williams for 1 yd to the UVA 12Similar
Q1 8:37
3RD & 9
OPP 12
-5
90.8%
(08:42) No Huddle-Shotgun Klubnik,Cade pass complete short right to Moore,T.J. caught at UVA01, for 0 yards to the UVA12 PENALTY CLEM Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Miller,Blake) 5 yards from UVA12 to UVA17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:25
3RD & 14
OPP 17
+6
90.7%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 6 yds to the UVA 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 3FG18 plays · 80 yds · 6:469% → 13%
Q1 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
90.7%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malachi Fields for 8 yds to the UVA 25Similar
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
90.2%
(06:03) No Huddle-Shotgun Colandrea,Anthony pass incomplete short left to Greene Jr.,Andre thrown to CLEM46 PENALTY CLEM Illegal Substitution 5 yards from UVA37 to UVA42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:07
1ST & 5
OWN 42
+8
89.7%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Tyler Neville for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:52
2ND & 10
50
+13
89.7%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malachi Fields for 13 yds to the CLEM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:13
4TH & 1
OPP 28
+5
89.2%
(03:13) No Huddle Colandrea,Anthony rush middle for 0 yards to the CLEM28 (Brown,Sammy; Capehart,DeMonte) PENALTY CLEM Offside 5 yards from CLEM28 to CLEM23, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:51
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+12
88.7%
(02:56) No Huddle Colandrea,Anthony sacked for loss of 9 yards to the CLEM32 (Parker,T.J.) PENALTY CLEM Face Mask (Page,Payton) 12 yards from CLEM23 to CLEM11, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 4INT4 plays · 12 yds · 0:4588% → 88%
UVADrive 5TD6 plays · 34 yds · 2:0414% → 19%
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-7
86.2%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Chris Tyree for a loss of 7 yards to the CLEM 41Similar
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
85.6%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Tyler Neville for 8 yds to the CLEM 13Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 2
OPP 13
+5
85.1%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Dakota Twitty for 5 yds to the CLEM 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
81.5%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Dakota Twitty for 8 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 6TD13 plays · 80 yds · 4:3183% → 86%
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
82.7%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Troy Stellato for 4 yds to the CLEM 24Similar
Q2 11:37
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+8
82.4%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Troy Stellato for 8 yds to the CLEM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
82.1%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Antonio Williams for 15 yds to the CLEM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
82.6%
(10:46) No Huddle-Shotgun Klubnik,Cade pass incomplete deep middle to Moore,T.J. thrown to UVA00 PENALTY UVA Pass Interference (Smith,Kendren) 15 yards from CLEM47 to UVA38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:56
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+7
82.7%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Phil Mafah for 22 yds to the UVA 11 for a 1ST down Clemson Penalty, unnecessary roughness (Jake Briningstool) to the UVA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
80.7%
Virginia Penalty, Block Below Waist (Jonas Sanker) to the UVA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 7PUNT6 plays · -15 yds · 2:2717% → 17%
Q2 6:53
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-10
82.7%
(06:59) No Huddle-Shotgun Colandrea,Anthony pass complete short left to Tyree,Chris caught at UVA26, for 8 yards to the UVA35 (Lukus,Jeadyn), out of bounds PENALTY UVA Holding (Greene Jr.,Andre) 10 yards from UVA27 to UVA17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:44
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+6
82.3%
Anthony Colandrea run for 6 yds to the UVA 11 Anthony Colandrea fumbled, recovered by UVA Anthony ColandreaSimilar
Q2 5:01
4TH & 25
OWN 10
0
82.9%
Daniel Sparks punt for 51 yds , Antonio Williams returns for no gain to the CLEM 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 8TD4 plays · 61 yds · 1:0584% → 89%
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+24
84.0%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 9 yds to the UVA 48 for a 1ST down Virginia Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Jonas Sanker) to the UVA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+34
84.6%
Antonio Williams pass complete to Troy Stellato for 34 yds to the UVA 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 9PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5513% → 12%
Q2 2:42
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+2
88.1%
Daniel Sparks punt for 52 yds , Antonio Williams returns for 2 yds to the CLEM 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:4788% → 86%
UVADrive 11PUNT12 plays · 30 yds · 1:3613% → 13%
Q2 1:45
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+13
87.2%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Chris Tyree for 13 yds to the UVA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+8
86.6%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Chris Tyree for 8 yds to the UVA 41Similar
Q2 0:46
3RD & 6
OPP 44
-6
86.5%
Anthony Colandrea sacked by T.J. Parker for a loss of 6 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+4
86.7%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to JR Wilson for 4 yds to the CLEM 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 12END OF HALF2 plays · -5 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 13TD12 plays · 90 yds · 5:2187% → 93%
Q3 14:08
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+17
87.1%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to T.J. Moore for 17 yds to the CLEM 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:14
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+28
86.8%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Antonio Williams for 28 yds to the UVA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:04
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+5
88.3%
(11:10) No Huddle-Shotgun Mafah,Phil rush middle for 6 yards loss to the UVA25 (Robinson,Kam) PENALTY UVA Offside (Bennett Jr.,Chico) 5 yards from UVA19 to UVA14, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
88.2%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 6 yds to the UVA 8Similar
Q3 9:23
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+11
93.4%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Olsen Patt-Henry for 11 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 14PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:438% → 7%
CLEMDrive 15TD8 plays · 68 yds · 2:5194% → 98%
Q3 7:12
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+1
93.7%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Troy Stellato for 1 yd to the CLEM 33Similar
Q3 6:25
3RD & 9
OWN 33
+13
93.5%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 13 yds to the CLEM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
94.2%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Troy Stellato for 9 yds to the UVA 45Similar
Q3 4:38
2ND & 5
OPP 36
0
94.4%
Virginia Penalty, intentional grounding (Xavier Brown) to the UVA 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 16FUMBLE6 plays · 24 yds · 1:272% → 2%
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+25
97.9%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Kobe Pace for 25 yds to the CLEM 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:52
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-17
97.8%
Anthony Colandrea sacked by Wade Woodaz for a loss of 17 yards to the UVA 49 Anthony Colandrea fumbled, recovered by UVA Tr Williams , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 17TD4 plays · 49 yds · 0:4298% → 100%
UVADrive 18TD6 plays · 75 yds · 1:290% → 1%
Q3 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
99.8%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Tyler Neville for 6 yds to the UVA 31 for a 1ST down Clemson Penalty, unnecessary roughness (Jahiem Lawson) to the UVA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
98.7%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malachi Fields for 44 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 19FG17 plays · 70 yds · 6:1999% → 99%
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
99.0%
(13:05) No Huddle-Shotgun Haynes,Jay rush right for 6 yards gain to the UVA49 (Sanker,Jonas) PENALTY CLEM Illegal Shift 5 yards from CLEM45 to CLEM40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:55
3RD & 11
OWN 44
+10
99.0%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Troy Stellato for 10 yds to the UVA 46Similar
Q4 11:20
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+22
99.2%
Phil Mafah run for 7 yds to the UVA 39 for a 1ST down Virginia Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Ben Smiley III) to the UVA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 20PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 1:181% → 1%
Q4 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
99.1%
Anthony Colandrea sacked by Sammy Brown for a loss of 10 yards to the UVA 15Similar
Q4 7:41
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+9
99.2%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Chris Tyree for 9 yds to the UVA 24Similar
Q4 6:53
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
99.3%
Daniel Sparks punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Antonio Williams at the CLEM 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 21PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:53100% → 100%
UVADrive 22TD10 plays · 65 yds · 2:201% → 4%
Q4 4:07
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+20
99.3%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Suderian Harrison for 20 yds to the CLEM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
99.3%
Tony Muskett pass complete to TyLyric Coleman for 8 yds to the CLEM 36Similar
Q4 3:04
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+6
99.3%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Suderian Harrison for 6 yds to the CLEM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:04
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+12
99.2%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Noah Vaughn for 12 yds to the CLEM 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:11
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+8
95.9%
Sackett Wood Jr. 8 Yd pass from Tony Muskett (Tony Muskett Pass to Kobe Pace for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 23TD4 plays · 39 yds · 0:1499% → 100%
UVADrive 24TD3 plays · 75 yds · 0:151% → 2%
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Muskett,Tony pass incomplete short middle to Coleman,TyLyric thrown to UVA35 broken up by Hampton,Ashton, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY CLEM Pass Interference (Hampton,Ashton) 10 yards from UVA25 to UVA35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+65
97.8%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Ethan Davies for 65 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 25END OF GAME4 plays · -2 yds · 1:3799% → 99%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:38
Phil Mafah run for 1 yd for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK)
+5.6
TD · Q3 9:23
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Olsen Patt-Henry for 11 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK)
+5.2
TD · Q2 3:42
Phil Mafah run for 3 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK)
+4.4